brewcrewdue80

I thought Lohse was a Fluke. But here he is once again pitching at or below 3.5ERA. This while having an increase in HRs this year. Monty while you want to argue his contract or his loss in ability, what Lohse is doing isn't unprecendented. Just look at Hiroki Kuroda. 37 and 38 aged seasons in the AL East and his ERA for they Yankees sits at 3.13 in 51Starts. If I were Arizona, or Washington I'd be right there pushing to get him. This would have followed with San Fran, and San Diego but both are now Sellers. In the AL, Texas,Cleveland, Baltimore, Yankees, Toronto are all teams that to me have every bit of reason to go out and take Lohse as a viable #3/4 in their rotations. That's the thing, Lohse is performing at a top shelf #3 pitcher. He was every bit the #2 for the Cards the last 2 years, and the questions were if he'd be a #2-3 or a 4-5 like in years past changing teams. I mean prospects like Owens or Renaudo it's that their CEILING is one of a #3 SP not Lohse pitching every bit a #3. If those 2 don't reach their ceiling they are pretty much useless to a team like Boston who can buy all the #4s and 5s they want at any time. So again, as a Franchise with a poor record of SP production, we view these arms as being of great value. But to big markets, if they aren't dealing with #1-2 ability Pitchers, these guys aren't worth a lot when they can spend the money for a "Proven #2-4" type pitcher vs. let a potential #3 get ripped apart in the AL East. I think the Lohse is worth at least 2 B prospects and a C in trade from organizations like Washington,Texas,Boston,NYY, and even Toronto. I'm on the fence for Arizona/Baltimore. and Cleveland, I think they take Lohse for the 2Bs and 1 C prospect if money is included. What Lohse isn't going to get is an A prospect....At least I wouldn't think so, but Dickey got D'Arnaud/Syndergaard. I love the fact Feldman failed in his last start for Baltimore. I think these Fringeish #4s/5s that are pitching like 3s this season will be frowned upon with every start Feldman fails with Baltimore. Making a Stong #3 like Lohse much more Desirable. Melvin Needs to...Read Must....trade at least 1 of Lohse/Gallardo before this year's deadline. Let's look at it between Gallardo/Lohse. Gallardo is owed more money the next 2 years(assuming Milwaukee takes on the deferred amount they owe Lohse for this year) And Lohse has the better last 2 seasons history and this year going for him. The only negative is age really. So, as 'Stache said to begin the topic, if I had to trade for either of the two, my target would be on Lohse, not Gallardo.

just in CF.. Adam Jones Jacoby Ellsbury Andrew McCutchen Shin-Soo Choo Brett Gardner Colby Rasmus Mike Trout (57 gms in CF this year) Yes but when taken in to NL count that is McCutchen and Choo only. McCutchen won it last season. Kemp before. Then before the at his position change there were Carlos Gonzalez/Michael Bourn. So looks like Gomez is strictly up against McCutchen in the NL. Current ESPN DFWAR at CF: Gomez 2.6 Geraldo Parra 1.4 Logan Schafer 1.3 Starling Marte 1.3 McCutchen 1.2 AJ Pollock 1.2 Gregor Polanco 1.1 Deeper only Pollock,McCutchen and Gomez have played over 50games in CF. So it's strictly between Gomez and McCutchen

What about taking Webster and Owens with MiddleBrooks? Or tabbing Renaudo and Middlebrooks with Webster or Owens? I just think I'd rather take 2 SPs over 1SP...one that has some poor numbers in AA. I'm not a fan of seeing a Prospect Pitcher who allows over 10hits per 9Innings. Meanwhile Renaudo allows just 6 per 9. Let them keep that (#1 Pitching prospect in their system) and tab the next 2 in line. They'll think the fanbase will appreciate keeping their best pitching prospect while getting Lohse. Best case would be Owens and Renaudo with Middlebrooks. I like the idea of getting Middlebrooks for ARam as ARam's contract should expire in time to give up 3b to Cecchini. Now we just have to sell it to them in the same manner.

WTG WILY!!!!!! CG SH! Amazing vs. Cinncy! That's a lot of tough outs!

Going to see the 9th too with this AB by him. CG come on Wily!

This is borderline CG ability here for Wily 81pitches through 7ip. Looking back at this moment it would be 15hits allowed in Peralta's last 24.1 IP. That is promising.

Texas Rangers. What would they offer for Aoki? Nelson Cruz is on that list for Suspension. His bat would be a big hole to fill. With Murphy struggling. These are two players that the Rangers are left with a decision to either keep or let go to Free Agency I'm thinking the Rangers make a move at Aoki. Cheap and a safety net if they cut ties with both Murphy and Cruz. It would be a great outcome with their bevy of talent. SP? Perez/Jackson/Ramirez/Edwards/Asher Or covering the bases: 1b Ronald Guzman 2b Roughned Odor SS Luis Sardinas 3b Mike Olt/Joey Gallo I think any combo of 2 of them for Aoki would be good for both sides.

BREWERS RIGHTFIELDER NORICHIKA AOKI WAS SCRATCHED FROM THE STARTING LINEUP DUE TO LEFT ELBOW TIGHTNESS From espn's box score page.

Gallardo's Projected Starts: 11 @Ari 19 Mia 24 SDP 29 @CHC The Brewers have a Double Header the 30th vs Chi. Could lead to a very crazy Rotation should a team that wants Gallardo for an added start the 29th trade for him after the 24th. It is a decent 4 teams to have to pitch against when it comes to Run scoring offenses. 14/30/15/ and 17th rankings at the moment. So there's hope that Gallardo even at average stuff comes away with enough "good outings" to make a team commit to take him in Trade. Oh Crew, remember Gallardo has Red Sox,Yanks,Orioles,Blue Jays,Indians,Tigers,Astros,Angels,Phillies,Pirates on his no trade list. Something to have to work by in the Cleveland or Red Sox trade.

BRef and the Pythagorean for 2011 had the Brewers at 90Wins. 2011 Bullpen had 2 Pitchers with an ERA over 4 (both 4.08) who pitched over 25innings. That bullpen was lights out that year and it corresponded with a record better than expected. 2012 Pythagorean had the team at 85wins. The Bullpen had ONLY 2 pitchers with an ERA Under 4 who pitched over 25innings. Look at Baltimore last year. Pythagorean had them as an 82win team. They won 93. The Bullpen was filled with guys under 3ERA. You add Manny Machado(5WAR now) vs. Betemit (.8WAR). Davis(4.1WAR now) vs. Reynolds(-.5WAR). That would mean Baltimore in theory with replacing our SS/3b situation to their 3b/1b situation should win 102+games this year no? Baltimore once again is getting under 4ERA from their RPs. and are 2games better than Pythagorean suggests. I'm just not following the Brewers in 2012 being a 100win team because they were a 96win team last year as nobody will suggest Baltimore is a 102win team this year since they won 93games last season with replacement level 1b/3b that now have AllStars starting at. Pitching is where a team can have luck help them overachieve. Look at Washington this year. Last year lights out best team in NL. this year? Storen,Haren, and Detwiler stuggle compared to expectations from last season. The 2011 team had the best pitching performances they could ask for from Wolf,Grienke,Marcum, and Axford. Maybe Wolf,Axford,Marcum survived on luck and health and being in a peak ability for a period of their life. They exceeded their talent for 1 season. For Wolf and Axford they underachieved on their talent in 2012. Grienke met it again. Marcum wasn't healthy. 2011 was a year when everything went right which is how I view Washington's 2012. Washington has as good or better talent on the 2013 roster compared to 2012 but they certainly aren't looking like they will win as many games as 2012.

Well what about Kieran Lovegrove? 18yr old 6'4" only 185 currently. Projectable frame, seems like a project but when it comes to any other prospect after Bauer/Lindor or Salazar he's probably the 4th ranked guy to target. MLB's take on him: The Indians went high upside with this SoCal high school product. Lovegrove has the chance to have a pretty electric three-pitch mix from a tall and projectable frame, if it all comes together. He’ll flash a fastball up to 94 mph at times to go along with a nasty slider and a curve that has the chance to be an average offering down the road. He has a feel for a changeup as well, though he needs to show more consistency with all three pitches as he moves on in his professional career. Lovegrove has used a fairly unorthodox delivery in the past, and if he can clean that up, he has all the raw tools to be an exciting starting pitcher in the future and Scouting Book: A high school pitcher drafted by the Indians in 2012, righthander Kieran Lovegrove is a promising player, though he's a long way away from the major leagues. Lovegrove's been clocked in the 90mph range with some recorded 96mph events, which explains how he struck out 93 in 77 high school innings. He hasn't needed anything other than a fastball and a so-so slider so far, so stay patient while he tries to develop the better breaking balls and off-speed stuff necessary for MLB success. I'd think that with Bauer he has to be included as a sorta secondary potential success as Bauer has the makings of complete bust with his Walks. Still not a good trading partner personally. Unless it's Lindor in trade.

Been Quiet the past 4-5 days on TradeRumors and Milwaukee. I don't really see much of interest being chimed in. I'm surprised KRod isn't getting more attention. 9-9 in save chances now. Still listing Weeks and ARam as both the 2nd best at their position for Starters to acquire. But not seeing any team linked to pursuing them. I understand with ARam the injury and his money owed. The biggest shame in all of this is that a healthy Corey Hart may have been the most coveted player in trade for the Yankees. Still quiet for Aoki. Giants went out and signed Jeff Francouer as their OF solution. Just anxious for this to heat up with rumors, and it was a week ago with LAD and 3b or Arz. and Gallardo. But both seem to have lost interest. Where's a Lohse rumor? I almost feel like Juan Francisco may turn out as the biggest player the Brewers trade for a return around the deadline if he keeps hitting well and ARam isn't able to be moved thus leaving him w/o a real position to call home for next year.

Does the Packers/Seahawks game count?

Well Skeets I'd also draft the Best on draftboard Pitcher from the HS ranks. I didn't say it because I was rebutting my Pujols vs. Sabathia comment. A Batter vs. a Pitcher. Guess what I'm getting at is if the College Pitchers, Rodon/Beede are off the board, history would indicate time to avert attention to a HS player rather than the next best College arm. You look at that 10year list and it's Price,Verlander, and Strasburg as the only true Aces to be drafted out of College with the top 5 College arm selections. Though I could give Pryor some credit if injuries hadn't derailed his career. So if an Ace/Frontline Starter is what you are looking for there are 4 in 50 College Draft selections in that 10year span. The argument is that just having a top 3 pick doesn't mean it Has to be used on a College Arm as you are championing for.

I haven't really seen the mentioning of this but what about Gallardo's mom passing away having the impact? I read she was a big part of Baseball for Yovani, and maybe mentally to begin the season and going on through it, her not being there to talk to has affected Yo. He could be adjusting to life without her and not doing well. the DUI for instance. Remember too that no longer traveling with him on the team is Grienke,Wolf,Marcum,Narveson, and to an extent Fiers/Estrada. Bullpen guys of Axford/KRod are all that remain. So Yo who's gone through this event in his life, isn't traveling with Pitchers that in the past may have helped him let out his emotions to. To be able to talk it out with the guys he's hung out with over the last year or more. I have a belief that could be a part of his struggles this season. His mom passes away at the start of the offseason, he doesn't keep himself in game shape in offseason workouts, coping with his loss, and his emotional confidants just aren't there for added support face to face. Just a thought when trying to put myself in Yo's situation this offseason and how I may have coped and dealt with it. I could definitely see myself not fully committed to Baseball under those circumstances. Especially with the added loss of friends.

Maybe I should have said Ryan Braun or C.C. Sabathia? I know Pujols was a very late round pick. It was more in line with if a player projects to potentially be a 40HR/.330 BA guy for 10 years or a Pitcher who gives you 195-230IP at 3.5ERA Which do you pick? Sabathia was probably a poor pick in this argument not realizing he's been Felix Hernandez like with IP throughout his career and a lower ERA than I thought. 2000-2009 top 5 College pitcher selected WAR. 00: Adam Johnson -1.1, Justin Wayne -1.5, Beau Hayle 0 Games, Billy Traber -.7, and Ben Diggins -.7 0 for 5 01: Mark Pryor 16.5, Dewon Brazelton -3, Josh Karp 0 Games, Chris Smith 0 Games, John Van Benschoten -3.5 1 for 5 02: Bryan Bullington -.2, Jeff Francis 10.2, Joe Saunders 11.2, Royce Ring -.9, Jeremy Guthrie 17.7 3 for 5 03: Kyle Sleeth 0 Games, Tim Stauffer 3.5, Paul Maholm 13.7, Ryan Wagner -.3, Chad Cordero 7.5 2 for 5 04: Justin Verlander 38.1, Philip Humber 1.2, Jeff Nieman 4.1, Jeremy Sowers 1.6, Wade Townsend(unsigned) 0 Games 2 for 5 05: Ricky Romero 9.8, Wade Townsend 0 Games, Mike Pelfry 4.9, Lance Broadway .3, Cesar Carillo -.7 2 for 5 06: Luke Hochever 1.3, Greg Reynolds -1.3, Brad Lincoln .5, Brandon Morros 7.6, Andrew Miller -2.7, 1 for 5 07: David Price 15.7, Daniel Moskos .2, Ross Detwiler 2.5, Casey Weathers 0 games, Joe Savory -.1 1.5 for 5 08: Brian Matusz 1.8, Aaron Crow 2.8(unsigned), Andrew Cashner 1.4, Josh Fields -.1, Ryan Perry .3 call it 2 for 5 09: Stephen Strasburg 8.4, Mike Minor 2.1, Mike Leake 6.6, Drew Storen 2.2, Aaron Crow 2.8 5 for 5 That's 20.5 effective College picked Pitchers out of 50 top 5 college draft selections. 40% basically. And the WAR Goes: 38.1 17.7 16.5 15.7 13.7 11.2 10.2 9.8 8.4 7.6 7.5 6.6 4.9 4.1 And giving half credit for 2.5 Detwiler for future gains on WAR. Full credit each on 1.8 and 1.4 for future gains on Matusz/Cashner 2.1, 2.2, and 2.8 for Minor, Storen and Crow future Gains. Didn't make my list if under 4WAR career otherwise. If Rodon/Beede/Burdi are the best College pitchers to select from it's not a good sign based on history there's already doubts about them for them to come away as 4+ Career WAR contributors if we select one of them. That's what amazes me the Brewers took both Jungmann and Bradley and not 1 HS pitcher considering Jungmann and Bradley were the 4th/5th college pitchers to be selected. Hasn't history shown the poor draft results after the first 3 college pitchers taken? In those 10years only 2 had a WAR above 4. I'll take the Best HS Bat available vs. drafting the 2nd/3rd/ or 4th considered best College Pitcher available if we can draft the best one.

Bundy was off the board by the time the Brewers made their selections As were, Hultzen,Bauer,Bradley and Cole. Our Bradley at 23 in A+ ball is not only the old among all these promising pitchers but the furthest behind to even make the ML Team. Jungmann does offer a silver lining, this is true, but it's in terms of a #3/4 SP whereas these others listed are #2s/3s. So the way I look at it, is Jungmann likely has a 4-6year career on the Team vs. having a Gallardo like 6+ with these other pitchers beyond 6year team control with an extension. Or, at the very least bringing back some kind of Prospects in replacement in trade. If Jungmann is a 4+ type pitcher he's certainly not going to leave with making the organization's future better when dealt in a trade.

I could imagine this stemming from his recent success, the Cubs lack of Pitching coming up in their minors, and possibly entertaining the idea of trading away Samardzija instead. You'd think Jeff Samz. becomes the prize Pitcher in the market then and he has a lot more value than Garza to ask in return for prospects. Remember the DBacks had interest in him? Maybe their offer has increased to where Chicago can't really justify passing it up if they can instead just sign Garza? On a side note MLBTR is stating the Cubs are the front runners for Jen Ho-Tseng in the international signing an 18yr old SP from Taiwan. You wonder how quickly he could advance in the minors with his international experience. Would put the Cubs at Jackson,Garza,(Skaggs),Tseng in the near-to future of pitching. It'll be interesting to see how this pans out. I will say that a Garza signing likely makes Lohse a more sought after Pitcher since the FA market isn't to be that strong for pitching and rather than teams looking at Garza are now capable of changing plans and consider Lohse. Gallardo's value is still rather suspect. There's no real underlying stat that could show a promising turnaround. No lower HR/Rate, Higher K Rate/Lower BB Rate/ Allowing less hits, more efficient with pitches....nothing gleams a turnaround now and next season with a little better luck.

Maybe this has use here, maybe it doesn't? But Baseball America updated their top 50 prospects list. (No Brewer included of course) http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-prospect-update-top-50-prospects/ Astros have 5. Cardinals 4. Reds 2. Cubs 3. Pirates 3. Pretty Lucky the Astros went to the AL. As it stands 24% of top 50 reside in our division out of 14% of teams in baseball. Archie Bradley moved to 6th(showcasing how he's untouchable in trade) Skaggs now ranks 14th. In trying to look at Prospects on the rise with Buyers, Red Sox have:Bogaerts(4th),Bradley(21),Ranaudo(37),Cecchini(41) Dodgers:Pederson(35th) And really no-one else stands to me as being trade bait for Milwaukee to look at acquiring. The list does show the hauntings of 2011 Draft selections even moreso for pitching as Fernandez already in bigs, Alex Meyer(32nd),Taylor Guerrieri(29),Robert Stephenson(27),Kyle Crick(49) all were available to pick vs. selecting Jungmann/Bradley. It was almost a cant miss 1st round Pitching draft and the Brewers missed on both selections with Henry Owens, Matt Barnes,Sonny Gray, Joe Ross, Andrew Chafin all looking to end up being very useful selections for their teams soon also selected after Bradley in the 1st round. It's a thing of what if? Fernandez and any 1 of Guerrieri/Stephenson/Meyer/Ross selections could have the Brewers future looking?

I wouldn't take this stance. If the next potential Albert Pujols was there or the next C.C. Sabathia. What would you rather have in your system? I think with a top 5 pick coming the team really can't go all too wrong. For one the individual selected can't really command a crazy price or decline thinking there's a better payday 1-3years from now. So with a top 5 pick the team needs to try to pick the BPAvailable. Let's say Rodon/Beede are selected. We have the 3rd pick. There's Jackson/Gatewood available or Toussaint. Under current accounts, Jackson seems to have the highest upside that would be passed over because of a Talented SP to fill the team's need? With the top 7 picks I think it's safe to say the BPA needs to be done. When you get to 8-15, BPA would be great but signability becomes an issue. I stated in some other thread, it's like half the money for an 8th pick vs. a 5th pick. and by the time you get to 12 it's about 1/4+ the money vs. a top 5. So a kid in HS with top talent that believes he's a top 5 pick in the future just may forego signing to see the 1million+ added by becoming a top 5 pick vs. 8 on down. This is why I'm hoping Milwaukee ends up with a top 5 pick because I think signability isn't a problem.

The idea of trading with the Padres, should be over. 9games Under .500 after 9 straight losses. They need more than 1 pitcher to get them to be competitive with Playoff teams. I would say they've crossed that line from Buyers in to sellers now.

When does Gorzellany just slot in as a SP? Has he had a bad Start for the yet?

It's very doubtful Dunn can push his name in to the HOF with his overall numbers. I mean he's not hitting .200 over the last 3 seasons. It's wishful thinking he can continue being a 40HR guy for a team over the next 3-5 seasons. He's aging, and his BA sits below .200 for the last 3 seasons, who's to say it doesn't become .165 over the next 3 seasons? As JimH posted he's a career .238 hitter and it's declining. So he may reach 550HRs but be a .224 hitter when it's all said and Dunn. Can you really put a Player in the HOF who's batting closer to the Mendoza line? I doubt he'll even reach 2,000 hits. So, we'd be looking at a player with 1800 hits in the HOF batting .225 but he had 550 HRs? If Dunn didn't hit 40HRs, if he hit 25-30, do you think he'd even be on a ML roster? His highest RBI single season total is 106. For a guy who hits 40HRs a season that phenomenally low to not have some random 130-140RBI season. It doesn't show he was exceptional in the clutch. Pretty amazing really to look at his splits and essentially he's a .224-.238 BA with Men on or in the Clutch. Exactly on tap for his Career BA. 16.5 career WAR doesn't bode well for him either. -2WAR every season on average defensively. The "Eye Test" with numbers show nothing that should make him considered a HOF candidate. In a different ERA before SOs were deemed okay, he wouldn't have stayed on a team with his numbers. He Can't Hit! But when he does he hits HRs. I just can't see him getting in the HOF because he strictly was one of the "Most consistent HR hitting over his nothing else special Career" All those HRs but he never Once lead his League in them in any 1 season. If you are going to go in to the HOF because of your ability to hit HRs. You had better have a few seasons of leading your League in HRs hit. Dunn hasn't done that.

Hellweg is just as likely to become a reliever as Thornburg is. How dense are you? This really isn't that hard. 1. Hellweg goes down to Nashville and continues to start. 2. Thornburg, who is in the bullpen takes the starting spot that was occupied by Hellweg. 3. A reliever (Jesus Sanchez for example) is called up to take Hellweg's spot on the roster and Thornburg's spot in the bullpen. Really not that difficult. Okay here's the thing. Thornburg is a long RP/SP in your mind. Hellweg is a SP. Your scenario of Sanchez coming up to be a RP removes the long RP role Thornburg occupies. One that Figaro had before Burgos/Estrada's injuries with Gorzo/Hand. I don't know if Sanchez is a long RP but the team at this point is short on those. This is what I couldn't say but explains the RP role vs. the SP role. Hellweg sits 94-96MPH with 97-100MPH reach back ability as a SP. I don't know what Thornburg sits at but generally speaking, I remember RPs when talked about being RPs vs. SP it's that they gain 2-4MPH on their Fastball and because generally they don't have a great 3rd pitch. The added FB speed with only the secondary pitch plays up enough for an IP or 2 at a time but not when seeing the lineup a 2nd/3rd time through. Remember Aroldis Chapman being a SP for Cinncy this year? His FB went from 98-101 as a RP to him I recall only sitting at 93-94 with it as a Starter. Huge drop off and thus his return back to being a closer. Hellweg's Fastball is a Plus. Plus/Plus I guess since he can touch 100 with it. This even as a Starter. There will be many bats that won't keep up with it. He develops control with the ability to showcase a secondary pitch, that is what gets him in to the thoughts of being a #2 SP Ceiling. I'm not trying to be dense on the situation it's just look at the options? Take a look at Wade Davis. SP vs. RP. His FB speed increased 2-3MPH and he was lights out last year as a RP. KC meanwhile is using him as a SP and look at him something like a 5ERA vs. a sub 3ERA RP. That's probably what Thornburg is RP vs. SP. with the projections between the two.

Each start that Lohse has where his ERA remains below 3.5 and the closer to 3 he gets it will definitely make him a hot commodity. I hope the team can come away with some kind of 1st round player kind of talent that suddenly makes the signing worthwhile for Milwaukee. As MLBTR stated, the Free Agent class for pitching isn't filled with real solid pitchers. And a team would be looking at 3-4year deals where Lohse is just a 2year guy signed below market value. Can he continue pitching to that value or better? That's the question, but so far Lohse clearly has earned the money he's making.