sveumrules

Looks like Jared Koenig worked a scoreless fifth inning for the Sounds as well in his second rehab appearance. 15 pitches, 11 for strikes.

When this was posted before the games on May 7th the Cubs had a 25 W - 12 L record good or a 3.5 game lead in the division. Their team 123 wRC+ was 2nd in MLB and their 5.41 R/G was tied for 2nd/3rd. Here is a quick rundown of how the above quoted players have performed since then... PCA career: 99 wRC+ thru 0506: 97 wRC+ since 0506: 117 wRC+ Dansby 2023-25: 101 wRC+ thru 0506: 102 wRC+ since 0506: 39 wRC+ Bregman 2023-25: 122 wRC+ thru 0506: 98 wRC+ since 0506: 103 wRC+ Busch 2024-25: 129 wRC+ thru 0506: 104 wRC+ since 0506: 144 wRC+ [of the four guys who were either around or below their recent performances PCA and Busch have seen improvement, Bregman stayed about the same, and Dansby has been brutal] Hoerner 2021-25: 106 wRC+ thru 0506: 129 wRC+ since 0506: 54 wRC+ Happ 2021-25: 117 wRC+ thru 0506: 149 wRC+ since 0506: 106 wRC+ Suzuki 2022-25: 127 wRC+ thru 0506: 160 wRC+ since 0506: 48 wRC+ Kelly 2025: 115 wRC+ thru 0506: 140 wRC+ since 0506: 88 wRC+ Conforto 2021-25: 99 wRC+ thru 0506: 160 wRC+ since 0506: 146 wRC+ Ballesteros thru 0506: 153 wRC+ since 0506: -10 wRC+ Shaw thru 0506: 120 wRC+ since 0506: -52 wRC+ [meanwhile, of the seven guys who were performing well above their recent performance only Conforto has been able to maintain his hot start with Suzuki, Happ, Ballesteros, and Shaw all crashing particularly hard] It probably also hasn't helped that they went from a 3.85 ERA | 3.99 xERA | 4.07 FIP thru 0506 to a 4.73 ERA | 5.00 xERA | 5.07 FIP since then.

There are a couple things (besides the Angels undeniable incompetence) that limited Trout/Ohtani from having more success. The first was that it took Ohtani awhile to get going. From 2018 to 2020 while Trout was the best player in baseball with 1449 PA of 179 wRC+ for 19.4 WAR, Shohei was still figuring it out with 967 PA of 124 wRC+ for 4.3 WAR hitting plus 53 IP of 102 ERA- | 90 FIP- for 0.9 WAR on the mound. Then the injuries started for Trout with only 241 PA in 2021 while Ohtani was having his first breakout season notching 8.9 combined WAR. Trout bounced back for his last good season in 2022 with 499 PA of 176 wRC+ for 6.0 WAR while Ohtani registered another 9.8 combined WAR. Shohei followed up with 10.4 combined WAR in his walk year, but Trout was hurt again with only 362 PA. So of their six years together Ohtani wasn't OHTANI yet for the first three, then Trout was mostly injured once Shohei started his run of dominance.

But what happens when we trade for CJ Abrams and still lose to the Dodgers because they are like five CJ Abramses better than us? Current WS Odds on FanGraphs & PECOTA are 3.8 to 5.4% for the Brewers versus 22.4 to 23.3% for the Dodgers. They could probably give us Ohtani for free and still have better World Series odds. The Dodgers won 91 more games than the next best team from 2013 to 2023 and won zero full season World Series. It took them until the eleventh full season of their run to finally breakthrough after 162 games. The Yankees have the second most wins in MLB since 2010 and have been to one World Series in that time. When it takes the two franchises with more built in advantages than anyone else over a decade to win (or lose in the Yankees case) a World Series why would I complain that the Brewers haven’t done it yet over their eight year run going back to 2018? Realistically this year will only be the third sesson of their run with most of the current group under Murphy.

FanGraphs flipped from favoring the Cubs for the Division to favoring the Brewers for the Division during our three game sweep of them last week. Looks like PECOTA over at BPro has almost gotten there too at a current projection of 88.7 W | 45.3 Div% for Chicago and 88.6 W | 43.8 Div% for Milwaukee

On April 25th the Pirates beat the Brewers 6 to 3 in ten innings dropping Milwaukee to a season worst 13 W - 13 L and fifth place in the NLC, 4.5 games behind the Reds in first place. Since then? The Brewers 19 W - 7 L record is tied with TBR for the best in MLB with PHI (19 W - 9 L) and ATL (18 W - 9 L) the only other teams losing fewer than eleven games over that stretch. They currently have a 3.5 game lead on the rest of the NLC. Here are some of their MLB best pitching marks during this stretch with second place in parentheses following... 2.41 ERA (TBR 2.43) 2.68 FIP (PHI 3.03) 2.74 xERA (PHI 3.23) 29.5 K% (PHI 26.4) 0.50 HR9 (NYY 0.73) .187 AVG (ATL .197) 1.05 WHIP (LAD 1.10) 7.7 rWAR (PHI 6.8) 6.2 fWAR (PHI 5.9) All told the pitching staff has allowed three or fewer runs in 20 of these last 26 games. The position players come in with a 108 wRC+ (5th) scoring 5.0 R/G (3rd) despite only hitting 18 HR (30th) and posting a .120 isolated slugging (28th). Their +2.14 Win Probability Added and 2.08 Clutch Score are both best in MLB over these last 26 games. Those bottom line results aren't too far off what the Brewers posted for the whole 2025 season with a 107 wRC+ (9th) and 4.98 R/G (3rd).

Sounds currently ahead 5 to 4 heading to bottom eight. Jett Williams (BBx2 | SB), Cooper Pratt (1Bx2 | BB), Luis Lara (1Bx3), Luis Matos (1B | BB), Akil Baddoo (1B | BB), and Tyler Black (2B | BBx2 | SB) with busy nights in the box so far and Pratt set to lead off in the 8th. Rob Z with an eleven pitch 3U3D1K inning.

Wisco is rain delayed bottom of seven trailing 5 to 2 with solo shots from Andrew Fischer (who also singled & walked) and Marco Dinges accounting for the two runs.

Wilson puts up a 4 to 1 victory. Brady Ebel stays hot with a pair of doubles, Juan Ortuno doubled up on both singles and walks, while Pedro Ibarguen went deep for the third time this year. Rylan Mills also doubled (and struck out three times). Tyler Renz bounced back from two HR and four ER his last time out to put up five scoreless frames (4 H | 2 BB | 6 K).

Since Murphy took over in 2024 the Brewers have scored the 4th most runs in MLB despite being 24th in home runs. Going back to May 18th of last year the Brewers have scored thee most runs in MLB despite being 27th in home runs. You don't think Murphy is getting the most out of his mostly powerless lineup? There's a lot more room for downward mobility than upward from where they're sitting. Chourio has a 128 wRC+ over 528 PA batting second in his career (his most PA of any lineup spot). How is that not a two?

Yeah, that would be pretty stupid. He has eight starts and 33 PA against RHP already though so that’s not what they are doing. Vaughn also has a 429/555/571 line over his nine pinch hit PA since joining the Brewers, so he could still make an impact if the Cards bring in a lefty reliever later in the game.

It's not that you can't do anything about Sal, it's that he's a guy who from 2023 to 2025 put up 6.4 WAR ranking 29th among all outfielders. That kind of past performance, coupled with whatever intangibles / leadership role he has on the team is gonna buy him more than 51 games. Especially when the team is playing so well despite his struggles. Small sample of only 46 PA against LHP, but Bauers has a 119 wRC+ versus southpaws so far this year. Missing two of their best RHP for half the year (plus Yelich who had a fine 109 wRC+ vs LHP from 2024-25) and they've still managed an 11 W - 5 L against LHP this year. If they were getting owned by LHP there might be more urgency but that hasn't been a problem so far. The Brewers aren't going to add Lara to the 40 Man, start his service clock, then possibly burn an option year down the road just to see what he's got for a couple few weeks until Lockridge is ready to return. Are you really losing anything or doing any harm? The Brewers are on an 18 W - 7 L run that is 2nd best in MLB over that stretch, there is a lot more downward mobility from there than there is upward. Injuries to Chourio, Vaughn, Yelich, Priester, Woodruff, Koenig...plus Megill, Uribe, Zerpa combining for a 5.81 ERA and six losses in their 48 IP...plus getting -39.6 batting runs from Matos, Hamilton, Jones, Ortiz, Frelick, Perkins, Rengifo...and the Brewers are playing at a 98-99 win pace, with a 2.5 game lead on the best division in baseball, scoring the 4th most and allowing the 4th fewest runs per game for a +71 run differential that is 3rd in MLB and one of only four teams even above +40. The Brewers will likely play worse from here on out no matter what they do. I don't think anyone believes they are a true talent 98-99 win team like they are currently on pace for, a true talent 105 win team like their Pythag would imply over 162 games, and they definitely aren't a .720 W% team like they have played over their last 25 games, that's 2001 Mariners territory. But that performance as a team to this point, especially considering all the obstacles they have faced to get there, buys them more time to be patient in their movements, let the kids develop and call them up when the front office thinks they are ready (unless injury dictates otherwise in the interim) instead of calling them up hoping to improve on an already rolling team.

Pratt thru 0423 (75 PA) 156/270/172 (30 wRC+) Pratt since 0423 (115 PA) 280/404/527 (145 wRC+) Jett thru 0423 (103 PA) 186/320/256 (65 wRC+) Jett since 0423 (119 PA) 300/403/520 (144 wRC+) No doubt the Pratt and Jett have been much improved over the last month, but it's still just a month and a little over a hundred PA for each of them. Am guessing the Brewers are going to want to see them have a little more sustained success (& Super Two to pass for Jett) before giving either the call. Lara has obviously been performing all year but between Mitchell's upside & needing PA after missing so much time, Sal being an integral part of the the last three Division Champion teams, Lockridge performing capably as a 4th OF since his acquisition, and Bauers getting more OF time as his bat has taken off, it was always going to be a longer runway to regular PT for Luis. As far as it costing us a few games already, the Brewers 18 W - 7 L record is the second best in MLB going back to April 26th behind only the Rays at 19 W - 6 L. The extent to which Rengifo, Hamilton, Ortiz, Perkins, Frelick have actually been costing them, and the theoretical immediate boost we'd get from Jett, Pratt, Lara, or Leonard making their MLB debuts with limited track records of AAA success under their respective belts are probably being overstated in both directions.

After today Brewers starting pitchers are at a 3.13 ERA with 87 ER allowed over 250 IP. Misio and Harrison have combined for 22 ER over their 109.2 IP shaking out to a 1.81 ERA with the Brewers going 13 W - 7 L in their starts. Sproat (37.1 IP | 24 ER), Woodruff (30.0 IP | 12 ER), Patrick (24.1 IP | 8 ER), Henderson (23 IP | 7 ER), and Crow (10.1 IP | 3 ER) have combined for 54 ER over 125 IP in their starts shaking out to a 3.89 ERA that would rank 8th among MLB rotations on its own before subtracting out every other team's two best starters. The Brewers have combined to go 18 W - 8 L in their starts which would be a 112 win pace over 162 games. Not too many teams have SP3 through SP7 that can hang with those kind of results. What has really killed the rotation's results are the three starts by Gasser (8.1 IP | 6 ER) and Drohan (2.2 IP | 3 ER) plus the two opener games with Ashby (2.1 IP | 2 ER) and Hall (2.0 IP | 0 ER) where the Brewers went 0 W - 5 L with a 6.46 ERA.

Miz is currently at 100 K in 64 IP. Let's just extrapolate for fun and say he would hit 300 K at 192 IP or thereabouts. Looks like there have been 34 individual seasons of 300 or more strikeouts going back to Bob Feller in 1946. Some of the lower IP totals belong to 2019 Gerrit Cole (212.1 IP | 326 K), 1999 Pedro (213.1 IP | 313 K), and 2017 Chris Sale (214.1 IP | 308 K).

With the off day for the four non-Complex affiliates today thought it might be a good time to check in on how each team is doing relative to their competition. Wilson Wardbirds (23 W - 22 L) - Both the Wilson hitters (19.5) and pitchers (20.4) remain the youngest in the league per BRef, by almost a full year on the pitching side. - Despite a .684 OPS that is 12th in the 12 team league, the Warbirds 5.09 R/G are sixth, while their 276 walks are second. - Pitchers have allowed a 4.68 ERA that ranks eighth. Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (23 W - 18 L) - Both the Wisconsin hitters (21.5) and pitchers (21.9) remain the youngest in the league per BRef. - TRats are getting it done in the box with an .818 OPS that tops the twelve team league while scoring 6.27 R/G which comes in third. - Pitchers have allowed a 7.28 ERA with a 1.47 K/BB ratio, both of which are worst in the league. Biloxi Shuckers (22 W - 21 L) - Biloxi hitters are tied for youngest in the league (23.4) while the pitchers (23.0) are the youngest in the league, again by almost a full year. - Shuckers top the league with a .782 OPS, 5.95 R/G, and 234 BB. Their 379 strikeouts are fewest in the eight team league. - Pitchers sitting in sixth with a 5.50 ERA. Nashville Sounds (30 W - 21 L) - Sounds batters are youngest in the league (24.1) while the pitchers (27.3) are closer to the 27.4 average age for International League hurlers. - Offense has been a tick below average at .751 OPS and 5.06 R/G compared to league averages of .760 OPS and 5.13 R/G. - Pitchers 4.10 ERA is third lowest in the 20 team league, while their 2.23 K/BB is fourth best, and their 0.69 HR9 is thee lowest so far. All told, given the youth of all the teams in general, the especially slow start by the Wilson bats, plus the pitching struggles outside of Nashville, and all four teams being on the right side of .500 after forty fifty some games is pretty impressive.

Yeah, if I had to bet on one of them catching 50 games in an MLB season I’d probably go with Wood (most well rounded) Rodriguez (already in AAA and has raked last two years albeit in a small sample) then Miller (worst defender but power explosion this year at least raises an eyebrow)

No doubt, his wRC+ at 1B has gone from 64 to 112 to 137 now year over year. Mostly thought it was interesting for all the IGT consternation about Bauers playing OF in 2024 and 2025 before he started hitting at the end of the season that the Brewers haven't really suffered much with him out there. Also that he'd managed to do well as a PH/DH despite the penalties typically associated with those roles. Just another data point that who is in or out of the lineup and batting in which spot whether on account of match up, regular rest, minor injury maintenance, or whatever other reason we aren't privy to is largely inconsequential (or at least far less consequential than it is made out to be by many). Especially so considering how much emphasis the Brewers put on having quality depth.

Nothing specific to tonight's games necessarily, but was scrolling some leaderboards and just wanted to post up some recent numbers from a trio of upper level backstops who do a good job exemplifying the depth-centric approach of the organization. 2025-26 Ramon Rodriguez (183 PA in AA/AAA) 331/429/437 (147 wRC+) 10.4 BB% | 11.5 K% 2025-26 Matthew Wood (368 PA in AA) 252/380/433 (133 wRC+) 15.5 BB% | 12.2 K% 2024-26 Darrien Miller (828 PA in AA) 213/399/345 (128 wRC+) 17.1 BB% | 22.6 K% Now none of these three has had much success controlling the running game at 22.1 CS% (Wood), 19.0 CS% (Rodriguez), and 17.1 CS% (Miller) over the stated time frames, but to get that kind of offensive production from a trio of guys whose realistic ceiling is probably third catcher is a pretty nice boost at a spot where any kind of offense is generally seen as a bonus.

Yeah, Cleveland has been at it more or less since 2016 too with the 4th most wins in MLB over that stretch and what's looking like their eighth postseason trip over those 11 seasons coming up later this year.

Cubs have definitely had an interesting distribution of results so far this year. First eight games: alternate L/W back and forth Next eight games: two lose, two win, two lose, win, lose Win Ten Lose Three Win Ten Again Lose Four, Win Two Lose Six (& hopefully counting) That means they have been streaking (one way or another) for 33 of their 51 games so far (64.7%) I think we'd all agree last year's Brewers team was streakier than average, mostly in a good way. By my count they were at L4 (x2), L3 (x6), W3 (x8), W4 (x3), W8, W11, and W14 for 95 of their 162 games streaking (58.6%).

Got that wRC+ up to 109 now. More BB/HBP (36) than K (35). Seventeen swipes with zero caught stealing. Fun stuff for sure. 0403 thru 0418 (58 PA) 091/293/091 (32 wRC+) 0419 thru 0509 (73 PA) 254/384/339 (103 wRC+) 0510 thru 0522 (53 PA) 372/491/674 (202 wRC+)

I've been keeping an eye on it throughout the year, and had a post recently noting the success of their Age 28 and under pitchers this year to loop in guys like Ashby, Patrick, Drohan, Hall, Crow, Uribe (even though he's struggling), etc. For Age 28 and under they are at 341 IP (3rd) with a 72 ERA- (2nd) and 79 FIP- (3rd) good for 7.9 rWAR and 6.6 fWAR (both 1st in MLB) so far this year. Some of their other components are 125 K+ (2nd) 68 HR+ (4th) 90 AVG+ (5th) 109 LOB+ (1st). If we stretch things back to the beginning of the 30 Team Era in 1998 (810 full team seasons), who has had the best pitchers Age 28 and Under? The 2021 Brewers of course with 1,085 IP of 75 ERA- and 79 FIP- for 26.1 rWAR and 22.5 fWAR (both 1st among those 810 full team seasons).

Yeah, would guess they are hoping to get through six with Gasser/Hall then go to Anderson, Megill, and Uribe for 7/8/9 if they are tied/ahead or Woodford if they're trailing. With Grant last pitching on the 17th could maybe try to get four plus outs with him if needed.

Maybe like an old Swiss Army knife you find at a rummage sale with a bunch of dull edges that is missing the tweezers and toothpick. In his 2024 FanGraphs write up it was noted he could play all over, but isn't an especially good defender at any one spot. So far this year he has played primarily LF (158 innings), with some 2B (86 innings), a smattering of 1B (18 innings) and RF (14 innings), plus a solitary inning at 3B. To me that reads like someone the Brewers probably view as somewhat akin to Tyler Black as a fielder.