sveumrules

One huge advantage the Mariners have going for them is their stadium. Over the last three years at home the Mariners have a 3.19 ERA (1st) and 3.51 FIP (1st) compared to a 4.25 ERA (16th) and 4.24 FIP (16th) on the road. The Brewers have much more even splits at a 3.52 ERA (3rd) and 3.97 FIP (12th) at home versus a 3.79 ERA (2nd) and 4.25 FIP (18th) on the road. Which kind of brings us around to the major advantage the Brewers have over the Mariners, their defense travels with them at +145 DRS (3rd) | +112 FRV (1st) | -0.45 ERA/FIP (1st) for MIL compared to +14 DRS (15th) | -20 FRV (19th) | -0.16 FIP/ERA (7th) for SEA over those same three years with almost the entirety of the Mariners ERA/FIP gap resulting from their home stadium via the splits. Is the Brewers pitching lab thee very best? The 7th best? The 12th best? I dunno. But I do know over the last three years the Brewers are at 1,922 runs allowed (1st) | 3.66 ERA (1st) | 87 ERA- (1st) | 69.6 rWAR (t-1st) with a 3.99 xERA (10th) | 4.00 SIERA (13th) | 98 FIP- (11th) | 46.9 fWAR (12th) under the hood so their Run Prevention Unit is pretty much the best in the business.

Arnold said in his presser that both would be competing for Opening Day roster spots, now of course there is almost certainly an element of lip service there, but they are both in a position to potentially impact the MLB club at some point in 2026.

I hope so, the Brewers have won the Division three years running by a combined 24 games. A lot of those wins have come from guys that Arnold acquired via trade like Contreras (15.0 WAR), Ortiz (4.5 WAR), Priester (3.6 rWAR), Megill (3.0 rWAR), Patrick (2.6 rWAR), Durbin (2.6 WAR), Vaughn (1.9 WAR), Bauers (0.9 WAR), Gasser (0.7 rWAR), and DL Hall (0.6 rWAR) that are still with the team for years to come. Plus a slew of wins from since departed acquired via trade guys like Bryan Hudson (2.6 rWAR), Joel Payamps (2.2 rWAR), Aaron Civale (1.7 rWAR), Elvis Peguero (1.4 rWAR), Victor Caratini (1.2 WAR), Mark Canha (0.9 WAR), and Carlos Santana (0.7 WAR). The Brewers 282 wins are second most in MLB the last three years, take out the 45 wins or so they have traded for above and they'd drop to 237 wins which would put them 21st in MLB, five wins ahead of the Cardinals.

The Brewers and FanGraphs both view Jett's up the middle positional versatility as a positive attribute, "utility role" isn't demeaning in the modern context. If FanGraphs thought he was a utility guy like Ed Romero he wouldn't have been #69 on their most recent Top 100. Obviously the mold maker for the analytics set was 09-18 Ben Zobrist at 6130 PA of 121 wRC+ with +16.0 BSR and +44.0 DEF for 43.2 WAR while playing mostly 2B with some RF, LF, and SS thrown in. My favorite from when I was a kid example would be 84-97 Tony Phillips who racked up 7761 PA of 115 wRC+ with -14.1 BSR and +41.1 DEF for 43.1 WAR playing all over the diamond. Not sure it's responsible to project any non-Chourio/Made kind of prospect for anything approaching 40 WAR, but contemporary guys who have produced value in multi positional roles would look like... 18-25 Jeff McNeil (3,621 PA) 117 wRC+ | -3.9 BSR | +15.1 DEF | 21.1 WAR 17-23 Chris Taylor (3,220 PA) 111 wRC+ | +18.0 BSR | +2.7 DEF | 17.5 WAR 19-25 Tommy Edman (2,955 PA) 97 wRC+ | +24.0 DEF | +57.3 DEF | 17.3 WAR 20-25 Jake Cronenworth (3,212 PA) 109 wRC+ | +4.9 BSR | -2.6 DEF | 15.0 WAR 21-25 Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2,283 PA) 112 wRC+ | +21.3 BSR | +14.3 DEF | 14.7 WAR 22-25 Brendan Donovan (2,006 PA) 119 wRC+ | -5.0 BSR | -10.6 DEF | 10.1 WAR 24-25 Ernie Clement (1,040 PA) 96 wRC+ | +1.7 BSR | +19.9 DEF | 5.3 WAR 23-25 Zach McKinstry (1,354 PA) 92 wRC+ | +10.5 BSR | +8.6 DEF | 5.3 WAR 23-25 Mauricio Dubon (1,318 PA) 88 wRC+ | -0.7 BSR | +24.4 DEF | 5.1 WAR 24-25 Josh Smith (1,115 PA) 107 wRC+ | +1.3 BSR | -3.4 DEF | 4.7 WAR

A range of positive short player outcomes from 2021-25... 5'10" 190 Lindor (3338 PA | 29.8 WAR) 123 wRC+ | +11.2 BSR | +74.1 DEF 5'8" 190 Ramirez (3367 PA | 29.8 WAR) 135 wRC+ | +25.2 BSR | +14.5 DEF 5'10" 180 Mookie (3061 PA | 25.2 WAR) 137 wRC+ | +3.7 BSR | +2.8 DEF 5'6" 167 Altuve (3028 PA | 22.2 WAR) 135 wRC+ | -0.5 BSR | -9.4 DEF 5'10" 165 Carroll (2086 PA | 17.6 WAR) 126 wRC+ | +35.1 BSR | +1.9 DEF 5'10" 218 Contreras (2510 PA | 16.9 WAR) 123 wRC+ | -12.9 DEF | +24.3 DEF 5'8" 170 Kwan (2589 PA | 15.1 WAR) 112 wRC+ | +11.0 BSR | +13.5 DEF 5'8" 175 Mullins (2799 PA | 15.0 WAR) 109 wRC+ | +14.2 BSR | +7.8 DEF 5'10" 185 Arozarena (3260 PA | 14.5 WAR) 122 wRC+ | -1.7 BSR | -48.9 DEF 5'8" 207 Varsho (2272 PA | 13.3 WAR) 100 wRC+ | +9.3 BSR | +43.6 DEF 5'9" 193 Edman (2379 PA | 12.7 WAR) 93 wRC+ | +18.3 BSR | +45.5 DEF 5'7" 165 Albies (2717 PA | 11.5 WAR) 104 wRC+ | +10.0 BSR | -0.7 DEF 5'10" 200 Kim (2167 PA | 11.2 WAR) 99 wRC+ | +9.1 BSR | +29.7 DEF 5'8" 180 Friedl (1876 PA | 8.1 WAR) 107 wRC+ | +10.5 BSR | -8.7 FLD

Yeah, looks like this graphic is only accounting for FA contracts. Athletics are down for $2.85M but they added $10M in salary trading for McNeil, plus extended Soderstrom for $86M.

The Brewers spent $22M when Woodruff accepted their qualifying offer.

Ortiz is 5'10" and just put up +10 FRV, 5th best at SS last year. 5'8" Taylor Walls has +52 DRS at SS, most in MLB since 2021. 5'10" IKF is 5th on that same leaderboard with +27 DRS. 5'8" Nick Allen has +25 DRS | +19 FRV for his career at SS. 5'10" Anthony Volpe has +23 DRS the last three years. Masyn Winn on the Cardinals (+15 DRS | +22 FRV) is 5'9". Jimmy Rollins was listed at 5'7" and had +54 DRS in a seventeen year career. 5'9" Omar Vizquel played the most innings at SS in the history of the game with +129 fielding runs on BRef for his career. Williams probably won't be a primary SS though, he's more likely to bounce around all over the place.

I'm more of a leaderboard scourer than an astro physicist, but thinking out loud a little here it seems like a lot of the game these days is centered around that rising four seam fastball up in the zone. Now obviously up in the zone means different things depending on whether a guy is 5'10" or under like a fair number of Brewers players/prospects versus say 6'3" and over. When we hear that some guy's pitch has X amount of rise, or Y amount of run, those numbers are averages to my understanding. So I guess what my thought comes down to is, how much (if at all) does vertical location correlate to inducing rise on a fastball? Intuitively it would feel like a pitch has more runway to rise the higher it is thrown, with incrementally less runway to rise (& more chances to miss down over the middle) the lower it goes. If in fact there is some degree of correlation there, getting short guys with good plate discipline (& the impending arrival of ABS Challenge System) could just be another case of the Brewers playing the margins from multiple angles (with Jett's speed and defensive versatility representing two big margin plays as well). Was definitely weird going to Peralta's player page at FanGraphs and seeing that orange Mets banner though. Thanks for everything Freddy, in game threads truly won't be the same without pages upon pages of griping about your inability to pitch deep in games, or needing ten pitches to put a guy away, or not being a True Ace...but your fastball (& changeup & slider & curveball too) will always blaze a path straight through the heart of my zone.

Check back in November (then again five years from now)

Pretty much same as the Burnes trade - Brewers looking for one position player and one pitcher, both in that back end of the Top 100 (or just off of it) kind of range, that are also MLB ready (or close to it).

Obviously every prospect has their own trajectory, but Turang hit for a 100 wRC+ and 0.58 BB/K as a 21 year old in the Southern League (not sure what kind of minor league batted ball data there is from 2021), then a 110 wRC+ over parts of three seasons (842 PA) at AAA, then another 1067 PA in MLB of 77 wRC+ before finally breaking out last year at Age 25. Pratt had a 107 wRC+ and 0.84 BB/K as a 20 year old in the Southern League, so slightly better production at a younger age than Brice. I think Cooper's shortstop defense & age (Moises Ballesteros and Justin Crawford were the only two players to crack 500 PA at AAA last year in their age 21 season) gives him plenty of runway to make improvements on the hitting side.

Funny thing about Sirota with LAD is they got him (plus the 41st pick in last year's draft) from CIN for one year of Gavin Lux where he hit for a 102 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR before the Reds recently flipped him for one year of reliever Brock Burke.

I didn't go through and remove all the position players that pitched which would slide the numbers some, but looks like the Brewers were something like 12th and the Dodgers were around 24th in terms of total players used in 2025... STL (22 pos | 24 pit | 46 total) CLE (21 pos | 26 pit | 47 total) PHI (20 pos | 28 pit | 48 total) KCR (23 pos | 27 pit | 50 total) WAS (22 pos | 30 pit | 52 total) SDP (25 pos | 28 pit | 53 total) NYY (20 pos | 34 pit | 54 total) CHC (21 pos | 33 pit | 54 total) CIN (26 pos | 28 pit | 54 total) SEA (23 pos | 33 pit | 56 total) SFG (25 pos | 31 pit | 56 total) MIL (24 pos | 33 pit | 57 total) MIA (26 pos | 31 pit | 57 total) TBR (27 pos | 30 pit | 57 total) TEX (28 pos | 29 pit | 57 total) BOS (23 pos | 35 pit | 58 total) PIT (27 pos | 31 pit | 58 total) ATH (25 pos | 35 pit | 60 total) DET (22 pos | 39 pit | 61 total) MIN (24 pos | 37 pit | 61 total) COL (30 pos | 31 pit | 61 total) TOR (24 pos | 38 pit | 62 total) HOU (27 pos | 36 pit | 63 total) LAD (25 pos | 39 pit* | 64 total) CHW (33 pos | 32 pit | 65 total) NYM (20 pos | 46 pit | 66 total) ARI (24 pos | 42 pit | 66 total) LAA (30 pos | 41 pit | 71 total) ATL (27 pos | 47 pit | 73 total) BAL (34 pos | 41 pit | 75 total)

Yeah, Burke and Adams will definitely be interesting placements. Could also see them keeping Adams in Biloxi similar to Jadher repeating Wisco last year with an emphasis on swing decisions.

Yes, believe the correct pronunciation is like the impressionist painter and not like the root of all evil.

Trade for Drew Millas. Currently the 4th catcher on the Nats 40 man so shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive to acquire and offers more intrigue / upside than the veteran FA options.

The current six seed Magic at 22 W - 18 L have a .550 W%. The Bucks are 14 W - 12 L (.542 W%) when Giannis plays so right in that range. If they miss the playoffs it will likely be because Giannis gets hurt again (3 W- 11 L record so far when he doesn't play). In the past when he missed games the drop off wasn't so stark because Middleton or Dame was still there to be the Alpha, but those guys got old and hurt which is why we're here to begin with. The starting five of KPJ | Rollins | AJG | Giannis | Turner are at +15.1 points per 100 possessions in 160 minutes together on the floor now that they've all been healthy concurrently for a stretch. Bobby is still a fine sixth man as the only guy besides Giannis who can grab a rebound, plus create some offense for himself, not to mention the crazy eyes. But yeah, spots seven through fourteen need an overhaul for sure (I'd say that's mostly on Horst) but maybe Jon can pull something interesting at the deadline between the 2031 First Round Pick and Kuzma plus whoever else is needed to match salaries.

Would be nice if DL could rediscover some of that fastball juice for sure. 2022-23 with BAL his four seamer had 95.8 MPH average velo | 111 Stuff+ | +3.5 runs 2024-25 with MIL his four seamer had 93.6 MPH average velo | 85 Stuff+ | -6.4 runs Pretty wild swing. Bryce Meccage pops up on the third slide too at 96.77 MPH.

FanGraphs has their 2026 International Prospects article out today (with some interesting info about turmoil atop the Yankees international operation). Scouting reports for the Brewers guys... Jose Rodriguez (40 FV) "Rodriguez is generally seen as the best infield defender in the 2026 international class, as fundamentally sound as he is flashy. Adding strength in pro ball will be a priority for him, as few scouts see him as realistically being able to make the offensive impact of an everyday shortstop, and instead see him in the Nick Allen mold." Diego Frontado (35+ FV) "Frontado is on the older side for the 2026 signing class and is also among its most advanced baseball players. He has deft infield actions and finds a way to put the bat on the ball even though for much of the commitment window he needed to use his whole body to swing hard. His tools are modest, but he's a good young baseball player with the frame to add more strength and have a viable skill set at maturity." Rickey Moneys (35+ FV) "Moneys has two tickets to paradise where paradise is Maryvale. The power-hitting corner infield prospect is set to receive a $1 million bonus. Moneys is a thicker corner-only infielder with mature power for this market."

MLBTR predicted 12/528, Ben Clemens at FanGraphs came in at 13/527, the median crowdsource at FanGraphs was 10/450. All much closer to $460M than $700M. Soto and Guerrero benefitted from Ohtani's deal raising the bar at the top of the market and being three years younger in the first season of their mega-deals. For all Ohtani's two way talent no bidding team thought they were realistically getting ten years of a pitcher. He was already hurt when he signed which wiped out most of the first two years and odds are his arm won't make it through the remaining eight years intact either.

There will surely be one (& maybe even two) CBA re-negotiations before any kind of expansion were to take place. If the MLBPA and owners want to do something about revenue disparity they will have the chance(s) to do so before expanding. (I wouldn’t hold my breath though) Expansion fees of $1.5B per new team would mean $100M for each of the current 30 teams (or $66.6M each if the expansion fee is only $1B) so I can see why Manfred and the owners might prioritize that over fixing a system the involved parties don’t believe is nearly as broken as small market fans believe it to be.

The Brewers primary allegiance here is with the other 29 teams in doing their best to ensure that Arby's salaries grow as slowly as possible. By refusing to meet somewhere between the two figures William is hoping to do the opposite on behalf of future catchers. The Brewers already offered him a record tying amount for his position and service time, any accepted compromise above that number by Contreras would have constituted a new record. Now who knows the specifics, maybe the Brewers were only willing to go up to say $9M on a pre-hearing agreement and clearly William and his agent think his performance to date is worth closer to $10M based on the established precedents of the Arby's system. Hard for me to say it's a mistake by either side without knowing those specifics. If say Contreras and his camp weren't willing to go below $9.5M, that's pushing the line up pretty aggressively over the top previously established comp. No doubt, Contreras is worth three times that in a holistic sense, but now if Quero and/or Dinges hit down the line that number will be pushed even higher for them by the other catchers that reach Arby's in the interim. As a draft and develop team the Brewers are probably extra motivated to keep those Arby's figures from growing too fast also since pre-FA players are the lifeblood of the organization.

That no team was willing to offer a proven MLB bat for one year of Peralta. Or, that the Brewers brass preferred whatever hypothetical combination of a starter and prospects were offered versus whatever hypothetical proven MLB bat was offered.

Gotcha, sounds like that’s mostly the same as what savant has available then. Thought TJS or somebody else went through (or more likely wrote some code to go through) all the MILB GameDays to scrub info for the random stadiums that display the full StstCast array with pitch type / velo / location along with batted ball info at the lower levels.