sveumrules

After tonight's win the Brewers 158 W - 103 L record going back to August 6th of 2024 is the best in MLB. Their 993 runs allowed are the fewest in MLB over that stretch, and their 1,301 runs scored are fourth for a +308 run differential (+1.18 R/G). I'm not quite old enough to have any memories of those early 1980's Brewers, but it looks like they had a stretch from April 20th of 1981 thru September 29th of 1982 where they had an MLB best 154 W - 106 L record. Their 1,345 runs scored were the most in MLB over that stretch (111 more than the Angels in second) but their 1,115 runs allowed were 18th in a then 26 team MLB for a +230 run differential (+0.88 R/G). Something else to consider about the current squad is that while this is the ninth season of their postseason window or whatever one wants to call it going back to 2018, it's really only like the third year of the Murphy iteration. Either way, the aforementioned Dodgers first season of their playoff run was all the way back in 2013. From then through 2023 they won 91 more games than any other team in baseball, but zero World Series outside of the COVID weirdened 2020 season. It took them until their ELEVENTH try to win one in a full season. And all they need to finally get over that hump was to sign a generational superstar & a bunch of other really good players to contracts that were essentially like injecting PEDs into their already bulging financial muscles. Since winning their last World Series in 2009 the Yankees have won the second most games in MLB behind the Dodgers. They made the playoffs in eleven of those fifteen full seasons with just one World Series loss to show for the whole enterprise. The OG Dynasty, Daddy Warbucks Yankees are going on Year 17 now of trying to win another World Series. When it takes the two teams with more built in advantages a decade plus (& still counting in the Yankees case) to finally win their WS, the Brewers going on Year Nine (but really more like Year Three at this point) is really them just getting things started.

It's probably totally meaningless, but kind of interesting nonetheless, Bauers positional splits since joining the Brewers... 1B (487 PA) 218/308/385 (95 wRC+) 10.5 BB% | 29.4 K% OF (122 PA) 284/402/500 (154 wRC+) 15.6 BB% | 24.6 K% PH (65 PA) 231/369/346 (110 wRC+) 16.9 BB% | 30.8 K% DH (52 PA) 239/327/457 (120 wRC+) 11.5 BB% | 34.6 K% Overall the Brewers have gone 21 W - 14 L in the 35 games Bauers has started in the OF since 2024.

Now 18 W - 6 L against teams at .500 or better on the year. During this recent 17 W - 5 L streak they have allowed three or fewer runs in 18 of the games.

Pena reached on error in his third trip to the plate, eventually coming around to score on a CJ Hughes RBI single as the Complex Crew now leads 5 to 3 in the fifth.

Lowest wOBA allowed with RISP... 2026 before tonight MIL (.269) NYY (.285) 2025 MIL (.292) PIT (.293) 2024 MIL (.286) CLE (.288) 2024-26 MIL (.287) CLE (.294) Put it all together and the Brewers 75.9% Strand Rate is best in MLB from 2024 to present, which has helped them beat their FIP by an MLB best -0.38 runs per nine over that same stretch, en route to allowing thee fewest runs in MLB over the last two plus seasons.

Luis Pena has walked in both his PA so far (also stole a base and scored a run) as the AZ Crew lead 2 to 1 heading to bottom of three.

Sounds scored six with Pratt walking twice, Lara walking twice (& stealing a bag), Wilken doubling and walking thrice, Quero notching a pair of singles, Matos and Jones each singled twice and walked. Rob Z pitched a scoreless sixth (1 H | 1 K) and Junior Fernandez picked up the save with a scoreless ninth in the 6 to 5 Nashville win.

Ebel added a double and single to the mix, Pedro Ibarguen doubled (& walked), and Jadyn Fielder walked thrice en route to seven runs for the Wilson offense. Jarrette Bonet with 6.1 scoreless IP (1 H | 2 HBP | 1 BB | 6 K) while Peyton Niksch finished it out allowing two unearned runs (5 H | 5 K).

Luis Pena walked, stole a base, and scored a run in the bottom of the first down in Arizona.

Out of 339 pitchers with at least 250 IP in the minors since 2023, Henderson’s 34.0 GB% ranks 326th so he’s always gotten a lot of airborne contact. With a 32.2 K% (4th) and .198 average against (10th) he’s managed a 1.01 WHIP (2nd) on that same leaderboard. Flip it over to MLB and Logan is one of 223 starting pitchers with at least 40 IP since last year. Some of his ranks there… 121 LOB+ (1st) | 150 K+ (3rd) | 68 FIP- (8th) | 61 ERA- (10th) | 78 WHIP+ (18th) His 20.6 GB% is 223rd on that leaderboard, six percent lower than Eric Lauer in 222nd at 26.8%.

Good call. Forgot Cortes was in that deal along with Quintana.

Brewers Hader (316 IP) 58 ERA- | 63 FIP- +14.22 WPA | 11.1 rWAR notBrewers Hader (196 IP) 72 ERA- | 77 FIP- +7.21 WPA | 3.8 rWAR [Josh has maybe had the most success post trade, but was paid commensurately at $56M for those 196 IP from 2022 to 2025. He has yet to pitch this season with a biceps issue and has two years and $38M remaining beyond the $19M he is making this year] 20-23 Burnes (622 IP) 68 ERA- | 67 FIP- 18.7 rWAR | 17.9 fWAR 24-25 Burnes (258 IP) 71 ERA- | 90 FIP- 6.3 rWAR | 4.6 fWAR [not much difference in run prevention but a big step back in the peripherals before requiring TJ. Even in some kind of hypothetically more financially equitable MLB where teams had better chance of retaining their homegrown stars Milwaukee might have lost out anyway given Corbin's stated desire to be closer to family in Arizona] 21-24 Adames (2,356 PA) 113 wRC+ | 15.9 WAR -1 DRS | +19 FRV 25-26 Adames (892 PA) 102 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR -1 DRS | -2 FRV [had a perfectly fine season in 2025 in line with his career norms, but has had a rough start to this year (along with the rest of the Giants, who are a pretty good example of where signing a bunch of expensive but not top tier free agents can get you) with five years $140M left after this year] 20-24 Williams (222 IP) 41 ERA- | 53 FIP- +14.33 WPA | 9.4 rWAR 25-26 Williams (78 IP) 116 ERA- | 61 FIP- +1.00 WPA | -0.7 rWAR [peripherals have backed up a little bit, but run prevention thru the roof of the skyscraper. From 2020 to 2024 Devin had an 82.8% strand rate that was 2nd best among all relievers (min. 150 IP), from 2025 to 2026 his 59.2% strand rate is dead last among all relievers (min. 70 IP). Maybe none of it would have happened if he just stayed in lil old Milwaukee, but a good example of the volatility inherent even amongst elite relievers] But yeah, instead of having all those guys, at market rate salaries, the Brewers have had Contreras, Payamps, Ortiz, Hall, Durbin, Harrison, Drohan, and Hamilton with Blake Burke and Brady Ebel (believe he was drafted with the Adames pick?) as potential future contributors down the road too. For now, with the current economic system I agree that Milwaukee's inability to compete financially is somewhat of a benefit because it limits them to one or two "big" contracts at a time, and with their player development and procurement apparatus they can identify potential contributors from the lowest levels of amateur baseball all the way up thru MLB players sitting stagnant in other orgs.

Contreras was an immediate downstream result from the Hader trade, Harrison is the same thing for the Williams trade except we mined an additional 2.6 WAR (en route to a third straight Division Title) from Durbin in the interim. Burnes put up 4.5 rWAR in his lone Baltimore season, Ortiz is at 4.9 WAR so far with another 1.4 rWAR from DL Hall and the Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB since trading Corbin. I'd say that's been working just fine too. Everybody wanted Coby Mayo instead, couldn't believe the Brewers settled for the package they got and didn't hold out for the more highly rated slugging third baseman. He's got -0.6 WAR for his career so far.

It's obviously been awhile, but the most recent WS Champs with subpar isolated slugging were the 2012 Giants (87 ISO+) and 2015 Royals (92 ISO+). The 2014 version of the Royals is the lowest recent WS participant with an 83 ISO+. Last year the Blue Jays made it in right at average (100 ISO+), the Giants won it in 2014 just a tick below (99 ISO+), the Cleveland team that lost in 2016 was at 101 ISO+. It's not impossible, it's just a long shot. It's always going to be a long shot. After winning Game Six of the 2018 NLCS, when the 100% World Series Odds were divvied up amongst just three remaining teams, and all the Brewers had to do was win one home game to advance, FanGraphs had their odds of winning the World Series at 9.0%. When they were up two games to one earlier in the series it was 11.3%. Before the NLCS started last year they had us at 11.4%. The most encouraging element of the whole thing to me (besides having a uniquely constructed, fun to watch team that wins) is that they're just getting started. It's evolved from "they can't develop hitting prospects" to the Brewers getting an MLB best 52.0 WAR from players in their Age 28 season or younger since Murphy took over in 2024. Second place in the Yankees at down at 40.6 WAR with an eight win boost from their Soto year. From a team that was 17th in runs scored with a 100 position player wRC+ during their 2017 to 2023 run, to one that's 4th in run scored with a 105 wRC+ since 2024, to one that's scored thee most runs in MLB with a 111 wRC+ over the last calendar year, to whatever the future holds with the current young core plus the dozen or so hitting prospects waiting in the wings over the next couple two tree years.

Haven't seen anything new since the update from Hogg at the top of the page. Believe the ACL is off on Wednesdays so maybe he will get into today's game?

Leonard has 158 innings in LF this year, 77 innings at 2B then a smattering in RF (14 innings) and 1B (12 innings). Reading between the lines (plus numerous scouting reports mentioning his defensive shortcomings) I'd imagine they view Eddys in a similar vein as Tyler Black as a guy they really wouldn't trust in the field much beyond standing in LF or at 1B in an emergency.

So far this year Misio is at 178 K+ | 88 BB+ | 59 HR+ | 47 ERA- | 53 FIP-. After last night Kyle is at 146 K+ | 83 BB+ | 56 HR+ | 44 ERA- | 61 FIP-. Truly insane stuff. Ashby in his Age 28 season is the Old Man of all the Young Guns, so using that as the cutoff Brewers pitchers age 28 and younger this year have 332 IP (2nd in MLB) with a 74 ERA- (2nd) and 79 FIP- (3rd). The teams with better ERA- and FIP- have 127 and 155 IP respectively. The Brewers 7.5 rWAR and 6.5 fWAR from pitchers age 28 and under are both tops in MLB a full win ahead of CLE in second. Anyway, would imagine any extension offer for Kyle would have to exceed Spencer Strider's six years $75M signed all the way back in 2022 so probably would take something like $100M at this point with four years of MLB inflation. When Spencer signed he had just posted 131 IP of 169 K+ | 103 BB+ | 43 HR+ | 65 ERA- | 48 FIP-.

How much difference does a three game series in May make? FanGraphs NL Central Projections (0517) CHC: 88.4 W | 46.2% WinDiv MIL: 86.2 W | 28.8% WinDiv PIT: 83.6 W | 15.2% WinDiv STL: 81.3 W | 7.9% WinDiv CIN: 77.5 W | 1.8% WinDiv FanGraphs NL Central Projections (0521) MIL: 88.6 W | 46.6% WinDiv CHC: 86.6 W | 28.5% WinDiv PIT: 83.7 W | 14.4% WinDiv STL: 81.9 W | 8.2% WinDiv CIN: 78.2 W | 2.3%WinDiv And a couple two tree Divisional Leaderboards with MLB ranks in parentheses... Runs Per Game MIL (5.04 | 4th) PIT (4.94 | 6th) CHC (4.92 | 7th) STL (4.52 | 11th) CIN (4.42 | 14th) Runs Allowed Per Game MIL (3.45 | 3rd) CHC (4.36 | 13th) PIT (4.49 | 16th) STL (4.54 | 18th) CIN (4.98 | 25th) Run Differential MIL (+75 | 3rd) CHC (+28 | 6th) PIT (+22 | 7th) STL (-1 | 13th) CIN (-28 | 24th)

Pitching, mostly. Brewers have allowed the 3rd fewest runs per game at 3.52 versus the Cubs being much closer to average at 4.35 RA/G (13th). For all the holes in the lineup, the Brewers (5.04 R/G) have also scored at the same pace as the more well rounded Cubs lineup (5.02 R/G).

Yeah, believe the tacked balls were first half of 2023 when Chourio was in Biloxi, then he went off on a tear shortly after they switched back to the regular balls.

@wiguy94 posted some numbers awhile back showing that all of the Brewers affiliate leagues have seen big jumps in OPS over last year. Currently its at Southern League (.740 vs .660 last year), Midwest League (.767 vs .693), and Carolina League (.719 vs .665). Believe FanGraphs prospector Brendan Gawlowski has also mentioned his suspicions that something is up with the minor league balls this year.

After 46 games last year the Brewers were 21 W - 25 L sitting six games out of first place with a -10 run differential. Since then, the Brewers 104 W - 58 L record is the best in baseball with the Yankees in 2nd at 98 W - 69 L, while the Cubs and Dodgers are tied for the next spots at 94 W - 71 L. Over these past 162 games here are some of the Brewers ranks... POSITION PLAYERS 845 R (1st) | .263 AVG (1st) | .340 OBP (1st) | .145 ISO (25th) 111 wRC+ (2nd) | +10.7 BsR (1st) | 19.8 K% (3rd) | 0.49 BB/K (1st) 6.9 Barrel% (28th) | 39.2 HardHit% (23rd) | .329 wOBA (2nd) PITCHERS 593 R (1st) | 3.33 ERA (1st) | 3.55 xERA (1st) | 3.61 FIP (1st) 25.3 K% (1st) | 0.94 HR9 (1st) | .223 AVG (2nd) | 1.19 WHIP (2nd) 76.0 LOB% (2nd) | -0.28 ERA/FIP (5th) | 37.9 HardHit% (1st)

Out Getter. Going back to last year, there are 144 pitchers in MLB with at least 100 IP as a starter. Here are some of Patrick's vitals along with their ranks on that leaderboard... 140 IP (105th) | 119 FB+ (17th) | 73 HR+ (19th) 107 K+ (47th) | 103 BB+ (103rd) | 102 K/BB+ (80th) 100 AVG+ (68th) | 100 WHIP+ (86th) | 109 LOB+ (29th) 82 ERA- (35th) | 86 FIP- (35th) | 103 xFIP- (89th) 3.4 rWAR (48th) | 2.9 fWAR (45th) Despite an innings total just outside the Top 100, Chad has put up bottom line production just inside the Top 50...and that might not even be enough for him to crack the Brewers Top Five SP. Pretty good stuff. With K/BB rates that are nothing special though, the whole enterprise has been propped up by getting really good HR prevention despite one of the higher fly ball rates in the pool with an assist from stranding runners at an above average clip. His xFIP- shows how much of a tightrope he has walked during those 140 IP. If we look at how some of those rate stats move around during Patrick's 19 regular season IP out of the bullpen things like his fly ball rate (124 FB+) and K rate (109 K+) are pretty much the same. His HR rate goes up a bit (84 HR+), but improvements in his walk rate (75 BB+) and hit limiting (90 AVG+) have resulted in fewer base runners (80 WHIP+). Put it all together, with a slight uptick in strand rate (113 LOB+) to boot, and Chad comes out at 68 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 93 xFIP- in his limited pen time. Between Priester & Woodruff's health issues, Sproat's inconsistency & 75 to 85 pitch ceiling, plus none of Henderson, Crow & Gasser really being built up for a full season's workload just yet, I'd guess that Patrick bounces back and forth between the bullpen and rotation as needed throughout the rest of the season.

Looks like there are 54 pitchers with at least 20 IP in the Southern League here to start the season. Some of Stiven Cruz's ranks so far... 0.75 WHIP (1st) | 34.1 K% (2nd) | 3.7 BB% (2nd) | 52.9 FB% (2nd) | 2.80 FIP (3rd) | 2.38 ERA (5th) | .177 AVG (7th)

Rob Z with a ten pitch 3U3D2K frame in the Sounds win. Wande Torres put up his best start of the year going six scoreless with 2 H | 1 BB | 6 K before the bullpen theatrics.