sveumrules

In the macro they've improved because they've increased their runs scored per game by +0.56 while simultaneously decreasing their runs allowed per game by -0.44, which as you noted combine to increase their run differential from +0.23 R/G in 2022, to +1.23 R/G so far this year. If one wanted to dig a little deeper they could find that one reason for the offense scoring more runs is that they have improved greatly with RISP from 2022 to 2023 (22nd in PA | 6th in wRC+ | 15th in RBI) versus these last three seasons (1st in PA | 2nd in wRC+ | 1st in RBI). Their RISP opportunities increased along with their OBP, from .317 (15th during 2022 to 2023) up to .332 (2nd since 2024) and more balls in play (23.9 K% in 2022 to 21.5 K% in 2026). Massive improvement on the bases from +7.9 BsR (10th from 2022 to 2023) up to +42.8 BsR (1st by over 17 runs from 2024 to 2026) has helped too. On the run prevention side the 2022 to 2024 teams relied much more on their defense (+171 DRS and +88 FRV | both 2nd in MLB) with a 90 ERA- that was fourth, but a 99 FIP- that came in 15th. The raw -0.38 run gap between their 3.73 ERA and 4.11 FIP was the largest in MLB over that stretch. These last two years they've still gotten some help from the defense (+61 DRS | 8th and +28 FRV | 7th) but their 86 ERA- (1st) has been more in line with their peripherals (92 FIP- | t-3rd) with a smaller -0.26 run gap between their 3.55 ERA and 3.81 FIP. Looking at the individual peripheral components... 2022 to 24 106 K+ | 99 BB+ | 105 HR+ 2025 to 2026 113 K+ | 102 BB+ | 91 HR+ ...and the underlying numbers show Brewers pitchers have traded a small increase in walk rate for much larger improvements in striking out batters and limiting home runs.

Moneys, Frontado, and Matos the obvious names. Jose Rodriguez the fourth for his reported fielding acumen? Was the fifth a pitcher? Santiago Martinez sounded pretty encouraging before going down with injury, maybe Paul Hoff starting to get some liebe?

It's been a month since the trade deadline now and the Brewers 19 W - 11 L record since August 4th is the second best mark in MLB behind the Phillies at 19 W - 9 L and just ahead of TBR/TOR at 18 W - 11 L each. Their run of increasing their W% both pre/post deadline and year over year during the Murph Era is looking pretty uncanny... 2024 pre (61 W - 46 L | .570 W%) post (32 W - 23 L | .582 W%) 2025 pre (64 W - 44 L | .593 W%) post (33 W - 21 L | .611 W%) 2026 pre (69 W - 43 L | .616 W%) so far (19 W - 11 L | .633 W%) Tracks with longer pattern of year over year macro improvements as we've transitioned out of Stearns/Counsell and into Arnold/Murphy... 2022 86 W - 76 L (.531 W%) +37 RunDiff | +57 BaseRuns 4.48 RS/G | 4.25 RA/G 2023 92 W - 70 L (.568 W%) +81 RunDiff | +34 BaseRuns 4.49 RS/G | 3.99 RA/G 2024 93 W - 69 L (.574 W%) +136 RunDiff | +91 BaseRuns 4.80 RS/G | 3.96 RA/G 2025 97 W - 65 L (.599 W%) +172 RunDiff | +134 BaseRuns 4.98 RS/G | 3.91 RA/G 2026 so far 88 W - 54 L (.620 W%) +174 RunDiff | +165 BaseRuns 5.04 RS/G | 3.81 RA/G That's 19 of 20 categories (W%, RunDiff, BaseRuns, RS/G, and RA/G times four years) that have each improved season over season since 2022 with the decreasing BaseRuns from 2022 to 2023 the lone holdout. Truly insane stuff.

Posted this in an IGT a few days ago, but they've been dominant for longer than since the All Star Break... First 26 Games 8 L (3rd most) | 109 AVG+ (27th) | -1.50 WPA (25th) | 95 LOB+ (19th) | 102 ERA- (16th) | 88 FIP- (7th) Last 116 Games 11 L (fewest) | 87 AVG+ (1st) | +9.32 WPA (2nd) | 107 LOB+ (2nd) | 75 ERA- (3rd) | 88 FIP- (2nd) Murphy's bullpen calls get maligned left and right, yet in 2024 Brewers relievers came in at +13.14 WPA (2nd), and in 2025 it was +5.03 WPA (10th), so far this year it's +7.63 WPA (2nd), and for his tenure as a whole it's +25.99 WPA (2nd) | 91 AVG+ (1st) | 104 LOB+ (1st) | 81 ERA- (2nd) | 91 FIP- (3rd). Guardians (+28.97 WPA) and Braves (+20.46 WPA) are the only other bullpens above plus twenty Win Probability Added over the last three seasons with Hader/Astros next at +17.97 WPA, then the annually dominant Padres pen in fifth at +15.39 WPA before a drop off to the Yankees at +12.23 WPA (less than half the Brewers total).

Thru April 30th 5.33 R/G over 30 games 142 wRC+ with RISP Month of May 4.15 R/G over 26 games 107 wRC+ with RISP June 1st to June 8th 9.50 R/G over eight games 154 wRC+ with RISP June 9th to August 16th 4.33 R/G over 61 games 87 wRC+ with RISP August 18th 22 runs in one game 336 wRC+ with RISP August 19th to September 4th 5.31 R/G over 16 games 124 wRC+ with RISP Twenty games (plus October) yet to go, but is it possible that pouring it on for 22 runs woke the Brewers offense from their midseason slumber?

It ain't over until the Brewers are losing by three runs in the fourth inning.

It's two series wins in eight years, didn't make their first playoff appearance until 2018. The Brewers 11 Postseason Wins since 2018 are 11th in MLB, and their 31 total games are 7th. Well over half the league would love to have 20 playoff losses since 2018 like the Brewers have. The Nationals are one spot ahead of them with 12 Postseason Wins since 2018, and those all came in their 2019 World Series year. The Rangers are also ahead of them with 13 Postseason Wins since 2018, again all coming in their 2023 World Series year. Individual mileage will certainly vary, but I know I wouldn't trade the last eight plus years of Brewers baseball for a single World Series run. The Dodgers made the postseason every year from 2013 to 2019 winning 33 more regualar season games than any other team over that stretch. They won zero WS. They finally broke their streak in the weirdened 2020 season, but went three more full seasons before finally winning a WS after a full season, and all they need to do it was to sign Ohtani to get over the top. Eleven full seasons (plus a generational superstar on a barely legal contract) was all it took the Dodgers. The Yankees are going on their 16th full season since their last World Series win, with only one WS loss in the interim. This is the ninth year of the Brewers run, and they've gotten better year over year for the last four seasons in a row now. The MLB roster is stacked with young, controllable talent with the #1 prospect baseball headlining one of the deepest farms yet on the horizon. Things are just getting started.

Lefty on the mound, so probably not.

Be facing a left handed starting pitcher

Yeah, the Brewers 3.57 FIP is lowest in MLB but they are still running an even lower 3.37 ERA with that -0.20 deficit the 8th best in MLB. That (along with just watching the games) would lead me to believe their actual performance is closer to their +43 DRS (6th) this year than it is their -3 FRV (16th) so far.

There was exactly one player traded at the deadline that would have changed the Brewers odds/outlook…and he predictably went to the Dodgers. For teams like the Brewers who are already far out in front of the pack with no glaring holes (like the Cubs pitching for one example), the overwhelming majority of deadline deals are about depth and buttressing a teams current odds. If the Brewers hold the #1 seed & May/JoJo pitch quality postseason innings the trade will be a win (until Ragsdale & Frias make their way to MLB and help STL get back to the playoffs).

August 4th was the first day Yelich hit fifth and since then he has hit fifth or sixth for 15 of the 16 games he has started (other game was clean up). Doesn't include tonight's 2 for 3 with a double and walk (which shakes out to a 369 wRC+ for the evening) but before that he was at 71 PA of 262/310/415 (100 wRC+) with a 5.6 BB% and 22.5 K% since that 08/04 date. StatCast thinks he has been unlucky with a .356 expected wOBA (about a 127 wRC+) but only a .316 actual wOBA during that stretch, Over the 276 PA before that (after returning from injury for good on May 17th through August 3rd) he was at 276 PA of 221/313/367 (90 wRC+) with a 10.9 BB% and 26.8 K%. StatCast wasn't all that impressed with a .311 expected wOBA and a .302 actual wOBA for that stretch. Obviously small, sliced up samples but that is a pretty big drop in walk and strikeout rates recently with it looking like Yelich has increased his swing / contact rates from 43.1% and 71.3% during the 05/17 to 08/03 stretch up to 47.1% and 75.7% for this more recent stretch hitting lower in the order.

Would be such a cool story if somehow Woodruff made it back for the Postseason and was able to contribute to some wins. Out of 182 starting pitchers with at least 100 IP over the last two years Woody comes in at... 138 FB%+ (1st) | 24.2 LA (1st) | 2.45 xERA (2nd) | 68 WHIP+ (2nd) | 75 AVG+ (3rd) | 211 K/BB+ (5th) | 14.7 IFFB% (7th) | 138 K+ (10th) | 77 FIP- (18th) | 35.2 HardHit% (18th) | 65 BB+ (19th) | 75 ERA- (26th) Only real blemishes on his record from a performance standpoint have been mediocre home run (99 HR+) and strand (101 LOB+) rates. Obviously would have loved it if his shoulder had help up for more innings, but his results when on the mound have been pretty remarkable with a heater diminished four to five MPH from peak form.

One of them was Patrick as the bulk guy (4 IP | 4 ER) on April 22nd after Hall opened with two scoreless. Chad started his next two appearances, and once again on May 27th, but has 41 relief appearances versus only six starts on the season, so kinda? Another was Brandon Sproat (3.2 IP | 4 ER) on April 4th in the second game of a double header after Logan Henderson (2 IP | 2 ER) started the game as an opener / 27th man call up. The other six - Megill (x2), Zerpa (x2), Anderson, and Uribe - were more traditional reliever blows the game type scenarios.

Will be an interesting follow for sure. Could see the case for trying to slip him through since he is still so far away, but could also see a pitching starved team plucking him and trying to slip him through the season as the last man in the bullpen. Could also be a candidate for Organizational Pitcher of the Year with the season he is having... 115 IP of 4.15 ERA | 4.49 FIP (78 ERA- | 85 FIP-) 126 K (3rd in MWL) | 51 BB (10.2 BB%) or maybe Jaron DeBerry... 119 IP of 4.31 ERA | 5.01 FIP (87 ERA- | 99 FIP-) 132 K (most in SL) | 60 BB (11.7 BB%) dark horse Braylon Owens... 93 IP of 4.04 ERA | 3.81 FIP (78 ERA- | 73 FIP-) 29.9 K% (best in system min. 60 IP) | 43 BB (10.9 BB%)

There are 42 players (before tonight) with at least 1,000 PA as a Brewers minor leaguer going back to Castillo's first season in 2021. Luis took his 1,600th PA this evening which puts him at #11 on the list, and he should pass Wes Clarke in 10th place with 1,618 PA by season's end. With 2,196 PA it looks like Eduardo Garcia just recently overtook Mayor of Biloxi Zavier Warren (2,189 PA) for the Number One Spot.

Through the first 26 games when the Brewers were sitting at 13 W - 13 L the relievers had some of the following ranks among MLB bullpens... 8 L (3rd most) | 109 AVG+ (27th) | -1.50 WPA (25th) | 95 LOB+ (19th) | 102 ERA- (16th) | 88 FIP- (7th) Over the 109 games since then and before tonight the relievers have these rankings among MLB bullpens... 11 L (fewest) | 87 AVG+ (1st) | +8.58 WPA (2nd) | 106 LOB+ (2nd) | 73 ERA- (3rd) | 84 FIP- (2nd) Put it all together and in 2024 the bullpen had +13.14 WPA (2nd), in 2025 it was +5.03 WPA (10th), so far this year it is +7.08 WPA (2nd), and in total from 2024 through 2026 they are at +25.25 WPA (2nd) from their relievers. CLE relievers are first with +28.35 WPA over that stretch while the Braves bullpen is third at +19.59 WPA.

Do not. I normally just go to BRef and compile manually for stuff like that. Would imagine it would be pretty easy to whip up some kind of runs scored / runs allowed matrix with minimal coding skills, kind of surprised there isn't an easily accessible one out there somewhere. Looks like the Brewers have had 43 games this year where they scored two or three runs with a 14 W - 29 L (.326 W%) record in those games. Some other NL contender records when scoring two or three runs in a game this season... LAD (11 W - 26 L | .297 W%) ATL (13 W - 16 L | .448 W%) CHC (9 W - 16 L | .360 W%) PHI (11 W - 15 L | .423 W%) SDP (12 W - 29 L | .293 W%) ARI (10 W - 19 L | .345 W%) Throw in another 11 losses when the Brewers have scored zero or one runs in a game and that leaves a 70 W - 11 L record (.864 W%) when they've score four or more runs this year.

19 Double Digit Games = 232 Runs Scored = 12.21 R/G = 19 W - 0 L 117 Single Digit Games = 488 Runs Scored = 4.17 R/G = 58 W - 59 L 10 Double Digit Games = 138 Runs Scored = 13.80 R/G = 10 W - 0 L 125 Single Digit Games = 536 Runs Scored = 4.29 R/G = 74 W - 51 L

With headliners like Corbin Burnes (167 IP of 58 ERA- | 38 FIP-), Brandon Woodruff (179 IP of 61 ERA- | 69 FIP-), and Freddy Peralta (144 IP of 67 ERA- | 73 FIP-) plus showstoppers like Josh Hader (58 IP of 29 ERA- | 39 FIP-) and Devin Williams (54 IP of 59 ERA- | 66 FIP-), the 2021 Brewers pitching staff posted an 83 ERA- and 87 FIP- that are the lowest full season marks in Franchise History. Of the 13 pitchers with the most innings only Brett Anderson (100 ERA- | 103 FIP-), Adrian Houser (101 FIP-), and Aaron Ashby (108 ERA-) posted an ERA or FIP that was average or worse. Here we are five years later and now its headliners like MISIO (151 IP of 42 ERA- | 51 FIP-), Kyle Harrison (103 IP of 68 ERA- | 79 FIP-), and Logan Henderson (76 IP of 60 ERA- | 79 FIP-) plus showstoppers like Trevor Megill (51 IP of 55 ERA- | 42 FIP-) and Abner Uribe (48 IP of 50 ERA- | 74 FIP-) that are helping the 2026 Brewers put up an 82 ERA- and 85 FIP- so far. Of the 13 pitchers with the most innings only Brandon Sproat (128 ERA- | 122 FIP-), Robert Gasser (112 ERA- | 107 FIP-), and Grant Anderson (103 FIP-) have posted a worse than average ERA or FIP. It's happening again.

Not sure if Fischer is a legit third baseman, he's made 18 errors in 84 games at the hot corner this year and has started his last 14 games in the field at first base. The monthly PA splits for the 13th man on the roster have been 22, 23, 39, 29, and only 15 so far in August. Considering the 14th man is likely to play even less than that (Rhys Hoskins got 10 PA as the 14th Man last September, Monasterio got 14 PA as the 14th Man in September 2024) I'd guess the Brewers will want prospects like Fischer or Adams to continue getting regular reps in the minors and just call up someone like Naylor or Lockridge who is already on the 40 Man.

More or less the same thing that the Giants got after we traded him to them in 2022, and the same thing the Rays got when they sold him to the White Sox for cash considerations this past December. The good news items relevant to Tristan Peters would be that (1) the individual who traded him away is now employed by the Mets, and (2) the Brewers have the best record in MLB this year (again) playing well above anyone's reasonable expectations entering the season (hey, kinda like Tristan Peters is) and have a future OF stocked with options like Chourio, Mitchell, Lara, Frelick, Adamczewski, Payne, Strosnider, Antunez, etc. If the Brewers had 71 or 72 wins fighting with the Padres and Diamondbacks for the last Wild Card spot looking up at the Cubs in the Central (like the season was supposed to play out according to the experts) this would be a lot more concerning to me, but given the reality we are living in is markedly better than that (again) it's more of a Way To Go Tristan from me.

Also kind of funny that one play where the literal Little League infield played a major role is used as a metaphor for Hamilton's defensive shortcomings, but no mention of the rare 5-3 double play (requiring both his above average range and athleticism for a 3B) that he pulled off in very the same game.

Hamilton has +7 DRS versus 0 FRV at 3B so far this year and this is a case where I think the truth is probably closer to what DRS is coming up with. As a whole DRS says the Brewers have saved 41 runs (7th) for the season, but FRV says only two runs saved (14th). Considering their 3.56 FIP is the lowest in MLB and they've still managed to shave 0.14 runs off of that to get to a 3.42 ERA (and from watching the games) I'd guess that DRS is doing a better job capturing their defensive performance this year (again). Going back to 2023 they've shaved an MLB best 0.38 runs per game from their 3.99 FIP (6th) to their 3.61 ERA (1st). They've demonstrated a pretty steadfast commitment to the defense as a key element of the run prevention symbiosis. Do we think it's more likely the Brewers internal metrics are spitting out results closer to their +175 DRS over that time or their +114 FRV? Both totals rank 3rd in MLB over that stretch so it's mostly just a matter of scale, about 0.28 runs per game in the estimation of DRS, or about 0.18 runs per game in the estimation of FRV. With +61 DRS versus +17 FRV for his career, Brice Turang accounts for 72% of the 61 run difference between the Brewers team DRS and FRV since 2023 all by himself.

How deep is the Brewers minor league infield pool? They mentioned ten prospects in the article who are all in the org Top Twenty and you could still make a whole other infield out of intriguing guys they have outside the Top 25... 1B Bitonti (#26 | 434 PA of 126 wRC+ at A+ | 22 HR / 22 SB) 2B O'Rae (UR | 394 PA of 113 wRC+ at AA | 50 SB) SS Dickinson (UR | 447 PA of 127 RC+ at A+ | 51 SB) 3B Matos (UR | 228 PA of 149 wRC+ in DSL | 10 HR / 19 SB) UT Ortuno (UR | 455 PA of 108 wRC+ at A | 37 SB)