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So far this year Misio is at 178 K+ | 88 BB+ | 59 HR+ | 47 ERA- | 53 FIP-. After last night Kyle is at 146 K+ | 83 BB+ | 56 HR+ | 44 ERA- | 61 FIP-. Truly insane stuff. Ashby in his Age 28 season is the Old Man of all the Young Guns, so using that as the cutoff Brewers pitchers age 28 and younger this year have 332 IP (2nd in MLB) with a 74 ERA- (2nd) and 79 FIP- (3rd). The teams with better ERA- and FIP- have 127 and 155 IP respectively. The Brewers 7.5 rWAR and 6.5 fWAR from pitchers age 28 and under are both tops in MLB a full win ahead of CLE in second. Anyway, would imagine any extension offer for Kyle would have to exceed Spencer Strider's six years $75M signed all the way back in 2022 so probably would take something like $100M at this point with four years of MLB inflation. When Spencer signed he had just posted 131 IP of 169 K+ | 103 BB+ | 43 HR+ | 65 ERA- | 48 FIP-.

How much difference does a three game series in May make? FanGraphs NL Central Projections (0517) CHC: 88.4 W | 46.2% WinDiv MIL: 86.2 W | 28.8% WinDiv PIT: 83.6 W | 15.2% WinDiv STL: 81.3 W | 7.9% WinDiv CIN: 77.5 W | 1.8% WinDiv FanGraphs NL Central Projections (0521) MIL: 88.6 W | 46.6% WinDiv CHC: 86.6 W | 28.5% WinDiv PIT: 83.7 W | 14.4% WinDiv STL: 81.9 W | 8.2% WinDiv CIN: 78.2 W | 2.3%WinDiv And a couple two tree Divisional Leaderboards with MLB ranks in parentheses... Runs Per Game MIL (5.04 | 4th) PIT (4.94 | 6th) CHC (4.92 | 7th) STL (4.52 | 11th) CIN (4.42 | 14th) Runs Allowed Per Game MIL (3.45 | 3rd) CHC (4.36 | 13th) PIT (4.49 | 16th) STL (4.54 | 18th) CIN (4.98 | 25th) Run Differential MIL (+75 | 3rd) CHC (+28 | 6th) PIT (+22 | 7th) STL (-1 | 13th) CIN (-28 | 24th)

Pitching, mostly. Brewers have allowed the 3rd fewest runs per game at 3.52 versus the Cubs being much closer to average at 4.35 RA/G (13th). For all the holes in the lineup, the Brewers (5.04 R/G) have also scored at the same pace as the more well rounded Cubs lineup (5.02 R/G).

Yeah, believe the tacked balls were first half of 2023 when Chourio was in Biloxi, then he went off on a tear shortly after they switched back to the regular balls.

@wiguy94 posted some numbers awhile back showing that all of the Brewers affiliate leagues have seen big jumps in OPS over last year. Currently its at Southern League (.740 vs .660 last year), Midwest League (.767 vs .693), and Carolina League (.719 vs .665). Believe FanGraphs prospector Brendan Gawlowski has also mentioned his suspicions that something is up with the minor league balls this year.

After 46 games last year the Brewers were 21 W - 25 L sitting six games out of first place with a -10 run differential. Since then, the Brewers 104 W - 58 L record is the best in baseball with the Yankees in 2nd at 98 W - 69 L, while the Cubs and Dodgers are tied for the next spots at 94 W - 71 L. Over these past 162 games here are some of the Brewers ranks... POSITION PLAYERS 845 R (1st) | .263 AVG (1st) | .340 OBP (1st) | .145 ISO (25th) 111 wRC+ (2nd) | +10.7 BsR (1st) | 19.8 K% (3rd) | 0.49 BB/K (1st) 6.9 Barrel% (28th) | 39.2 HardHit% (23rd) | .329 wOBA (2nd) PITCHERS 593 R (1st) | 3.33 ERA (1st) | 3.55 xERA (1st) | 3.61 FIP (1st) 25.3 K% (1st) | 0.94 HR9 (1st) | .223 AVG (2nd) | 1.19 WHIP (2nd) 76.0 LOB% (2nd) | -0.28 ERA/FIP (5th) | 37.9 HardHit% (1st)

Out Getter. Going back to last year, there are 144 pitchers in MLB with at least 100 IP as a starter. Here are some of Patrick's vitals along with their ranks on that leaderboard... 140 IP (105th) | 119 FB+ (17th) | 73 HR+ (19th) 107 K+ (47th) | 103 BB+ (103rd) | 102 K/BB+ (80th) 100 AVG+ (68th) | 100 WHIP+ (86th) | 109 LOB+ (29th) 82 ERA- (35th) | 86 FIP- (35th) | 103 xFIP- (89th) 3.4 rWAR (48th) | 2.9 fWAR (45th) Despite an innings total just outside the Top 100, Chad has put up bottom line production just inside the Top 50...and that might not even be enough for him to crack the Brewers Top Five SP. Pretty good stuff. With K/BB rates that are nothing special though, the whole enterprise has been propped up by getting really good HR prevention despite one of the higher fly ball rates in the pool with an assist from stranding runners at an above average clip. His xFIP- shows how much of a tightrope he has walked during those 140 IP. If we look at how some of those rate stats move around during Patrick's 19 regular season IP out of the bullpen things like his fly ball rate (124 FB+) and K rate (109 K+) are pretty much the same. His HR rate goes up a bit (84 HR+), but improvements in his walk rate (75 BB+) and hit limiting (90 AVG+) have resulted in fewer base runners (80 WHIP+). Put it all together, with a slight uptick in strand rate (113 LOB+) to boot, and Chad comes out at 68 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 93 xFIP- in his limited pen time. Between Priester & Woodruff's health issues, Sproat's inconsistency & 75 to 85 pitch ceiling, plus none of Henderson, Crow & Gasser really being built up for a full season's workload just yet, I'd guess that Patrick bounces back and forth between the bullpen and rotation as needed throughout the rest of the season.

Looks like there are 54 pitchers with at least 20 IP in the Southern League here to start the season. Some of Stiven Cruz's ranks so far... 0.75 WHIP (1st) | 34.1 K% (2nd) | 3.7 BB% (2nd) | 52.9 FB% (2nd) | 2.80 FIP (3rd) | 2.38 ERA (5th) | .177 AVG (7th)

Rob Z with a ten pitch 3U3D2K frame in the Sounds win. Wande Torres put up his best start of the year going six scoreless with 2 H | 1 BB | 6 K before the bullpen theatrics.

Buxton has a full NTC and has publicly stated his desire to retire as a Twin. If he moves off that position and is put on the market there would be substantial interest. His lengthy injury history is already priced into the contract at only $15M annually for a guy that averaged 382 PA | 134 wRC+ | 3.3 WAR per season since 2021 and is already at 185 PA of 144 wRC+ for 1.8 WAR this year.

During this current 14 W - 5 L stretch the Brewers are on they've had Perkins (18 PA of -53 wRC+), Sanchez (39 PA of 54 wRC+), Hamilton (47 PA of 55 wRC+), Mitchell (63 PA of 63 wRC+), and Rengifo (65 PA of 71 wRC+) acting as varying degrees of boat anchors. Sal (74 PA of 86 wRC+) and Joey (45 PA of 90 wRC+) have been below average too but at least closer to respectability. The rest of the offense has been good enough to render all that essentially moot though with a 109 wRC+ (4th) and scoring 5.26 R/G (2nd) over the past 19 games. Of course the pitchers running the gauntlet with a 2.34 ERA | 2.77 xERA | 2.69 FIP | 3.02 SIERA | 30.2 K% | 0.59 HR9 | 1.06 WHIP | 81.4 LOB% (all of which are best in MLB over the last 19 games) has helped too. Put it all together and that's a +53 run differential over these last 19 games.

Something else to consider is even if the Brewers have "lost" this trade so far what has it really cost them? Maybe one win at most? Zerpa was credited with two losses and -0.38 WPA before getting hurt. Mears has a shinier ERA (with some ugly peripherals under the hood) but has also been credited with two losses and -0.11 WPA. Isaac Collins has a 92 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR.

2024 their 52 W - 41 L record against teams .500 or better was 2nd best in MLB, 2025 their 46 W - 38 L record was 3rd, so far this year their 15 W - 6 L record is thee best in MLB. Another good one is how exaggerated the Brewers struggles against LHP get blown up in the IGTs. Since 2024 they have a perfectly cromulent 101 wRC+ (13th) against LHP, they were an MLB best 29 W - 18 L vs LHP last year, and are 9 W - 5 L so far this year despite missing two of their best RH hitters (plus Yelich who had a fine 109 wRC+ vs LHP from 2024-25) for most of the season.

Alexander Frias continues to rake (156 wRC+ over 42 PA before tonight) with a single, double, two walks, and three stolen bags though the AZ Crew trails 11 to 8 in the eighth. Some other box highlights so far include Brailyn Antunez with his first double stateside (and a walk), Kenny Fenelon with a double and single, and Malachai Halterman with a pair of singles.

Coming into the game Imanaga had a 2.32 ERA that was a half a run better than his 2.84 FIP, and a 3.25 xFIP that thought he'd been getting a little lucky at HR suppression in the early going too. After the game he has a 3.38 ERA | 3.39 FIP | 3.49 xFIP, instant regression.

PECOTA quite handily (94.0 wins to 86.9 wins) and FanGraphs by a narrower margin (88.4 wins to 86.2 wins) are still favoring the Cubs at this point in the season. However, we know that PECOTA and the default FanGraphs projections have less than stellar histories when it comes to forecasting Brewers win totals. If we flip FanGraphs over to their Season to Date mode it swings things in the Brewers favor at 97.4 wins versus 93.2 wins for Chicago. The midpoint of the two FanGraphs projections is 92 wins. Over the eight full seasons from 2017 to 2025 the Brewers won 734 games, or 91.75 per season.

Bauers is a great example of how real the struggle of hitting MLB pitching truly is. Glad that perseverance is finally paying off with the Brewers. 2018-24 Bauers (1,744 PA | 84 wRC+) 134 BB+ | 129 K+ | 84 AVG+ | 90 ISO+ 108 LD+ | 87 GB+ | 111 FB+ | 93 BABIP+ 109 Pull+ | 92 Cent+ | 96 Oppo+ [getting that many opportunities with such poor results as a corner only guy is pretty remarkable] 2025 Bauers (218 PA | 114 wRC+) 172 BB+ | 124 K+ | 95 AVG+ | 106 ISO+ 113 LD+ | 82 GB+ | 113 FB+ | 104 BABIP+ 96 Pull+ | 107 Cent+ | 96 Oppo+ [big upticks across the board with a slightly diminished K rate and it looking like more of an up the middle approach versus his previous pull-centric approach being a driver of the change] 2026 Bauers (151 PA | 135 wRC+) 117 BB+ | 100 K+ | 116 AVG+ | 139 ISO+ 72 LD+ | 111 GB+ | 101 FB+ | 115 BABIP+ 107 Pull+ | 94 Cent+ | 99 Oppo+ [trading walks, strikeouts and balls in the air for a lot more ground balls with a corresponding rise in his BABIP/batting average. Back to a more pull heavy approach too which might help explain the uptick in ISO despite the downturn in line drives and fly balls] Put it all together and after posting a .306 xwOBA | 88.4 EV | 8.5 Barrel% | 37.6 HardHit% over those 1,744 PA from 2018 thru 2024 he has upped his game to the tune of a .355 xwOBA | 92.3 EV | 31.2 Barrel% | 49.8 HardHit% over his last 369 PA.

Because the BRef playoff odds estimate team quality based on “their performance over the last 100 team games (even if it spans multiple seasons)” so they are still slightly more influenced by the end of last season than the beginning of this season.

I would guess the Brewers wouldn't really trust him anywhere but LF, maybe 2B in a pinch. So far in AAA this year his breakdown has been LF (149 innings), 2B (67 innings), 1B (18 innings), and RF (14 innings). Last time he got a write up from FanGraphs as an Other Prospect of Note in the Tigers system back in 2024 they said he can kind of play all over but wasn't an especially good defender at any one spot, when he was traded at the 2023 deadline they noted his 50/55 hit tool but no true defensive home.

Fun stuff looking at everyone's ballots. Henderson, Drohan, Gasser, Crow, Pratt, Lara, Williams (hopefully not Quero) makes seven or eight guys with pretty decent shots at graduating before the season ends to open up some spots for new guys too (cough **CJ Hughes & Rylan Mills** cough).

Let's say you wanted to assemble a top flight reliever. You'd probably want somebody who strikes out a bunch of guys, throws a bunch of grounders to limit home runs in today's oftentimes all or nothing game, and then strands the base runners that do manage to reach in the meantime. As it turns out, there are 133 pitchers with at least 100 relief IP going back to the start of 2024 with Aaron Ashby coming in at a 141 K+ (15th), 142 GB+ (6th), 29 HR+ (3rd), and 118 LOB+ (2nd). Of the fourteen pitchers with a higher K rate the next highest ground ball rates are Andres Munoz (150 K+ | 121 GB+) and Griffin Jax (151 K+ | 118 GB+). Among the ground ball rate leaders the next best K rates belong to Jhoan Duran (151 GB+ | 131 K+), Brendan Little (154 GB+ | 115 K+), and Camilo Doval (133 GB+ | 122 K+). Some other guys a little further down the K/GB combo list over that same stretch would be Abner (127 K+ | 121 GB+), Louis Varland (121 K+ | 124 GB+), and Adrian Morejon (116 K+ | 124 GB+). Put it all together and Ashby's 57 FIP- is fourth on leaderboard behind Aroldis Chapman, Mason Miller, and Cade Smith while his 47 ERA- is second on the leaderboard behind only Emmanuel Clase.

Yeah, there are 1,179 pitchers with at least 110 IP in the minors since 2024. In addition to being first in ERA (1.00), Craig is also second with a 37.1 K%, second with a 27.2 K-BB%, second with a 0.15 HR9, second with a 1.64 FIP, first with a .151 average against, fourth with a 0.94 WHIP. Not quite as dominant, but his 53.4 GB% lands him at 49th so when guys do make contact they are generally putting it on the ground.

"Catcher who has a max EV of 110 via PBR" Probably a little young to be slamming Pabst Blue Ribbons, but if it works who am I to judge?

Murakami so far this year is at 18.4 BB% + 33.7 K% + 7.9 HR% for an even 60%. Rob Deer comes in at a career 49.1 3TO% (49.8% if we include his 32 HBP) so 50% is probably a good line of demarcation and we can grandfather Rob in as the Charter Member. Not a perfect analog since ISO includes all extra base hits and not just Home Runs, but looking at the plus stats can be a good guide too. Like Sanchez this year has a 202 BB+ (5th of 253 batters min. 100 PA) and 161 ISO+ (24th) but only a 97 K+ (124th), so I'd say he's more 2.5TO with the extreme BB and ISO rates but the slightly better than average K rate. For his career he is at 47.8% so definitely in the neighborhood.

Should get more interesting once they all start playing each other a little bit more. So far NLC teams have only played 44 Divisional games, but have played 88 InterLeague games with a combined 56 W - 32 L record.