sveumrules

Pretty stacked field this year, so doubt Pratt (1.6 fWAR and 1.7 bWAR) or Lara (-0.1 fWAR and 1.2 bWAR) end up on any ballots. Logan Henderson on the other hand...his 3.7 Runs Allowed WAR at FanGraphs is tied with Nolan McLean for most among rookie NL hurlers, and Henderson edges him out 3.3 to 3.0 per BRef WAR despite pitching 81 fewer innings. Those extra innings do give Nolan (3.59 FIP | 3.5 fWAR) the edge in the default FIP WAR at FanGraphs over Logan (3.32 FIP | 2.4 fWAR) though. Will be interesting to see if the old school heads reward Sal Stewart (2.0 fWAR and 1.8 bWAR) for his shiny RBI total ahead of more well rounded players like Wetherholt (4.6 fWAR and 4.5 bWAR), Benge (4.3 fWAR and 4.3 bWAR), and even fellow first baseman TJ Rumfield (2.5 fWAR and 3.5 bWAR).

It makes for good optics sure, but more importantly it also makes for winning baseball. Most wins in MLB this year, most wins in MLB last year, most wins in MLB total since 2024. One hundred more wins than losses over the three years Murphy has managed the club. Plus forty nine wins over their preseason projections at FanGraphs during those three years. The Cubs were supposed to win the division each of the last three years per the preseason prognosticators, instead they finished a total of twenty nine games behind the Brewers since Murphy got here. After all the consternation around the trade deadline, and two of the three acquisitions flopping hard, plus Harrison's continued pumpkin-ization on top of it all, (not to mention all the wrong lineup and bullpen decisions made by Murphy per the IGTs) the Brewers went out and put up an MLB best 34 W - 16 L record after the deadline anyway. After all the consternation from the online fanbase about his benching of Pratt the Brewers went an MLB best 22 W - 8 L to close out the season afterward. Overblown nonsense indeed.

You left out the part where Brewers catchers had the third most challenges (254), the third most overturns (143) and the third most positive run value (+14.0) behind the plate. Considering the Brewers 125 batter initiated reviews were the second fewest in all of MLB, it seems like focus of their challenge strategy was to mostly save them for the run prevention side.

Crow certainly had a nice year in AAA with 105 IP of 77 ERA- and 84 FIP-, but I think I would have probably voted for Braylon Owens with 93 IP of 78 ERA- and 73 FIP- between Wisconsin and Biloxi for the #1 spot personally. Owens 29.9 K% was also the best in the system (min. 70 IP) and well ahead of Crow's 23.3 K%. Also would have probably voted for Wande Torres at 122 IP of 84 ERA- and 88 FIP- with a 24.4 K% ahead of Manuel Rodriguez at 133 IP of 96 ERA- and 111 FIP- with a 20.9 K%. Even giving Rodriguez some extra credit for being a year younger at a higher level, Wande just flat pitched better.

Not at all, Yelich's few positive outcomes this year have come at the most needed times... Bases Empty 256 PA of 80 wRC+ Runners On 244 PA of 104 wRC+ Scoring Position 150 PA of 127 wRC+ Low Leverage 228 PA of 71 wRC+ Medium Leverage 223 PA of 100 wRC+ High Leverage 49 PA of 151 wRC+ Two Outs 160 PA of 63 wRC+ One Out 156 PA of 94 wRC+ No Outs 184 PA of 114 wRC+ Trailing in Game 141 PA of .747 OPS (117 sOPS+) Late and Close 71 PA of .809 OPS (132 sOPS+) Runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs 33 PA of 1.080 OPS (157 sOPS+) Put all those ascending situational splits together and out of 267 players with at least 300 PA this season Yelich finished with +1.34 Win Probability Added (59th, fractions behind Chourio at +1.35) and a 1.64 Clutch Score that was 9th highest on the same leaderboard.

Great recognition for Fischer, and another successful summer on the farm. Looks like the Brewers had 13 players in the minors with at least 300 PA and a 120 wRC+ this year (twelve if you don't count Ragsdale) from Fischer at a 162 wRC+ (1.7 years younger than average in AA) down to Eric Bitonti with a 122 wRC+ (2.1 years younger than average in A+) and guys like Lara (144 | 5 years younger than average in AAA), Adamczewski (142 | 2.7 years younger than average in AA), Antunez (133 | 2.3 years younger than average in A), Burke (127 | 3.1 years younger than average in AAA), Payne (127 | 4.7 years younger than average in AA), and Ebel (124 | 4.1 years younger than average in A+) sprinkled in between. Here's how many players other organizations had that met that same 300 PA / 120 wRC+ criteria... CLE (17) LAD (17) DET (12) MIN (11) WAS (11) ATL (10) CIN (10) TBR (10) CHC (9) STL (9) TEX (9) NYY (8) PIT (8) BOS (7) COL (7) SEA (7) TOR (7) KCR (6) LAA (6) SFG (6) BAL (5) CHW (5) ARI (4) HOU (4) MIA (4) PHI (3) SDP (3) ATH (2) NYM (2) ...not quite in the elite category with the Guardians and Dodgers, but right at the top of that next group. For the longest time the ding was that the Brewers couldn't develop position players, but they've gotten an MLB best 83.4 WAR from position players age 28 and under since Arnold took over in 2023, twenty more wins than the Royals and Cubs tied for second at 63.4 WAR.

Guys like Ohtani (139 wRC+), Betts (114 wRC+), and Freeman (120 wRC+) had down years, but they have long track records of success so the projections are still buying in on them to positively regress to a 156, 123, and 126 wRC+ respectively. On the flip side guys like Turang (126 wRC+ last two years), Bauers (148 wRC+ since 9/5/25), and Vaughn (138 wRC+ with MIL) have been ascendent, but also have large-ish samples of less encouraging results before that so are still being projected for regression to a 109, 123, and 108 wRC+ respectively. Ultimately, I think it comes down to the FG projections heavily weighting the playing time towards star players for the postseason and the Dodgers have the most star players with long track records to support better projections. On the PECOTA side all I can really think of is that even though the Rays have the hard draw on the AL East side of the bracket, it is still an easier draw than the slate of potential opponents the Brewers have to face. Would guess if it comes down to a MIL / TBR World Series that PECOTA would favor the Brewers, but they just get knocked out somewhere along the way beforehand in the simulations more often than the Rays do.

Best record in MLB this year, and last year, and over the last three years with the Brewers at a 293 W - 193 L record since Murphy took over. One Hundred more wins than losses. Even with May and Senzatela putting up 57 IP of -1.69 WPA (JoJo was small sample OK though with 13 IP of 81 ERA- | 92 FIP- and +0.28 WPA) the Brewers still managed an MLB best 34 W - 16 L record after the trade deadline. While the Padres were blazing hot at 17 W - 3 L to close the season out the Brewers were just humming along at a 15 W - 4 L clip over the same date range. With RISP since 2024 the Brewers have 247 more PA than the Cubs in second place, their 118 wRC+ with RISP is also tops just ahead of the expensive star studded Dodgers (117) and Yankees (116) lineups, add it all up and they've scored 82 more runs than the Diamondbacks in second place over the last three seasons with Murphy setting the tone and expectations. Last year, BaseRuns thought the Brewers should have scored around 4.77 R/G (10th) with neutral sequencing. They actually scored 4.98 R/G (3rd) due in large part that RISP performance plus elite base advancement (+14.4 XBR | 1st). This year BaseRuns thought they should have scored around 4.92 R/G (3rd) with neutral sequencing. They actually scored 5.14 R/G (2nd) again adding an extra two tenths of a run per game with their RISP performance and a cut in half but still MLB best +7.1 XBR advancing bases on batted balls. During the 2017 to 2023 run of winning at least 86 games every full season, winning the sixth most games in all of MLB, I pretty much believed that was the best we could hope for as small market fans at the bottom end of a tilted financial landscape. Wild to think that Stearns and Counsell leaving of their own volition for perceived greener pastures would end up being the best thing that ever happened for a franchise that's improved season over season over season for three years running now. All that's left to do is win eleven games in October.

The field is set and the 2026 Postseason starts tomorrow. Some World Series Win Percents from various sources... PECOTA TBR (19.2%) MIL (18.5%) LAD (16.7%) CLE (11.5%) NYY (5.9%) HOU (4.6%) BOS (3.7%) CHW (3.1%) ATL (4.9%) CHC (4.7%) SDP (4.2%) PHI (3.0%) FanGraphs (Projections) LAD (37.8%) MIL (11.5%) CLE (9.1%) TBR (8.3%) NYY (6.6%) BOS (5.2%) HOU (3.4%) CHW (1.3%) PHI (5.6%) CHC (4.7%) ATL (3.7%) SDP (2.7%) FanGraphs (Season to Date) MIL (23.7%) LAD (18.9%) TBR (11.1%) CLE (7.0%) NYY (8.1%) BOS (5.7%) CHW (5.0%) HOU (2.6%) CHC (7.0%) ATL (5.3%) SDP (3.4%) PHI (2.3%) Baseball Reference MIL (18.6%) TBR (14.5%) LAD (12.4%) CLE (6.7%) BOS (8.0%) NYY (6.9%) CHW (6.3%) HOU (2.4%) CHC (11.1%) PHI (5.0%) SDP (4.7%) ATL (3.5%) ...think the FG Projections probably align the most with how baseball fans tend to think of the Dodgers relative to the rest of the field. Put em all together and the Brewers win the World Series in something like 18.1% of simulated future realities. I'll take those odds, don't really have any other choice. GO BREWERS !!

One of the best infield defenders in MLB, I think everyone can agree on that. The bat is a little tricker, his hot streak since July 4th has been incredible, but it's also been incredibly lucky with an actual .393 wOBA but only a .306 expected wOBA under the hood. For his career with the Brewers he has a .299 actual wOBA, a .292 expected wOBA, and a 91 wRC+. Combine that with his top end defense and out of 280 players with at least 800 PA since 2024 his 7.3 WAR comes in 78th. Personally I'd keep him around barring some team making an offer you can't refuse. If Made isn't interested in signing an extension before the season, and thus needs to marinate in AAA for awhile to get that extra year of service time (barring whatever changes might happen in the new CBA), Joey is the starting 3B on opening day. If Jesus extends and is the opening day 3B, Joey is a perfect 4th infielder to spell Turang against the occasional lefty, and give Pratt/Made a day off every week or so as they acclimate to their first full MLB seasons.

Thru May 31st .118 Isolated Slugging (30th) Since June 1st .158 Isolated Slugging (19th) Obviously the Brewers are not a power first team, but they have been much improved in that department since a slow start to the year. Last year's Blue Jays team that took the Dodgers to G7 had a .162 Isolated Slugging. Looking at the whole season numbers it probably isn't a coincidence that the three perpetually successful small market teams - MIL (.144 ISO | 25th), TBR (.143 ISO | 26th), and CLE (.139 ISO | 28th) - all land at the bottom of the Isolated Slugging leaderboard. When power is expensive and revenues are imbalanced, (smart) teams with less spending power need to find other ways to win ballgames if they even want to make the playoffs (or set franchise win records while winning the most games in MLB two years in a row). Jake Bauers is 21st in MLB among qualified batters with a .225 ISO this year, of the 20 players ahead of him only six are still with their original organization.

Because they were both dealing with injuries which prevented them from catching more.

Easy call on Gasser for me. Out of 104 pitchers with at least 50 IP since July 19th he is at a 72 ERA- (28th) and 84 FIP- (30th). Both the Phillies (29 W - 26 L vs LH starters | 57 W - 44 L vs RH starters) and Padres (21 W - 21 L vs LH starters | 66 W - 48 L vs RH starters) have been considerably worse against southpaw starting pitchers also if that's who we end up playing.

Since Arnold took over four has definitely been the Magic Number. 2023 3 or fewer (42.6% of games) 16 W - 53 L (.232 W%) 4 or more (57.4% of games) 76 W - 17 L (.826 W%) 2024 3 or fewer (43.2% of games) 22 W - 48 L (.314 W%) 4 or more (56.8% of games) 71 W - 21 L (.772 W%) 2025 3 or fewer (39.5% of games) 16 W - 48 L (.250 W%) 4 or more (60.5% of games) 81 W - 17 L (.827 W%) 2026 3 or fewer (38.5% of games) 16 W - 44 L (.267 W%) 4 or more (61.5% of games) 82 W - 14 L (.854 W%)

He proved he can really limit HR at Busch Stadium with only one home run allowed in 67.2 IP for an impossibly low 0.13 HR/9 pitching in STL. Over his other 73 IP everywhere else he has allowed 11 HR for a 1.36 HR/9. Put it all together and those STL innings are doing the heavy lifting for his 3.50 FIP | 84 FIP-. Normalize his HR/fly ball rate to league average via xFIP and he comes in at a 3.94 xFIP | 93 xFIP-. Of course both of those are way more encouraging than his 4.61 ERA (111 ERA-) or 4.41 xERA which are largely the result of him pitching much better with the bases empty (.649 OPS allowed) versus with runners on (.785 OPS allowed) this year, an exaggerated version of his career with a .666 OPS allowed bases empty compared to a .722 OPS allowed with runners on base. League average difference between bases empty OPS (.699) and runners on OPS (.743) during the Universal DH era is about 44 points so it looks like May (56 point difference) has been worse than average out of the stretch as evidenced by his 93 LOB+ this year (72nd of 75 pitchers min. 140 IP) and a 99 LOB+ (131st of 178 pitchers min. 450 IP) for his career. Put it all together and out of 80 pitchers with at least 250 IP the last two years, Dustin's +0.61 difference between his 4.17 FIP and 4.78 ERA is the fifth worst in MLB. I personally wouldn't be interested in a reunion, but I'd imagine some team will give him multiple years and eight figures based on his relative youth and perceived upside.

Definitely maybe. Samples are kind of small and mixed up between multiple players at SS/3B this year with Rengifo, Hamilton, Ortiz, and Pratt splitting time, but the last two years when we've had more regular players at each spot there has been some interesting accounting between DRS and FRV. 2024 Turang (+22 DRS | +5 FRV) Adames (-16 DRS | +1 FRV) Ortiz (+8 DRS | +9 FRV) 2B/SS/3B (+14 DRS | +15 FRV) 2025 Turang (+7 DRS | 0 FRV) Ortiz (-2 DRS | +10 FRV) Durbin (+5 DRS | +1 FRV) 2B/SS/3B (+10 DRS | +11 FRV) Both years the end results for 2B/SS/3B ended up more or less the same overall twixt the two systems, but the individual accounting (especially between SS/2B) varied quite a bit. This year that hasn't been the case at all with +37 DRS between 2B/SS/3B versus only +16 FRV for the same three spots, so its possible that 2024/25 equalling out was more coincidental than something actually baked into the equations. Looks like 2021 (-9 DRS | -20 FRV), 2022 (+13 DRS | -2 FRV), and 2023 (+27 DRS | +15 FRV) align more with the overall 2B/SS/3B results from this year too with DRS being considerably more favorable than FRV. Comparing the two systems for the outfielders as a whole... 2021 (+33 DRS | +7 FRV) 2022 (+14 DRS | +2 FRV) 2023 (+20 DRS | +18 FRV) 2024 (+37 DRS | +20 FRV) 2025 (+2 DRS | +12 FRV) 2026 (+25 DRS | +5 FRV) 2021-26 (+135 DRS | +65 FRV) I tend to think that whatever internal metrics the Brewers might have to measure defense likely spit out results closer to DRS. Going back to 2021 the Brewers -0.31 differential between their 3.95 FIP and 3.64 ERA is the best in MLB ahead of LAD with a 0.29 differential. Knowing that those two really smart teams have shaved three tenths of a run per game over the course of 966 team games leads me to believe that DRS (+262 for MIL, +174 for LAD) is doing a better job of capturing their actual defensive performance than FRV (+105 for MIL, +20 for LAD) does. Obviously with such disparate values the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, but with the Brewers selling out so hard for run prevention over the last six years I'd think they are doing it because they believe they are saving something like 40 plus runs per season (DRS), versus only like 17 or 18 runs per season (FRV).

MLB has averaged 85.5 playoff games per season during the four years of the current system. Doubt they go back to a system where the maximum would be 21 with majority of the league playing meaningless games for most of September on account of no more Wild Cards. Baseball is a Capitalist enterprise and Capitalism requires infinite growth. What's most likely once they expand to 32 teams will be an NFL inspired set up featuring two Leagues with four Divisions of four teams each. Ideally they wouldn't water down the playoff field further with a seventh team from each League, but Idealism often runs contrary to Capitalism. Maybe they'll go back to the 1969 to 1993 format at some point in the future when the coasts are underwater and they have to cut down on the number of teams due to the Mad Max style nomadic gangs terrorizing what's left of the barren wasteland we used to call home. I, for one, will welcome our Robot Overlords (if that's what it comes to)...

In 2025 the Brewers starting rotation threw 807 IP (26th) of 86 ERA- (4th) | 99 FIP- (12th) and tallied 17.1 rWAR (5th). Peralta (176 IP | 6.1 rWAR), Quintana (131 IP | 1.7 rWAR), and Priester (130 IP | 3.6 rWAR) accounted for 50% of the games started, 54% of the innings pitched, and 66.7% of the rWAR. With all three of those guys gone for different reasons (plus Woodruff getting hurt again, and Sproat bombing, and Harrison flopping in the second half, and Gasser having a rough first half, not to mention the abomination of Dustin May [whoops, just did]) the Brewers starting rotation this year has thrown 779 IP (20th) of 88 ERA- (6th) | 89 FIP- (4th) and tallied 15.9 rWAR (6th). Half the quantity and two turds of the quality gone from last year's rotation? No problem, bout to blow past 97 Wins anyway.

Looks like the offense has continued their upward trajectory over the couple weeks since our last update... September 5th to September 20th 6.46 R/G over 13 games 167 wRC+ with RISP For the season as a whole... .341 OBP (1st) | 10.6 BB% (1st) | 1,793 PA w/RISP (1st) | 119 wRC+ w/RISP (1st) | 645 R w/ RISP (1st) | 5.15 R/G (2nd) | .258 AVG (2nd) | 107 wRC+ (3rd) | +6.37 WPA (3rd) | 0.49 BB/K (3rd) | +8.0 BsR (3rd) | .322 xwOBA (4th) | .145 ISO (25th)

Jason Alexander of 2022 threw 71 innings 5.40 ERA | 5.34 FIP for -0.3 rWAR and -0.3 fWAR. If that is the standard then Shane Drohan easily clears the bar with 120 IP of 4.26 ERA and 3.77 FIP for 1.1 rWAR and 1.9 fWAR. His 80th percentile ZiPS before the season was a 4.06 ERA and 1.1 WAR. Misio's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 3.27 ERA and 2.8 WAR, he has put up a 1.89 ERA and 6.8 rWAR. Henderson's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 3.45 ERA and 1.8 WAR, he has put up a 2.51 ERA and 3.4 rWAR. Uribe's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 2.48 ERA and 1.8 WAR, he has put up a 2.08 ERA and 2.3 rWAR. Patrick's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 3.77 ERA and 2.2 WAR, he has put up a 3.13 ERA and 2.5 rWAR. Megill's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 2.35 ERA and 1.5 WAR, he has put up a 2.76 ERA and 1.6 rWAR. DL Hall's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 3.35 ERA and 1.1 WAR, he has put up a 2.09 ERA and 1.6 rWAR. That's over half the staff pitching to their 80th percentile or well above. Part of the "midas touch" is the continued development or sustained success of the pitchers already in the organization. If we're dinging Harrison for a Jekyll Hyde season with 57 IP of 38 ERA- | 58 FIP- followed by 55 IP of 169 ERA- | 138 FIP- (still shook out to 1.4 rWAR and a 14 W - 10 L record in his starts) then we should likewise give some credit for Gasser having a Hyde Jekyll season with 46 IP of 126 ERA- | 126 FIP- followed by 50 IP of 82 ERA- | 82 FIP- (shaking out to 1.2 rWAR and a 13 W - 7 L record in his starts) before throwing seven scoreless this afternoon.

The Brewers have the youngest staff in all of MLB per BRef and are allowing 3.90 runs per game, 5th lowest in MLB. Their 3.58 xERA is the lowest, 3.59 ERA is 2nd lowest, 3.61 SIERA is 2nd lowest, 3.72 FIP is 3rd lowest. 25.9 K% is the highest, .222 average allowed is 3rd lowest, 1.19 WHIP is 4th lowest, 103.9 EV90 is 2nd lowest, 37.2 HardHit% is 5th lowest. If you are bringing up a guy like Kuhnel as some kind of failure, why no mention of Garrett Stallings (81 IP of 80 FIP- in AAA, 14 IP of 42 FIP- in MLB) as a success? In the minors... Tyson Hardin (119 IP of 70 FIP-), Josh Knoth (87 IP of 87 FIP-), Cameron Wagoner (42 IP of 58 FIP-), Bishop Letson (94 IP of 91 FIP-), JD Thompson (61 IP of 81 FIP-), Braylon Owens (93 IP of 73 FIP-), Jaron DeBerry (128 IP of 105 FIP-), Jack Seppings (77 IP of 90 FIP-), Wande Torres (122 IP of 88 FIP-), Ethan Dorchies (113 IP of 101 FIP-), Jayden Dubanewicz (79 IP of 94 FIP-), Andrew Healy (82 IP of 89 FIP-), Jose Meneses (57 IP of 63 FIP-), Miqueas Mercedes (79 IP of 87 FIP-), Diustin Mayorquin (69 IP of 97 FIP-), Derlin Garcia (56 IP of 75 FIP-), Raymond Sarmiento (48 IP of 78 FIP-), Alexander Mercedes (34 IP of 73 FIP-), and Paul Hoff (44 IP of 66 FIP-) all turned in varying degrees of encouraging seasons with most of them being among the youngest pitchers in their respective leagues.

Gordon hasn't even pitched yet.

No doubt the Brewers will always be the underdog to the Dodgers, but they have been closing the gap. Before Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS the FanGraphs Playoff Odds gave the Brewers a 9.0 WinWS%. Before the start of the NLCS last year the FanGraphs Playoff Odds gave the Brewers an 11.4 WinWS%. Today, with eight games left in the regular season, the FanGraphs Playoff Odds give the Brewers a 14.8 WinWS%.

The point(s) were to get good regular season performances from May and Romero, en route to winning the Division, holding a Top Two seed to secure a bye, and then contributing towards winning some playoff games after that. The first hasn't come to fruition, the second has, the third looks imminent, and we'll find out about the fourth in October.

There's essentially a zero percent chance that we win the May/Romero trade from a surplus value standpoint. While neither have pitched particularly well combining for 40 IP of 0.1 rWAR and -0.57 WPA, it hasn't really impacted the bottom line. The Brewers went 69 W - 43 L (.616 W%) before the deadline and have gone 27 W - 15 L (.643 W%) since. How much of a "win" the trade could possibly end up being was almost always going to mostly come down to what happens in the playoffs. Here's to hoping Dustin & JoJo can get things turned around (or just run into some small sample luck) en route to eleven October wins.