sveumrules

Could just be a little mental break? From May 14th thru his last game on the 27th he had 50 PA of 081/300/108 (37 wRC+) with a 34.0 K%.

I think it's mostly a byproduct of having such a deep system, there were 15 more or less consensus guys in the May voting which left Dylan as one of like a dozen guys fighting it out for those last five or so spots, though it looks like he did make it onto seven ballots with a high rank of #13 so did get some love. With Drohan and Crow coming up on graduation, plus Pratt, Jett, Lara, Yoho and maybe even Hardin as possibilities by the end of the year that should open up a few slots in the Top 20. Guys like JD Thompson and Brock Wilken at the back of the list might be candidates to drop off too if their performance doesn't step up in the interim. But yeah, couldn't ask for a much better return from injury than to come back strong in the Southern League where he was so overmatched (298 PA of 67 wRC+) back in 2024. Thought it was kind of interesting how similar his line this year is to his stint with Carolina back in 2023... 2023 Carolina (107 PA) 330/439/375 (137 wRC+) 15.9 BB% | 13.1 K% .045 ISO | .387 BABIP 2026 Biloxi (220 PA) 313/436/381 (130 wRC+) 15.9 BB% | 17.3 K% .068 ISO | .388 BABIP 2029 Milwaukee ?!?!?!?!?

"continue to lose" is an interesting characterization for a team with the 3rd best winning percentage in MLB for the season as a whole and the best record in MLB since April 26th. The Brewers were on a 24 W - 8 L run before these last two losses, when you play to a .750 W% for over a month losses are inevitably incoming because that kind of pace just isn't sustainable over 162 games. For the season as a whole the Brewers .617 W% is a 100 win pace. Do we believe the Brewers are a true talent 100 win team? I know I'd take the under, but 98 or 99 would still be a new franchise record at least. If the Brewers can play to a 100 win pace punting on five roster spots (primarily because guys like Woodruff, Henderson, Koenig, Lockridge are injured [unless they aren't legit enough either]) how many teams do you believe actually run 26 deep? If that is your expectation you might be setting yourself up to never be satisfied.

The Brewers offense as currently constituted has received... 210 PA of 72 wRC+ from Sal Frelick 182 PA of 53 wRC+ from Luis Rengifo 164 PA of 78 wRC+ from David Hamilton 141 PA of 58 wRC+ from Joey Ortiz 74 PA of -7 wRC+ from Blake Perkins Put it all together and those five players have combined for -37.3 batting runs. Throw in another 43 brutal PA from Greg Jones and Luis Matos earlier in the season and that is 814 PA (36% of the team total) adding up to -43.1 batting runs. Fun side question, at the end of the year will those seven players PA be more or less than 36% of the team total? So three to four less than zero lineup spots per game, plus Chourio, Vaughn, and Yelich each missing sizable chunks of the season to date, and I'd say being 6th in MLB at 5.02 runs per game so far is more cause for celebration than for concern. The Brewers will undoubtedly make changes to the offense twixt now and September, so I'm not sure how relevant the offense as constructed today really is. Will adding rookies like Pratt, Jett, and/or Lara plus maybe trading for a bat at the deadline be enough to close the gap between the Brewers and the presumably more legit offenses of the Dodgers, Braves, Nationals, Pirates, and Yankees ahead of them in the R/G column? Probably not. Will it raise the floor of the bottom third of the lineup? Maybe, maybe not. The future is uncertain, but what is more certain is that should the Brewers ever happen to win a World Series before any of our peepholes close up on this world it will involve no shortage of miracles along the way, and probably won't be because they had a team that instilled the most confidence on an internet screen.

That is largely a function of Chourio, Vaughn, and Yelich being hurt for a good chunk of the season. Bauers has two fewer PA because they were still shielding him from LHP early in the year. Sal has gotten the majority of his PA in the 7th spot (88), followed by 8th (46), and 6th (41), plus six games batting leadoff (30 PA), and one in the five hole (5 PA).

Yeah, with 50 IP last year and a career high of 128 IP back in 2022 my best guess is the Brewers won't want Crow going much over 100 IP this year. Maybe planning to continue with the shorter starts (he's averaged about 80 pitches in his ten appearances this year) until he reaches a certain point then transition him to shorter relief outings.

Here is how their minor league numbers stack up going back to 2025... Hardin (144 IP) 3.50 ERA | 2.78 FIP | 2.94 xFIP 26.2 K% | 6.0 BB% | 0.50 HR9 47.3 Groundball% | 4.36 K/BB Crow (85 IP) 3.92 ERA | 3.25 FIP | 3.07 xFIP 29.5 K% | 7.4 BB% | 0.85 HR9 47.4 Groundball% | 3.96 K/BB I'd say the main differentiators are that Hardin is a little more built up at the moment with 96 IP last year versus only 50 IP for Crow coming off injury. Sounds like Coleman has more advanced secondaries leading to the better K rate, where I believe Tyson has a little more juice on the heater.

He's got two. Here is how Jackson's early season batting line compares to his overall 2024-25 numbers... 2024-25 (1,162 PA) 272/317/463 (115 wRC+) 5.9 BB% | 20.8 K% | 51.0 Swing% 2026 (112 PA) 284/348/431 (122 wRC+) 8.9 BB% | 26.8 K% | 45.5 Swing% Lowered swing rate leading to elevated BB and K rates is a pretty good indicator that he is trying to get his ideal approach dialed in. Let's see how long it took him to make those adjustments in his previous seasons... 2024 (first 176 PA) 207/251/323 (60 wRC+) 5.7 BB% | 27.3 K% | 52.2 Swing% 2024 (last 397 PA) 305/360/527 (144 wRC+) 7.3 BB% | 18.4 K% | 47.2 Swing% 2025 (first 209 PA) 236/254/419 (82 wRC+) 1.9 BB% | 22.5 K% | 56.4 Swing% 2025 (last 380 PA) 289/338/488 (127 wRC+) 6.8 BB% | 19.5 K% | 51.5 Swing% If the last couple years are any indicator sometime in the next 50 to 100 PA or so Jackson should figure things out, which could be extra scary since he is already starting from a much higher early baseline than in either of his other two seasons.

Hardin last pitched on 0528 and Crow last pitched on 0529 so starting them tomorrow and Thursday in that order would would give each that extra fifth days rest between appearances. With a full 40 Man and no other real good options to send back down to Nashville on the active roster it could finally mean a DFA for Woodford if Tyson is indeed getting the call.

Home stadium was one of my first thoughts too, but StatCast actually has Oracle with slightly higher overall Park Factors (98 3yr | 97 for 2026) than AmFam (97 3yr | 96 for 2026). Looks like the elevated HR factor that primarily propped up scoring at Miller Park has dwindled over the years... 2011 3yr HR Factor: 121 2014 3yr HR Factor: 132 2017 3yr HR Factor: 112 2020 3yr HR Factor: 110 2023 3yr HR Factor: 109 2026 3yr HR Factor: 103

Misio's game log on BRef has two starts on standard four days rest this year, seven starts with an extra fifth day of rest, and then two more on six days rest.

I'm seeing 63.1 IP at AAA, then 66 IP in MLB, plus another 12 IP in the postseason totaling 141.1 IP for Misio last year.

There had been some talk in yesterday's IGT about who the most consistently good Brewers hitter is so I thought I'd pull some splits going back to July of last year when Vaughn joined the team and see what they have to say about things... Contreras (559 PA | 120 wRC+) vsRHP: 406 PA of 122 wRC+ vsLHP: 153 PA of 115 wRC+ Home: 280 PA of 158 wRC+ Away: 279 PA of 82 wRC+ Empty: 297 PA of 108 wRC+ Runners: 262 PA of 135 wRC+ Turang (556 PA | 140 wRC+) vsRHP: 395 PA of 157 wRC+ vsLHP: 161 PA of 99 wRC+ Home: 281 PA of 158 wRC+ Away: 275 PA of 123 wRC+ Empty: 306 PA of 110 wRC+ Runners: 250 PA of 179 wRC+ Yelich (426 PA | 122 wRC+) vsRHP: 289 PA of 122 wRC+ vsLHP: 137 PA of 122 wRC+ Home: 205 PA of 135 wRC+ Away: 221 PA of 110 wRC+ Empty: 222 PA of 108 wRC+ Runners: 204 PA of 137 wRC+ Vaughn (327 PA | 147 wRC+) vsRHP: 213 PA of 109 wRC+ vsLHP: 114 PA of 220 wRC+ Home: 160 PA of 163 wRC+ Away: 167 PA of 133 wRC+ Empty: 156 PA of 172 wRC+ Runners: 171 PA of 125 wRC+ Chourio (322 PA | 126 wRC+) vsRHP: 244 PA of 125 wRC+ vsLHP: 78 PA of 131 wRC+ Home: 160 PA of 104 wRC+ Away: 162 PA of 148 wRC+ Empty: 189 PA of 143 wRC+ Runners: 133 PA of 102 wRC+ Bauers (295 PA | 132 wRC+) vsRHP: 239 PA of 141 wRC+ vsLHP: 56 PA of 94 wRC+ Home: 148 PA of 128 wRC+ Away: 147 PA of 135 wRC+ Empty: 154 PA of 134 wRC+ Runners: 141 PA of 129 wRC+ Adding up the total deviance for each of those six splits from their overall wRC+ mark in bold italics gives us a most to least consistent order of Yelich (54), Bauers (59), Chourio (91), Contreras (110), Turang (162), and Vaughn (188).

Overall production is pretty similar with the Brewers at an even 100 wRC+ for the season while the Giants are a couple points back at a 98 wRC+. I'd say the Giants lower run scoring is probably a convergence of a few different factors working in conjunction... Shape of Production: while their wRC+ marks are pretty close, how the two teams have gotten there is quite different. The Brewers have an OBP heavy 334/366 line, while the Giants are SLG heavy at 300/403 with a 5.9 BB% that is historically bad. Runners in Scoring Position: with their high OBP / low SLG approach the Brewers have gotten 100 more PA with RISP (652 to 552), and have hit much better in those opportunities (135 to 91 wRC+), resulting in an extra 62 RBI (228 to 166). The base running you noted plays into it as well. FanGraphs has the Giants at -4.8 BsR (worst in MLB) and while the Brewers haven't been running quite as hair on fire as recent years they are still on the right side of the ledger at +1.1 BsR (12th). Base Runs is a tool that estimates how many runs team would score with neutral sequencing. Based on the sum total of their offensive outcomes Base Runs thinks the Giants should have scored 4.27 R/G and the Brewers should have scored 4.51 R/G so far. Not too far off. But the Brewers have been so good (& the Giants so bad) with RISP that their actual runs per game end up at 4.98 (+0.47 R/G) for the Brewers and 3.90 (-0.37 R/G) for the Giants.

Seven games likely spanning over twelve hours of minor league action from the first pitches on the Island to the final out on the Complex, and all available via a single link to boot? Summer has officially begun.

Third year RHP Lukas Gonzalez of DSL Blue opens the season with that most elusive of Island Sightings -- 2.1 clean IP of 0 R | 0 H | 0 BB | 1 K work. The aforementioned 16yo Leanders Matos added a double to his HR for a five RBI day as the Azules prevailed 11 to 5 despite five errors afield. DSL Gold lost 5 to 2 in a much more subdued affair with second year 1B Jefer Lista doubling and walking thrice while LF Manny De Los Santos debuted with a double, two walks, and two stolen bags (plus a caught stealing).

OKC has kind of always been the dream fit if they could manage to thread that needle. One of Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren as the main salary match, plus whichever combo of Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber, and Ajay Mitchell as young prospects to round out the financials, then they've got #12 and #17 in this year's draft plus a stockpile of other future firsts they could offer.

Obviously it's a small sample for Jake, but going back to September 5th of last year he is at 247 PA of 149 wRC+ for 1.4 WAR, though StatCast thinks there is some good fortune in there with a .362 expected wOBA versus a .385 actual wOBA. He'll be entering FA going into his age 31 season. Best comp for a first basemen/corner outfielder who signed last offseason would probably be Ryan O'Hearn. Was a year older, but had a longer track record of success with 1,406 PA of 121 wRC+ for 6.1 WAR from 2023 to 2025, and signed for 2/$26M.

2022-25 Mitchell had 443 PA of 10.2 BB% | 33.9 K% | .376 BABIP | .179 ISO shaking out to a 114 wRC+. So far this year he is at 178 PA of 14.6 BB% | 37.1 K% | .388 BABIP | .135 ISO shaking out to a 107 wRC+. Garrett already had the Extreme knob cranked to eleven and now he's kicked on the distortion pedal. Still think if he can stay healthy long enough to stack PAs and make some adjustments there is something like 2023 to current Brandon Marsh in there who has 1,576 PA of 10.0 BB% | 28.8 K% | .372 BABIP | .169 ISO shaking out to a 117 wRC+. Most concerning for Garrett though might be the backslide of his soft skills with +4.8 BsR | +5.2 DEF on FanGraphs from 2022 to 2025 but -0.3 BsR | -1.2 DEF in the early going this year.

Entering play today for 2026 as a whole they were at... 4.84 R/G (6th) | 98 wRC+ (15th) | +0.6 BsR (14th) w/RISP 620 PA (4th) | 214 RBI (3rd) | 133 wRC+ (1st) It's basically the same formula they've been running out since Murphy's arrival with a runs per game rank that outpaces their overall batting line because they hit a lot and hit well with runners in scoring position. The big differences over these first two months are that they haven't been nearly as good on the bases and the dregs in the bottom three four lineup spots have dragged their overall batting line down from what they managed in 2024 (105 wRC+) and 2025 (107 wRC+). I'd imagine with personnel changes eventually coming for those black hole spots, plus guys like Chourio, Yelich & Vaughn continuing to get a higher percentage of the team PAs, that they'll end up closer to that combined 106 wRC+ mark from the last two years than the 98 wRC+ over these first two months.

Rob Z is an interesting man of extremes for sure. Over his 29.2 IP with the Brewers going back to 2024 now he has a shiny 51 ERA- largely on account of limiting hits (72 BABIP+) via an astronomical fly ball rate (129 FB+) that has also helped him strand runners (121 LOB+) at a well above average clip. His peripherals are pretty vanilla (99 FIP-) featuring more walks than you'd like (109 BB+) especially considering the lack of strikeouts (93 K+) though his HR suppression (79 HR+) has been good in a small sample, but that 117 xFIP- thinks he's gotten pretty lucky with some of those fly balls staying in the yard. While the various FIPs aren't big believers, his 2.91 xERA via StatCast slots in between guys like Misio (2.75), Ashby (2.93), Megill (3.03), and Harrison (3.04). The average leverage index when he came into a game was 1.13 just ahead of Hoby Milner (1.11) and a little farther behind Joel Payamps (1.24) on that same leaderboard so he's been used in more medium leverage situations than a mop up role like Woodford (his 0.29 gmLI ranks 272nd of 276 relievers with at least 10 IP so far this year).

The Brewers hitters have been getting better and better since Murphy took over... 2017-23 4,693 R (17th) | 100 wRC+ (16th) | +17.4 BsR (9th) w/RISP 9,611 PA (17th) | 3,034 RBI (19th) | 106 wRC+ (11th) 2024-yesterday 1,849 R (4th) | 105 wRC+ (10th) | +35.2 BsR (1st) w/RISP 4,047 PA (1st) | 1,348 RBI (2nd) | 120 wRC+ (3rd) since May 18th 2025 5.14 R/G (1st) | 110 wRC+ (3rd) | +7.8 BsR (3rd) w/RISP 1,878 PA (1st) | 652 RBI (1st) | 124 wRC+ (1st)

Yeah, now looking like Giannis & SGA teaming up might be the only way to stop Wemby.

Before today the NL was +34 wins on the AL for the season. Looks like a big driver of the difference has been bullpen performance... National League Relievers 93 ERA- | 96 FIP- | +23.19 WPA 186 W - 136 L | +341 Shutdowns American League Relievers 103 ERA- | 102 FIP- | -3.34 WPA 169 W - 172 L | +193 Shutdowns

Frelick (87 PA of 47 wRC+), Rengifo (75 PA of 47 wRC+), Mitchell (75 PA of 38.7 K%), Ortiz (60 PA of 64 wRC+), Hamilton (59 PA of 53 wRC+), Sanchez (37 PA of 50 wRC+), and Perkins (23 PA of -67 wRC+) took 44% of the team's plate appearances combining for -22.6 batting runs during the month...and they went 19 W - 7 L with a +36 run differential anyway. Guess that kind of thing will happen when the pitching staff goes for an MLB best (2nd in parentheses)... 2.62 ERA (PHI 2.96) 2.95 xERA (NYY 3.17) 2.76 FIP (PHI 3.15) 27.7 K% (PHI 26.0) 0.48 HR9 (NYM 0.74) .197 AVG (LAD .205) 5.0 Barrel% (t-NYY 5.0) 33.9 HardHit% (TBR 34.9) 102.8 EV90 (LAA 103.4) 108 Stuff+ (t-PHI 108) 6.9 rWAR (t-PHI 6.9) 6.1 fWAR (PHI 5.3) *all stats besides W/L record and run differential from before today's game*