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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Right, but there’s a gaping schism twixt “thin” or “full of question marks” and “worst rotations in recent history”. Corbin Burnes. chipped in 3.4 fWAR to a rotation that was 13th in MLB last year at 11.2 fWAR. The worst rotations in recent memory would be teams like 2022 WAS (-1.4 fWAR), 2023 OAK (1.1 fWAR), or 2021 CHC (2.1 fWAR). FanGraphs currently projects the Brewers rotation for 11.1 WAR in 2024. It would take an Rube Goldberg Machine of unfortunate events for the Brewers to end up with one of the worst rotations in recent history.
  2. sveumrules
    Vegas might not be the best prognosticator for the Brewers. 17 O/U: 70.5 17 wins: 86 (+15.5) 18 O/U: 83.5 18 wins: 95 (+11.5) 19 O/U: 86.5 19 wins: 89 (+2.5) 21 O/U: 83.5 21 wins: 95 (+11.5) 22 O/U: 90.5 22 wins: 86 (-3.5) 23 O/U: 85.5 23 wins: 92 (+6.5) Five out of the six last seasons they’ve been low on the Brewers, three of those by over ten wins. In aggregate they’ve undersold the Brewers by a total of 43 wins over the six full seasons of their recent competitive window.
  3. sveumrules
    Baseball America just gave the Brewers farm system their highest preseason ranking since 2004. This batch of prospects is right up there with the first wave of the Mark A era that kicked off our run of success from 2007-11 and the second wave that we’ve rode for the last seven years. The difference is all those highly ranked prospects are joining an already successful org, not one starting over from the dregs like they were with the previous two waves.
  4. sveumrules
    The 2018 team that went to G7 of the NLCS had a rotation of Jhoulys Chacin (35 GS), Chase Anderson (30 GS), Junior Guerra (26 GS), Brent Suter (18 GS), Wade Miley (17 GS), Freddy Peralta (14 GS) and Zach Davies (13 GS), with help down the stretch from Gio Gonzalez (5 GS) and Woody (4 GS). That rotation ranked 20th in MLB by fWAR and 15th by rWAR with the help of the 2nd ranked defense by DRS. SP is a question mark, no doubt, but the Brewers return a bullpen that paced MLB in Win Probability Added last year, a fielding unit that was again 2nd in Defensive Runs Saved, and an offense that should improve upon its 92 wRC+ from last year.
  5. sveumrules
    They’ve run franchise record payrolls in three of the last four full seasons - 2019, 2022 and 2023 with a global pandemic in the middle. Their OD payroll ranks have come in between 17th and 20th for the last five years in the 30th ranked market. Where do you believe they would need to rank to show an appropriate level of investment? They also have invested heavily in DR/VEN building a new academy and infrastructure from the ground up that has already started paying off with a guy like Uribe, Chourio up next (who got a pretty good investment from Mark A), then Quero, and Lara, etc. In 2018, 2022 and 2033 they won the division at 96, 95 and 92 wins. Their only Wild Card year they came in at 89 and would have knocked out the eventual WS champs if Hader got his outs. The team has always said they’re playing to win the division and have been pretty good at it. They won 86 in their down year.
  6. sveumrules
    Hader for Ruiz/Gasser/Rogers/Limet was panned pretty heavily. Many questioned giving up talented arms like Olson/Kelly for Norris/Bush at the very same deadline.
  7. sveumrules
    The odds of Hall and Ortiz (projected around 3 combined wins) outproducing Burnes (projected around 4.5 wins) are pretty low, though not absolute zero either. Crazier things have happened. If someone got out of a DeLorean before last season and said the only two things they knew about the 2023 Brewers were that the offense was going to crater from a 103 wRC+ (11th) the year before down to a 92 wRC+ (24th), and that Woodruff would get hurt and only throw 67 IP, I don’t think many would have predicted the Brewers adding six dubs onto their 2022 total and winning what was forecast as a tight division with relative ease. No matter how 2024 shakes out, this trade was made primarily for 2025 and beyond where Hall and Ortiz will hopefully be stacking wins compared to the absolute zero we’d surely be getting from Corbin at that point.
  8. sveumrules
    It’s kind of a short track record at only one season, but here’s how Arnold fared in his first year… The Good (13 players at +19.8 WAR) Contreras (5.4 WAR), Miley (3.4 rWAR), Payamps (1.8 rWAR), Wilson (1.4 rWAR), Rea (1.3 rWAR), Perkins (1.2 WAR), Peguero (1.0 rWAR), Canha (1.0 WAR), Miller (0.9 WAR), Teheran (0.8 rWAR), Santana (0.7 WAR), Anderson (0.5 WAR), Megill (0.4 rWAR) The Bad (6 players at -2.7 WAR) Winker (-0.8 WAR), Voit (-0.4 WAR), Singleton (-0.4 WAR), Chafin (-0.4 rWAR), Varland (-0.4 rWAR), Tapia (-0.3 WAR) Looks line Arnold came out about 17 wins ahead on his transactions last year.
  9. sveumrules
    This plan is essentially the same one the Brewers have been running since 2017, a seven season stretch during which they’ve won the 6th most games in MLB. Given the front office’s track record of knowing what they’re doing more often than not, combined with the highly ranked farm system they’ve assembled without the benefit of high draft picks, I feel pretty good about their odds of avoiding long term mediocrity or worse. The first wave way back in the day was all hitters and Yo, the second wave was all pitchers and Orlando. This next wave looks to have the best mix of both. The writing has been on the wall for the the end of this era since trade deadline 2022, bring on the new. I’m excited to see how exactly the wave crests or crashes.
  10. sveumrules
    ChatGPT needs help, Brewers went 7-12 in the postseason during the Burnes/Woody plus Freddy years. Sure, they’re only 1-9 over their last ten postseason games going back to Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS, but whatcha gonna do, even the mighty Dodgers are only 2-8 in their last ten postseason games. Same record as the small market ideal Rays over their last ten. For all their money the Yankees are 3-7, with all their devil magic the Cardinals are 1-9, (and neither even made it at all last year), heck, the best in baseball Braves are 2-6 since winning the 2021 WS.
  11. sveumrules
    ZiPS is currently showing Ortiz (1.8 WAR), Hall (1.1 WAR) and Burnes (4.4 WAR) on their FG player pages. Isn’t that more like 1.5 wins?
  12. sveumrules
    He was playing his age 24 season in 2023. He will be playing his age 25 season in 2024. Like purt near every player drafted before 2020, his development was delayed a full year by a global pandemic.
  13. sveumrules
    The Brewers are never well thought of. But they’ve made a regular habit of beating those prognostications over the last seven, eight years.
  14. sveumrules
    Because the Brewers FO thinks the sum total of all moves made so far (and maybe even some yet to be made) will allow them to remain competitive in 2024 while also increasing their chances of competing in 2025 and beyond.
  15. sveumrules
    Trade for Cease at $8M.
  16. sveumrules
    Getting Wilson, Rea and Perkins for free was another four wins for nothing.
  17. sveumrules
    Burnes last three years… 35.6 to 30.5 to 25.5 on K%. 5.2 to 6.4 to 8.4 on BB%. 0.38 to 1.02 to 1.02 on HR9. 1.63 to 3.14 to 3.81 on FIP. 2.43 to 2.94 to 3.39 on ERA. 6.3 to 5.3 to 4.8 on rWAR. 7.5 to 4.6 to 3:4 on fWAR. Corbin has regressed pretty hard two years in a row across the board with only one year of control remaining. That’s why Mayo has a higher surplus value on BTV and was always a pipedream.
  18. sveumrules
    Mitchell has pretty divergent splits so far in his limited professional career... MiLB (592 PA) 13.2 BB% | 25.5 K% | 60.7 GB% MLB (141 PA) 9.2 BB% | 38.3 K% | 38.9 GB% In the minors he has had a reasonable plate discipline profile and hit everything on the ground, in the majors his Ks have exploded and he's hit everything in the air. The main problem though (besides the ridiculously unsustainable .441 BABIP in the majors) is only 733 total PA over three full seasons.
  19. sveumrules
    To lock Contreras up now have to imagine you gotta top Murphy at 6/73 minimum. I don't think William early extending was ever a realistic option though because beating his brother at 5/87.5 is probably the ultimate goal, that’s bragging rights for life.
  20. sveumrules
    Not saying BTV is infallible by any means, but they’ve got this package like $11M short on Milwaukee’s end. By their calcs subbing Payamps for Wilson adds just shy of $10M in value, or a Frelick for Woo one for one would be essentially a wash. Seattle has JRod locking down CF, so they probably aren’t the ideal trade partner for our surplus there. Scanning CF depth charts I think the best fits are COL, SDP, CLE, KCR or TBR.
  21. sveumrules
    It’s not crazy, but it’s probably not consensus either. Depending how one weights ceiling/floor & likelihood of reaching that ceiling, you can really put Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer in any order. Frelick has the least power of the three, but his approach and contact ability give him the highest floor and best chance to realize his ceiling. Wiemer has the most power of the three, but needs to fix his swing to get there. Michell has the best total package, but is injured all the time and has a couple big red flags in his limited MLB performance so far with a career 38.3 K% and .441 BABIP.
  22. sveumrules
    New year, new MLB misc news thread. New Orioles owners finally? Looks like Angelos family is cashing out the tune of 1.725 Billion Dollars. Sale needs to be approved at the upcoming owners meetings, and sounds like it might be more of a gradual transfer for tax purposes, but maybe now they’ll start locking up and adding to their young core.
  23. sveumrules
    I’d guess Anderson is holding out for a 40 Man Spot, but is only getting Arroyo offers right now, aka come to camp and earn it. He is pretty much the poster boy for the perils of BABIP dependency though. When he was going good from 2019-21 (among 159 players with at least 1,000 PAs) he came in at .322 AVG (1st) | 126 wRC+ (37th) | 11.5 WAR (15th) He never walked (3.6 BB% | 157th) and hit for below average power (.173 ISO | 110th) but rode an insane .394 BABIP (1st) to the very top of the batting average column and Top 15 WAR. To give some context as to how out there his BABIP was, the next best over that same stretch was Yoan Moncada all the way down at .368. The highest over the two years prior was Judge/Altuve at .362. The highest over the last two years is Freeman at .364. Speaking of last two years (among 177 players with at least 800 PAs), Anderson still doesn’t walk (4.6 BB% | 172nd), and his power completely disappeared (.068 ISO | 176th). His heavily regressed .333 BABIP is still good at 22nd, but not good enough as his 80 wRC+ (168th) and 1.5 WAR (149th) are both precipitous drops. Feels like a National or Angel to me. Rockies as a dark horse because if he can’t regain form at Coors that’s prettty much a wrap.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, all the plus stats adjust for ballpark and leaguewide offense. Like Moose had a raw ISO of .221 from 2015-18 with KC which shook out to a 133 ISO+ once all the adjustments were made. He followed that up with a raw ISO of .241 from 2018-19 with MIL, but that also shook out to a 133 ISO+ since Miller Park is easier to slug in than Kaufmann and offense was up in 2019 (.187 leaguewide ISO) compared to 2015-18 (.153 to .175 leaguewide ISO).
  25. sveumrules
    In the three years before the Brewers acquired Moose he went for 1742 PA | 115 wRC+ | 7.9 WAR compared to 1824 PA | 110 wRC+ | 11.7 WAR for Chapman. In addition to defense (+24 DRS | +21 OAA for Chapman vs -11 DRS | -4 OAA for Moose), Matt also had a notable edge on the bases at +7.4 BsR over the last three years compared to -14.4 BsR for Mike over the three years before we acquired him. They also get to their offense in pretty different ways... Moose walked below average (82 BB%+), struck out less than average (68 K%+), got hits above average (105 AVG+) and slugged big time (133 ISO+). Chapman has a whole different approach with a ton of walks (139 BB%+), strike outs (129 K%+), not as many hits (92 AVG+) and a good amount of power (121 ISO+). Moose was a big time fly ball hitter (121 FB%+) with more of an all fields approach at 102 Pull+ | 95 Cent+ | 104 Oppo+ whereas Chapman sells out even more for flyballs (133 FB%+) to the pull side and up the middle at 105 Pull+ | 105 Cent+ | 85 Oppo+
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