sveumrules

First 3-0 start since 2018 (that was a pretty fun year)

Matt Arnold + $110M >>> David Stearns + $324M

Agree that Hall is going to be a work in progress throughout the season, my only real hope is that he stays healthy enough for say 25 GS | 115 IP and I’d take whatever results come along with it. Think the concern over his fastball velocity might be a lil overblown given the early season weather and starter vs reliever effort levels. Was also reminded of this blurb from Matthew Trueblood’s ST coverage breaking down how Hall’s heater doesn’t necessarily require elite velocity to be an effective pitch… I don't like to default to Stuff+ or PitchingBot, a pair of models designed to boil down the quality of a given offering to a single number using data about release point and movement. I think pitching is much more nuanced and interesting than that. I do find it fascinating, though, that those two models disagree sharply about Hall's fastball. Somewhat famously, multiple outlets who put scouting (non-quantitative) grades on players gave Hall an 80 (the very top of the scale) to the lefty's heater. PitchingBot, which is on the scouting scale (20-80), comes fairly close to affirming that, at 68. It ranked Hall's as the 20th-best fastball in baseball last year, of 727 qualifying pitchers. Stuff+, though, is much less impressed. That number is scaled to 100, where that figure is average and higher is better. Hall comes in at just 101, above average but far below any standard for excellence. He ranks 232nd in fastball Stuff+. I bring this up because, when you watch Hall, it's not hard to see what the scouts saw when they slapped that high grade on him. The fastball explodes on the hitter. It's just not easy to put a finger on why that is. I looked up Hall's percentile ranks in many categories, among lefties who threw at least 200 four-seamers, for 2023. As it turns out, while he doesn't excel in terms of sheer movement or sheer velocity, he's extraordinary in many other regards. We're certainly used to elite fastballs grades being given to fastballs with elite velocity, and failing that, we at least expect something weird to be going on in terms of horizontal or vertical movement. Hall is more subtle than that. It's a weird horizontal angle, but also a low release point, which gives him an extreme vertical approach angle, too. His very good extension lets the raw velocity play up, and he changes speeds on the heat much more than most pitchers do. That's an especially intriguing tidbit, for such a young pitcher. In the context of a short Cactus League outing, it's impossible to distinguish adding and subtracting on the fastball from tiring in a second inning of work, but I thought he seemed to be doing the former, not the latter, on Sunday. Changing speeds and giving hitters such a tricky look makes up for a lot of other things, and with Hall's good (though not dominant) power, it becomes a deadly cocktail in a hurry. In a short outing Sunday, he showed everything from 93.7 MPH to 96.9 on the fastball, with accompanying changes in spin rate. That touch might be what sets the pitch apart.

What injuries did Quero have before his freak one to start this season? Going through his game log it looks like he missed one week two times in 2022 and had absences of one and three weeks last year, that seems about par for the course for a catcher. If you think 95 games played by a teenage catcher in his first full pro season stateside is a sign of fragility you might need to recalibrate your expectations, or dig a little deeper for context.

Bucks hold on for the first win of the season sans-Lillard after losing the first five games he didn’t play this season. Another mark in the “as Dame goes, the Bucks go” column along with… 28-6 when scoring 25+ 26-4 when shooting 45%+ 21-5 when making 4+ threes 21-5 with 8+ assists 16-4 with 1 or zero turnovers team best +12.7 on/off Maybe moreso than any other league the NBA is a story driven league. If somehow Giannis manages to lead the Bucks over the Celtics (who have been the most dominant RS team since peak Golden State) in the ECF, then tops Jokic & Nuggets in the Finals, all while securing Dame his first ring and Doc his second with a decade and a half in between…well, that would definitely be some kind of story.

Whoops, good catch. Paints his appearance in a different light for sure. Downgraded from “dominant” to “effectively wild” in the mental filing cabinet.

Sounds fall 4-2 for the second day in a row. Tyler Black (2-5, 3B), Vinny Capra (1-4, BB), Owen Miller (1-4, 2B, BB), and Patrick Dorrian (2-4, 2B) all reached twice while Wiemer chipped in an RBI double. Harold Chirino (1.1 IP | 1 H | 3 BB) and Enoli Paredes (1 IP | 1 K) had scoreless outings.

But did they all smack LHP in the minors? Mitchell 2021 817 OPS vs RHP (205 PA) 732 OPS vs LHP (63 PA) Mitchell 2022 847 OPS vs RHP (256 PA) 768 OPS vs LHP (87 PA) [Mitchell smacked RHP, LHP less so) Turang 2021 711 OPS vs RHP (368 PA) 705 OPS vs LHP (128 PA) Turang 2022 767 OPS vs RHP (399 PA) 781 OPS vs LHP (204 PA) [not much R/L split in the minors, though debatable that he really smacked anyone. 610/465 OPS split in MLB] Frelick 2021 840 OPS vs RHP (119 PA) 1054 OPS vs LHP (33 PA) Frelick 2022 890 OPS vs RHP (396 PA) 865 OPS vs LHP (166 PA) [best combination of smacking and minimal splits, but followed it up with a 722/569 OPS split at the MLB level in 2023] I don’t have a problem platooning any of these guys until they demonstrate they can stay healthy (Mitchell) or hit RHP at the MLB level (Frelick/Turang).

Last time Giannis played as many as his current 2,394 regular season minutes was 2016-17, his age 23 season. Last time Lillard played as many as his current 2,402 regular season minutes was 2019-20, his age 29 season and I believe he got a four months off in the middle of that season. Brook is still a couple hundred minutes short of last year’s total, but by the time the season is over he’ll likely end up with his most minutes since 2015-16, his age 27 season. Good news if everyone can make it to the playoffs healthy is even with all the struggles BBREF has the Dame Beas Midds Giannis Brook lineup at +15.4 pts/100 over 593 minutes on the floor together which stacks up pretty well with the most played lineups for the two title favorites… BOS: White Holiday Brown Tatum Kristaps (+12.9 pts/100 | 580 mins) DEN: Murray KCP MPJ Gordon Jokic (+14.0 pts/100 | 883 mins)

Bauers with some big ball and Turang with some small ball.

It wasn’t just the back half of the bullpen, and it wasn’t just last year, the Brewers pitching staff as a whole has beat their FIP every full season since Stearns and company got here… 2016: 4.10 ERA | 4.37 FIP 2017: 4.00 ERA | 4.24 FIP 2018: 3.73 ERA | 4.01 FIP 2019: 4.40 ERA | 4.46 FIP 2021: 3.50 ERA | 3.72 FIP 2022: 3.83 ERA | 3.92 FIP 2023: 3.73 ERA | 4.21 FIP

Myers was primarily a starter in AA last year, so my guess would be him.

Looks like they have it up at the Brewers official MLB roster page.

I don't see it as a midpoint of reasonable expectations either, was just outlining a way that the team could end up around that range. If the starting pitching matches the worst rWAR of the Stearns/Arnold era (7.1 in 2016) and the bullpen notches their worst year since Hader blew up in 2022 (+1.68 WPA), and the offense doesn't make any improvements then it's more like 90 pythag wins, minus 9 wins from SP, minus 10 wins from RP and offense stays the same for something like 71 wins.

Over the seven full seasons that FanGraphs historical preseason projections are available the Brewers have come in an MLB best +58 Wins, an average of about eight extra wins per season. So 86 wins with an 80 win FanGraph projection is well within the realm of possibility.

FanGraphs projects the Brewers rotation for 11.9 WAR this year. Last year they posted 11.2 FIP based WAR which only takes into account their K, BB, HR and IFFB numbers. Once the defense (+68 DRS, 2nd in MLB) entered the equation, they came out at 15.8 runs allowed based WAR. By that math, the rotation projects around four wins or so worse than last year. And that is with a projected 4.39 FIP/4.22 ERA (-0.17) for the group. Last year that FIP/ERA gap for the starters was over twice as large at 4.34 FIP/3.94 ERA (-0.40). If the defense works their magic again that would mitigate things even more. If the offense improves to mediocre and puts up an even 100 wRC+ that would be an improvement of 61.4 batting runs, or about six wins, from what they contributed last year with a 92 wRC+. The bullpen is unlikely to repeat their historic performance (+11.73 WPA), but if they are able to come in around 2018 (+5.65 WPA), 2019 (+5.22 WPA) or 2021 (+5.90 WPA) levels that would shave say another six wins off of last year. So essentially the math is something like 90 pythag wins in 2023, minus 4 wins from SP, minus 6 wins from RP and plus 6 wins from offense comes in around 86 wins in 2024.

Here are the Brewers 13th/14th ranked player by PAs for each month of the season last year... Apr: Caratini (36) Perkins (14) May: Voit (20) Brosseau (19) Jun: Winker (32) Tapia (25) Jul: Anderson (29) Taylor (18) Aug: Anderson (21) Perkins (5) Sep: Perkins (31) Wiemer (22) Would imagine he doesn't get more than one start and a couple two tree pinch hit/runs per week.

Here are all thirty teams grouped by their lowest single season win total over the last six full seasons... LAD (92) HOU (90) MIL (86) NYY (82) TBR (80) BOS (78) CLE (76) MIN (73) ATL (72) LAA (72) STL (71) CHC (71) NYM (70) SEA (68) TOR (67) PHI (66) SDP (66) SFG (64) CIN (62) CHW (61) PIT (61) TEX (60) COL (59) MIA (57) KCR (56) WAS (55) ARI (52) OAK (50) DET (47) BAL (47) Whatever happens in 2024, the run of consistent success the Brewers have been on is pretty impressive. Six straight full seasons of at least 86 wins doesn't come around often. I'll be pulling for a seventh straight.

MiLB career numbers… Hiura (1,608 PA) 8.8 BB% | 23.6 K% Adames (2,681 PA) 12.5 BB% | 22.9 K% Urias (2,571 PA) 10.8 BB% | 13.5 K% Brinson (3,194 PA) 8.2 BB% | 26.2 K% Black (955 PA) 16.6 BB% | 18.3 K% Black has a way more patient approach at the plate than all those guys and has made more contact than all but Urias throughout their respective minor league careers. Their batting mechanics might share some similarities but it’s a whole different plate approach.

No doubt TT has more pop, but Perkins walks more with a 13.7 BB% last year compared to a 3.3 BB% for Taylor. That's how Blake ended up with a .326 OBP compared to only a .267 OBP for Tyrone.

His name is Blake Perkins. Last year, he posted 1.2 WAR in 168 PAs. Tyrone Taylor came in at 0.8 WAR in 243 PAs,

Who is the 4th OF if Perkins is sent down?

Ortiz has a 327/383/521 (128 wRC+) batting line over 504 PA in AAA, I don’t think he has anything left to prove there. Only way to find out if he can hit MLB pitching is to give him consistent PAs at the big league level.

Order since the last Freddy start has been… Fri 3/22: Peralta Sat 3/23: Miley 2 IP (Ross 5 IP) Sun 3/24: Hall Mon 3/25: Rea Tue 3/26: Ashby (listed as the probable on MLB) Obviously Hogg knows more than me, but looks like Rea would be lined up for the HO currently. Also plenty of room to move guys around with the early season off days FRI & MON. Could even throw Freddy on four days rest for the HO if they’re feeling really saucy. Something to keep an eye on too is Junis hasn’t pitched since 3/16 with his outing skipped last Friday on account of a sore shoulder. Could be an IL candidate to open the season if he doesn’t get in the last ST game tomorrow.

Played 68 games in the minors plus 28 games in MLB for a total of 96 games in 2022. But yeah, only 187 games in three full seasons since being drafted is a lot of lost development time.