sveumrules

For as bad as Adames swing decisions can be, Baez is really on a planet of his own. Willy has a 114 BB%+ and 117 K%+ during his 1668 PA with the Brewers with a 98 BABIP+. His overall Swing% is 49.3% with 24.6% of those pitches being out of zone. Peak Baez (2018-21) posted a 51 BB%+ and 133 K%+ over 1988 PA with a 113 BABIP+. He had an overall Swing% of 56.2% with 42.0% of those pitches being out of zone. Willy has a much more stable profile in terms of walking waaay more and not being BABIP reliant, and that’s before getting to him swinging and striking out way less too. As for future production, Steamer projects him for a 103 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR next year, if he did that he’d come in around 102 wRC+ and 11.2 WAR over his three seasons before hitting FA heading into age 29. The best recent FA comp for that would probably be the pending Matt Chapman contract. He’s at 110 wRC+ and 11.7 WAR over his last three years heading into his age 31 season. Both are field over hit players, with Adames having the advantage of being younger and farther up the defensive spectrum. A lot will hinge on this year. Hit all season like he did in 2021? He’ll probably get something like Dansby money ($177M). Struggle at the plate again and put up another 94 wRC+ (or worse) and he might struggle to crack $100M.

Yelich posted a 122 wRC+ and 4.1 WAR playing LF/DH last year.

When Cooper was dealt back in 2017 we had Thames and Aguilar at 1B. From 2017-19 Brewers 1B combined for a 123 wRC+ and 9.4 WAR (7th in MLB among 1B). Ah, the good old days. From 2020-23, Cooper posted 2.4 WAR compared to 0.8 WAR for Brewers 1B. Sure, he would have been a no doubt upgrade to the abysmal production we’ve gotten from 1B in the 2020’s, but an extra 1.6 wins spread out over 546 games is about as marginal as it gets.

All Your Rodriguez Are Belong To Us

A little over one third of the way through the season and the Bucks currently sit at 22-7, putting them second in the East and third overall behind BOS and MIN who are both 22-6. Their season kind of breaks down nicely into three sections so far - rocky start (5-4), figuring it out (10-3) and then the current seven game win streak (7-0) - so thought I'd post some splits from each... MILWAUKEE BUCKS 5-4: 115.7 PPG | 119.3 OPPG (-3.6 DIF) 39.6 RPG 10-3: 126.6 PPG | 118.3 OPPG (+8.3 DIF) 46.4 RPG 7-0: 132.4 PPG | 118.9 OPPG (+13.5 DIF) 48.1 RPG (Offense is a juggernaut, defense has improved a little but still work to do, rebounding back where it should be) GIANNIS 5-4: 28.9 PPG | 9.4 RPG | 3.8 APG | .581 FG% | .649 FT% 10-3: 31.8 PPG | 11.5 RPG | 6.0 APG | .638 FG% | .664 FT% 7-0: 31.4 PPG | 11.7 RPG | 6.7 APG | .571 FG% | .701 FT% (Offseason knee scope and spacing provided by Dame has revitalized Giannis who's currently posting the highest raw TS% of his career, though only the 4th highest TS%+ once we account for the insane leaguewide scoring environment this season. Encouraging signs at the free throw line too) DAMIAN 5-4: 24.3 PPG | 4.4 RPG | 4.7 APG | .400 FG% | .293 3P% 10-3: 26.2 PPG | 4.7 RPG | 8.2 APG | .446 FG% | .391 3P% 7-0: 27.1 PPG | 4.9 RPG | 7.1 APG | .441 FG% | .439 3P% (Shooting percentages back to expected levels after the slow start, also getting to the line at an insane clip with a .479 free throw rate versus a career average of .346 entering the season) KHRIS 5-4: 11.1 PPG | 3.1 RPG | 4.0 APG | .486 FG% | 18.9 MPG 10-3: 13.2 PPG | 5.1 RPG | 4.1 APG | .463 FG% | 23.3 MPG 7-0: 16.3 PPG | 6.2 RPG | 4.5 APG | .494 FG% | 30.2 MPG (Not a surprise that the team has played better as Midds has played more. His +9.7 On/Off is currently tops on the team and his old man mid range game gives the Bucks an elite option at all three scoring levels) ERRBODY ELSE Beasley has been killing it with the starters posting the best shooting splits of his life (.457 3P% vs .378 career and .646 TS% vs .554 career) to go along with his best On/Off as a regular (+9.0 vs -2.2 career). Brook is leading the league in blocks with three per game, and still providing value on defense with opponents posting a 113.7 ORtg with him on the floor versus a 119.9 when he is off. Bobby has been averaging essentially 13 PPG | 7 RPG on near career best efficiency (.590 TS%) while bringing his typical energy, toughness, hustle and scary eyes. Rest of the roster gets murkier. Pat has brought the intangibles, but not the three ball (.325 3P%). AJJ and Marjon have had some flashes and shown some promise as our only real athletic wings, just need to get more consistent minutes. Cameron Payne has been the worst regular with a -6.5 On/Off in his 16.3 MPG. Rest of the season priorities would seem to be stay healthy and continue to figure out the defense. Hard to be Top 5 on that end with Dame, Beas and Midds as the primary perimeter defenders, but all they need to do is shave off a bucket per 100 possessions to get into Top 10 level, which should be plenty with this offense. If Horst can somehow pull off a defensive minded PG or wing (or both) at the deadline that would go a long ways too.

The economics of the National Pastime being good old fashioned Free Market Capitalism is a fait accompli, especially when neither the players nor the owners seem like they’re all that interested in changing things. Maybe the already started only gonna get worse RSN situation will spur MLB towards a more Socialist model like the NFL or NBA use to level the playing field (as long as you have an HOF QB or Generational Superstar). Until then, I’ve accepted the economic reality of the Brewers as a feature, not a bug. It enhances my enjoyment of things. Eighteen teams spent more on payroll than the Brewers last year, two of them won more games. ”Yeah, but the Brewers are 1-9 in their last 10 playoff games.” So what? The Dodgers are 2-8. The postseason is largely random, get in enough years, and one of them you’ll eventually be the one who gets hot. I mean, for a market like Milwaukee it’s pretty much the only way. They’ll never be able to come remotely close to being able to outspend their competition by buying wins at the top of the free agent market, so why fetishize it?

Yeah, if Lee and Walker Jenkins are off the table I would hope any Twins package would include at least three of Emmanuel Rodriguez, David Festa, Marco Raya, Connor Prielipp and/or Charlee Soto. Anything less than that and I'd rather just hold Burnes or deal him to a team that matches up better.

Saw on MLBTR that Jesus Aguilar signed with the Seibu Lions of NPB. Kind of interesting that all sorts of non-40 Man calibre guys have been signing minor league deals and foreign contracts so far, but nary a peep about our old friend Keston Hiura. Considering all the consternation around his alleged mis-treatment by the Brewers the last couple summers I thought some enterprising MLB club would have snatched him up to be their full time DH vs RHP by now.

Festa is intriguing, but Polanco is old, expensive, injury prone and bad at defense. 3/30 for a 30 year old 2B projected at maybe 5 or 6 WAR over the next 3 years just doesn't really interest me at all in return for Burnes. Prielipp sounds like a reliever and has 6.2 professional innings heading into his age 23 season. If this is the best offer the Brewers have I would hope they just hold Corbin.

That's because for most pitchers, FIP is stickier year over year than ERA. Miley is the biggest outlier in baseball though with regards to beating his FIP. Since 2018, among 91 starting pitchers with at least 500 IP, his 3.45 ERA is 0.79 runs better than his 4.25 FIP. The next biggest gap in the sample is Kershaw at 2.77 ERA vs 3.36 FIP for a 0.59 run difference. If you narrow it down to Miley's 201 IP with the Brewers he is at a 2.91 ERA vs 4.25 FIP for an even more massive 1.34 run difference.

Welcome to the board!

Lose a whole year of service time taking him in the Rule 5 while he's on the 60 Day IL recovering from TJ. Also clogs up a 40 Man spot in the offseason when he can't be on the IL. With the way the Brewers value 40 Man flexibility and years of team control I'm not surprised they viewed trading for him as a better option than selecting him in the Rule 5.

Crow plus about $6.5M to potentially spend elsewhere.

Because getting something back is better than getting nothing back?

What do posters upset with the trade believe would have been a more appropriate return for one year of an inconsistent back of the rotation SP and a 4th OF coming off a career worst year? It may be a salary dump, it may not. All depends on how the rest of the offseason plays out. If they keep Burnes and Adames and reinvest the money, it will pretty clearly not be solely about saving money. If they end up dealing Burnes and/or Adames, payroll was always going to go down in that scenario.

Yo, Adrian! You better call Tyrone. Adios, to the two longest tenured Brewers. Thanks for everything, fellas.

Eric Brown Junior.

Really thoughtful interview with Jed Bradley leads off this week’s Sunday Notes column over at FanGraphs.

They literally just signed a player for eight guaranteed seasons, plus two team options. Its the second longest contract of the offseason so far after Ohtani.

It's been reported as both. Initial reporting of $700M for clicks. OMG OHTANI GOT HOW MUCH?!?!?! Subsequent reporting identified the contract as being only worth $460M in present dollars (pretty much right in line with what was expected following his arm injury) due to the massive deferrals. For the purpose of dollar/WAR calculations, the $460M figure seems more relevant to me since that is how much MLB values the contract at.

Uh-oh, this guy better win a couple two tree Rolaids Reliever of the Year awards to justify trading long time BF.netcom favorite Cam Devanney.

Had a couple nice seasons from a peripheral perspective in 2021-22, with his 3.41 FIP ranking 43rd among 126 relievers who threw at least 90 IP over those two seasons. Didn't really strike anybody out (97 K%+, 97th of 126), but was decent at preventing HRs (86 HR9+, 76th of 126) and among the very best at limiting walks (65 BB%+, 13th of 126).

I would guess Wilken spends most of the year in AA, before getting a bump to AAA at some point in the second half. While Chourio got a full season in AA, most of the other recent young Brewers bats like Wiemer (84 G), Black (84 G), Mitchell (79 G), Turang (73 G) and Frelick (52 G) moved through Biloxi more quickly since they were already 21 to 23 instead of 19.

Hey, he’s getting a cool million more than Ohtani this year

MLBTR projected 3/42. FanGraphs came in at 3/39. Not too much of a Royals tax.