sveumrules

You may believe projections suck, but they are certainly not worth nothing. Teams literally pay money to third parties to provide them with external projections. They hire numerous analysts to better calibrate their own internal projections. Does this mean they are unassailable? Of course not. But even for all their shortcomings they have much smaller error bars and inherently less bias than any one human's opinion.

It’s not naysaying Mitchell to point out that his 119 wRC+ over 141 MLB PAs is very likely unsustainable with a 38.3 K% and .441 BABIP under the hood. It’s just math. A .350 BABIP is pretty much the ceiling over any meaningful sample. Among 226 batters with at least 1,000 PA since 2021 only Brandon Marsh (.384), JD Davis (.351) and Freeman (,.351) have cleared that bar. Hit King Luis Arraez is at .340. Objective one is just stay healthy. Of course a guy’s performance will be volatile with only 187 games and 732 PAs spread out across five levels and three years. After that the K rate needs to come down at least a dozen points. If both of those things happen, we should be in business.

Williams workload is fine and perfectly in line with other closers. Here’s the dozen guys with at least 30 saves last years sorted by save opportunities with their corresponding innings pitched… Clase (56 SVO, 72.1 IP) Doval (47 SVO, 67.2 IP) Bednar (42 SVO, 67.1 IP) Diaz (40 SVO, 67.1 IP) Romano (40 SVO, 59 IP) Williams (40 SVO, 58.2 IP) Bautista (39 SVO, 61 IP) Sewald (39 SVO, 60.2 IP) Hader (38 SVO, 58.1 IP) Pressley (37 SVO, 65.1 IP) Iglesias (37 SVO, 55.2 IP) Estevez (35 SVO, 62.1 IP)

Not too far off from what FanGraphs depth charts has… Peralta (163 IP) Miley (133) Junis (125) Rea (113) Gasser (106) Hall (86) Ross (69) Ashby (49) Rodriguez (25) Junk (9) That rotation comes in at 12.0 projected WAR which ties them for 16th in the rankings with (drumroll please) the Baltimore Orioles. FG depth charts also have Ashby (44 IP) Junk (31) Ross (28) Hall (24) Rea (14) Gasser (12) Junis (10) projected for some relief innings. Here is how the Brewers rotations have fared in both FIP based WAR and runs allowed based WAR over their last six full seasons… 2017 12.7 fWAR (9th) 14.2 rWAR (8th) 2018 8.3 fWAR (20th) 11.2 rWAR (15th) 2019 8.5 fWAR (20th) 9.9 rWAR (16th) Cumulative 2017-19 SP: 29.5 fWAR (18th) 35.2 rWAR (13th) RP: +13.75 WPA (7th) Runs Scored: 2,255 (15th) position player wRC+: 103 (15th) position player WAR: 74.3 (9th) DRS: +140 DRS (5th) Base Running: +16.7 (10th) Team Wins: 271 (7th) 2021 20.3 fWAR (2nd) 22.3 rWAR (2nd) 2022 12.4 fWAR (13th) 13.0 rWAR (13th) 2023 11.2 fWAR (12th) 15.8 rWAR (4th) Cumulative 2021-23 SP: 43.9 fWAR (3rd) 51.1 rWAR (3rd) RP: +19.31 WPA (3rd) Runs Scored: 2,191 (13th) position player wRC+: 98 (17th) position player WAR: 62.0 (12th) DRS: +147 DRS (1st) Base Running: +14.7 (9th) Team Wins: 273 (5th) Lots of interesting takeaways comparing the similarities and differences in how the 17-19 iteration got to their 271 wins versus how the 21-23 iteration got to their 273. Constants are that excellent defense has helped the pitchers outperform their peripherals for over half a decade to one degree or another. That same defense combined with above average base running has helped the position players rank 9th and 12th in WAR over those three year stretches while only ranking 13th to 17th in runs scored and position player wRC+. For as fickle as relievers are, Brewers bullpens have pretty consistently been nails. 17-19 offense got a season and a half of MVP Yelich to boost their wRC+ over 100, 21-23 rotation got one full season of dominance from Burnes, Woody, and Freddy all together to anchor their rankings. Winding back around to the 2024 rotation, as a fan of both Eef Barzelay (“I love the unknown”) and Neil Halstead (“give me something new”) I’ll echo the sentiments of Kirsten Dunst and say Bring. It. On.

The comp for Wes Clarke is Garrett Cooper with the ability to emergency catch. Its not a perfect comp since they are different builds and Cooper’s profile is more hit over power with a 107 AVG+ vs a 100 ISO+ since becoming a regular in 2019 whereas Clarke is 3TO slugger profile. But bottom line is Wes will need to be able to walk and power his way to at least a 110 wRC+ (Cooper’s career mark, Branyan is 111 career for a more 3TO look) to have any shot of sticking around MLB in any meaningful capacity.

Charlie Greene and staff were able to coach up Narvaez, Contreras and Caratini on framing… Narvaez 16-19: -22.3 FRM 20-22: +20.2 FRM Contreras 20-22: -6.3 FRM 2023: +14.4 FRM Caratini 17-21: -5.0 FRM 22-23: +10.1 FRM Their CS% didn’t see quite the same level of improvement… Narvaez 16-19: 52/251 = 20.7 CS% 20-22: 47/218 = 21.6 CS% Contreras 20-22: 16/71 = 22.5 CS% 2023: 16/93 = 17.2 CS% Caratini 17-21: 30/142 = 21.1 CS% 22-23: 22/106 = 20.8 CS%

Wes Clarke at AA: 4 CS / 35 SB = 10.3 CS% Gary Sanchez at AA: 68 CS / 110 SB = 38.2 CS% Gary Sanchez in MLB: 98 CS / 257 SB = 27.6 CS% Clarke’s biggest impediment to potentially catching at the MLB level is he hasn’t been able to throw any one out two levels down in AA. The one tool Sanchez has always had in his tool box behind the plate is a strong arm. That’s a pretty notable difference.

Guess the Red Sox weren’t that impressed with their first hand look. Kind of interesting since both Urias deals were for a single pitcher. Mariners sent over Isaiah Campbell, a 26 year old reliever who threw 28 MLB innings last year. His 2.83 ERA was pretty nice, but the peripherals weren’t quite as pretty with a 3.32 FIP, 3.80 SIERA, 3.87 xERA and 4.15 xFIP. He’s projected between a 4.21 and 4.37 ERA by the various publicly available systems for 2024. Obviously a higher floor than Blalock having reached MLB already, but Bradley has the edge in upside being three years younger with better scouting reports and a chance to start still.

I'm seeing $7M guaranteed ($12M if the rarely exercised mutual option is picked up) for Junis, versus $5M for Houser this year, so only a couple million more in the most likely scenario. The dreaded projections on FanGraphs depth charts have Houser down for 128 IP of 4.56 ERA / 4.70 FIP shaking out to 1.0 WAR versus 125 IP of 4.34 ERA / 4.33 FIP for Junis shaking out to 1.7 WAR. I'm guessing the Brewers internal projections spit out something similar and they also feel like there is still meat on the developmental bone for Junis, whereas they've done all they can do with Houser and he is who he is at this point. Plus they get a prospect they liked too.

$350M+ seems like a pretty rich assumption. Trout extended for 10/360 in March 2019. Harper got 13/330 as a free agent in March 2019. Betts extended for 12/365 from the Dodgers in July 2020 after they traded for him with one year before FA. Tatis Jr extended for 14/340 in February 2021, but he was also two years younger than Belli and a SS at the time. Lindor extended for 10/341 from the Mets in March 2021 after they traded for him with one year before FA. Judge needed to hit FA to get 9/360 and that was three years later in 2022. If $350M+ four years out from FA were the parameters after only one MVP calibre season in 2019, I can see why the Dodgers never went for an extension.

Monasterio certainly exceeded expectations by providing anything at all last year, but an 87 wRC+ | 0.4 WAR | +0.06 WPA performance is setting the bar pretty low for incredible.

Con: got crushed last year. His 6.56 ERA was actually kinda shiny compared to his 7.49 xERA and 7.41 FIP. Con: Among 410 pitchers with at least 40 IP last year, his 3.09 HR9 ranked 410th. Con: His pitch characteristics were already marginal when he was having success (Stuff+ of 94 on his fastball and 102 on his slider in 2021-22) but they regressed big time in 2023 to 79 on the fastball and 89 on the slider.

He’s never known he was going to manage an MLB club heading into spring training, so I guess he’s never been in this specific position, but he did manage the Padres for 96 games back in 2015. He was also a head coach at Norte Dame and ASU for over 20 years. There will no doubt be some degree of a learning curve, but it shouldn’t be too steep given his past histories in the dugout and working collaboratively with this front office group for almost a decade now.

Team Remaining Free Agents (with FanGraphs Depth Charts Projected WAR) C: Pina (0.5) Zunino (0.3) IF: Belt (0.9) Solano (0.7) Andrus (0.6) Crawford (0.9) Mondesi (0.7) Chapman (3.4) OF: Bellinger (2.8) Taylor (1.2) Duvall (0.9) Pham (0.9) DH: JDM (0.6) SP: Snell (3.3) Montgomery (3.2) Clevinger (1.5) German (1.4) Lorenzen (1.3) Greinke (1.0) LR/MR: Syndegaard (0.7) Cueto (0.5) Lauer (0.5) Rucinski (0.4) SU: Martin (0.2) Bass (0.2) CL: Stanek (0.3) Had to cheat a little in the bullpen with only three FA relievers projected for even 0.2 WAR, but if I added this all up right it comes out to 14.4 WAR on offense and 14.5 WAR of pitching. That 28.9 projected WAR is better than four teams - COL (18.3), WAS (21.5), CWS (23.7), OAK (24.8) - and just behind a fifth, KCR (29.3). Assuming say $100M for the Boras four, plus some one year $5M type deals for like a half dozen of the other guys and then $1M each for the rest comes out around $150M in payroll which looking at Cots would rank 15th in MLB, just ahead of the Rockies in a somewhat hilarious bit of kismet.

Brewers comp that always pops into my head for Sal is something along the lines of Nori Aoki with better defense.

Pirates extend Keller for 5/77, buying out three free agent years. Here’s how he has fared over the last two seasons among 119 pitchers with at least 200 IP… 353 IP (19th) | 95 ERA- (62nd) | 92 FIP- (43rd) | 103 K%+ (51st) | 90 BB%+ (70th) | 84 HR9+ (28th) | 107 GB%+ (33rd) | 111 LD%+ (105th) | 4.8 rWAR (52nd) | 5.3 fWAR (37th) So his best attributes look like quantity and getting a nice amount of grounders allowing him to limit HRs, with the trade off being middling K/BB rates and a scary line drive percentage. All in all probably a good deal for the Pirates, but also not someone you really want being more than a #3 guy in a playoff calibre rotation.

Hope you are right. His seasonal totals for professional PAs so far are 268 (2021), 357 (2022) and 108 (2023) so cracking 400 would represent a new career high.

Main issue with Mitchell is he just can't be counted on to stay on the field. 29 of 54 games at Wisco and 35 of 66 games at Biloxi in 2021. 44 of 99 games at Biloxi in 2022 before finishing out mostly healthy over the last couple months at AAA/MLB. 19 of 162 games at Milwaukee in 2023 with 8 games in Nashville. All told, in three full professional seasons, Mitchell has played 187 games and taken 732 plate appearances, a little over one season of playing time.

I agree the bullpen is unlikely to match their WPA from last year, but I think the idea is that hopefully improved offense will give the bullpen a little more breathing room and less win probability they’ll be responsible for adding themselves. Last years 92 wRC+ shook out to -61.4 batting runs and -5.09 WPA, so getting back to average would be something like five to six wins up depending how that hypothetical additional offense is spread out across the leverage spectrum. If the bullpen regresses from +11.73 WPA down to something like 2018 (+5.65), 2019 (+5.22) or 2021 (+5.90) levels that’s around six wins down. Starting pitchers came in at 15.8 rWAR last year, if they regress down to 2019 (9.8) or 2018 (11.2) levels that’s another five to six wins down. Obviously that’s a lot of assumptions and back of the envelope math, but this feels like around an 86 to 88 wins or so kind of team to me.

The players union is pretty strongly against any sort of deadline in FA… “We actually made proposals to that effect to the MLBPA. They were not warmly received,” -Manfred I don’t have a problem with things as currently constituted. The game of baseball is long and drawn out with regular periods of inactivity, winter is long and drawn out with regular periods of inactivity. Free agency being long and drawn out with regular periods of inactivity flows harmoniously with the natural order of things.

I’m not sure what “(tier 1) prospect” is supposed to mean, but by my definition the only tier 1 prospect in the Padres system would be Salas. I’d say Merrill is a clear tier below Salas and easily a tier above everyone else. If one wanted to put De Vries in this tier too I could see it on upside, but he’s still so far away. Third tier for me would be the pitchers - Snelling, Lesko, Iriarte and Thorpe. This would be the most aggressive placement I could see giving to Zavala but considering the hit tool and corner OF risk, I’d have him as a tier four prospect at best, or not nearly enough to get Frelick by himself.

Burst on the scene back in 2018 as a 5’6” 17th round pick going 6-1 with a 2.18 ERA over 33 IP (mostly at Wisco when it was still low A) with a pretty ridiculous 54 Ks to only 7 BBs. Farm system was pretty weak back then so I believe he got some back end Top 20 love. Followed that up with a decent 2019 on the mound, 59 IP of 3.19 ERA split between A+/AA with 77 K and 25 BB. Also played 16 games in CF batting 333/391/381 over 69 PA with a nice 7 K vs 6 BB split. Then the pandemic happened, he got hurt and essentially lost all of 2020, 2021 and 2022. Bounced back nicely last year at Nashville with 57 IP of 2.53 ERA and 74 K vs 31 BB, but got crushed in his tiny MLB sample - 3 HR in 3 IP. Looking at the International League leaderboard minimum 50 IP last year that 2.53 ERA was good for 2nd lowest with Thomas Pannone (2.70) and Ethan Small (3.18) also cracking the Top 10 out of the Nashville pen. Andrews 31.1 K% came in 6th and his 16.1% swinging strike rate came in 4th.

Tigers fans are going on a decade of sad days now, last making the postseason in 2014. Since then they have one winning season (86-76 in 2016), and their 579-722 overall record is dead last in MLB. Torkelson has -14 DRS and -8 OAA so far in his brief career at 1B, playing Hiura (-16 DRS and -12 OAA career at 2B) next to him would be brutal. Throw in that Detroit 3B posted an MLB worst -22 DRS and -18 OAA last year and that’d be an almost 2007 Brewers level disregard for infield defense.

Over the last two seasons since changing his repertoire Junis has a 4.18 ERA and 3.69 FIP covering 198 IP. Considering FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than actual ERA is they are projecting Junis for a healthy bit of regression already.

There are 853 pitchers listed on the FanGraphs depth charts. 128 of them have a projection below a 3.90 ERA. 139 of them have a projection above a 4.80 ERA. They are projecting 68.7% of pitchers between that range, well short of 90%. So...nope.