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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I preferred the format with fewer teams, too, though it still kicked out it’s fair share of upsets, long shots, underdogs, didn’t even deserve to be there in the first place, whatever one wants to call them, WS Champions. That the Brewers have essentially ascended for many to the level of the Favre/Rodgers Packers, or Giannis Bucks - wake me up at the Conference Finals - is pretty remarkable all things considered. The ship sailed on the World Series pitting the two best teams against one another to crown the One True Champion a long time ago. Capitalism demands that we will only get farther away from that ideal as time goes on. I’ve accepted the amplified randomness of the postseason as an inevitability and look forward to how it specifically unfolds each autumn.
  2. sveumrules
    They could expand the playoff field to seven or eight teams per league and it wouldn’t add any calendar time, just drop the bye from two to one or zero teams. Now if they did that, and switched the opening round to best of five and DS to best of seven (to help out those better 162 game teams) you’re talking four extra games, or going from what is currently a four week tournament to five weeks, still well short of two months.
  3. sveumrules
    Since giving up 3 ER in his 2.2 IP vs the Brewers, Pfaadt has thrown 10 IP with 0 ER | 0 BB | 4 H | 11 K in two starts vs LAD and PHI.
  4. sveumrules
    Extra funny with the road team winning every game in the ALCS is that Houston only ended up with home field dis-advantage by winning the division via tiebreaker on the last day of the regular season.
  5. sveumrules
    Not a whole lot of out there about Roller as a 30th rounder out of Community College back in 2017, but seems like he kinda fits that Blake Perkins profile of a plus defensive CF with late developing bat. Nice depth piece that will give them a little more cushion exploring trades for Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick, Taylor, Perkins in the offseason.
  6. sveumrules
    So I guess the 161 K were meant for this most recent moment then too? Or is that not how these things work?
  7. sveumrules
    The Phillies hit 275/373/565 vs ATL compared to 253/337/513 so far vs ARI. Did the Braves have no business being in the postseason either?
  8. sveumrules
    Agree on pretty much all counts, @Joseph Zarr. Outside of the obvious health caveats, this season is primarily going to boil down to how much ball dominance Giannis is willing to cede over to Dame. Point Giannis needs to be relegated to after grabbing a defensive board or when he is leading the 2nd unit while Dame isn’t on the floor.
  9. sveumrules
    Just watched Everything Everywhere All At Once for the first time.
  10. sveumrules
    Feels like Canha’s option decision could be an indicator as to which path the Brewers offseason is more likely to take. If they pick it up, that probably tilts the odds more towards keeping Burnes/Adames for next year versus declining the option likely tipping the scales more towards dealing Burnes/Adames (and maybe Williams too while they’re at it).
  11. sveumrules
    Don’t even have to squint to see the Sal Frelick comp for Luis. Guess the big differences would be switch hitter vs lefty, and then Lara being essentially three years ahead of Sal in terms of age relative to level assuming he opens next year in Wisco at age 19 vs Frelick opening there in 2022 at age 22. Even if Luis spends a whole year at each level, that would still have him in the MLB conversation around age 22.
  12. sveumrules
    Terry Stotts has resigned from his role on the Bucks coaching staff. Haven’t seen an official reason given, but has to be either health/family related, didn’t want to re-commit to the daily grind at age 65 after two years off, or some kind of butting of heads with coach Griff slash maybe lingering bad blood with Dame from their Portland days? Whatever the cause, it leaves a pretty big hole in the coaching staff on the precipice of the regular season. Guessing Prunty just gets promoted to lead assistant? Also saw D’Antoni currently has an advisor role with the Pelicans, maybe a lead assistant gig with a Championship contender could entice him away?
  13. sveumrules
    Looks like it's a split of 75% manager & coach voting with the other 25% coming via the Saber Defensive Index (which appears to be a mix of DRS and StatCast). Contreras had a great year behind the plate, especially in the framing department, but Moreno and Bailey were 1st/2nd in the NL for both DRS and Statcast throwing runs so it's not like they were slouches back there. JTR started 14 extra games and caught 128 more innings than even the 2nd most prolific NL catcher, and had Contreras by 22 starts and 200 innings. I have no problem with him getting the 3rd finalist spot on the quantity gap alone considering the attrition rate behind the dish.
  14. sveumrules
    2018 draft had high school hitters Turang, Joe Gray Jr. and Micah Bello as the first three picks. HSHs selected between then and the most recent draft were… 2019: Darrien Miller (9th round) 2020: none 2021: Roc Riggio (11th round, didn’t sign), Quinton Low (13th round, two way player), Jace Avina (14th round) 2022; Dylan O’Rae (4th round), Luke Adams (12th round) Definitely exciting for the Brewers to land both Pratt and Bitonti as we haven’t really had teenage infield power prospects of that calibre since I don’t even really know off the top my head, Brett Lawrie maybe?
  15. sveumrules
    BRef has phonetic pronunciations on some player pages, but nothing for Boeve. Maybe because he’s still in the minors? There was a Joe Boever that played in MLB from 1985-96, and BRef has that pronounced BAY-ver. Based on that, I would guess Boeve rhymes with forgave or could be substituted in Sonny & Cher’s hit “I’ve Got You Boeve”.
  16. sveumrules
    Those are two rather large assumptions stated as future certainties. The lowest attendance in MP/AmFam history was 1.7M back in 2003, 21K per game twenty years ago. With a capacity of 41,900 attendance would essentially have to slice that 2003 number in half to to 10.5K per game to hit 3/4 empty. The only two games under 20K this year were the Tuesday/Wednesday after Opening Day. I’ll take the over.
  17. sveumrules
    Entering today it’s the Phillies at 137 wRC+. Brewers hit 309/385/382 (114 wRC+).
  18. sveumrules
    During their draft summers... Brown hit 308/471/539 (17 PA) in the ACL Boeve hit 500/556/1000 (36 PA) in the ACL Brown hit 262/370/441 (100 PA) at CAR Boeve hit 250/333/333 (84 PA) at WIS Boeve hasn't had a crack at his first full season yet, but Brown hit... Slow Start A+: 12 G | 54 PA | 102/185/102 Figured It Out A+: 36 G | 162 PA | 326/426/437 INJURED Return from Injury/Promoted to AA A+/AA: 20 G | 79 PA | 235/329/309 Currently in Fall League AZL: 8 G | 35 PA | 314/400/457 So we've seen Brown hit for 17 PA in the ACL, 100 PA at CAR, 162 PA at WIS and now 35 PA in the AZL versus only seeing Boeve hit for 36 PA in the ACL. I hope that Boeve turns out like Black too, but that's putting a lot of faith into those 36 PAs as a man among boys on the complex. Brown has a performance record well beyond that level already while being worlds better on the bases and in the field.
  19. sveumrules
    Because Hiura was also injured from May 13th until June 16th. Winker didn’t hit the IL until May 27th. Ruf got hurt June 2nd. When Hiura did return he didn’t have the same pop with only 114 wRC+ from June 16 through July 31 compared to a 157 wRC+ before getting hurt. By the time Rowdy went on the IL they had already traded for Santana and Canha to fill 1B/DH down the stretch.
  20. sveumrules
    MLBTR projected $11.6M, would guess he signs something like 2/25. $5M this year to rehab, and then $20M (right around the same as the QO) for 2025.
  21. sveumrules
    I think all he's saying is that the Brewers (5 runs in 2 games), scored more runs per game this postseason than the Dodgers (6 runs in 3 games) or Braves (8 runs in 4 games). Nowhere did he say he was content with anything. I think it makes plenty of sense to post the comment. It is another data point to show how truly random outcomes can occur over such small samples even to the very best teams in the game. Context is important. If anyone said coming into the postseason that the Brewers offense would score more runs per game than the Braves or Dodgers they would have been openly mocked, and rightly so. But it still happened anyway...because the postseason is largely random.
  22. sveumrules
    I don't think he's a surefire no doubt MLB shortstop at this point, but after what he showed this year (when healthy) I think the odds are better now that he sticks at SS than they were when he was originally drafted. If not, he should be easily plus at 2B.
  23. sveumrules
    Tight voting definitely captures the thin margins separating the three top candidates. I probably would have voted for Williams #1 since he was the most consistent all year finishing up with +4.09 WPA and 2.9 rWAR as the top dog in what ended up being the best bullpen in MLB by both WPA (+11.73) and rWAR (8.6). On strict performance I probably would have had Burnes #2 because while the peripherals were similar (matching 87 FIP- marks for both Corbin & Freddy), Burnes did throw those extra 28 innings with better run prevention. Freddy would be #3 for me, but I can see how he came out on top since his performance exceeded expectations whereas Devin more or less met expectations and Corbin probably ended up short of where most hoped he would.
  24. sveumrules
    Can’t quibble too much considering I forgot to vote and it’s only a couple two tree spots, but I’d have a hard time putting EBJ any lower than 8th. Nothing against the guys immediately ahead of him, but Boeve is going to have to hit & hit well considering the limitations of the rest of his profile. His bat might have a higher floor than EBJ’s, but the rest of the profile just doesn’t compare. Pratt is going to be two whole levels behind EBJ to open 2024 and there is just so much volatility with teenage prospects it’s hard for me to put him ahead of EBJ, who has a more stable profile with success already at A+. Lara has the best case with his success as an 18 year old legit CF in A ball already, but I’d still give the slight edge to EBJ since he’s a little farther up ladder and has better physicality with Lara not really having a frame that projects huge growth in that department.
  25. sveumrules
    Yeah, for as seemingly extra random as this postseason has been, the odds are favoring a rematch of last Fall Classic with HOU (33.8% WS odds at FanGraphs) and PHI (32.0%) favored over TEX (17.7%) and ARI (16.5%) entering the LCS. At the same time, a rematch of last year would be a pretty extra random outcome in and of itself since the same two teams haven’t met in consecutive World Series since 1977/78.
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