sveumrules

Kevin Pillar, Eddie Rosario and Vaughn Grissom make the last three outs for the Braves historically great offense.

Yelich came in at 4.1 fWAR in 2023. Throw some quick and dirty age curve on there and let’s say he comes in at 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 1.0 and that’s about 12 WAR projected over the 5/$136.5M he has left at this point. At around $10M per WAR (average 2023 rate of production for players in his salary range) the raw negative value on his deal would be under $20M with a 12 WAR projection. BTV says negative 40 million, so not too far off, nudge the projection or the dollar/WAR some in whatever direction and you are essentially there. They probably give his trade value a negative hit for the NTC too. This is probably the closest Yelich’s deal has been to the break even point since he signed it, but I still think the obstacles are a few too many for there to be a realistic chance of him getting dealt this winter.

He was pinch hitting for Miguel Rojas, 69 wRC+ this year (52 wRC+ vs RHP). Wong stunk most of the season, but at least put up a 130 wRC+ in his 34 PA once joining the Dodgers, and had the platoon advantage for the AB since ARI had just brought in the righty. ZiPS (94 to 79) and Steamer (94 to 86) both favor Wong by wRC+ projection at this point, so Roberts was trying to get his team a marginal edge there. But yeah, even at $240M the Dodgers have to rely on some sketchy options at the back end after the top six, seven guys.

They mentioned during the game that the Braves scoreless streak to open the postseason was the longest for a 100 Win team since the 1986 Mets…things turned out okay for them.

This was his pre-season report from FanGraphs, where they gave him a 35+ FV… The soft-tossing Seminaris, acquired from the Angels as part of the Hunter Renfroe trade, had a 2022 spike in walks after he was promoted to Double-A, which is totally uncharacteristic of what has historically been a command-first profile. The underlying pitch data suggests he’s still throwing plenty of strikes, so expect him to rebound in this area going forward. None of his repertoire is plus, but he mixes a ton of different pitches: 58% fastballs (a mix of four- and two-seamers), then 14% each slider, changeup, and curveball. The changeup has been evaluated as plus here in the past but it played more like an average pitch in 2022. He’s trending more like a sixth-to-eighth starter or bulk reliever, and will act as viable upper-level depth without occupying a 40-man spot in 2023.

This seems like another case where people might be attributing way too much meaning to a tiny sample of playoff games. Historically, playoff teams with 4 or more days rest are 24-11 when facing a team with 2 or fewer days rest. From 2015 through last year teams with 4 or more days rest had a 15 game winning streak when facing teams with 2 or fewer days rest.

Counting Game 163 the Brewers were 7-3 in their first ten postseason games back in 2018. Obviously the predictive power of that ten game sample has turned out to be nil. I’d likewise hope this most recent ten game sample (spread out over five years) has minimal influence over potential future playoff results. At the same time, in a macro sense we are pretty close organizationally to the Twins within the economics & geography of MLB, and they lost 18 straight playoff games over almost 20 years before starting off this particular postseason 3-1.

Age (33) and injury concerns (career high is 359 PA in a season) will probably limit his deal, but he can definitely rake with a 138 wRC+ over 344 PA this year and a 130 wRC+ over 1,242 PA going back to 2019. Maybe he gets something like 2 years for $25M? MLBTR article about him today noted he only caught 25 games over the last four months after returning from injury, but he could be primary DH/backup C to open the season then slide into more of a DH only role once Quero is ready. Only has 51 career MLB innings at 1B, but would imagine he’d be fine out there once a week or so if needed.

Pretty big odds shift with ARI and PHI winning the first games of their series. Fangraphs now has the NL teams World Series odds at 18.5% (ATL and PHI) then 9.1% for ARI and 9.0% for LAD.

How did I think wrong? I repeated your exact timeline. You said you expect it to happen, an expectation implies a much higher degree of certainty than mere speculation. I’m not offended in the least. Just a curious party on an internet message board.

MLB Trade Rumors dropped their projected arbitration salaries for 2024, with the dozen eligible Brewers coming in at… Brandon Woodruff: $11.6MM Willy Adames: $12.4MM Corbin Burnes: $15.1MM Adrian Houser: $5.6MM Rowdy Tellez: $5.9MM Eric Lauer: $5.2MM Hoby Milner: $1.7MM Devin Williams: $6.5MM Tyrone Taylor: $1.7MM Bryse Wilson: $1.3MM Joel Payamps: $1.7MM Abraham Toro: $1.3MM Would imagine that Rowdy, Lauer & Toro will be non-tendered at those numbers.

I thought your expectation for a sale was Spring 2025, maybe Feb 2024 at the earliest? Or has the timeline moved up now?

Hoskins is about as consistent as it gets. 127 wRC+ in 2021, 122 wRC+ in 2022, 126 wRC+ for his career. Brandon Belt was heavily platooned with 365 of his 404 PA coming vs RHP, but he posted a 138 wRC+ on the season. He was also primarily a DH (only 28 starts at 1B) and will be going into his age 36 season. Was paid $9.3M last year, so will probably want a raise on another one year deal. Scanning the wRC+ leaderboard for 2023 (minimum 250 PA) I see a Matt Wallner on the Twins with a 144 wRC+. What's the scoop on him @Brock Beauchamp? Looks like he has raked throughout his minor league career, but will never provide any defensive value and is likely a platoon only bat. Who knows what Colorado is ever doing, could try to pry Nolan Jones (135 wRC+ in 424 PA) loose. Rays love to deal and could probably stand to move one of Harold Ramirez (128 wRC+ in 434 PA), Luke Raley (130 wRC+ in 406 PA) or Josh Lowe (131 wRC+ in 501 PA). Ramirez and Raley don't really have any defensive value, but Lowe put up decent defensive numbers in RF this year. Luis Robert (128 wRC+ in 595 PA) could be the biggest name on the trade market, while Eloy ended up with only a 105 wRC+ over 489 PA so not sure he qualifies as a power bat at this point. If the Yankees want to shake it up maybe Gleyber Torres (123 wRC+ over 672 PA) could be had via trade? As far as the get a power prospect for Burnes route guys like Curtis Mead (TBR) or Coby Mayo (BAL) are probably a little too ambitious of asks. Maybe somebody like Colt Keith (DET) or Brady House (WAS) could be in play if the Tigers/Nationals want to try to kickstart the rebuild? Dodgers would probably part with Andy Pages, but he wouldn't be ready from the jump (if at all) in 2024.

Postseason field is set, so here are the World Series Odds for each team from FanGraphs & BPro... FG: ATL (28.6%) | HOU (16.8%) | LAD (12.9%) | TBR (7.1%) | PHI (6.8%) | BAL (5.2%) | MIL (5.0%) | TOR (5.0%) | MIN (4.5%) | TEX (3.8%) | ARI (2.8%) | MIA (1.4%) BPro: ATL (18.2%) | HOU (16.2%) | LAD (15.9%) | BAL (15.9%) | MIN (6.2%) | MIL (5.3%) | TBR (4.8%) | MIA (4.3%) | PHI (4.2%) | TOR (4.1%) | ARI (2.7%) | TEX (2.2%) Some interesting divergences between the two systems. Both have ATL favored, though FG has their odds 10.4% higher. FG seems to like the NL more in general with a 57.5% to 42.5% split, though most of that difference is accounted for by ATL. Other biggest split is BAL (5.2% vs 15.9%).

Above all else, this sucks for Brandon Woodruff. Impossible not to feel for a guy who has been such a huge part of the organization’s success over the last six seasons. Ideally, he can get this thing right with an offseason of rest/rehab, then put up a 30 start platform season in 2024 and secure a multi year deal in FA. As for the postseason, it takes what was a slightly weighted coin flip in our favor for the WC round to more of a true 50/50 toss. If we survive that, what was already going to be an uphill climb will just be that much steeper. Hopefully, this galvanizes the team, they go on an improbable run and win the whole dang shebang for Woody. Those are the outcomes I’ll be pulling for, however improbable they may be.

Now that the regular season is a wrap and all the stats are in the books and on the servers, thought I'd do a quick rundown on how much bang teams got for their proverbial bucks at the top of the free agent market. Player salaries via SpotRac and WAR totals via FanGraphs, using runs allowed based WAR for the pitchers... Scherzer ($43.33M) 3.1 WAR Verlander ($43.33M) 4.1 WAR Judge ($40M) 5.2 WAR ($40M+ tier: 3 at $126.66M for 12.4 WAR) Rendon ($38.57M) 0.2 WAR Trout ($37.12M) 3.0 WAR Cole ($36M) 7.0 WAR Seager ($35.5M) 6.1 WAR Arenado ($35.03M) 2.6 WAR Strasburg ($35M) 0.0 WAR ($35M+ tier: 6 at $217.22M for 18.9 WAR) Lindor ($34.1M) 5.9 WAR Correa ($33.33M) 1.1 WAR Stanton ($32M) -0.8 WAR Cabrera ($32M) -0.8 WAR Bregman ($30.5M) 4.3 WAR deGrom ($30M) 0.9 WAR ($30M+ tier: 6 at $191.93 for 10.6 WAR) Altuve ($29M) 4.0 WAR Bryant ($28M) -1.1 WAR Harper ($27.54M) 3.3 WAR Sale ($27.5M) 1.8 WAR Turner ($27.27M) 3.8 WAR Freeman ($27M) 7.9 WAR Yelich ($26M) 4.1 WAR Goldy ($26M) 3.6 WAR Semien ($26M) 6.2 WAR Xander ($25.45M) 4.4 WAR Stroman ($25M) 2.0 WAR Darvish ($25M) 1.5 WAR Votto ($25M) 0.0 WAR Mookie ($25M) 8.2 WAR ($25M+ tier: 14 at $369.76M for 49.7 WAR) Wheeler ($24.5M) 4.7 WAR Corbin ($24.42M) 0.8 WAR Springer ($24.17M) 2.2 WAR Realmuto ($23.88M) 1.4 WAR Rodon ($22.83M) -0.1 WAR Baez ($22M) 0.8 WAR Ray ($21M) -0.2 WAR Gausman ($21M) 4.5 WAR Olson ($21M) 6.6 WAR Marte ($20.75) -0.3 WAR Mikolas ($20.42) 2.1 WAR Morton ($20M) 3.7 WAR Kershaw ($20M) 4.8 WAR Musgrove ($20M) 2.8 WAR Ryu ($20M) 0.8 WAR Schwarber ($20M) 1.4 WAR Castellanos ($20M) 1.0 WAR Perez ($20M) -0.3 WAR Story ($20M) 0.1 WAR ($20M+ tier: 19 at $405.97M for 36.8 WAR) So, in total 48 players individually made $20M or more during 2023 (I didn't include Soto at $23M or Ohtani at $30M since they were one year Arby contracts) with total combined compensation of almost $1.312B in exchange for something like 128.4 WAR, or a little over $10M per win at the very top of the market.

So rotation prolly looks something like this heading into training camp then… Dame | Payne Patty | Beasley | Green Khris | Marjon | AJJ Giannis | Jae | Thanasis Brook | Bobby | Robin Biggest question is probably who starts at the two. Patty seems more like a fifth starter do all the little things glue guy who is already familiar with our stars vs Beasley as more of a 6th/7th man gunner off the bench. Should also be interesting to see how Marjon and AJJ do as the only real youngsters on the team and if Griffin can mold them into playable wings.

Should be a fun lineup today, er no? Maybe something like… Frelick RF Monasterio 2B Rowdy 1B Donsldson 3B Caratini Cat Mitchell LF Taylor DH Perkins CF Turang SS

Yeah, if he was still in the running for the CY at this point I guess I could see it, but even in a crowded NL field with no standout winner he should still finish behind all of Snell, Gallen, Wheeler, Strider and Webb

That SF roster had a $187M opening day price tag, 10th in MLB per Cots. Giants didn’t fail quite as spectacularly as the Mets (72-86 | $331M) or Yankees (81-79 | $278M) or Padres (80-80 | $249M) or Angels (72-88 | $212M) or White Sox (61-99 | $181M) or Cardinals (69-91 | $177M) or Rockies (58-102 | $172M) in terms of dollars per win (some pretty steep competition this year), but they came up short of expectations two seasons in a row now either way. Closest match for SF this year was probably Boston (77-83 | $181M), and they just fired Bloom. Gabe had the one out of nowhere year in 2021 when SF went 107-55, but kinda crazy how close he has been to .500 every other season, 80-82 then 81-81 his two seasons in Philly, followed by 29-31, 81-81 and now 78-81 with the Giants outside of 2021.

Cubs have the same record as the Reds and are playing against a team you literally said was trying to lose on purpose a few pages back. There’s still a mathematical chance CHI ends up tied with ARI, so might as well include them in the discussion until that chance actually reaches zero.

Except vs the Cubs, who they are 6-1 against head to head.

Miami is 4-2 vs Arizona so they hold the tiebreaker there. DBacks only have the tiebreaker over the Cubs, due to their 6-1 head to head advantage.

Not bad for a team who had already decided to lose on purpose.

This must be a misprint, I feel like I remember being guaranteed somewhere by someone that Candelario would outhit SantanCanha combined.