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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Right, even after winning World Series MVP with the Braves they didn’t think he was worth retaining at the 3/36 with two opt outs he got from the Marlins.
  2. sveumrules
    The metrics aren’t just from earlier in his career, among 102 OF with at least 1,400 innings from 2021-23 Soler comes in at -17 DRS (93rd), -12 OAA (91st) and -10.9 UZR (95th). The argument against him being a valuable hitter for the next three years from age 32-34 is that he was only a valuable hitter for one of the previous three seasons from age 29-31.
  3. sveumrules
    Yeah, last three years it’s… Sanchez (1178 PAs) 99 wRC+ | +15.8 DEF | 4.6 WAR Soler (1488 PAs) 109 wRC+ | -36.8 DEF | 2.0 WAR Soler is a great example for how high the bar is for bat only players to provide any meaningful value. Last year he put up a 126 wRC+, that’s good, but still only worth 1.9 WAR when all you can do is DH on account of brutal OF defense. The two years before that where he put up 908 PAs of only a 98 wRC+ he was a fraction above replacement level at 0.1 WAR, 147th of 151 players with at least 900 PAs from 2021-22.
  4. sveumrules
    International League was brutal for pitchers last year. League average ERA was 5.18 and league average WHIP was at 1.536. There were only 22 pitchers who threw at least 100 IP, but among that group Gasser ranked 2nd in ERA and 4th in WHIP. His 3.32 K/BB ratio and 3.71 FIP also both ranked 2nd. One of the guys with a lower WHIP was Evan McKendry who we acquired from TBR for Alex Jackson.
  5. sveumrules
    Looks like Miami will be without Butler, Rozier & Richardson tonight and Bucks starters all only played between 23-30 minutes with the easy win last night, so hopefully should be able to take care of business on the B2B. Then last game before the break is at Memphis, who are currently on a nine game losing streak and will be playing the second game of their own B2B. Good opportunity to go into the ASB with some nice positive momentum if they can capitalize on it.
  6. sveumrules
    Bucks hold the Nuggets to 95 points for their second straight win holding a team under 100. Last time that they held opponents under 100 in back to back games was November 2021.
  7. sveumrules
    That’s pretty much what it boils down to. Limiting walks helps, getting grounders and soft contact is good too, but ultimately Ks are King. There are 104 pitchers with at least 300 IP since 2021. Sorting the leaderboard by ERA- it looks like the Top 8 all have an above average K%+. First guy with a below average K rate is Sandy Alcantara at #9 though his 99 K%+ is just the tiniest bit below the line. The aforementioned Miley (76 K%+ | 75 ERA-) at #11 is the first guy on the list notably below average at getting punch outs, with Ranger Suarez (97 K%+ | 76 ERA-) at #12 another guy just below average. After that everyone from #13 to #43 on the list has a K%+ of 99 or better with the exception of Marcus Stroman (93 K%+ | 84 ERA-) at #34 on the leaderboard. All told there are 44 pitchers over the last three years to have posted an 89 ERA- or lower over at least 300 IP. Of those 44 only Miley, Suarez, Stroman and Martin Perez (82 K%+ | 89 ERA-) posted a K%+ below 99. The other three guys joining Alcantara with a 99 K%+ were Jordan Montgomery, Merrill Kelly and Patrick Sandoval.
  8. sveumrules
    Apparently the ask from the Reds was something like three of Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips or Chase Petty. Those were the #2, 3, 4, and 6 Reds prospects on the last MLB list with respective BTV surplus values of $14.1M, $14.9M, $26.2M and $13M currently. From that I would gather the White Sox value Cease closer to $50M in surplus value so would probably want something like Frelick, plus two of Gasser, Wilken and Lara at minimum.
  9. sveumrules
    Anytime someone posts a 2.58 ERA vs a 4.13 FIP, they are likely due for some regression on their run prevention. The good news for Wilson is that the Brewers were the best team in MLB last year when it came to FIP beating with a 3.73 team ERA to go along with a 4.21 team FIP. It wasn’t a one year blip either, going all the way back to 2016 they have been the 3rd biggest FIP beaters in MLB at a 3.91 team ERA vs a 4.12 team FIP. I’d expect some regression, but not as much as the projections are anticipating, because they struggle with consistent FIP beaters - a big reason the Brewers have consistently beat their projections. Look at Wade Miley, going back to his first stint with the Brewers in 2018 he has a 3.43 ERA vs a 4.24 FIP making him the biggest FIP beater in MLB with at least 500 IP. Still, even with a sample that large of beating his FIP, the best projection he has is for a 4.24 ERA coming off of a 3.26 ERA and 4.24 FIP over the last three years and 300 IP.
  10. sveumrules
    Dunn played all of his age 25 season at AA, Devanney played most of his age 25 season in AA (459 PAs) with a brief cameo at AAA (56 PAs). Here’s how their production lined up… Dunn 271/396/506 (148 wRC+) 16.2 BB% | 27.5 K% | 16 SB / 5 CS Devanney 264/342/496 (116 wRC+) 9.3 BB% | 21.4 K% | 6 SB / 2 CS Main advantage Dunn has is that he walks way more with those extra 54 points of OBP accounting for most of his 32 point edge in wRC+. He also is better on the bases with another 12 SB / 0 CS while lighting up the AFL. Devanney has the edge on defense and doesn’t strike out as much, but as the wRC+ bears out Dunn’s seven extra walks every 100 PAs are way more valuable than Devsnney’s six fewer strikeouts.
  11. sveumrules
    From what I understand the big game is imminent. Reports indicate funny commercials and a big musical number will be sprinkled in throughout.
  12. sveumrules
    I don't see Adames agreeing to move off of SS - where he has posted +17 DRS (4th) and +25 OAA (2nd) the last two years - on the eve of free agency.
  13. sveumrules
    Right, Cortez had sheer dominance. If one were going to try to rationalize any of these three pitchers being ranked #3 on stats alone (because I'm pretty sure no one on this board has actually seen them pitch) he would be the one. Among 67 pitchers aged 16/17 in the DSL with at least 30 IP his 9.80 K/BB ranked 1st, his 0.99 BB/9 ranked 1st, his 2.64 FIP ranked 3rd, his 3.09 xFIP ranked 2nd. Hernandez is ten months younger, sure, but his meaningful indicators weren't nearly as impressive - 7.81 K9 vs 9.66 K9, 2.31 BB9 vs 0.99 BB9 - that's why his FIP came in almost a full run higher at 3.58. Still encouraging no doubt, but only 12th among those 67 DSL pitchers aged 16/17 to throw at least 30 IP. Comparing Prado to Misiorowski on raw stats is Apples to Filet Mignon. One put up his numbers in the DSL, the other in the Carolina, Midwest and Southern Leagues. This is multiple magnitudes of difference in competition level. Not to mention there exists video evidence of Misio being a mammoth human with ridiculous stuff. We literally know nothing about Prado (or any of these guys) besides what it says on a computer screen. "I can't see/know exactly what", sums up our collective knowledge of these pitchers outside of their stat lines pretty well.
  14. sveumrules
    These are fun guys to keep an eye on no doubt given their encouraging DSL results at such young ages, but the main outlier for Hernandez and Prado is that their ERAs (2.06 and 1.54) are so much lower than their peripherals would imply (3.58 and 3.91 FIPs, respectively). Cortez is easily the most exciting for me from a statistical standpoint since his 2.64 FIP is on a whole other level compared to the other two. EC: 9.66 K9 | 0.99 BB9 | 9.80 K/BB | 0.20 HR9 MH: 7.71 K9 | 2.31 BB9 | 3.33 K/BB | 0.26 HR9 EP: 8.12 K9 | 3.07 BB9 | 2.64 K/BB | 0.44 HR9 Hopefully some of them make it over to Arizona this year so we can get further intel. As we've seen with guys like Edwin Jimenez, Stiven Cruz, Alexander Cornielle, and Alexander Vallecillo recently it's a long road from encouraging DSL results to replicating those outlier performances over larger samples against more advanced competition at the lower levels stateside.
  15. sveumrules
    Way to go to everybody who took the time to put together a list. Breaking down the votes somewhat I'd say the tiers are essentially something like this... BIG TIME STUD Jackson Chourio (34 of 36 #1 Votes) CONSENSUS TOP 50 TYPES Jeferson Quero (33 of 36 #2 to #4 Votes) Jacob Misiorowski (31 of 36 #2 to #4 Votes) Tyler Black (29 of 36 #2 to #4 Votes) TOP 100 OR JUST OUTSIDE OF IT TYPES Brock Wilken (#4 High to #11 Low) Robert Gasser (#4 High to #10 Low) DL Hall (#3 High to #12 Low) Joey Ortiz (#4 High to #15 Low) Carlos Rodriguez (#4 High to #12 Low) Luis Lara (#5 High to #19 Low) HIGHER UPSIDE NEXT WAVE Cooper Pratt (#7 High to #15 Low) Eric Brown Jr (#8 High to UR Low) Josh Knoth (#9 High to UR Low) Yophery Rodriguez (#5 High to UR Low) STILL PRETTY DANG EXCITING NEXT WAVE Mike Boeve (#12 High to UR Low) Luke Adams (#11 High to UR Low) Eric Bitonti (#13 High to UR Low) Logan Henderson (#10 High to UR Low) Those 18 were all pretty much on the majority of the ballots submitted. After that looks like Baez and Guilarte got the most votes among a group of guys like Wes Clarke, Shane Smith, Dylan O'Rae, Bradley Blalock, Coleman Crow, Ryan Birchard, Oliver Dunn, Jadher Areinamo, Patricio Aquino, Jorge Quintana and others who got a couple few votes each.
  16. sveumrules
    Jackson ChourioJeferson QueroTyler BlackJacob MisiorowskiDL HallJoey OrtizBrock WilkenEric Brown JrLuis LaraRobert GasserCarlos F RodriguezCooper PrattJosh KnothYophery RodriguezLuke AdamsEric BitontiLogan HendersonBradley BlalockOliver DunnDylan O'Rae
  17. sveumrules
    I’d imagine his teammates especially are far more understanding than the fans. They live the business side of baseball everyday and are far more familiar with the actual real life stakes, we just observe and comment. Either way, it came out that Hader had one of the cleanest health reports of any FA pitcher ever, and he got a record setting contract, and the Brewers never really lost a beat when he moved from fireman to closer man, and now we have Contreras, Payamps, and Gasser to show for it all…so I’d say it turned out pretty ok for all involved parties.
  18. sveumrules
    Early ZiPS projected NL standings are up over at FanGraphs today. Has the NLC win totals at…STL (83) CHI (81) MIL (80) CIN (79) PIT (75) Here is where it saw the NLC at the same time last year with the actual win total following the projection… STL (91, 71) MIL (83, 92) CHC (78, 83) CIN (70, 82) PIT (68, 76) Twelve wins seems like a pretty steep drop to me. No Burnes (4.8 rWAR), Woodruff (2.8 rWAR) or Houser (1.4 rWAR) is 9 wins of rotation mainstays gone. But no Lauer (-0.8 rWAR), Bush (-0.7 rWAR) or Chafin (-0.4 rWAR) eats into that by a couple wins. Offense is a few wins worse with no Caratini (1.1 WAR), Canha (1.0 WAR), Taylor (0.8 WAR) or Santana (0.7 WAR). But not having guys like Rowdy (-0.9 WAR), Winker (-0.8 WAR), Brosseau (-0.5 WAR), Voit (-0.4 WAR) or Singleton (-0.4 WAR) wipes most of that out. On paper, I’d see 2024 about seven or eight wins short of 2023 before accounting for offseason additions and hopeful improvement from a stable of young position players.
  19. sveumrules
    Lillard hurt, Middleton hurt, Lopez missed the last few games before last night for the birth of his child. Integral players shuffling in and out of the lineup (and literally having zero healthy point guards last night after Payne was dealt) will have a discombobulating effect. Rivers took over on a five game road trip out West that was always going to be one of the tougher stretches of the season, even if they hired Nurse in the offseason like everybody but Giannis knew they should have. My expectation was always that it would take time to undo Griffin’s idiocy and they would get worse in the short term, especially considering they had one of the easier first half schedules and one of the more difficult second half slates.
  20. sveumrules
    Junis 2023: 0.7 WAR Sanchez 2023: 1.7 WAR Turner 2023: 1.2 WAR So instead of a 39 year old DH they got two 31 year olds that can contribute from the rotation, the bullpen, catcher and DH who were already twice as valuable as a 38 year old Turner. Turner is what he is and his wRC+ has been falling for three straight years, Junis and Sanchez both have areas where the Brewers could help them improve still.
  21. sveumrules
    Yup. Giants 2022-23 -79 DRS (28th) 3.94 ERA vs 3.67 FIP +0.27 difference (26th) Brewers 2022-23 +113 DRS (2nd) 3.78 ERA vs 4.07 FIP -0.29 difference (3rd) On average, pitching for the Brewers vs the Giants the last two years would net a pitcher over half a run improvement on their ERA. And that’s with SF playing in one of thee most favorable pitching environments in baseball.
  22. sveumrules
    Last year Caratini got 226 PAs. I’d guess Sanchez gets more than that because he can be a DH option on days he isn’t catching. Barring a return to early career form on offense, or an injury to Contreras, I’d guess he comes in around 300 PAs. Sanchez put up 1.7 WAR in only 276 PAs last year, 15th among 36 catchers with at least 250 PA in 2023. If he matches that production this year he’ll be a steal for $7M.
  23. sveumrules
    2023 Haase: -1.4 WAR 2023 Sanchez: 1.7 WAR Among 32 catchers with at least 750 PAs since 2021 Sanchez ranks 15th with a 99 wRC+ and 13th with 4.6 WAR (same as Mitch Garver). We just added a starting calibre catcher to be our backup.
  24. sveumrules
    Just one more roadblock for Catcher of the Future Wes Clarke.
  25. sveumrules
    Belt makes the most sense to me of the guys still out there. DH everyday vs RHP and spell Hoskins at 1B as needed. I’d be fine with JDM too, costs more and doesn’t give any positional flex, but would be a certified middle of the order masher. Don’t see then going multiple years on a DH only guy, so prolly no dice on Soler unless he wants to take a high dollar short term deal like Teoscar did with the Dodgers. Dark horse move could be trading Adames, then reinvesting the money saved on him and Burnes to sign Matt Chapman.
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