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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    The two years before acquiring Lind he hit 301/366/490 (136 wRC+). The two years before acquiring Bauers he hit 206/285/340 (75 wRC+). What exactly is giving you Adam Lind vibes?
  2. sveumrules
    Yeah. Top three Brewers are pretty easy at Yount (66.5 WAR), Molitor (56.0 WAR) and Braun (43.6 WAR). Gets a little murky after that with Lucroy (35.3 WAR, about 15 of which comes from framing), Cooper (29.5 WAR) next on the WAR leaderboard. Lots of people would have Prince in the convo for Top 5 on the strength of his 141 wRC+, but he only racked up 20.0 WAR on account of about 15 wins lost to baserunning/defense. If Chourio puts up something like 30 WAR over his six years of team control, I'd say that would be pretty pretty good.
  3. sveumrules
    Steamer projects Castellanos for a 101 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR for 2023 versus a 116 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR for Yelich in 2023. Castellanos might have some power, but that is it. His defense and base running kill his value. I view Yelich as incredibly unlikely to waive his NTC anyway, but if he did I would hope we eat as much money as possible to get the best prospect return instead of taking back a slightly less onerous contract for a worse player.
  4. sveumrules
    Have Brewers revenues gone through the roof at the same rate that player salaries have? Or is it primarily driven by a few teams at the top of the market with large revenue advantages over much of the league? Spotrac has the Brewers 19th in payroll for each of 2021, 2022 ($30M jump) and 2023. At worst it looks like they’ve been maintaining the status quo relative to the rest of the league. What level of spending do people believe would be more appropriate for the 30th largest market? To pass the White Sox for 15th they would have had to spend an extra $40M last year. An extra $65M would have got them over the Cubs for 11th. The Brewers won the 5th most games last year. The team with the 5th highest payroll (PHI) spent an extra $120M.
  5. sveumrules
    3/60 for 32 year old Castellanos coming off a 102 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR the last two years. or 5/136.5 for 32 year old Yelich coming off a 116 wRC+ and 6.4 WAR the last two years. I’d rather just keep Yelich, considering he’s actually earned his money the last couple years.
  6. sveumrules
    The Brewers two highest payrolls in franchise history were the last two years. This is literally impossible to accomplish while being increasingly cheap.
  7. sveumrules
    The last few years? The Brewers 273-213 record (.562 W%) is the 6th best in MLB over the last three years. They won the division twice the last few years. Their record over the last six years (487-384 | .559 W%) is right there with the run from 1978-83 (518-400 | .564 W%) for the best multi year run in franchise history. That constitutes gaslighting? The three years before he bought the team they went 191-294 (.394 W%). The six years before he bought the team they went 406-564 (.418 W%). The twenty one years before he bought the team they went 1548-1783 (.465 W%).
  8. sveumrules
    Do they address the reasoning behind Garrett Mitchell being a born again prospect?
  9. sveumrules
    Thanks for the memories, Rowdy. Tied with JJ Hardy for highest postseason OPS in franchise history among 44 players with at least 10 PA.
  10. sveumrules
    Right, but now you’re just moving the goalposts again. First it was “real” money. Then you switched to “large”. Your original complaint was about slashing salary, which is objectively false. Of course the Brewers could spend more money, so could every team in MLB. The Brewers capacity to do so is much smaller though as thee literal smallest market in the league. Barring massive changes to MLB’s revenue structure, the Brewers are incredibly unlikely to ever run a “large” payroll.
  11. sveumrules
    Right, but they still traded for players making real money. They could have traded Wong for a package with no MLB salary commitments in return. Spotrac had the Brewers 2023 year end total salary higher than 2022. They didn't replace Renfroe directly (because they had a bunch of cheap rookie OF to try out), but they did end up reallocating his money elsewhere over the course of the season.
  12. sveumrules
    I'm not defending the club at all, I literally said we paid a steep price to acquire Bauers in an earlier post. I'm simply pointing out that is objectively impossible to run club record payrolls two years in a row while doing anything they can to slash salary and that they have traded for players making real money. Who are some players with a sufficiently large salary that you would like to see them trade for?
  13. sveumrules
    They traded for Jesse Winker and his $8.25M salary last year. In 2022 they traded for Hunter Renfroe and his $7.65M salary. The 2022 and 2023 year end payrolls were the highest in team history, literally impossible to accomplish while slashing salary.
  14. sveumrules
    Yeah, would be awesome if those 97 PAs with the Yankees AAA affiliate where he hit 359/485/897 (227 wRC+) with more walks than strikeouts was indicative of some kind of change in approach/swing/true talent level, but this seems like kind of a steep price to pay to try and find out,
  15. sveumrules
    They were similar last year, sure, but 2018-22 Rowdy at least put up 1533 PA of 104 wRC+. Bauers has 1398 PA of 83 wRC+ in his MLB career. Brewers must really like their lower level OF depth to deal all of Mendez, Avina and Sanchez over the last few days.
  16. sveumrules
    The options are agree on a one year deal, agree on a multi year deal, non tender or trade. I don’t think anyone wants a one year deal given Woody’s health situation. I don’t think anyone wants a non tender. So it comes down to multi year deal or trade. If a multi year deal can’t be reached, a trade for anything, even perceived pennies on the dollar is better than nothing.
  17. sveumrules
    Looks like Contreras finished 11th (highest vote 5th) and Devin finished 20th for NL MVP voting. Burnes finished 8th in NL CY with Bill Plunkett the OC Register putting him 2nd on his ballot.
  18. sveumrules
    Yeah. 68 ERA- in 2021, but with a 96 FIP-. Regressed to an 89 ERA- and 106 FIP- in 2022. Bottomed out at 125 ERA- and 114 FIP- in 2023. He is only one data point of many, but serves as a pretty good example to illustrate how FIP does a better job of predicting ERA than ERA does. Out of 137 pitchers with at least 250 IP since 2021 he has actually been pretty good at limiting HRs (85 HR9+ | 36th) and decent at limiting walks (85 BB9+ | 64th), but abhorrent when it comes to striking guys out (74 K%+ | 128th).
  19. sveumrules
    Definitely being developed as a starter, but still questions about if he'll ultimately be able to stick in that role. Only ended up at 71.1 IP over his 20 GS in 2023, which all things considered probably went about as good as it possibly could have from a health standpoint with Jacob taking the ball pretty much every six days until getting shut down after his final dominant start with Biloxi mid-August. Would imagine the plan for 2024 is to start him back in the rotation at Biloxi and try to build those innings up over 100 this year with maybe some time in Milwaukee later in the season out of the rotation or pen depending on how everything shakes out with his innings totals and the Brewers level of competitiveness.
  20. sveumrules
    It's just one of those spots where there aren't enough top end guys, so once you get past a certain point there is a lot of sameness. Here is the list of guys who got at least 400 PA at 1B and posted a wRC+ over 110 in the process... Freeman (730 PA | 162 wRC+), Lowe (724 PA | 114 wRC+), Olson (720 PA | 160 wRC+), Walker (642 PA | 120 wRC+), Alonso (618 PA | 124 wRC+), Goldy (599 PA | 122 wRC+), Vlad (525 PA | 115 wRC+), Yandy (521 PA | 163 wRC+), Casas (482 PA | 126 wRC+), Noda (460 PA | 129 wRC+) and Wade Jr. (437 PA | 121 wRC+). Eleven guys. DH was even more barren with only six met the 400 PA | 110 wRC+ bench marks...Ozuna (582 PA | 143 wRC+), Ohtani (528 PA | 173 wRC+), JDM (472 PA | 136 wRC+), Soler (443 PA | 121 wRC+), Cutch (434 PA | 112 wRC+) and Turner (424 PA | 116 wRC+). That's essentially 17 good options for sixty 1B/DH spots. There just isn't anywhere near enough supply to meet the demand.
  21. sveumrules
    Dunn has one good year in AA. Moore’s one good year was as a sophomore at Arkansas. Hendry’s one good year was in the Complex leagues. All these guys are low probability dice rolls, but Dunn has had the most success at the highest level out of the three, so right now he’s got the most favorable outlook. Hendry has plate discipline and time on his side, but he’s a corner OF only prospect so he’s gonna need to run a 120 wRC+ to ever have any value. That’s a high bar to clear for someone who hasn’t shown much contact or power in over 700 PAs off the complex. Moore doesn’t look to have the defensive chops to play SS everyday in MLB, so his ceiling is likely a utility guy. After posting a 94 wRC+ in Wisco this summer he should probably start 2024 back at A+ for the Phils affiliate. Brewers get the safer bet (whose power potential also gives him the highest ceiling), while the Phils bet on their development team being able to turn one or both of Mendez/Moore into a Dunn calibre prospect before their 40 Man timelines are up.
  22. sveumrules
    While I like the idea of Yelich at 1B, especially his speed at what is typically a plodder spot, I think there are a couple obstacles. In the immediate term, Tyler Black. I’d guess they’ll try him at 3B out of the gate to see how he fares at MLB, with 1B as the fallback plan. Wilken could be in this corner IF mix soon too depending how next year goes. In more of a general sense, Yelich’s back. Theoretically it seems like 1B would require more bending over (for grounders) and more hitting the deck (diving for shots down the line or in the hole), which could increase the chances for aggravation. Hoskins would be a great fit, but I think his market will be too strong for the Brewers to be a serious contender. Could see Belt on a one year deal as the primary DH vs RHP, start once a week at 1B kind of guy.
  23. sveumrules
    Miller’s highest ISO in the minors was .192 and he played over 1,000 innings at shortstop on his way up. 7.6 BB% and 16.3 K% for his MiLB career. Dunn bats in the other box, and has shown more power, but less defensive acumen. 15.7 BB% and 28.1 K% for his MiLB career. Both play IF, but that’s about it for similarities.
  24. sveumrules
    He was 25 in AA this past season. He’ll be spending his age 26 season in AAA and maybe even MLB at some point depending how things go. Moore and Mendez have time on their side, but at this point they’re dreaming of achieving the kind of mediocrity that Dunn has put up to find himself on a 40 Man roster. Many were up in arms when the Brewers gave total unknown Blake Perkins (who spent most of his age 25 season at AA) a 40 Man spot around this time last year. He ended up chipping in 1.2 WAR as the 5th OF.
  25. sveumrules
    Looking at raw HR totals is misleading because of his correspondingly low PA totals. Power actually showed up in 2022. Posted a .182 ISO at A+ and a .162 ISO at AA in 2021. That jumped to a .242 ISO at AA in 2022 with 77 PA of 333/439/576 (173 wRC+). Showed it was no small sample fluke with 505 PA of .235 ISO in 2023 on an overall line of 271/396/506 (148 wRC+).
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