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NL EAST Atlanta Braves (+49 Wins, 3rd) 16: 68 (68) 0 17: 72 (72) 0 18: 73 (90) +17 19: 84 (97) +13 21: 88 (88) 0 22: 93 (101) +8 23: 93 (104) +11 Philadelphia Phillies (+7 Wins, 12th) 16: 64 (71) +7 17: 72 (66) -6 18: 77 (80) +3 19: 85 (81) -4 21: 80 (82) +2 22: 87 (87) 0 23: 85 (90) +5 Miami Marlins (-21 Wins, 23rd) 16: 81 (79) -2 17: 79 (77) -2 18: 64 (63) -1 19: 60 (57) -3 21: 71 (67) -4 22: 82 (69) -13 23: 80 (84) +4 Washinton Nationals (-25 Wins, 24th) 16: 90 (95) +5 17: 92 (97) +5 18: 92 (82) -10 19: 91 (93) +2 21: 81 (65) -16 22: 70 (55) -15 23: 67 (71) +4 New York Mets (-44 Wins, 27th) 16: 92 (87) -5 17: 87 (70) -17 18: 84 (77) -7 19: 84 (86) +2 21: 92 (77) -15 22: 88 (101) +13 23: 90 (75) -15 NOTES: Braves have three of only nine seasons in the entire sample with projected wins equals actual wins, so their +49 wins in only 4 seasons is all the more impressive. Their defense (+89 DRS, 10th) and bullpen (+19.78 WPA, 12th) have both been contributors, but their hitters +51.22 WPA (2nd) is probably the main driver. Numbers in parentheses are net wins, but in terms of deviation from zero the Phillies and Marlins were two of the most accurately projected teams at 27 and 29, or about 4 wins of deviation per season. LOLMets at the end. If their outlier 2022 didn't save them they'd be fighting with the Angels for last. Should also be noted they came in at -142 DRS and -0.54 bullpen WPA, both 25th.

AL WEST Houston Astros (+41 Wins, 5th) 16: 88 (84) -4 17: 90 (101) +11 18: 100 (103) +3 19: 98 (107) +9 21: 89 (95) +6 22: 91 (106) +15 23: 89 (90) +1 Seattle Mariners (+36 Wins, 6th) 16: 82 (86) +4 17: 82 (78) -4 18: 78 (89) +11 19: 75 (68) -7 21: 74 (90) +16 22: 80 (90) +10 23: 82 (88) +6 Texas Rangers (EVEN MONEY, 15th) 16: 79 (95) +16 17: 82 (78) -4 18: 77 (67) -10 19: 71 (78) +7 21: 70 (60) -10 22: 75 (68) -7 23: 82 (90) +8 Oakland Athletics (-7 Wins, 18th) 16: 79 (69) -10 17: 77 (75) -2 18: 78 (97) +19 19: 85 (97) +12 21: 84 (86) +2 22: 69 (60) -9 23: 69 (50) -19 Los Angeles Angels (-52 Wins, 30th) 16: 81 (74) -7 17: 83 (80) -3 18: 83 (80) -3 19: 82 (72) -10 21: 85 (77) -8 22: 83 (73) -10 23: 84 (73) -11 NOTES: The Astros are almost as good as beating the projections as they are at beating a trash can, but all jokes aside they also put up +345 DRS (1st) and +29.77 bullpen WPA (7th) so they fit the mold. The Mariners are the first big projection beaters to break the fielding/relief mold with a decent +21.27 bullpen WPA (11th) but -49 DRS (19th), The Angels couldn't be anymore hilarious. Projected between 81 and 85 wins every single year and then underperform those middling projections seven of seven years while running a Top 6 to 8 OD payroll every year.

AL CENTRAL Cleveland Guardians (+12 Wins, 9th) 16: 88 (94) +6 17: 94 (102) +8 18: 96 (91) -5 19: 97 (93) -4 21: 82 (80) -2 22: 77 (92) +15 23: 82 (76) -6 Minnesota Twins (-13 Wins, 21st) 16: 78 (59) -19 17: 75 (85) +10 18: 83 (78) -5 19: 85 (101) +16 21: 88 (73) -15 22: 82 (78) -4 23: 83 (87) +4 Chicago White Sox (-25 Wins, 25th) 16: 81 (78) -3 17: 68 (67) -1 18: 65 (62) -3 19: 72 (72) 0 21: 86 (93) +7 22: 87 (81) -6 23: 80 (61) -19 Kansas City Royals (-47 Wins, 28th) 16: 78 (81) +3 17: 76 (80) +4 18: 71 (58) -13 19: 70 (59) -11 21: 78 (74) -4 22: 75 (65) -10 23: 72 (56) -16 Detroit Tigers (-50 Wins, 29th) 16: 81 (86) -5 17: 82 (64) -18 18: 70 (64) -6 19: 68 (47) -21 21: 72 (77) +5 22: 77 (66) -11 23: 72 (78) +6 NOTES: Looks like the ALC is thee worst division when it comes to underperforming their projections with only Cleveland at +196 DRS (4th) and +41.53 bullpen WPA (2nd) coming out on the positive end while KCR (-159 DRS, 26th | +1.41 bullpen WPA, 21st) and DET (-410 DRS, 30th and +3.84 bullpen WPA, 20th) being two of thee biggest duds in MLB. Royals have one of the most consistent projected win ranges coming in between 70 and 78 every year.

AL EAST Tampa Bay Rays (+43 Wins, 4th) 16: 81 (68) -13 17: 81 (80) -1 18: 76 (90) +14 19: 84 (96) +12 21: 83 (100) +17 22: 85 (86) +1 23: 86 (99) +13 New York Yankees (+20 Wins, 7th) 16: 82 (84) +2 17: 79 (91) +12 18: 94 (100) +6 19: 100 (103) +3 21: 95 (92) -3 22: 91 (99) +8 23: 90 (82) -8 Boston Red Sox (+5 Wins, 13th) 16: 89 (93) +4 17: 91 (93) +2 18: 93 (108) +15 19: 96 (84) -12 21: 85 (92) +7 22: 86 (78) -8 23: 81 (78) -3 Baltimore Orioles (+2 Wins, 14th) 16: 78 (89) +11 17: 80 (75) -5 18: 76 (47) -29 19: 61 (54) -7 21: 65 (52) -13 22: 63 (83) +20 23: 76 (101) +25 Toronto Blue Jays (-20 Wins, 22nd) 16: 84 (89) +5 17: 86 (76) -10 18: 84 (73) -11 19: 76 (67) -9 21: 87 (91) +4 22: 92 (92) 0 23: 88 (89) +1 NOTES: Tampa Bay at +37.52 bullpen WPA (5th) and +181 DRS (8th) were the best in the division at beating their projections by a wide margin. Yankees bullpen was a little better (+40.24 WPA, 3rd) but their fielders weren't quite as good (+73 DRS, 14th). Orioles overall +2 is hardly indicative of their roller coaster ride with three of only seven total seasons of plus or minus 20 wins in the entire sample. Last two years at +45 wins they are +69 DRS and +10.76 bullpen WPA, both 7th in MLB. From 2017-21 when they were -54 wins vs the projections they came in at -159 DRS and -10.51 bullpen WPA, both 29th. Blue Jays rank did pretty well in both defense (+77 DRS, 13th) and bullpen (+27.96 WPA, 9th) but weren't able to leverage that into beating their projections.

I hate to start a project like this with a predetermined idea coloring the investigation, but my premise with a bias towards watching the Brewers more than any other team, is that defense and bullpen performance (which are among the most difficult to project) go a long way toward explaining over or under performance relative to the projections. Here are how some of the biggest over and under achievers performed in those areas over the 2016-23 time frame... THE GOOD MIL (+58 Wins) +242 DRS (4th) | +41.55 bWPA (1st) LAD (+50 Wins) +326 DRS (2nd) | +39.88 bWPA (4th) ATL (+49 Wins) +89 DRS (10th) | +19.78 bWPA (12th) TBR (+43 Wins) +181 DRS (8th) | +37.52 bWPA (5th) HOU (+41 Wins) +345 DRS (1st) | +29.77 bWPA (7th) NYY (+20 Wins) +73 DRS (14th) | +40.24 bWPA (3rd) COL (+18 Wins) +165 DRS (9th) | +4.51 bWPA (19th) CLE (+12 Wins) +196 DRS (5th) | +41.53 bWPA (2nd) THE UGLY LAA (-52 Wins) -9 DRS (17th) | -4.68 bWPA (27th) DET (-50 Wins) -410 DRS (30th) | +3.84 bWPA (20th) KCR (-47 Wins) -159 DRS (26th) | +1.41 bWPA (21st) NYM (-44 Wins) -142 DRS (25th) | -0.53 bWPA (25th) CHW (-25 Wins) -264 DRS (29th) | -0.29 bWPA (24th) WAS (-25 Wins) -118 DRS (24th) | -7.96 bWPA (28th) MIA (-21 Wins) +38 DRS (15th) | -11.59 bWPA (30th) THE OUTLIERS TOR (-20 Wins) +77 DRS (13th) | +27.96 bWPA (9th) SEA (+36 Wins) -49 DRS (19th) | +21.27 bWPA (11th) CHC (-5 Wins) +289 DRS (3rd) | +29.29 bWPA (9th) I'm not saying that defense and bullpen performance are the only thing when it comes to beating (or getting beat by) the projections, but I think there is enough signal in the noise to say that they play a pretty significant role in the whole process. Before I get into the divisional breakdowns, here is the overall split of the individual team seasons grouped by variation from zero in terms of projected vs actual wins... (0): 9 (+/-1): 12 (+/-2): 13 (+/-3): 14 (+/-4): 24 (+/-5): 16 (+/-6): 15 (+/-7): 13 (+/-8): 14 (+/-9): 8 (+/-10): 12 (+/-11): 8 (+/-12): 9 (+/-13): 8 (+/-14): 2 (+/-15): 7 (+/-16): 11 (+/-17 to 19): 8 (+/-20 or more): 7 Overall, if I'm mathing this right, I get an average margin of error about 8 wins per season in either direction. Here are the individual divisional breakdowns...

Saw that the Brewers ZiPS projections are getting released over at FanGraphs later today, and since there was neither Bucks nor Badgers nor Golden Eagles games this evening it seemed like as good a time as any to dig into how the Brewers have done compared to the projections during the Stearns, and now Arnold era. Spoiler alert, it's pretty pretty good. Luckily, FanGraphs historical playoff odds (which use a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS) go back to the 2016, so I rounded off every team's projected preseason win total from there and then compared that to their actual win total for that season. 30 teams times seven full seasons equals 210 individual seasons in the sample. I will break off each division into their own separate post below to space out the details a little bit, but first I'll lay out some of the information I found most interesting putting this all together....

Three things projections struggle the most with are defense and relief pitching (because they are more volatile year to year), and young players (because they have a limited MLB track record to project from). A big reason the Brewers have consistently beat their projections over the last seven years is they have regularly fielded top end defenses (+249 DRS from 2017-23, 3rd), and bullpens at 36.0 rWAR (5th) and +35.85 WPA (2nd) over that same stretch. This year they’ll be relying on a number of young players too which will further muddy the waters. FanGraphs Playoff Odds uses a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS, here are their Brewers preseason projected win totals for every full season from 2017-23, with their actual win total that year in parentheses after… 2017: 70 (86) 2018: 80 (96) 2019: 81 (89) 2021: 83 (95) 2022; 90 (86) 2023: 86 (92) So five out of six seasons beating the projections by at least six wins with +54 cumulative wins over the projections during that run. The one year we didn’t beat the projections our bullpen collapsed, finishing 17th in WPA. I think it’s safe to say whatever internal projections the Brewers front office utilizes are a little more precise than the publicly available ones.

Chapman at 4/80 on FanGraphs was from their crowd sourcing. Ben Clemens had him at 5/120 in their Top 50 article. Combine that with the 6/150 MLBTR prediction and the range is pretty wild. Probably the largest of any FA this winter. If he would sign for 4/80 I could see the Brewers being interested given their run prevention mindset and the likelihood that average is probably the ceiling for Black and Wilken’s 3B defense. Problem is his glove has fallen off to the tune of +78 DRS and +48 OAA over his first 4,955 innings at 3B compared to +14 DRS and +5 OAA over his last 2,558 innings. His bat also cratered at 205/298/361 (84 wRC+) from May 1st onward last year, though his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit percent were all elite on his StatCast page.

Think that’s a pretty safe assumption at this point. Have to imagine the already started only going to get worse RSN situation would be a mitigating factor to any potential sale discussions since it introduces quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to projecting future revenues.

This FanGraphs link does a really good job breaking down the unconventional means by which Ramirez has gone about racking up the singles. Lots of cool stuff in there, but one interesting note is he has been among the best pinch hitters in MLB for his career. Since 2019 there are 88 players with at least 50 PH PAs with Harold coming in at .393 BA (2nd) and 157 wRC+ (7th). Another interesting name at the top of the leaderboard was Tyrone Taylor at .357 BA (4th) and 205 wRC+ (2nd). But the 2019-23 min 50 PAs Pinch Hit King has been currently unsigned old friend Ji Man Choi at .421 BA and 224 wRC+.

Harold Ramirez’s own career is a pretty good example of how certain attributes are stickier year to year, while others are prone to much more variance. From 2019-21, he had a 4.0 BB%, 18.2 K% and .134 ISO over 818 PAs. From 2022-23 he had a 4.7 BB%, 17.6 K% and .126 ISO over 869 PAs. Pretty close across the board. Big difference came in his BABIP. 2019-21 was only .315, which shook out to a .271 batting average and 92 wRC+. 2022-23 was up at .354, which shook out to a .306 batting average and 123 wRC+. Even over his two recent “good” years you can see the diminishing returns of his skill set. Among 201 players with at least 750 PAs from 2022-23… His .354 BABIP and .306 BA are both 5th, but with a 4.4 BB% (198th) and .126 ISO (167th), his 123 wRC+ only ranks 46th. Throw in -22.0 DEF (176th) and his 3.0 WAR ranks 125th of the 201 player sample.

His average is good, no doubt, but he doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for power either. His .130 isolated slugging is 23% below league average and lines up with guys like Andrew Benintendi (.128) and Whit Merrifield (.132). His value is pretty much entirely dependent on hitting singles. He also has pretty wide platoon splits at 275/314/404 (99 wRC+) in 1,103 PAs vs RHP compared to 323/363/453 (129 wRC+) in 470 PAs vs LHP. So given no defensive value and middling performance vs RHP, his ideal usage would probably be as a DH only vs LHP.

No thanks. Can't field (-13 DRS | -11 OAA in the OF and -6 DRS | -4 OAA in only 278 innings at 1B) and never walks (4.4 BB% ranks 199th of 202 batters with at least 1,500 PA from 2019-22). His profile is entirely dependent on his batted ball results.

Mets signing Sean Manaea for 2/28. Joins Severino (1/13), Bader (1/10,5), Jorge Lopez (1/2), Joey Wendle (1/2), Michael Tonkin (1/1) and Austin Adams (1/800K) among Stearns MLB free agent acquisitions so far. Also looks like former Brewers farmhands Victor Castaneda, Cam Robinson and Cooper Hummel have landed minor league deals from the Mets.

Pretty nuts deal. FG had 3/45 and MLBTR was at 4/80 for their predictions. Teoscar has some pop (99 HR since 2020 ranks 17th), but pretty crazy L/R splits at 161 wRC+ vs LHP compared to a 112 wRC+ vs RHP. Only a 105 wRC+ overall last year, but still was making loud contact with barrel and hard hit rates in the top 10-12% of MLB. Have to imagine under the Dodgers tutelage he gets back up around the 133 wRC+ he posted from 2020-22.

Of course it wouldn’t cripple the franchise, but $14M is almost 12% of a $120M payroll. If Hoskins wasn’t able to recapture his past level of performance, that would be a waste of finite resources which would limit the ability to make other moves, yes. The most recent multi year big money drains for the Brewers were Braun (4.8 WAR for $75M from 2017-20), Yelich (4.2 WAR for $48M from 2020-22) and Cain (1.0 WAR for $35M from 2021-22). That combined $158M represented about 28.7% of the Brewers $550M in OD Payroll from 2017-22. The combined 10.0 WAR they got for that investment represented about 4.44% of the Brewers 225 combined position player and pitcher WAR from 2017-22.

As the smallest market in Capitalist MLB, the Brewers ability to eat financial mistakes is considerably smaller than other teams. One bad long term FA contract could hinder the Brewers ability to compete for multiple seasons. I’d imagine both the 2021 and 2022 Brewers could have been better off if they didn’t have LoCain making $35M for 1.0 WAR. Free Agency is the least efficient use of funds in MLB, the Brewers need to maximize efficiency given their geographic and economic realities.

Wiemer, maybe. Bauers, unlikely. The better answers to that question would be Jackson Chourio and Tyler Black, who are both pretty exciting and difficult to overlook. Last year Adrian and Tyrone combined for 2.2 WAR, this year they project for 1.5 WAR. That kind of production shouldn’t be difficult to replace. Just last year we got 2.5 combined WAR from unheralded/maligned pick ups Rea and Perkins at the same positions.

Haase was also at 105 wRC+ over 732 PA from 2021-22. Obviously they both stunk last year, but if one of them can bounce back near their past performance at the plate, plus get the patented Brewers defensive boost behind it, they should have no problem replacing Caratini’s 1.1 WAR from last year.

TJ is pretty routine at this point, but TJ after a failed PRP and then two whole missed seasons adds some more uncertainty into the mix. Hitting that rehab timeline with no further setbacks would be a best case scenario, sure, but that’s rarely how pitching development timelines play out. That said, I agree the Phillies are unlikely to deal Painter because the ceiling is so high. They are also better positioned to gamble on it than the Brewers are. If he goes Sixto Sanchez on them, oh well, they can buy another FA pitcher. If he did the same for us, we just traded away our two best reload assets for nothing and set back the rebuild by howsoever many years. That’s why I think if the Brewers were to move both Burnes/Williams in one trade they would target a headliner with less risk in their profile and on a faster timeline than Painter. Casuals will be peeved no matter what if we deal Corbin/Devin, but if we deal them for a pitcher who is hurt and won’t even pitch this year…oh man, Brewers internet might explode and 69% of the ticket reps would probably quit.

I wouldn’t want any part of Castellanos, even if the Phils were kicking in cash. If you’re dealing Burnes/Devin, just go for maximum future value and don’t clog up the books with three years of dead money on a player who’s posted a 102 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR over his last 1,229 PA since turning 30. Painter has tremendous upside, but he missed all of 2023 after his PRP injection from the spring didn’t take which necessitated TJ in July, which will pretty much wipe out his whole 2024. Missing two straight years is a pretty big hit to his value for me. Abel is their only other prospect of note even close to MLB, and I’d actually value him above Painter just because at least he threw 112 IP last year. Control isn’t good (65 BB in those 112 IP) and FG scouting report notes his fastball has suboptimal shape. Apparently he has good spin on his breakers, but inconsistent mechanics limit his ability to do so consistently. Maybe the Brewers would view him as a guy their dev staff could help to reach his ceiling, but if we’re dealing both of Corbin/Williams, I would hope for a little more certainty from the headliners in the deal. Miller is pretty much their next best guy and he was just drafted last year, which speaks to the dearth of depth in their system. This blurb from his FG report should probably give Brewers fans pause as well… ”The power potential here is exciting and gives Miller an everyday player’s ceiling, but after Kieboom, Keston Hiura, and the rocky history of other hitters whose hand paths work like this, readers should know there’s hit tool risk here.“

Has it though? In each of the last two seasons and three of the last four full seasons the Brewers have set new payroll records. Despite ranking 30th in market size, their spending is typically around ten spots higher with OD payroll ranks of 17th, 19th, 19th and 20th the last four full seasons. The last seven years (2017-23) they have a .555 W% compared to a .469 W% from 2012-16 and a .526 W% during the Braun/Fielder years from 2007-11. Mark A's Brewers peaked in OD payroll rank at 13th in 2012 at $89M, a season they finished 83-79. If the Brewers wanted to open 2023 at 13th in payroll they would have had needed to spend $182M, or about $63M than they did.

FanGraphs depth charts currently has the Phillies bullpen first in MLB. Jose Alvarado (74 IP | 3.03 ERA | 3.34 FIP | 1.7 WAR) has essentially the same projection as Devin Williams (66 IP | 3.09 ERA | 3.26 FIP | 1.4 WAR).

MLBTR reporting that Michael Brantley has joined fellow 2008 Huntsville Stars Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Angel Salome, Matt LaPorta and Lorenzo Cain in retirement. Among 57 players with at least 5,000 PAs from 2011-22, Brantley came in at... 5646 PA (22nd) | 10.6 K% (1st) | .300 AVG (5th) | 121 wRC+ (24th) | 29.7 WAR (29th) | 90.6 Contact% (1st) | 3.9% SwStr% (57th) The word elite gets thrown around a lot, but Brantley was a truly elite contact hitter for over a decade.

Rhys Hoskins fun fact, his 1.194 OPS at Miller Family Stadium is his 3rd best OPS in any ballpark, and first best among parks where he has at least 15 PA. Considering he is likely to have a number of suitors, and will also probably want an opt out after year one, maybe something little like that could help him choose Milwaukee among a sea of what are likely to be similar contract offers. Then again, maybe not. Mitch Garver signed with Seattle and he is 0-31 career at Safeco.