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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Couldn't agree on compensation, or Stearns just wanted a year off to refresh before jumping into the new gig.
  2. sveumrules
    Al The Thinking Man
  3. sveumrules
    All joking aside, from 2018 to 2022 the Brewers went 395-315, a .557 W%, 6th best in MLB. This year so far they are 80-63, a .559 W%, 6th best in MLB. I think we'll be fine.
  4. sveumrules
    Still kind of confused why Stearns was such a hot commodity to begin with. All he ever did was luck himself into three aces and two elite closers then never assembled an offense to score any runs around them. Couldn't even draft a single hitter as good as Ryan Braun.
  5. sveumrules
    First move will be acquiring (2024 NL Triple Crown Winner) Keston Hiura and installing him as the full time DH.
  6. sveumrules
    Pitching is a lot like real estate. Location, location, location. Out of 268 SP with at least 10 IP this year Wicks has a 74 Stuff+, which ranks 259th. His 105 Location+ puts him in the Top 30 to 40 SPs though. Looks like he mixes it up pretty well to keep hitters off balance too with five different pitches he throws at least 7% of the time and a plus change up (35% usage) as his out pitch.
  7. sveumrules
    The distribution is more important than the raw total. Only one inning over 20 pitches, and next to zero high stress pitches.
  8. sveumrules
    Brandon. Woodruff.
  9. sveumrules
    Brewers are scoring too many runs.
  10. sveumrules
    Are we pouring it on yet?!?!?
  11. sveumrules
    Adbert Alzolay to the 15 day DL with a forearm strain. Cubs will be without their closer for at least the next two weeks.
  12. sveumrules
    I provided objective information to support my position. What objective information supports yours?
  13. sveumrules
    NPDR (No Paragraphs Didn't Read)
  14. sveumrules
    gmLI (game Leverage Index) measures the leverage when a relief pitcher enters the game. Here are Brewers rankings since August 1st, along with their innings pitched... Devin (2.31 gmLI | 12.1 IP) Payamps (1.69 gmLI | 14.2 IP) Peguero (1.48 gmLI | 16.1 IP) Uribe (1.19 gmLI | 17.0 IP) Milner (1.09 gmLI | 14.2 IP) Megill (0.74 gmLI | 11.2 IP) Wilson (0.73 gmLI | 17.1 IP) Chafin (0.73 gmLI | 10.1 IP) Chafin is 8th in gmLI and 8th in IP since August 1st, which to me indicates he was likely acquired to be 8th on the bullpen depth chart. If not, he would have been used more often and in higher leverage spots.
  15. sveumrules
    Chafin was acquired to be 8th on the bullpen depth chart, not sure anyone ever thought he was the crown jewel of anything. I do recall many posters thinking SantanCanha were polished turds though.
  16. sveumrules
    PCA looked like a legit CF defender when I saw him in Wisco last summer. Had a 136 wRC+ and 24.0 K% at AA this year, but that scaled back to a 105 wRC+ and 29.7 K% at AAA.
  17. sveumrules
    BA’s last game was Aug 22. Since then Taylor is 9th on the team in PAs at 46. Bench players over that time are Rowdy (26 PA), Caratini (22 PA), Wiemer (12 PA), Miller (4 PA). BA (zero). CC has definitely locked in on a pretty consistent regular lineup since the trade deadline really. In 35 games since August 1st, games started breaks down as… Contreras (34) Turang (34) Adames (33) Monasterio (33) Santana (32) Yelich (32) Canha (31) Frelick (25) Taylor (18) Wiemer (13) Caratini (10) Rowdy (8) BA (5) The biggest factor in Anderson still being on the roster is the 14 position player minimum. From his (and Miller’s non-usage) it seems pretty clear they’d prefer a 15th pitcher.
  18. sveumrules
    Anderson’s OPS was at .766 over 210 PA thru May 31st. He then put up a .568 OPS over his next 124 PA before going on the IL and has followed that up with a .441 OPS in a scant 21 PA since returning. He stopped hitting and Monasterio took advantage of the opportunity.
  19. sveumrules
    2019 team was missing Yelich and needed to beat a superior Nats team on the road to even get into the NLDS, FanGraphs had them with 0.9% WS Odds before almost stealing that wild card game from the eventual Champs. Either way, even with this offense, we’ve been watching at worst something like the 6th/7th best team in the franchise’s 50+ year history. I’ve enjoyed the ride and look forward to the currently unknown details of exactly how it ends, even with the overwhelming likelihood that’s it’s just another 2023 NL Central Champs or 2023 Wild Card banner painted on the stadium wall.
  20. sveumrules
    Right, I addressed that twice. “one of the weakest offenses among playoff hopefuls” and “the odds are overwhelming that the Brewers offense will likely keep them out of the World Series”. For most of your life only two teams in each league made the playoffs to begin with, so that’s irrelevant to the current format. Last year the #6 seed, a team that won one more regular season than the Brewers, represented the NL in the WS. In 2021 the Braves had the 5th most wins in the NL as the #3 seed, in 2019 the Nationals were a #4 seed with the 3rd most wins in the NL. Recent history tells us the being something like the 4th best team in the league’s playoff field doesn’t preclude a club from bucking the odds that are stacked against them.
  21. sveumrules
    The current World Series Odds for NL teams at FanGraphs are... ATL (30.4%) LAD (12.2%) PHI (5.7%) MIL (4.3%) CHI (2.2%) ARI (1.2%) SFG (1.1%) MIA (0.8%) The combination of the Brewers having one of the weakest offenses among playoff hopefuls, but also one of the best run prevention units makes them something like the 4th best team in the NL at the moment in the eyes of the computers. On today's date in 2022 the Phillies had 4% World Series odds. On today's date in 2021 the Braves had 6.7% World Series odds. On today's date in 2019 the Nationals were at 5.6% playoff odds. The Dodgers were the NL World Series favorites on today's date in each of the last three full seasons (17.3% on 9/11/2019 and 20.0% on 9/11/2021 and 17.6% on 9/11/2022) and didn't make it out of the NL in any of those seasons. The computers think this year's Braves are currently much better positioned than the Dodgers were in any of those three most recent full seasons, so maybe they break the streak of NL underdogs this year. But yes, the odds are overwhelming that the Brewers offense will likely keep them out of the World Series, just like ten of the other playoff teams will fall short of the WS for some reason or another. Whichever way it shakes out, it beats being one of the 18 teams with 0.0% World Series odds after game 162.
  22. sveumrules
    Sure, they’ve lost some games recently, but even after today only five teams in MLB have fewer bullpen losses than the Brewers. Their +7.76 Win Probability Added was tops in MLB entering today. Of course Williams (+3.15 WPA) is the head of the dragon, but Payamps (+3.03), Wilson (+1.20), Milner (+1.16), Peguero (+0.96), Uribe (+0.63) and Megill (+0.26) have all made positive contributions out of the pen. Thats seven guys the Brewers either developed as prospects (Williams, Uribe) or from nondescript-ness (Payamps, Wilson, Milner, Peguero, Megill) into positive contributors to what has been one of MLBs top bullpens all season long. Rea also kept us in some games as an unheralded pickup and they even eked out a half dozen quality starts from a washed Teheran. Even a vet like Miley re-discovered his success here to begin with and is putting up another quality season in his return.
  23. sveumrules
    QUAY DAY
  24. sveumrules
    The pitching has benefited greatly - 3.94 ERA vs 4.32 FIP - due to the Brewers defense, +50 DRS (2nd). Those “terrible” hitters have been closer to average for most of the season while providing elite glove work. It’s a symbiotic relationship.
  25. sveumrules
    Because the season as a whole numbers are dragged down by a bunch of players who are no longer receiving plate appearances. Since June 16, so almost three months now, the Brewers have been running a 94 wRC+ while going 45-29 over that stretch. No great shakes, but also a large improvement over the 78 wRC+ they posted from 0420 to 0615 after the 14-5 start (where they posted a 102 wRC+).
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