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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    McMahon is projected for something like a defense heavy 11 WAR over the next four seasons with $56M owed over that time, so I’d say he has slightly positive trade value. Problem is he’s got a career best 101 wRC+ so far this year. Coming into the year he had an 89 wRC+ in 2,151 career PAs. Teams typically want more offense than that out of 3B no matter how good the glove is. About that glove. Coors also inflates the defensive metrics of good infielders because the Rockies target ground ball pitchers and Coors has more balls in play that any other stadium. McMahon is at something like +15 DRS | +10 OAA per full season since 2020. If teams think he is more of a +5-10 fielder than a +10-15 fielder that shaves two to four wins of that 11 WAR four year projection too.
  2. sveumrules
    Nick Merkel piggy backs four scoreless IP with 1 H | 0 BB | 5 K for the TRats.
  3. sveumrules
    Moore definitely has the edge as far as age relative to league, but average age is 1.5 years older between the Southern & Midwest leagues and Zamora missed some time as a 2020 draftee and then with injury after only 24 G last year so that eats into some of the raw age difference. I guess for me if two guys are around the same FV tier, and neither is an offensive juggernaut, give me the AA SS over the A+ 2B.
  4. sveumrules
    Winker still had a 108 wRC+ in 2022, they aren’t projecting him back to the 140 plus wRC+ marks he posted from 2020-21. As for the service time and salary, the front office appears to care otherwise there is no other reason for him to still be on the roster. At this point it is what it is, I’ll hope they make a move before the deadline while understanding the reasoning behind why they likely won’t.
  5. sveumrules
    The one guy on the list I’m not seeing it for is Robert Moore. Not incredibly young for his level (-1.2 years), bad SB vs CS (14 to 10), only a 105 wRC+. Probably more of a 2B than SS. Guess the plate discipline is okay at 10.3 BB% to 16.8 K%? I had Zamora over him because even with his struggles he’s still more viable at SS, and also performing better (113 wRC+, 13 SB vs 3 CS) at a higher level. Also had Dylan O’Rae and Filippo Di Turi over Moore at the end of the list because even with their limitations and higher volatility as guys still in complex ball there is at least a little more to dream on there.
  6. sveumrules
    “What?!?!?! Only #18 on the bee eff dot com Top 20?!?!? I’ll show those internet message board posters a thing or two” -Luke Adams, probably
  7. sveumrules
    You are conflating external evaluations with fan opinion. Of course fans were upset to lose Kelly, he is a talented arm with potential they'd been following for years through the minors. But there is a big difference between being a relief prospect who gets traded because his 40 man deadline is coming up and the team doesn't think he is worth the spot yet (Kelly's situation) and a CF prospect who has been ranked among the very best prospects in the game (Chourio's situation).
  8. sveumrules
    Renfroe is getting paid 12 million (through arbitration, not as a free agent) because he has put up 2.4 WAR and 2.7 WAR the last two full seasons. That's the type of production the Angels were hoping to trade for. Joc Pederson got 19 million on the QO because he posted a 145 OPS+ last year. The Giants were paying for something hopefully closer to that than 114 OPS+ he has delivered so far this year. Why didn't you mention Kevin Kiermaier (2.9 WAR for $9M) or Jeimer Candelario (2.9 WAR for $5M) on the other end of the spectrum who both actually signed one year FA deals?
  9. sveumrules
    No, just old fashioned ones. 5.080 service time and $8.25M salary. If you consider projections advanced stats, Winker is projected between 105-112 wRC+ rest of season vs a 98 wRC+ projection on Hiura's page. Urias has a 60 wRC+ in Nashville currently to go along with projections between 95-103 wRC+.
  10. sveumrules
    DSL Brewers 1 couldn't get it done though falling 3-2 to the Braves. Yannic Walther (1-2, 2B, 2xBB) and Luiyin Alastre (1-2, HR, BB) had the box highlights on offense while Eric Prado went 4 IP | 1 ER | 2 H | 1 BB | 2 K to raise his season ERA to 1.04 while Jose Meneses followed with 3 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 4 BB | 3 K to drop his season ERA to 1.82.
  11. sveumrules
    DSL Brewers 2 win 7-2 over the Guardians with Filippo Di Turi (2-4, 2B, 3B), Demetrio Nadal (1-2, HR, BB, SB, SF) and Freider Rojas (1-1, 2xBB) leading the offense. Best outing of the year for Melvin Hernandez at 5 IP | 0 ER | 4 H | 1 BB | 6 K.
  12. sveumrules
    This is pretty much where I'm at. My only real hope for the season is for Love to make it through mostly unscathed. Beyond that I'm just excited to see something "new", whatever that may be,
  13. sveumrules
    Offense has been coming around a little lately... First 19 Games (14-5): 103 wRC+ Next 49 Games (20-29): 79 wRC+ Last 29 Games (20-9): 92 wRC+ That 92 wRC+ doesn't include today's game, but it does go to show with even something resembling an average offense like we had to start the year and have been getting closer to approximating over the last month of so this is a very dangerous team.
  14. sveumrules
    They're already on a pretty absurd run, 20-9 since the six game losing streak middle of June. I guess it could have maybe been a game or two more absurd-er, sure, but it's the most wins in MLB over that stretch already.
  15. sveumrules
    Yeah, but they'd be 11-0 in their last ten with Hiura instead of Winker.
  16. sveumrules
    Brewers are now 20-9 (best record in MLB) since that six game losing streak in the middle of June.
  17. sveumrules
    I don’t think their identity this year is that far off from other Brewers teams during the competitive Stearns era… Starting Pitchers 2017-22: 75.4 rWAR (5th) 2023: 7.6 rWAR (12th) Bullpen 2017-22: +24.12 WPA (6th) 2023: +6.68 WPA (1st) Defense 2017-22: +189 DRS (4th) 2023: +31 DRS (3rd) Position Players 2017-22: 101 wRC+ (14th) 2023: 88 wRC+ (25th) Defense right where it normally is, bullpen even more dominant than usual, SP down a bit but still viable even with Woodruff, Peralta and Lauer all hurt or underperforming. Obviously the offense has stunk it up, but the good news is it hasn’t cost us 1st place yet. Context free batting runs has it costing them about five wins (-53.9), while WPA thinks it’s more like a couple two tree (-2.69).
  18. sveumrules
    2021 Starters Burnes (6.3 rWAR) Woodruff (6.3 rWAR) Peralta (4.5 rWAR) Lauer (2.8 rWAR) Houser (2.5 rWAR) 2022 Starters Burnes (5.3 rWAR) Woodruff (3.9 rWAR) Peralta (2.0 rWAR) Lauer (2.6 rWAR) Houser (-0.4 rWAR) It truly was a once in a generation starting pitching staff, because they dropped off from 22.4 rWAR in 2021 down to 13.4 rWAR in 2022. Those nine lost wins were a much bigger blow to the Brewers playoff hopes than trading Hader, who had been blowing up for two months before the deadline and didn’t find it again for another month after.
  19. sveumrules
    Looks like @Jim French Stepstool and @Playing Catch joined you putting him at the end of the top ten and there were a couple elevens too. The plate discipline (63 BB vs 71 K in 322 career PA) and wheels (33 SB vs 8 CS career) are shades of Tyler Black in a larger body. Obviously still young for his league and the 142 wRC+ is excellent, but the thing holding him back for me personally are the inconsistent batted ball results this year. I ended up putting him at #18, but I’ve got everyone from #12 onward in pretty much the same tier so I can see the case for having him higher.
  20. sveumrules
    Yujanyer Herrera with his best outing of the year too at 5 IP | 0 ER | 2 H | 2 BB | 7 K.
  21. sveumrules
    So Tiers Something Like This... 01 Jackson Chourio Score: 835 02 Jeferson Quero Score: 773 03 Jacob Misiorowski Score: 744 04 Sal Frelick Score: 706 05 Tyler Black Score: 677 06 Robert Gasser Score: 526 07 Brock Wilken Score: 497 08 Abner Uribe Score: 478 09 Carlos F Rodriguez Score: 453 10 Luis Lara Score: 422 11 Eric Brown Jr Score: 391 12 Cooper Pratt Score: 360 13 Josh Knoth Score: 350 14 Eric Bitonti Score: 200 15 Mike Boeve Score: 194 16 Robert Moore Score: 173 17 Daniel Guilarte Score: 153 18 Luke Adams Score: 134 19 Justin Jarvis Score: 132 20 Yophery Rodriguez Score: 113
  22. sveumrules
    Good a place as any to note that wRC+ for minor leaguers is only league adjusted and not park adjusted, from my understanding.
  23. sveumrules
    Yeah, still only at a 106 wRC+ in 97 PAs post-injury versus a 155 wRC+ in his 134 PAs pre-injury.
  24. sveumrules
    Jackson ChourioJacob MisiorowskiJeferson QueroTyler BlackSal FrelickRobert GasserCarlos F RodriguezAbner UribeLuis LaraBrock WilkenEric Brown JrDaniel GuilarteYophery RodriguezJosh KnothJustin JarvisLogan HendersonFreddy ZamoraLuke AdamsDylan O'RaeFilippo Di Turi
  25. sveumrules
    2017-19 (Jesus/Thames era) Brewers 1B posted a 123 wRC+ (8th) and 9.4 WAR (7th).
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