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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Santana is about $2.4M remaining, Mets picked up his salary minus the min but Brewers are on the hook for Canha’s $2M buyout, Chafin is another $2.5M at about $1.8M left in salary plus a 725K buyout. Sending out Urias saved about $1.6M.
  2. sveumrules
    6.4 on BRef, 4.4 on FanGraphs for 2021-22. Looks like the main difference is defense, BR has him at +13 fielding/position adjustment for those two years versus -5.9 at FG, mostly driven by OAA hating his innings at SS (-11).
  3. sveumrules
    Think that’s definitely part of it. Change of scenery for Luis, get a talented arm back, offset some of the salary they acquired.
  4. sveumrules
    Except their level of performance has been changing, rising and falling throughout the season… First 19 games (14-5): 103 wRC+ Next 49 games (20-29) 79 wRC+ Last 39 games (23-16) 92 wRC+ The arrow has been pointing up since they bottomed out after what was a perfectly cromulent start to the season. How will the offense fare over the final 55 games? I don’t know. If they revert to hitting around a 79 wRC+, they’re cooked. If they revert to hitting around a 103 wRC+, that would help considerably. If they stick around the 92 wRC+ they’ve been posting the last six weeks, it’ll probably be a dog fight down to the wire.
  5. sveumrules
    Briceno single + O’Rae walk + Boeve single + Wilken single = 7-6 walk off win for the ACL Crew.
  6. sveumrules
    True. But if those players were made available for negotiation (believe Arenado would only waive his NTC for LAD), the Brewers weren’t the only team unwilling to meet the ask.
  7. sveumrules
    Wyatt Langford bomb ties it up for ACL Texas top of nine. Miguel Briceno, Dylan O’Rae and Mike Boeve due up for the hopeful walk off with Wilken, Baez and Yeison Perez waiting in the wings.
  8. sveumrules
    ACL Brewers up 6-5 heading into top of nine. Gerson Calzadilla on to try to close it down after Anfernny Reyes threw 3.1 IP with 1 H | 7 K.
  9. sveumrules
    There’s no need for hypotheticals. Kiké Hernandez, Amed Rosario, Carlos Santana, Nicky Lopez, CJ Cron, Randall Grichuk, Mark Canha, Jeimer Candelario AJ Pollock and Mark Matthias, that is the reality we are dealing with to this point.
  10. sveumrules
    How many better position players have been traded so far? There is no Soto on the market this year.
  11. sveumrules
    FanGraphs currently has the Braves at 25% World Series Odds compared to 3% for the Brewers. No combination of deadline moves could gain the Brewers 5% in WS odds, much less 22%.
  12. sveumrules
    The Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB since 2018, imagine what they could do if they only tried.
  13. sveumrules
    Because the Rays are the best run small market in baseball, instead of only 2nd or 3rd best like the Brewers. If the Cubs were actually playing chess to our checkers (they aren’t) and have a $65M edge on payroll (they do) they wouldn’t be looking up at us in the standings again (they are).
  14. sveumrules
    Wins and payroll are “analytics” now? I thought that was about as old school as it gets. The Brewers have gotten league worst production at 1B/DH so far this year and have made two moves in an attempt to upgrade production at those spots. Sorry they didn’t trade for your preferred dice roll.
  15. sveumrules
    If the Cubs are playing chess why are they looking up at us in the standings (again) despite a $65M edge in OD payroll?
  16. sveumrules
    CC in 2008 = Adames in 2021 Yelich in 2018 >> Greinke in 2012 Which Melvin moves are you pining for? The Suppan, Lohse, Garza signings?
  17. sveumrules
    Gallardo was really only a “needle mover” in three seasons, 2007 (3.41 FIP), 2010 (3.02 FIP) and 2011 (3.59 FIP). Civale is a perfectly cromulent SP, but not a guy you want fronting your rotation or even starting game 2 of a playoff series unless you have no better options.
  18. sveumrules
    Civale has a 55 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 107 xFIP- | 82.7 LOB% over 77 IP this year versus a 97 ERA- | 98 FIP- | 96 xFIP- | 72.3 LOB% over 353 IP prior to this year. His peripherals have gone from 95 K%+ | 70 BB%+ | 107 HR9+ entering the season, to 82 K%+ | 85 BB%+ | 48 HR9+ this year so pretty much the entirety of his shiny ERA is coming from an outlier HR rate and LOB% compared to his career norms. I’d guess his ERA during his TBR tenure will end up closer to his career 4.05 FIP than it will his current 2.34 ERA.
  19. sveumrules
    Manzardo was an elite bat up through AA, but has really underwhelmed at AAA this year with a 93 wRC+ so far. He's down 50 points of ISO and 65 points of BABIP from AA last year. He was off to an okay start (115 wRC+ over 198 PA in May/June), then fell off to a 58 wRC+ over 116 PA in June/July before hitting the IL a few weeks ago with a sore shoulder. Injury was likely affecting him, but the scouting reports are for for hit over power, so he's going to need to really hit for average and walk at a nice clip to get up to that 120 or so wRC+ needed to be a plus 1B in MLB. Rays also have Yandy and Raley in house for some time yet, with last year's first round pick 1B Xavier Isaac putting up a 141 wRC+ as a 19 year old in A ball so they dealt from a position of strength.
  20. sveumrules
    Chourio is a consensus Top 5 prospect as a teenager on fire in AA. Frelick is a nice prospect no doubt (peak pre-season rank of #30) but he is at least one FV grade if not two behind Chourio, mostly on account of middling power projection and already being four years older. They aren’t an either/or comparison.
  21. sveumrules
    Kim signed as an MLB free agent (not amateur) so my understanding is he will become a free agent again once that option is declined. Even if he did have 3.5 years of control remaining, he doesn’t have a long enough track record of top shelf offense for me to consider him in a blockbuster Chourio/Misio package. If the Brewers were to deal those two (I don’t believe they would), I’d hope it’s for someone like Luis Robert or Jose Ramirez.
  22. sveumrules
    I saw Dead Astaire dancing with a vacuum cleaner on TV a quarter century ago. Hologram Tupac at Coachella…over a decade ago now. I’ve seen Arnold Schwarzenegger’s face morphed into a number of popular shows and movies. How hard would it really be at this point to just laser project a custom hexagonal blob floating over the plate for each player strike zone?
  23. sveumrules
    Here is what Stearns and company inherited when they took over. Quick recap is… Hits: Arcia (#1), Hader (#5), Grisham (#7), Williams (#10), Davies (#14), Houser (#15), Taylor (#19) Woodruff was still just a recent 11th round pick who had posted 109 IP with a 5.8 K9 for Brevard County in his first full pro season. Anything worthwhile in the cupboard upon arrival, Stearns and company recognized. The other high ranked hitters they inherited (Phillips, Diaz, Harrison) or later acquired (Brinson) never amounted to much, but they were able to turn them into Moose and Yelich. Developing players while installing whole new systems and overhauling personnel takes time. It takes a long time even once that stuff is all in place. Stearns & company literally flipped the script on almost a half century of organizational pitching ineptitude in like two years. It was an anomaly, unfathomable for decades until it actually finally happened. Things on the hitting side might seem slow developing by comparison, but they’ve really been unfolding on more of a standard timeline with the first wave just starting to crest.
  24. sveumrules
    The Brewers are one of only three NL teams to make a deal as of yet. They’ve already been more proactive than most of their competition and probably have at least one more move up their sleeve before the deadline.
  25. sveumrules
    Yeah, Eloy would be the best option from a performance standpoint, but will also likely cost the most to acquire. I’d probably have Canha third behind Pham or Teoscar of the remaining DH options, and would be fine with any of them really given how bad our DHs have been this year.
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