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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    All the rankings in my post were among NL teams only.
  2. sveumrules
    Believe it was fringe-y arm/actions for SS, but range should be plus for 2B.
  3. sveumrules
    Pitching staff plus defense (1st in DRS) plus some degree of luck (league high LOB%) are 5th in runs allowed Pitchers are 13th in K%, 5th in BB% and 14th in HR/9 making them 12th in FIP.
  4. sveumrules
    Likely because the move was a favor to Erceg. He wasn’t getting an MLB opportunity with Milwaukee, and Oakland’s pitching staff has been historically bad so they are better positioned to roll the dice on his raw talent. I don’t think anybody was offering much more than cash considerations for a 28 year old converted position player with a 5.07 ERA and 5.9 BB/9 in his 124 career minor league innings.
  5. sveumrules
    After opening at +115 STL and +145 MIL, it looks like Vegas Insider has the Brewers between -110 and -140 versus STL at +170 to +200 to win the division. Lotsa money to be made for Cardinals believers/Brewers dis-believers.
  6. sveumrules
    Now just one game shy of being one third of the way through their schedule, the Brewers have gone a pretty underwhelming 9-10 since the May 8th check in. Good news is that outside of STL (13-7), the other NLC teams - CIN (10-9), PIT (6-11), CHC (5-13), and NL big spenders - NYM (10-9), PHI (9-9), SDP (6-12) haven’t fared much better. Result is current division odds of 72% vs 18% at BPro, 57% vs 23% at 538 and 49% vs 33% at FanGraphs with all three systems favoring the Brewers over the Cardinals. Would have to say the closer percentages at FG look the most realistic to me at this point. Over double odds at 538 and 4x at BPro feel a little too aggressive with so much baseball left. Here are how the various systems see the non-ATL/LAD contenders to this point with playoff percentages from BPro, FanGraphs and 538 in the parentheses following… NYM (79% | 54% | 55%) MIL (76% | 58% | 68%) SDP (71% | 54% | 51%) PHI (65% | 40% | 40%) SFG (33% | 53% | 46%) STL (26% | 42% | 36%) ARI (26% | 51% | 44%) MIA (21% | 31% | 29%)
  7. sveumrules
    Barring Burnes going on some kind of run over the next two months, I don’t see anybody overpaying for him at the deadline. There are 114 pitchers with at least 40 IP so far this year, here’s how Corbin stacks up… 63.2 IP (20th) | 84 ERA- (41st) | 105 FIP- (71st) | 99 K%+ (54th) | 102 BB%+ (74th) | 109 HR9+ (67th) | 84 BABIP+ (13th) That’s essentially the line of an innings eater that has gotten some batted ball luck. Kind of insane that Burnes has gone from putting up a Pedro FIP in 2021 with elite across the board 153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+ to where he is at now. If he were dealt at the deadline, I think it’d be more of an underwhelming to fan expectations Hader type return than any kind of overpay.
  8. sveumrules
    Now that we know Adrian Griffin will be the new head coach figured I’d start a thread for the new season. Griffin got his start as an assistant under Scott Skiles on the 2008 Bucks. Time…it goes. Players currently under contract are Giannis, Jrue, Bobby, Pat, Grayson and Marjon. Sounds like Khris was at the meeting of the minds with Giannis, Horst and the owners after the interviews were done so he is likely back, will be interesting to see where the numbers come in. Not a cap expert, but believe we can also retain any of Brook, Jevon, Jingles, Jae, Wes, Dragic, Meyers Leonard and Thanasis but it will come with tax hits. That’s what Dolan is here for. Not a lot of room to maneuver with some combo of Bobby, Pat, Grayson, Marjon all they can really dangle for any kind of upgrade around the edges or in something like say a Fred Van Vleet sign and trade. I’d guess Jrue isn’t going anywhere, but he apparently wasn’t at the aforementioned meeting of the minds, so maybe he’d be the outgoing piece if they look to make a splashier move.
  9. sveumrules
    Not sure where to maybe try and find some numbers, but I would imagine there are way more ball fours called strike three than vice versa. Also seems like throughout the course of a game there are more borderline balls called strikes than obvious strikes called balls as well.
  10. sveumrules
    Glad it was just an internet outage, mon frere. Looks like Misio must have known it was your first night back so he decided to dial it up for the occasion.
  11. sveumrules
    They should just install video screens that play non stop loops of water falls and mud slides.
  12. sveumrules
    I’d go B too. Woodruff hurt, Urias hurt, Ashby hurt, Burnes & Adames underperforming, Wiemer & Turang hitting like rookies, Taylor hurt then underperforming, Lauer underperforming, 23rd in wRC+, 27th in FIP…but sitting in 1st place with the 3rd highest playoff odds in the NL.
  13. sveumrules
    Man, gotta be tough to be an Astros fan. Sure, you've got last year's World Series to fall back on, but getting shutout back to back games by a Brewers team who isn't even very good, definitely isn't a championship contender, and is only in first place because of a lackluster division has really gotta take some of the lustre off.
  14. sveumrules
    Another +.188 on his Win Probability Added that inning moves him into 5th in all of MLB.
  15. sveumrules
    Brown’s hot streak now at 338/443/492 (170 wRC+) over his last 17 G | 79 PA with 11 BB | 10 K and 12 SB against only one caught stealing during the stretch.
  16. sveumrules
    Between him and Devin for our All Star rep at the moment
  17. sveumrules
    MudCats lose 9-5, shout out to Dolly. Jheremy Vargas doubled again, Jesus Chirinos picked up a two bagger of his own and Kay-Lan Nicasia finished 2-3 with a BB and SB.
  18. sveumrules
    Shuckers have gone final at 4-0. James Meeker added another pair of scoreless innings and Ks to his ledger while Luis Contreras worked around a pair of singles for a scoreless 9th.
  19. sveumrules
    Carolina update not quite as nice with Miguel Guerrero and Yerlin Rodriguez surrendering a combined 8 runs between the 6th and 8th innings.
  20. sveumrules
    Make that 7-1 Wisco as an Eric Brown Jr single & a throwing error from the Cedar Rapids LF plates Ernesto Martinez & Eduarqui Fernandez, who had each walked prior.
  21. sveumrules
    Nashville currently trailing 2-1 top of six. JC Mejia has just relieved Janson Junk with runners on 1st/2nd and one out…and induces the double play. Monte Harrison has a pair of hits with one cashing in a Payton Henry double for the Sounds lone run and hits thus far.
  22. sveumrules
    Biloxi leading 4-0 bottom of six. That aforementioned Nick Bennett line is four scoreless with 7 K | 1 H while James Meeker has two scoreless of his own with 2 K | 1 H. Wes Clarke has doubled twice, Jeferson Quero has doubled once and Noah Campbell added the rare triple for the XBHs to this point.
  23. sveumrules
    Wisco leading 5-1 top of six. Tyler Woessner effectively wild at 5 IP | 1 R | 1 H | 5 BB | 5 K Je’Von Ward and Eric Brown Jr are both 2-3 with a bomb a piece while Matthew Wood is also 2-3 and Robert Moore has doubled.
  24. sveumrules
    Carolina currently up 3-2 bottom of seven. Will Rudy with another blazer at 5 IP | 0 R | 5 H | 2 BB | 7 K. Luke Adams, Jheremy Vargas and Gregory Barrios have all doubled. Jesus Parra replaced Adams top of 7th at 3B. Looks like Luke got caught stealing in the bottom of the 5th, so maybe something happened there?
  25. sveumrules
    No doubt, Corey Ray was a bust. At the same time here are the 1st rounders drafted after him to put up even five WAR so far, #8 Cal Quantrill (7.4 WAR), #20 Gavin Lux (5.2), #32 Will Smith (12.1 WAR) and #33 Dylan Carlson (5.0 WAR). None of the four players drafted ahead of him have even cracked 5.0 WAR yet, looks like lotsa GMs drafted bust in the first round of 2016. Is Keston Hiura a bust? Many were clamoring for him as our best hitter last year. His paltry 1.5 WAR is the best of any 1st round hitter drafted 9th or later. The only 1st rounder to crack five WAR from 2017 was #31 Drew Rasmussen, who didn't sign with the Rays. Brice Turang just made MLB from the 2018 draft, prolly a little early to declare him a bust. Here are the first rounders drafted after him to top 5.0 WAR so far, #24 Nico Hoerner (8.4 WAR) and #31 Shane McLanahan (7.7 WAR) Sure, Small looks like a bust so far. At the same time only two 1st rounders drafted after him have even cracked one WAR, #30 Anthony Volpe (1.2 WAR) and #34 Drey Jameson (1.6 WAR). Mitchell's 1.6 WAR is already tied for 2nd in the 2020 draft class, hard to call that a bust. Frelick and Brown Jr are still traversing the minors. Again, a little early to declare either of them busts to this point.
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