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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE
  2. sveumrules
    I wouldn’t be surprised if OD payroll is $100M or $150M or anywhere in between. (ok, I’ll be kinda surprised if it ends up at $150M) I’d say general fan sentiment has been trending down since the 2021 playoffs, with the Hader trade and missing the playoffs this year compounding things further. The only two things I can see reversing that trend are having another Yelich/Cain “big moves” kind of offseason to drum up excitement or making a deep postseason run. Doing both would be ideal. One might even help facilitate the other. I don’t think extending one of Burnes, Woody or Adames really moves the fan excitement needle much since they were going to be here next year anyway. Even trading for outside help is risky because the same prospects who aren’t good enough to replace Renfroe will somehow also be too much to give up for whoever we get in return. For me personally, a splashy offseason at the outer reaches of feasibility would be extending one of Adames/Woody, trading for Sean Murphy and signing Jose Abreu (which likely would put payroll in franchise record territory again), though I feel like that still wouldn’t quite clear the all-in threshold for many. Trading for Yandy Diaz then signing Christian Vazquez and Michael Brantley is probably a lot more realistic, but that definitely isn’t selling any season ticket packages.
  3. sveumrules
    I wouldn’t be surprised if OD payroll is $100M or $150M or anywhere in between. (ok, I’ll be kinda surprised if it ends up at $150M) I’d say general fan sentiment has been trending down since the 2021 playoffs, with the Hader trade and missing the playoffs this year compounding things further. The only two things I can see reversing that trend are having another Yelich/Cain “big moves” kind of offseason to drum up excitement or making a deep postseason run. Doing both would be ideal. One might even help facilitate the other. I don’t think extending one of Burnes, Woody or Adames really moves the fan excitement needle much since they were going to be here next year anyway. Even trading for outside help is risky because the same prospects who aren’t good enough to replace Renfroe will somehow also be too much to give up for whoever we get in return. For me personally, a splashy offseason at the outer reaches of feasibility would be extending one of Adames/Woody, trading for Sean Murphy and signing Jose Abreu (which likely would put payroll in franchise record territory again), though I feel like that still wouldn’t quite clear the all-in threshold for many. Trading for Yandy Diaz then signing Christian Vazquez and Michael Brantley is probably a lot more realistic, but that definitely isn’t selling any season ticket packages.
  4. sveumrules
    The Brewers offense scored 725 runs this season. SDP (705), CLE (698), SEA (690) and TBR (666) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Brewers batters posted a 103 wRC+ this season. SDP (102), TBR (101) and CLE (99) all made the playoffs with a lower wRC+. Brewers position players tallied 24.3 WAR this season. SEA (23.0), CLE (21.8), PHI (21.7), SDP (21.3) and TBR (19.9) all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers allowed 688 runs this season. All twelve of the playoff teams allowed fewer runs. Brewers pitchers posted a 3.92 FIP this season. Only STL (3.94) had a higher FIP among playoff teams. Brewers pitchers tallied 15.6 rWAR this season. Only TOR (14.4) had less rWAR among playoff teams. I didn’t find either the offense or pitching embarrassing personally, but the pitching was statistically closer to being shameful.
  5. sveumrules
    The Brewers offense scored 725 runs this season. SDP (705), CLE (698), SEA (690) and TBR (666) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Brewers batters posted a 103 wRC+ this season. SDP (102), TBR (101) and CLE (99) all made the playoffs with a lower wRC+. Brewers position players tallied 24.3 WAR this season. SEA (23.0), CLE (21.8), PHI (21.7), SDP (21.3) and TBR (19.9) all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers allowed 688 runs this season. All twelve of the playoff teams allowed fewer runs. Brewers pitchers posted a 3.92 FIP this season. Only STL (3.94) had a higher FIP among playoff teams. Brewers pitchers tallied 15.6 rWAR this season. Only TOR (14.4) had less rWAR among playoff teams. I didn’t find either the offense or pitching embarrassing personally, but the pitching was statistically closer to being shameful.
  6. sveumrules
    Because it’s a hundred some million dollars guaranteed right now and the future is uncertain. Woodruff won’t be hitting free agency until after his age 31 season. So he’s probably looking at a 4/5 year deal tops through age 35/36 if he doesn’t extend. Lets say 30 million for the next two Arby’s years and then a 5/150 deal in FA, that’s something like 7/180 if he stays healthy and dealing for two more years. Let’s say the Brewers offered him the Castillo extension, 5/110. Then it comes down to is it worth gambling on one’s health and performance for two more years for an extra $70M that might be there or might not. Everyone weighs risk/reward differently. Do the Brewers want to risk extending a pitcher at big bucks with limited payroll? Do Woodruff/Burnes want to risk potential injury in hopes of maximizing future earnings?
  7. sveumrules
    Because it’s a hundred some million dollars guaranteed right now and the future is uncertain. Woodruff won’t be hitting free agency until after his age 31 season. So he’s probably looking at a 4/5 year deal tops through age 35/36 if he doesn’t extend. Lets say 30 million for the next two Arby’s years and then a 5/150 deal in FA, that’s something like 7/180 if he stays healthy and dealing for two more years. Let’s say the Brewers offered him the Castillo extension, 5/110. Then it comes down to is it worth gambling on one’s health and performance for two more years for an extra $70M that might be there or might not. Everyone weighs risk/reward differently. Do the Brewers want to risk extending a pitcher at big bucks with limited payroll? Do Woodruff/Burnes want to risk potential injury in hopes of maximizing future earnings?
  8. sveumrules
    "We're kind of sitting in a chaos cycle of where we're doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, and it's not something we can keep doing."
  9. sveumrules
    "We're kind of sitting in a chaos cycle of where we're doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, and it's not something we can keep doing."
  10. sveumrules
    If they trade him to like WAS, OAK, PIT, CIN, KCR, DET, TEX, COL or MIA it’s definitely personal. If Arnie has a real sick sense of humor he’ll trade him to LAA and be like “if you think this was some kind of chaos cycle have fun playing with Trout/Ohtani and only winning 75 games with a $190M payroll.”
  11. sveumrules
    A players HR total is certainly one part of the equation. But why leave out batting average (Abreu ranked 8th) and on base percentage (Abreu ranked 9th)? Add it all up, adjust for home ballpark & league wide offensive environment, and Jose’s 137 wRC+ last year ranked 21st. Does that make him a “force”? I dunno, that’s an arbitrary determination. It would have made him the best hitter on the Brewers by a notable margin though with his 28.6 batting runs almost doubling the Brewers top batter Hunter Renfroe at 14.4.
  12. sveumrules
    A players HR total is certainly one part of the equation. But why leave out batting average (Abreu ranked 8th) and on base percentage (Abreu ranked 9th)? Add it all up, adjust for home ballpark & league wide offensive environment, and Jose’s 137 wRC+ last year ranked 21st. Does that make him a “force”? I dunno, that’s an arbitrary determination. It would have made him the best hitter on the Brewers by a notable margin though with his 28.6 batting runs almost doubling the Brewers top batter Hunter Renfroe at 14.4.
  13. sveumrules
    Matt Bush and Brewers agree to $1.85M contract for 2023 per MLBTR.
  14. sveumrules
    Matt Bush and Brewers agree to $1.85M contract for 2023 per MLBTR.
  15. sveumrules
    Lauer is tricky to assess for sure. Over the last two seasons he has 265 IP (68th) with an impressive 84 ERA-. Gerrit Cole & Luis Castillo clock in with 83 ERA- over the same stretch, Chris Bassitt is at 85. Issue for Lauer is his FIP- is a mediocre 104. The guys above clock in at 78, 80 and 88 FIP-, which is why most people would consider them on a different level than Lauer despite similar run prevention. Add it all up & out of 135 SP with at least 150 IP since 2021, Lauer comes in at 5.4 rWAR (52nd) but only 2.8 fWAR (89th). Lauer’s 0.89 gap between his ERA (3.43) and FIP (4.26) since 2021 is the 7th largest positive differential over that stretch. Find a team that thinks that is representative of some sort of skill Lauer possesses (some guys do consistently outperform their FIP over larger samples) and he could fetch a nice return. I’m skeptical myself. I’d rather Arnie give Braun’s old Deputy GM badge to Lauer and ask him for input on how to extract the team from the chaos cycle they’re currently mired in.
  16. sveumrules
    Lauer is tricky to assess for sure. Over the last two seasons he has 265 IP (68th) with an impressive 84 ERA-. Gerrit Cole & Luis Castillo clock in with 83 ERA- over the same stretch, Chris Bassitt is at 85. Issue for Lauer is his FIP- is a mediocre 104. The guys above clock in at 78, 80 and 88 FIP-, which is why most people would consider them on a different level than Lauer despite similar run prevention. Add it all up & out of 135 SP with at least 150 IP since 2021, Lauer comes in at 5.4 rWAR (52nd) but only 2.8 fWAR (89th). Lauer’s 0.89 gap between his ERA (3.43) and FIP (4.26) since 2021 is the 7th largest positive differential over that stretch. Find a team that thinks that is representative of some sort of skill Lauer possesses (some guys do consistently outperform their FIP over larger samples) and he could fetch a nice return. I’m skeptical myself. I’d rather Arnie give Braun’s old Deputy GM badge to Lauer and ask him for input on how to extract the team from the chaos cycle they’re currently mired in.
  17. sveumrules
    The Case Against Trea Turner in Brewer Gold. Projected contract between 8/268 (MLBTR) and 9/288 (FanGraphs).
  18. sveumrules
    The Case Against Trea Turner in Brewer Gold. Projected contract between 8/268 (MLBTR) and 9/288 (FanGraphs).
  19. sveumrules
    Relievers are thee most volatile position. Teams haven’t really shown a recent tendency to pay a premium for the additional years of team control. Since debuting in 2020, among 131 relievers with at least 100 IP, Devin is at 45 ERA- (2nd) | 51 FIP- (3rd) | 5.2 rWAR (4th) | 5.0 fWAR (3rd) | +8.23 WPA (2nd). That’s about as automatic as it gets and there are still posters here who don’t trust him. I don’t see any team offering up an enticing enough package for the Brewers to deal Devin this offseason.
  20. sveumrules
    Great article. I’ve had 6/200 as my hypothetical Burnes extension offer, so I’d be cool with 7/210.
  21. sveumrules
    For a little more context on how Corbin’s 2020-22 stacks up with other dominant stretches of recent vintage, here is my top ten (plus one) 400-ish IP runs over the last ten or so seasons… 01. deGrom 18-19: 421 IP | 52 ERA- | 55 FIP- | 17.0 rWAR | 16.0 fWAR 02. Krshw 14-15: 431 IP | 54 ERA- | 51 FIP- | 16.4 rWAR | 16.5 fWAR 03. Vrlndr 11-12: 489 IP | 60 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.5 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 04. Max 17-18: 421 IP | 59 ERA- | 65 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR 05. Burnes 20-22: 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR 06. Sale 17-18: 372 IP | 57 ERA- | 53 FIP- | 13.8 rWAR | 13.8 fWAR 07. Cole 18-19: 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 08. Kluber 17-18: 418 IP | 58 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 12.7 fWAR 09. Arrieta 14-15: 385 IP | 55 ERA- | 61 FIP- | 14.3 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR 10. Wheeler 20-22: 437 IP | 67 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.3 fWAR 11. Jose 13-16: 471 IP | 68 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 13.9 rWAR | 14.5 rWAR
  22. sveumrules
    For a little more context on how Corbin’s 2020-22 stacks up with other dominant stretches of recent vintage, here is my top ten (plus one) 400-ish IP runs over the last ten or so seasons… 01. deGrom 18-19: 421 IP | 52 ERA- | 55 FIP- | 17.0 rWAR | 16.0 fWAR 02. Krshw 14-15: 431 IP | 54 ERA- | 51 FIP- | 16.4 rWAR | 16.5 fWAR 03. Vrlndr 11-12: 489 IP | 60 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.5 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 04. Max 17-18: 421 IP | 59 ERA- | 65 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR 05. Burnes 20-22: 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR 06. Sale 17-18: 372 IP | 57 ERA- | 53 FIP- | 13.8 rWAR | 13.8 fWAR 07. Cole 18-19: 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 08. Kluber 17-18: 418 IP | 58 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 12.7 fWAR 09. Arrieta 14-15: 385 IP | 55 ERA- | 61 FIP- | 14.3 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR 10. Wheeler 20-22: 437 IP | 67 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.3 fWAR 11. Jose 13-16: 471 IP | 68 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 13.9 rWAR | 14.5 rWAR
  23. sveumrules
    Obviously Corbin has two years before hitting free agency, so who knows what his platform years will end up looking like, or if he even hits FA at all, but I thought it might be interesting to compare his numbers since 2020 to the platform years of the pitchers who have signed big money deals somewhat recently. Burnes, 2nd Max & Bauer all included 2020, and Strasburg had injuries so their splits are three years, while everyone else is two year splits before hitting FA to keep the IP totals in the same ballpark. Year (age) are for the first year of the big deal… Burnes: 2025 (30) | 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR Cole: 9/324 | 2020 (29) | 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR Stras: 7/245 | 2020 (31) | 514 IP | 73 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 14.7 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR Price: 7/217 | 2016 (30) | 468 IP | 74 ERA- | 71 FIP- | 11.1 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR Kersh: 7/215 | 2014 (26) | 463 IP | 59 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.1 rWAR | 13.2 fWAR Max: 7/210 | 2015 (30) | 434 IP | 77 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 11.3 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR Zack: 6/207 | 2016 (32) | 425 IP | 61 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 14.1 rWAR | 9.8 fWAR Max: 3/130 | 2022 (37) | 419 IP | 65 ERA-| 64 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 13.7 fWAR Bauer: 3/102 | 2021 (30) | 457 IP | 70 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 12.4 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR
  24. sveumrules
    Obviously Corbin has two years before hitting free agency, so who knows what his platform years will end up looking like, or if he even hits FA at all, but I thought it might be interesting to compare his numbers since 2020 to the platform years of the pitchers who have signed big money deals somewhat recently. Burnes, 2nd Max & Bauer all included 2020, and Strasburg had injuries so their splits are three years, while everyone else is two year splits before hitting FA to keep the IP totals in the same ballpark. Year (age) are for the first year of the big deal… Burnes: 2025 (30) | 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR Cole: 9/324 | 2020 (29) | 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR Stras: 7/245 | 2020 (31) | 514 IP | 73 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 14.7 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR Price: 7/217 | 2016 (30) | 468 IP | 74 ERA- | 71 FIP- | 11.1 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR Kersh: 7/215 | 2014 (26) | 463 IP | 59 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.1 rWAR | 13.2 fWAR Max: 7/210 | 2015 (30) | 434 IP | 77 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 11.3 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR Zack: 6/207 | 2016 (32) | 425 IP | 61 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 14.1 rWAR | 9.8 fWAR Max: 3/130 | 2022 (37) | 419 IP | 65 ERA-| 64 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 13.7 fWAR Bauer: 3/102 | 2021 (30) | 457 IP | 70 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 12.4 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR
  25. sveumrules
    Also feel like Stearns deserves some major credit for the organization's fortunes on the pitching front completely flipping on his watch... 1970-2015: 103 ERA- (28th) | 104 FIP- (30th) 2016-22: 93 ERA- (6th) | 97 FIP- (7th) Remember all the consternation about how the pitching was going to revert back to historical franchise norms when Derrick Johnson left for Cincinnati?
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