sveumrules

Posted this on another thread, but the writing was on the wall well before the deadline. After the franchise best 32-18 start they went 25-27 heading into the deadline. Here are the splits from those two runs of games... 04/07-05/30 (32-18) PIT: 81 ERA- (4th) | 83 FIP- (2nd) | 8.2 rWAR (4th) | 8.6 fWAR (1st) OFF: 228 RS (7th) | 103 wRC+ (10th) | 7.0 WAR (7th) About what what we expected coming into the season, a dominant pitching staff and an above average offense leading to one of the better teams in baseball. 06/01-07/31 (25-27) PIT: 107 ERA- (18th) | 106 FIP- (21st) | 3.1 rWAR (20th) | 3.1 fWAR (23rd) OFF: 239 R (12th) | 111 wRC+ (7th) | 9.9 WAR (6th) Offense mostly held serve adding 8 points of wRC+ and almost 3 WAR, though run scoring fell off a little relative to the rest of the league. Pitching went in the tank. Hader missing time and giving up runs in bunches instead of putting up all zeroes the main culprit (+1.5 rWAR first 50, -1.0 rWAR next 52). During this stretch the pitching staff essentially consisted of four guys, Burnes (1.6 rWAR), Williams (1.6 rWAR), Woddruff (1.5 rWAR) and Box (0.7 rWAR). Our fifth best pitcher during this stretch was Jandel Gustave (0.3 rWAR), that pretty much says it all. I wouldn’t go back and trade those prospects for a playoff appearance, this team wasn’t going anywhere anyway.

Yeah, Lauer pitched more, but not better. 76 ERA- | 95 FIP- in 2021 compared to 91 ERA- | 112 FIP- in 2022. Pretty crazy how just about every returning pitcher put up worse results in 2022. The foibles of pitching, I guess. Burnes 21: 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- Burnes 22: 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- Woody 21: 61 ERA- | 69 FIP- Woody 22: 75 ERA- | 77 FIP- Peralta 21: 67 ERA- | 73 FIP- Peralta 22: 88 ERA- | 77 FIP- Houser 21: 77 ERA- | 102 FIP- Houser 22: 117 ERA- | 105 FIP- Suter 21: 73 ERA- | 92 FIP- Suter 22: 93 ERA- | 110 FIP- Hader 21: 29 ERA- | 39 FIP- Hader 22: 105 ERA- | 87 FIP- Ashby 21: 108 ERA- | 84 FIP- Ashby 22: 110 ERA- | 102 FIP- Only guys to to really stay the same or get better (beside Milner) were… Box 21: 80 ERA- | 86 FIP- Box 22: 73 ERA- | 89 FIP- Devin 21: 60 ERA- | 66 FIP- Devin 22: 48 ERA- | 51 FIP-

Yeah, Lauer pitched more, but not better. 76 ERA- | 95 FIP- in 2021 compared to 91 ERA- | 112 FIP- in 2022. Pretty crazy how just about every returning pitcher put up worse results in 2022. The foibles of pitching, I guess. Burnes 21: 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- Burnes 22: 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- Woody 21: 61 ERA- | 69 FIP- Woody 22: 75 ERA- | 77 FIP- Peralta 21: 67 ERA- | 73 FIP- Peralta 22: 88 ERA- | 77 FIP- Houser 21: 77 ERA- | 102 FIP- Houser 22: 117 ERA- | 105 FIP- Suter 21: 73 ERA- | 92 FIP- Suter 22: 93 ERA- | 110 FIP- Hader 21: 29 ERA- | 39 FIP- Hader 22: 105 ERA- | 87 FIP- Ashby 21: 108 ERA- | 84 FIP- Ashby 22: 110 ERA- | 102 FIP- Only guys to to really stay the same or get better (beside Milner) were… Box 21: 80 ERA- | 86 FIP- Box 22: 73 ERA- | 89 FIP- Devin 21: 60 ERA- | 66 FIP- Devin 22: 48 ERA- | 51 FIP-

Jays have Kirk who was an All Star and Moreno who was a Top Ten overall prospect entering the season before putting up a 120 wRC+ at AAA and a 113 wRC+ in MLB during his age 22 season. Jansen is expendable depth for the Jays. Prior to being acquired by the Brewers, Omar posted a 113 wRC+ and 4.5 WAR over 1,216 PAs. The main thing holding back his value was his defense at -41 DRS and -22.3 FRM. Kinda crazy how his profile flipped with the Brewers, 85 wRC+ and 4.5 WAR over 867 PAs with +6 DRS and +20 FRM. Jansen is at 98 wRC+ and 6.6 WAR in 1,079 career PAs. While he hasn't hit as well as Omar for his career, he is at 124 wRC+ over his last two seasons/453 PAs and he hasn't been a butcher behind the plate with +10 DRS and +9.2 FRM career. I'd think Jansen's trade value is higher now than Omar's was when we acquired him.

If everybody stays healthy & is ready to go come playoff time they’ve got as good a chance as anybody. I essentially look at the roster like this… Postseason Players: Giannis, Khris, Jrue, Bobby, Pat Regular Season Players: Brook, Wes, Grayson, Carter, Hill, Ibaka Wild Cards: MarJon, Jingles Garbage Time: Thanasis, Nwora Top three things I’m looking forward to are the continued evolution of Giannis, how MarJon/Jingles fit in, and how Horst & team manage to turn some of those RSPs into one more guy that can handle playoff minutes before the deadline.

Not sure if any place tracks % of times a run scored in each split, but with a runner on 2nd and no outs the Brewers 867 OPS ranked 5th. Only NYM, STL, PHI and HOU posted a higher OPS in the split. The Dodgers ranked 28th with a 571 OPS in this split. Runner on 3rd and one out the Brewers 834 OPS ranked 20th, so they didn’t fare as well in that split, but it was also only 46 PAs, about 2% of the Brewers season total. RE24 tracks how many runs a team “should have” scored if they had average performance in each of the 24 unique base/out states. Both BRef (+5.1) and FanGraphs (+8.6) had the Brewers offense slightly positive on the season. We can try to parse different ways the offense could have done better to get those two extra wins needed to make the playoffs, but ultimately the position players improved their WAR from 18.9 in 2021 to 24.1 this year. The pitching staff was a lot leakier, dropping from 26.3 rWAR in 2021 to 15.6 rWAR in 2022.

Not sure if any place tracks % of times a run scored in each split, but with a runner on 2nd and no outs the Brewers 867 OPS ranked 5th. Only NYM, STL, PHI and HOU posted a higher OPS in the split. The Dodgers ranked 28th with a 571 OPS in this split. Runner on 3rd and one out the Brewers 834 OPS ranked 20th, so they didn’t fare as well in that split, but it was also only 46 PAs, about 2% of the Brewers season total. RE24 tracks how many runs a team “should have” scored if they had average performance in each of the 24 unique base/out states. Both BRef (+5.1) and FanGraphs (+8.6) had the Brewers offense slightly positive on the season. We can try to parse different ways the offense could have done better to get those two extra wins needed to make the playoffs, but ultimately the position players improved their WAR from 18.9 in 2021 to 24.1 this year. The pitching staff was a lot leakier, dropping from 26.3 rWAR in 2021 to 15.6 rWAR in 2022.

If the pitching performs up to expectations, the Brewers still make the playoffs even with McCutchen being predictably mediocre, Small not seizing his opportunity & the lackluster deadline. In 2021, the pitching staff posted 26.4 rWAR, 3rd in MLB. This year they’ve posted 14.9 rWAR, 14th in MLB, a drop off of over 11 wins. From 2018-21 the bullpen went 148-86 with that .629 W% ranking second behind only the Dodgers. This year they went 35-31. Had they performed at 2018-21 levels that is an extra 6-7 wins.

If the pitching performs up to expectations, the Brewers still make the playoffs even with McCutchen being predictably mediocre, Small not seizing his opportunity & the lackluster deadline. In 2021, the pitching staff posted 26.4 rWAR, 3rd in MLB. This year they’ve posted 14.9 rWAR, 14th in MLB, a drop off of over 11 wins. From 2018-21 the bullpen went 148-86 with that .629 W% ranking second behind only the Dodgers. This year they went 35-31. Had they performed at 2018-21 levels that is an extra 6-7 wins.

Yelich has a full No Trade Clause & his contract is about 150 million underwater. He isn’t going anywhere. His last guaranteed year is 2028 though, so only six more years.

If you are around Milwaukee at all Classic Slice in Bay View has a really good Detroit Style.

Yeah, coming into the season they were slight favorites over STL for the Division, but for all intense porpoises it was a coin flip. We all knew if the coin flip didn’t fall our way that we’d be fighting it out for a Wild Card with about five teams vying for the three spots. This team was always a clear step down from LA/ATL/NYM for me, after 50 games I thought they had a chance to be at the top of that next tier, but Hader blew up, starting pitchers got hurt, the offense went MIA for stretches, the deadline didn’t work out. That it took so much going wrong for this team to likely end up missing out on the playoffs by a couple two tree games when all is said & done is (to me anyway) more of just “baseball happening” than it is any indictment of this season being some kind of embarrassing organizational failure.

Yeah, coming into the season they were slight favorites over STL for the Division, but for all intense porpoises it was a coin flip. We all knew if the coin flip didn’t fall our way that we’d be fighting it out for a Wild Card with about five teams vying for the three spots. This team was always a clear step down from LA/ATL/NYM for me, after 50 games I thought they had a chance to be at the top of that next tier, but Hader blew up, starting pitchers got hurt, the offense went MIA for stretches, the deadline didn’t work out. That it took so much going wrong for this team to likely end up missing out on the playoffs by a couple two tree games when all is said & done is (to me anyway) more of just “baseball happening” than it is any indictment of this season being some kind of embarrassing organizational failure.

Yup. For all the talk of “wasting a year of Burnes and Woodruff with this offense” or all the McCutchen/Hiura controversy, the offense is still 8th in R/G with the position players wRC+ improved six points from last year too. They did what they were supposed to. Pitching, on the other hand, currently 18th in R/G after finishing 3rd last year. Bullpen has been especially leaky compared to past Stearns squads. 35-27 (.565 W%) might seem pretty solid on the surface, but is a couple steps down from the 146-86 (.629 W%) record the Brewers pen posted from 2018-21. Would have an extra four wins if this year’s pen posted the 2018-21 W%.

Yup. For all the talk of “wasting a year of Burnes and Woodruff with this offense” or all the McCutchen/Hiura controversy, the offense is still 8th in R/G with the position players wRC+ improved six points from last year too. They did what they were supposed to. Pitching, on the other hand, currently 18th in R/G after finishing 3rd last year. Bullpen has been especially leaky compared to past Stearns squads. 35-27 (.565 W%) might seem pretty solid on the surface, but is a couple steps down from the 146-86 (.629 W%) record the Brewers pen posted from 2018-21. Would have an extra four wins if this year’s pen posted the 2018-21 W%.

Don’t the Brewers have to make the WS or NLCS or something for Stearns to opt out after this season? Admire your optimism.

Love those mechanics. Looks like pretty standard stuff, then he does that little fake leg kick thing and everything just explodes from there.

Love those mechanics. Looks like pretty standard stuff, then he does that little fake leg kick thing and everything just explodes from there.

"Compounding the issue, Wong was replaced by Pedro Severino, the third catcher on the club. If you're going to pinch-hit in the five-hole in a high leverage situation, your backup to your backup catcher shouldn't be part of the plan. If that is how they "drew it up," then the Brewers will need a lot of help from luck and randomness to make a postseason run." Wong has a 365 OPS vs LHP this year, and a devilish 666 OPS vs LHP over the last three seasons. Severino has a 639 OPS vs LHP this year (only 17 PAs) and a 769 OPS vs LHP over the last three seasons. Third catcher or not, Severino has a better track record vs LHP than Wong. The only two "needle mover" bats on the market got dealt to the Padres in the same trade. Mancini isn't a clear upgrade over Tellez/McCutchen, Benintendi isn't a CF. Drury would have been fine depth, but Brosseau has a 134 OPS+ in that role already, kind of hard to improve on that from your backup IF. Would I have preferred for Stearns & company to upgrade the offense? Of course. But I also understand that based on how the market shook out there was limited opportunity to do so & the best they realistically could have done was an Escobar type move that increases the depth, but doesn't really impact the top end at all. Even the Padres, who acquired the two best hitters on the market in Soto & Bell, will be "needing a lot of luck to score enough runs against the best teams in the league." Their most bullish post-deadline World Series odds of 9.6% at FanGraphs (only 2% on 538 and 5.1% on PECOTA) are still solidly behind the Dodgers (15.8%), Mets (14.0%), Braves (12.0%) in the NL and the Astros (15.1%) and Yankees (11.0%) in the AL.

Seventy Nine Plate Appearances vs RHP. That is Hiura’s entire case. 79 PAs with a .520 BABIP. The highest BABIP among qualified hitters this year is Xander at .389. 79 PAs with a 53.8% HR/FB rate. The highest HR/FB rate among qualified hitters is Judge at 36.2%. 79 PAs with a 43.0 K%. The highest K% among qualified hitters is Brandon Marsh at 36.2%, though he is at least a GG caliber defender (+8 DRS | +4.7 UZR | +9 OAA). Even after his scorching 2019 debut (348 PAs) people were like “that was cool, but there’s no way Keston repeats his .402 BABIP or 24.1 HR/FB% if he doesn’t get that 30.7 K% under control”. Keston had 321 PAs vs RHP from 2020-21 with an 80 wRC+ | 35.5 K% | .263 BABIP | 20.9 HR/FB%. I’ve been enjoying the offense starting to click on all cylinders recently, I don’t need to watch Hiura regress to the mean.

Bell’s three run HR in the 7th provides the winning run for WAS tonight. Crew now four games up on STL.

Bell’s three run HR in the 7th provides the winning run for WAS tonight. Crew now four games up on STL.

Bell makes perfect sense, DH vs RHP (129 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) compared to 88 wRC+ vs RHP for McCutchen over the same time frame. And then 1B vs LHP (128 wRC+ vs LHP since 2021) compared to 90 wRC+ vs LHP for Rowdy since 2021. Agree that I wouldn't go higher than Valerio as a headliner though.

Bell makes perfect sense, DH vs RHP (129 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) compared to 88 wRC+ vs RHP for McCutchen over the same time frame. And then 1B vs LHP (128 wRC+ vs LHP since 2021) compared to 90 wRC+ vs LHP for Rowdy since 2021. Agree that I wouldn't go higher than Valerio as a headliner though.

Was just thinking who the highest ranked prospects I’d be willing to trade for Benny are & Valerio/Hiura is what I came up with too.