sveumrules

Not sure if any place tracks % of times a run scored in each split, but with a runner on 2nd and no outs the Brewers 867 OPS ranked 5th. Only NYM, STL, PHI and HOU posted a higher OPS in the split. The Dodgers ranked 28th with a 571 OPS in this split. Runner on 3rd and one out the Brewers 834 OPS ranked 20th, so they didn’t fare as well in that split, but it was also only 46 PAs, about 2% of the Brewers season total. RE24 tracks how many runs a team “should have” scored if they had average performance in each of the 24 unique base/out states. Both BRef (+5.1) and FanGraphs (+8.6) had the Brewers offense slightly positive on the season. We can try to parse different ways the offense could have done better to get those two extra wins needed to make the playoffs, but ultimately the position players improved their WAR from 18.9 in 2021 to 24.1 this year. The pitching staff was a lot leakier, dropping from 26.3 rWAR in 2021 to 15.6 rWAR in 2022.

If the pitching performs up to expectations, the Brewers still make the playoffs even with McCutchen being predictably mediocre, Small not seizing his opportunity & the lackluster deadline. In 2021, the pitching staff posted 26.4 rWAR, 3rd in MLB. This year they’ve posted 14.9 rWAR, 14th in MLB, a drop off of over 11 wins. From 2018-21 the bullpen went 148-86 with that .629 W% ranking second behind only the Dodgers. This year they went 35-31. Had they performed at 2018-21 levels that is an extra 6-7 wins.

If the pitching performs up to expectations, the Brewers still make the playoffs even with McCutchen being predictably mediocre, Small not seizing his opportunity & the lackluster deadline. In 2021, the pitching staff posted 26.4 rWAR, 3rd in MLB. This year they’ve posted 14.9 rWAR, 14th in MLB, a drop off of over 11 wins. From 2018-21 the bullpen went 148-86 with that .629 W% ranking second behind only the Dodgers. This year they went 35-31. Had they performed at 2018-21 levels that is an extra 6-7 wins.

Yelich has a full No Trade Clause & his contract is about 150 million underwater. He isn’t going anywhere. His last guaranteed year is 2028 though, so only six more years.

If you are around Milwaukee at all Classic Slice in Bay View has a really good Detroit Style.

Yeah, coming into the season they were slight favorites over STL for the Division, but for all intense porpoises it was a coin flip. We all knew if the coin flip didn’t fall our way that we’d be fighting it out for a Wild Card with about five teams vying for the three spots. This team was always a clear step down from LA/ATL/NYM for me, after 50 games I thought they had a chance to be at the top of that next tier, but Hader blew up, starting pitchers got hurt, the offense went MIA for stretches, the deadline didn’t work out. That it took so much going wrong for this team to likely end up missing out on the playoffs by a couple two tree games when all is said & done is (to me anyway) more of just “baseball happening” than it is any indictment of this season being some kind of embarrassing organizational failure.

Yeah, coming into the season they were slight favorites over STL for the Division, but for all intense porpoises it was a coin flip. We all knew if the coin flip didn’t fall our way that we’d be fighting it out for a Wild Card with about five teams vying for the three spots. This team was always a clear step down from LA/ATL/NYM for me, after 50 games I thought they had a chance to be at the top of that next tier, but Hader blew up, starting pitchers got hurt, the offense went MIA for stretches, the deadline didn’t work out. That it took so much going wrong for this team to likely end up missing out on the playoffs by a couple two tree games when all is said & done is (to me anyway) more of just “baseball happening” than it is any indictment of this season being some kind of embarrassing organizational failure.

Yup. For all the talk of “wasting a year of Burnes and Woodruff with this offense” or all the McCutchen/Hiura controversy, the offense is still 8th in R/G with the position players wRC+ improved six points from last year too. They did what they were supposed to. Pitching, on the other hand, currently 18th in R/G after finishing 3rd last year. Bullpen has been especially leaky compared to past Stearns squads. 35-27 (.565 W%) might seem pretty solid on the surface, but is a couple steps down from the 146-86 (.629 W%) record the Brewers pen posted from 2018-21. Would have an extra four wins if this year’s pen posted the 2018-21 W%.

Yup. For all the talk of “wasting a year of Burnes and Woodruff with this offense” or all the McCutchen/Hiura controversy, the offense is still 8th in R/G with the position players wRC+ improved six points from last year too. They did what they were supposed to. Pitching, on the other hand, currently 18th in R/G after finishing 3rd last year. Bullpen has been especially leaky compared to past Stearns squads. 35-27 (.565 W%) might seem pretty solid on the surface, but is a couple steps down from the 146-86 (.629 W%) record the Brewers pen posted from 2018-21. Would have an extra four wins if this year’s pen posted the 2018-21 W%.

Don’t the Brewers have to make the WS or NLCS or something for Stearns to opt out after this season? Admire your optimism.

Love those mechanics. Looks like pretty standard stuff, then he does that little fake leg kick thing and everything just explodes from there.

Love those mechanics. Looks like pretty standard stuff, then he does that little fake leg kick thing and everything just explodes from there.

"Compounding the issue, Wong was replaced by Pedro Severino, the third catcher on the club. If you're going to pinch-hit in the five-hole in a high leverage situation, your backup to your backup catcher shouldn't be part of the plan. If that is how they "drew it up," then the Brewers will need a lot of help from luck and randomness to make a postseason run." Wong has a 365 OPS vs LHP this year, and a devilish 666 OPS vs LHP over the last three seasons. Severino has a 639 OPS vs LHP this year (only 17 PAs) and a 769 OPS vs LHP over the last three seasons. Third catcher or not, Severino has a better track record vs LHP than Wong. The only two "needle mover" bats on the market got dealt to the Padres in the same trade. Mancini isn't a clear upgrade over Tellez/McCutchen, Benintendi isn't a CF. Drury would have been fine depth, but Brosseau has a 134 OPS+ in that role already, kind of hard to improve on that from your backup IF. Would I have preferred for Stearns & company to upgrade the offense? Of course. But I also understand that based on how the market shook out there was limited opportunity to do so & the best they realistically could have done was an Escobar type move that increases the depth, but doesn't really impact the top end at all. Even the Padres, who acquired the two best hitters on the market in Soto & Bell, will be "needing a lot of luck to score enough runs against the best teams in the league." Their most bullish post-deadline World Series odds of 9.6% at FanGraphs (only 2% on 538 and 5.1% on PECOTA) are still solidly behind the Dodgers (15.8%), Mets (14.0%), Braves (12.0%) in the NL and the Astros (15.1%) and Yankees (11.0%) in the AL.

Seventy Nine Plate Appearances vs RHP. That is Hiura’s entire case. 79 PAs with a .520 BABIP. The highest BABIP among qualified hitters this year is Xander at .389. 79 PAs with a 53.8% HR/FB rate. The highest HR/FB rate among qualified hitters is Judge at 36.2%. 79 PAs with a 43.0 K%. The highest K% among qualified hitters is Brandon Marsh at 36.2%, though he is at least a GG caliber defender (+8 DRS | +4.7 UZR | +9 OAA). Even after his scorching 2019 debut (348 PAs) people were like “that was cool, but there’s no way Keston repeats his .402 BABIP or 24.1 HR/FB% if he doesn’t get that 30.7 K% under control”. Keston had 321 PAs vs RHP from 2020-21 with an 80 wRC+ | 35.5 K% | .263 BABIP | 20.9 HR/FB%. I’ve been enjoying the offense starting to click on all cylinders recently, I don’t need to watch Hiura regress to the mean.

Bell’s three run HR in the 7th provides the winning run for WAS tonight. Crew now four games up on STL.

Bell’s three run HR in the 7th provides the winning run for WAS tonight. Crew now four games up on STL.

Bell makes perfect sense, DH vs RHP (129 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) compared to 88 wRC+ vs RHP for McCutchen over the same time frame. And then 1B vs LHP (128 wRC+ vs LHP since 2021) compared to 90 wRC+ vs LHP for Rowdy since 2021. Agree that I wouldn't go higher than Valerio as a headliner though.

Bell makes perfect sense, DH vs RHP (129 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) compared to 88 wRC+ vs RHP for McCutchen over the same time frame. And then 1B vs LHP (128 wRC+ vs LHP since 2021) compared to 90 wRC+ vs LHP for Rowdy since 2021. Agree that I wouldn't go higher than Valerio as a headliner though.

Was just thinking who the highest ranked prospects I’d be willing to trade for Benny are & Valerio/Hiura is what I came up with too.

Congrats to Ashby & the Brewers’ scouting/coaching/development staff. Bummer about Jace, that he’s been our best position player by BRef WAR so far pretty much says it all about the offense. Cot’s has Burnes listed as a free agent after 2024 though?

Jones upside is tantalizing, but seems like the Brewers have kind of shied away from the boom/bust guys in the first round since Ray. Hiura was always at least supposed to hit even if he never figured out defense and then Turang, Small, Mitchell and Frelick have been more high floor with a chance to pop if something clicks kind of guys.

Reading through the FanGraphs scouting reports of guys in our range & with full admission that I know absolutely nothing, some of my personal favorites &/or guys that sound like they kind of have Brewer-y profiles to me are #23 Tyler Locklear (1B), #29 Connor Hjerpe (P), #31 Parker Messick (P), #36 John Kasevich (3B), #41 Malcolm Moore (C/1B), #45 Dylan Beavers (RF), #48 Cade Doughty (3B), #66 Tanner Schobel (SS), #84 Ivan Melendez (1B), #87 Jake Madden (P), #95 Hayden Dunhurst (C), #98 Carter Young (SS), #106 Tyler Cleveland (P), #107 Spencer Giesting (P), #111 Jackson Cox (P), #117 Alan Roden (1B), #124 Andrew Taylor (P) and #125 Jurrangelo Cijntje (P).

Awesome that they are giving Low a shot to try the two way thing out. Hopefully he can keep the early success going. As frustrating as Mitchell's fits & starts are, I'm holding out hope for the long run that he maybe takes a similar path to DBacks CF prospect Corbin Carroll, who after being drafted 16th overall in 2019 only played in 49 games from 2019 to 2021 on account of injury/pandemic, but has gone on to post a 315/434/635 line this year to justify his draft slot/prospect hype.

FanGraphs posted their latest 2022 Draft Board with scouting reports for over 100 players… https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0&pageitems=10000000000000

Thanks for the clarification, Mass. Think that makes Ramon a more realistic option for sure then. Has mashed LHP for a 916 OPS this year & 828 OPS for his career.