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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Took some clicking around but found it on Baseball Savant.
  2. sveumrules
    TBR average EV on GBs: 87.8 MPH (t-1st) MIL average EV on GBs: 84.9 MPH (t-27th)
  3. sveumrules
    I too have no idea either, but I kind of think so. Sticking with Tampa Bay here are their results on each batted ball type and on pulled balls compared to the Brewers... Line Drives TBR: 380 PA | 417 wRC+ MIL: 339 PA | 372 wRC+ Ground Balls TBR: 863 PA | 70 wRC+ MIL: 819 PA | 11 wRC+ Fly Balls TBR: 803 PA | 158 wRC+ MIL: 670 PA | 133 wRC+ Pulled TBR: 831 PA | 203 wRC+ MIL: 710 PA | 129 wRC+ The Rays are outperforming league average results on all three batted ball types, which to me indicates the approach numbers you posted are leading them to swinging at better pitches to get those results. Their 70 wRC+ on ground balls is waaay ahead of second best team, the Braves at 52 wRC+. They have a similar gap on line drives with second place 23% behind at a 394 wRC+. Their 203 wRC+ on pulled balls is 2nd and their 158 wRC+ on fly balls is 4th. The Brewers conversely are below league average on both grounders and fly balls with their 11 wRC+ on grounders second to last. Their 129 wRC+ on pulled balls is dead last. The only batted ball type they are above average is line drives, but they have been hitting them with the second worst frequency in MLB. Obviously there are a lot of moving pieces, but an abundance of weakly hit ground balls and a paucity of line drives/pulled fly balls doesn't seem like the ideal way to go about generating offense.
  4. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has them on their leaderboards now.
  5. sveumrules
    For DSL arms I pretty much just keep an eye on age, K/BB ratio and what kind of role or promotion schedule the development staff has lined up for them to read between the lines. Don’t really start to get more detailed reports on stuff or footage until they get to the AZ or Carolina.
  6. sveumrules
    Edgardo Ordonez with his first stateside bomb and two BBs. Keep it going!!
  7. sveumrules
    The Brewers offense has stunk so far this year, their current 85 wRC+ would be thee literal very worst position player mark in franchise history. I thought looking at their batted ball profile might offer some insight into why they’ve been so bad. Let’s start with batted ball type… The Brewers GroundBall%+ of 104 is 6th highest in MLB. League average on ground balls this year is 243/243/266 (36 wRC+). The Brewers LineDrive%+ of 92 is 2nd lowest in MLB. League average on line drives this year is 705/700/918 (359 wRC+). Their FlyBall%+ of 99 is essentially average, but too many ground balls and a severe lack of line drives is a bad foundation. How about directionality? The Brewers have been about average going the other way with an Oppo%+ of 100. Their Pull%+ of 95 is 4th lowest. League average on pulled balls is 345/344/651 (169 wRC+). Up the middle, their Center%+ of 106 is 3rd highest. League average up the middle is 327/323/485 (118 wRC+). Similar to ground balls vs line drives, we again see the Brewers at fairly extreme points on the wrong ends of the pull vs up the middle scales. A large degree of the offenses WOAHs can be traced to underperformance from Adames, Winker, Tellez, etc, but could a flawed approach be putting Brewers batters behind the eight ball from the outset?
  8. sveumrules
    Luis Castillo making his 2023 debut tonight in AZ. Hendry Mendez and Tayden Hall also back in the lineup after injury absences.
  9. sveumrules
    Contreras definitely has a chance if they go with three catchers, though JTR has the edge in name recognition.
  10. sveumrules
    Getting close to that time of year...
  11. sveumrules
    Gasser was walking the world to start the season but has reigned it in recently… First seven starts…38 IP | 47 K | 25 BB | 4.74 ERA Last six starts…36.1 IP | 40 K | 5 BB | 3.22 ERA
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, at this time last year the Phillies had 1.9% WS Odds, in 2021 the Braves were at 0.8% WS Odds on June 26, Nationals were a little higher at 3.4% on 6/26/19. On 10/20/2018, entering Game 7 of the NLCS, the closest the Brewers had been to the World Series in almost 40 years. FanGraphs had their odds of winning the World Series at nine percent.
  13. sveumrules
    No doubt this has been the longest stretch of mediocrity since Stearns and company took over. Since that franchise best 32-18 start last year they have gone 94-95, and that season plus of mediocrity we are currently mired in is only saved from being legitimately bad by this year’s 14-5 start. Zooming out for a second, what we’ve had as Brewers fans since 2017 has been more good than bad, the 7th most wins in MLB over seven seasons. But there are all kind of truisms that describe where we’re at now…all good things come to an end, and normally with more of a whimper than a bang. But it ain’t over yet either. The Brewers are still division favorites by both Vegas & the various projection systems, and this next month of games leading up to the deadline will be huge in determining if they’re going to keep whimpering along or maybe flip the script and set themselves up for a better chance to go out with some kind of bang.
  14. sveumrules
    I thought the Brewers opening last year a franchise best 32-18 was pretty inspiring, especially after laying goose eggs in the 2021 NLDS. Sure, finishing up the season 54-58 mootified the whole thing, but at least those first two months were exciting while they were happening. Outrage over Corbin Burnes and the missing 700K dominated the ST news cycle, but turning Ruiz into Contreras was generally seen as one of the more inspired moves earlier in the winter. Starting this season 14-5 was another burst of fun, going 26-32 since almost feels like deja vu all over again. Add it all up and despite all that’s gone wrong, the Brewers are right about where we thought they’d be almost half way through the season…on pace for around 85 wins and battling for the division lead, even if they maybe haven’t gotten there quite the way we thought they would and are currently battling the Reds instead of the Red Birds. No doubt this team has been doing more ebbing than flowing over the last 15 months but it hasn’t all been blah, and there is still plenty of time to maybe get that flow going again just in time for when it really matters. @edfunderburk what does the Bible say about “ye of little faith”? 🙏🙏
  15. sveumrules
    If teams believed that Hiura’s OPS over a minuscule sample at one specific position had any kind of predictive power, they would have picked him up off the scrap heap when he was DFA’d. That none of the other 29 teams took that chance indicates they all believe the same thing the Brewers FO did, that his 2022 results were likely unsustainable due to fluky BABIP, HR/FB% and K%.
  16. sveumrules
    After today his teams have a 373-264 record when he plays.
  17. sveumrules
    2021 cutter: 95.2 MPH | 2767 spin rate | 32.1 whiff% | 145 stuff+ | 105 location+ 2023 cutter: 94.3 MPH | 2644 spin rate | 24.9 whiff% | 126 stuff+ | 99 location+ Looks like the pitch has lost some of its raw effectiveness and Corbin has also been less precise with his command.
  18. sveumrules
    Not to mention that three of our actual competent hitters - Contreras, Anderson, Miller - were acquired by Arnold this offseason.
  19. sveumrules
    Looks like Freddy reverted back to a more traditional pitch mix for his start yesterday - 59 FB | 20 SL | 13 CU | 6 CH
  20. sveumrules
    First seven starts…38 IP | 47 K | 25 BB | 4.74 ERA Last six starts…36.1 IP | 40 K | 5 BB | 3.22 ERA Knew he had been pitching better but looks like he has really gotten his command figured out over the last month.
  21. sveumrules
    Is it though? DH plate appearances since 2022… Cutch (360) Yelich (171) Winker (131) Hiura (96) Tellez (78) From there it drops down to Renfroe (29) Contreras (28) Voit (26) Ruf (24) Those are all pretty much bat only players and primary DHs. They just haven’t been delivering. Cutch, Winker, Hiura, Voit and Ruf account for 637 of the Brewers 997 DH PAs since 2022, so it’s been used much more by primary DHs than it has been to rotate position players for a rest.
  22. sveumrules
    Guardians offense (88 wRC+ | 3.96 R/G) is in the same neighborhood (homeless encampment?) as the the Brewers offense (85 wRC+ | 4.03 R/G) so far this year. They are killing us on K% (19.1 vs 25.7), but those six or seven extra balls in play per 100 PAs haven’t really helped them out all that much.
  23. sveumrules
    Might have been some ACL box score shenanigans going on. Corniel now showing up in the box at 4 IP and 7 K. They’ve got Jesus Rivero following him up with 6 K vs only 1 H in 3 scoreless IP, then Anfernny Reyes closing it out with 3 K over 2 IP to run his season total to 7.2 IP | 0 ER | 10 K. Juan Baez (3-4, 2B) accounted for the entirety of the offense though.
  24. sveumrules
    Looks like Eric Brown Jr notched a pair of walks and a stolen base (and got picked off) in his return to action tonight.
  25. sveumrules
    Good to see on DT. Abner also struck out the side with a BB in his inning. Hopefully Frelick is just a contusion or something and not a Yelich situation.
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