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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Sorry, totally misread that as Wiemer.
  2. sveumrules
    This is a great overview on sample size.
  3. sveumrules
    Meaningless until he has considerably more plate appearances.
  4. sveumrules
    Clayton will be lucky to carve out a career as anything more than an up/down optionable reliever at this point. Asking him to face AAA pitchers after four years of not hitting professionally might be stretching him a little thin.
  5. sveumrules
    Sounds like Oneil Cruz fractured his left ankle in a play at the plate today.
  6. sveumrules
    MichaelJordanAndITookThatPersonal.jpg
  7. sveumrules
    Sounds like Robert Stock has had a few (eerie music plays) unsolved mysteries in the early going.
  8. sveumrules
    0.7 bWAR in 141 career innings is above replacement, sure, but that doesn’t make it good or even average. By FIP (which has better predictive value than ERA over a sample of only 141 IP spread out over four years), Woodford has been 12% below average for his career.
  9. sveumrules
    Deputy General Managers Eric Lauer & Corbin Burnes: 8.68 ERA in 18.2 IP. All other Brewers pitchers: 0.69 ERA (nice) in 52.1 IP.
  10. sveumrules
    In 2021 the Brewers posted a 26th ranked 91 wRC+ vs LHP. For 2022 they brought in historical lefty mashers Renfroe, McCutchen and Brosseau to beef things up. That boosted them to a 22nd ranked 92 wRC+ vs LHP. This year they turned things over quite a bit more. Will it yield better, worse or about the same results? I don’t know. Whichever way things end up shaking out, fans will likely still expect the Brewers to struggle against LHP whenever one comes up in the rotation.
  11. sveumrules
    Cardinals have historically teed off on Lauer, 6.46 ERA and .927 OPS over 30 innings. Montgomery is one of those “crafty” lefties that has given the Brewers fits the last few years. Only 15 IP, but he has allowed a much more reasonable 3.52 ERA and .752 OPS facing the Brewers.
  12. sveumrules
    Obviously super early still, but league average BA was at .248 entering today vs .231 in April of last year. Ball might be a little juicier again this year too with a .161 Isolated Slugging and 12.6 HR/FB% so far. Last few Aprils for reference… 2022: .137 ISO | 10.0 HR/FB% 2021: .157 ISO | 13.3 HR/FB% 2019: .176 ISO | 14.4 HR/FB% 2018: .156 ISO | 11.9 HR/FB% 2017: .160 ISO | 12.8 HR/FB%
  13. sveumrules
    Yordan is a good call too. His 6/110 extension kicks in this year and covers his age 26-31 seasons. Trout (176) and Judge (168) are the only two to have bettered Alvarez’s 164 wRC+ since he debuted in 2019. Even Soto is only at a 154 mark. If we’re talking hypotheticals, let’s say Ohtani and Trout both have a healthy, productive 2023, but the Angels still flounder. Their bullpen literally just gave up a 3 run HR as I’m typing this. Shohei walks in FA, Mike demands a trade, he would have 7/248 left on his deal covering ages 32-38. On the flip let’s say Jackson splits the year between AA/AAA. He doesn’t quite match his 160 wRC+ from Carolina, but more than holds his own as a 19 year old in the 130-140 range. Would you deal Chourio for Trout?
  14. sveumrules
    That 3-1 hack was far more egregious than anything he did or didn’t do on the bases the other day.
  15. sveumrules
    Now look at their ERAs. Spoiler alert…5.33 team ERA ranks 24th.
  16. sveumrules
    Sheffield maybe?
  17. sveumrules
    Same thing with the Renfroe trade. Sure, the actual return was Junk plus two, but it also opened the door for a cheaper, more versatile option (with higher upside, though less certainty) to be acquired in Anderson plus cleared the path for Wiemer.
  18. sveumrules
    Between the declining defense & going from one of the easier parks for LH power to one of the more difficult ones, Kolten definitely has his work cut out for him this year. Still feel like he is a mortal lock for a couple two tree WAR, but I guess time catches up to everybody eventually.
  19. sveumrules
    Some candidates from a pure value standpoint would be someone like Alcantara, under control at 5/70 for ages 27-31 if the team option is exercised. Manoah has been among the best pitchers in MLB since his call up with five years of control remaining. Strider, Framber, McClanahan are other young ace calibre pitchers with lots of control remaining. Adley would be tops on the position player side. Already up and performing at an elite level playing the most difficult position on the diamond with six years of team control remaining. Guys like JRam, JRod, Acuna or Wander that have reasonable long term deals would fit the bill too. Don’t really see any realistic scenario where Chourio is dealt, though, even if he struggles at AA this year. It’s just exceedingly rare & takes the perfect combination of conditions (generational talent Soto stuck on going nowhere Nats) to see guys traded with that level of surplus value.
  20. sveumrules
    Right now the various projections have the bottom three in the NLC with the following win totals… FanGraphs CHI (78) PIT (76) CIN (71) 538 CHI (77) PIT (73) CIN (70) BPro CHI (76) PIT (73) CIN (70) I’d still be selling on both, but they aren’t that far behind the Cubs for 3rd and a number of teams beat (or underachieve) their projections by eight plus wins every season so it’s not too far out there. The Reds on the other hand…
  21. sveumrules
    Could you link these splits? I can find monthly splits, or splits vs RHP, but nothing combining the two. Hiura had a 688 OPS and 47.6 K% over 42 PA when he was sent down on May 5th. That’s coming off a 72 wRC+ and 36.6 K% the two previous seasons. He had done nothing since 2019 to earn playing time over McCutchen. He was pretty hot upon his return, with a 1.298 OPS over 22 PA from May 18 to May 28, but cratered to a .537 OPS over his next 55 PA through June 25th. He only got 119 total PA over the first half of the season (prolly because of that 46.2 K%) so we’re talking a minuscule sample with alarming underlying indicators.
  22. sveumrules
    Team Pour It On
  23. sveumrules
    I believe Mark A is positioning the Brewers for sale...to Steve Cohen...for TEN BILLION DOLLARS
  24. sveumrules
    If everybody pans out (they very likely won’t) I think the 2024 OF could look something like this… LF: Sal CF: Chourio RF: Wiemer DH: Yelich That leaves 4th OF for Mitchell/Taylor with the other as a possible trade candidate.
  25. sveumrules
    Career journeyman and veteran players past their peak? Sounds a lot like the circa 1993-2004 Selig Brewers. Yeah, I think this team might be a scooch better than those ones. Awesome to see a great start from Turang, but it doesn’t really change my expectations at all. Maybe gives me a lil more confidence his wRC+ for the season will end up closer to 100 than to 80.
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