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DeRosa, Flores and Shehadi have pretty fun chemistry on MLB Central for some baseball background noise in the morning, but I have to turn it off when High Heat with Christopher Russo comes on. Between the grating voice, tweaked out muppet mannerisms and the amount of conviction he has for his horrendous takes its like the trifecta of terror for me.

Once I saw DeRosa was managing the US squad I had a feeling they were likely to underwhelm. He’s fine in the ex-player talking head role but I don’t see him as a particularly inspiring choice, especially replacing a legend like Leyland.

Carroll got $50M for his pre-FA seasons. Trea Turner, who pretty much maximized a similar skill set, just made something like $47M going year to year as a Super Two. Seems pretty fair to CC. If the DBacks pick up their option, Corbin sold his first three FA seasons for 3/84. I’m sure contracts will be nuts seven years out, but unless Carroll goes absolutely bonkers twixt now & then I have a hard time seeing him hit $40M annually in FA, but let’s say he could. That would mean he left $36M on the table for those first three FA seasons. Seems like a pretty fair trade off for $111M guaranteed.

Dude is clearly really good at baseball, but I wouldn’t want my team guaranteeing a hundred million dollars to someone with his injury history.

Edens, Dinan and Haslam (who rumor has it was brought in because Lasry didn’t want to pay the tax) have a combined net worth around $10B compared to around $700M for Attanassio. The Bucks revenues are also much more in line with the rest of the NBA due to central revenue sharing, where the Brewers lag considerably behind most of MLB in terms of revenues. It’s an apples to diamond encrusted platinum apples comparison.

Especially excited to see Yeison stateside. He put up pretty much the same kind of offensive line as Avina last year but with only a 23.9 K% versus a 34.7 K% for Avina.

It's time to talk only about the best of the best. Here are the teams the projections think stand the best chances of playing right through Halloween. Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports It's time to talk only about the best of the best. Here are the teams the projections think stand the best chances of playing right through Halloween. Let's quickly rehash this. I went through the FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus projected standings and Playoff Odds, and have placed the teams in reverse order based on an average of their numbers at both sites. I've also listed the projected payroll for each team, courtesy Cot's Contracts, a part of Prospectus. You can consult the previous two parts in this little series to catch up before plunging ahead. PART ONE PART TWO [DARKHORSE WORLD SERIES CONTENDERS] 7. Blue Jays (88 W | 71.9 P% | 5.3 WS% | $207M) Felt like Toronto and the Dodgers deserved their own mini-tier here, since their percentages are a notch above the other top playoff contenders, but not quite on par with the "legit" World Series contenders who have something like 57% combined World Series odds between them. 6. Dodgers (91 W | 78.1 P% | 6.6 WS% | $217M) The best regular season team in baseball over the last decade by no small margin with 73 more wins than the Yankees over that stretch. And yet, just one pandemic weirden-ed World Series to show for it. That this projection represents a step back for them compared to Dodgers teams of recent vintage speaks to just how dominant of an organization they are within the game. [LEGIT WORLD SERIES CONTENDERS] 5. Mets (94 W | 88.5 P% | 9.7 WS% | $345M) It's kinda crazy. You might think spending $75 million more on payroll than the second-splurgiest team, or almost $110 million more than the third- and fourth-splurgiest teams would project out to like 100 W | 99.9 P% | 15.0 WS% or something, but no. Pretty close though. Keep trying. 4. Padres (93 W | 89.2 P% | 10.8 WS% | $237M) San Diego is the other team out to prove that the new Moneyball is just good old-fashioned money. With Josh Hader and Juan Soto holding the next two tickets for the extension window, they might just be getting warmed up, too. They've got more money on the books for 2027 ($136 million) than a dozen teams do for 2023. 3. Braves (94 W | 89.9 P% | 11.1 WS% | $194M) The Braves have a bunch of guys signed to long-term deals, too, though most of them were pre-arbitration extensions so their money on the books for 2027 ($90 million) is only more than seven teams in 2023, and the players they are paying will be considerably younger than the Padres' high-salaried vets. 2. Astros (93 W | 86.8 P% | 12.3 WS% | $186M) I'm as surprised as you are. Defending World Series champions, best team in baseball over the last six years, the closest thing we've had to a modern dynasty since those 2009-16 Giants, but the computers like one team just a little bit more. 1. Yankees (94 W | 90.3 P% | 13.2 WS% | $271M) Seventeen years. From 1979 to 1995, the Yankees didn't win a single World Series. That is their longest stretch since buying some guy named George Herman off of a broke theatre producer. Over the last 13 years, they have won the second-most games in MLB; made the playoffs 10 times; never won fewer than 84 games in a full season; spent over $3 billion on payroll... and won zero World Series titles. It's hard work being a Yankees fan. How do they bear the deprivation? View full article

Because he's the oldest out of the three and projects to receive the smallest FA contract of the three.

Still kinda blows my mind that Ohtani even signed there in the first place. Like, was he really only considering AL teams on the West Coast but decided no Seattle because he didn't want to follow in Ichiro's footsteps and then no Oakland because they play in a dump and then all that was left was Anaheim?

People talk about the Brewers "wasting" Burnes & Woodruff when the they've won the 6th most games in MLB over the last five years. Since Trout's first full season in 2012 the Angels are 832-848, 17th in MLB. Since Ohtani's debut in 2018 they are 328-380, 21st in MLB. That is what "wasting" inner circle HOF talent actually looks like.

Yeah, for as underwhelming as only two Super Bowls might feel, the Packers have ostensibly been the 2nd best team in the NFL for the last 30 years with Favre and Rodgers under center. Maintaining that kind of performance over any extended period of time moving forward post-Rodgers will be incredibly unlikely, so it's just a matter of how far they fall. Could they win ten games next year and make the playoffs with Love at QB? Sure, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Definitely like Seattle more than the projections, personally. Seemed like their 2021 team played way over their heads to get to 90 wins, but the 2022 team felt a lot closer to an actual 90 win team talent wise. Angels & Rangers success is so tied up in Trout & deGrom, and as much as I'd love to see them both put up fully healthy peak calibre seasons, it just feels like a longshot at this point.

We're back, with more of our team-by-team tiered tour of the projection systems and playoff odds for 2023. As a reminder, the win totals and Playoff Odds listed below represent an average of the projections at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. The payroll figures are drawn from Cot's Contracts, a service now powered by Prospectus. If you haven't already done so, go back and check out Part One in this exercise, where we ran through the least relevant teams to this season's prospective pennant races. Today, we get into the meatier parts of the beast. [PLAYOFF HOPEFULS] 20. Marlins (80 W | 17.4 P% | 0.5 WS% | $90M) Miami is kinda like Pittsburgh, where they feel like they should be at the top of the tier below instead of the bottom of this tier, but the projections see a clear break between them and the Cubs in both wins and playoff odds. That's despite Miami being in the more difficult division. As many question marks as they have throughout the roster, their starting pitching (anchored by the reigning Cy Young winner, Sandy Alcántara) carries them an extra step farther than similar teams figure to go. 19. White Sox (79 W | 22.2 P% | 0.7 WS% | $178M) Pretty close in terms of Opening Day payroll with their crosstown rivals, but those three extra wins and being in a slightly weaker AL Central is enough to give them almost triple the playoff odds. This projection doesn't reflect the improved vibes the team will surely enjoy, just by having gotten shot of Tony La Russa. 18. Red Sox (80 W | 24.0 P% | 1.1 WS% | $176M) Going back to 2012, Boston has finished fifth in the AL East five times, first four times and second and third once each. This year, they are projected fourth by a margin of six or seven wins in either direction. Last time they finished fourth in the division was 1997. Definitely something to watch for if you're a fan of meaningless inanity. 17. Rangers (81 W | 26.7 P% | 1.0 WS% | $190M) Texas is in year seven of the current rebuild, with their 373-497 record coming in sixth-worst from 2017-22. Throwing around large amounts of cash has gotten them this far on the board. After a 2021 payroll of $95M (21st) resulting in 60 wins, their 2022 number was up to $142M (15th) and 68 wins. Jumping to $190M (ninth) this year is looking good for 13 projected wins or so on the computers. See how deGrom holds up, I guess. 16. Giants (82 W | 29.3 P% | 1.1 WS% | $183M) From 2009-16, San Francisco was about as close to a modern dynasty as it gets, racking up three World Series titles and the fifth-most regular-season wins during that stretch. From 2017-22, they've been kind of stuck in neutral, with their 431-439 record ranking 15th, and that's with a franchise-record 107 wins in 2021 propping things up. [PLAYOFF CONTENDERS] 15. Mariners (83 W | 39.4 P% | 1.9 WS% | $136M) The battle between Seattle, Texas and Los Angeles behind Houston in the AL West should be one of the tighter and more interesting races to follow this summer. Trader Jerry's squad has been the best of the bunch the last couple years, but they lag behind in payroll by $55-70 million, so the deck is stacked against them somewhat for the second place threepeat. 14. Angels (84 W | 47.8 P% | 2.2 WS% | $208M) Mike Trout has a pair of 10.5-WAR seasons already. Let's put him down for 11.0 WAR. Ohtani had 4.9 WAR as a hitter in 2021, and 6.2 WAR as a pitcher in 2022. Let's put him down for an even 12.0 WAR in 2023 on the eve of free agency. Heck, Rendon even had 7.1 WAR in 2019, I don't see why the stars can't align (these things always happen in threes) again in 2023. That's THIRTY WAR from three guys, Angels win 83 and miss playoffs. 13. Twins (85 W | 56.7 P% | 3.0 WS% | $148M) Minnesota's 407-565 record from 2011-16 was the second-worst mark in MLB. They've righted the ship considerably since, with their 451-419 record from 2017-22 coming in 10th, but if you think the Brewers' 1-7 record in their last eight playoff games is some kind of epic failure, the Twins have lost 18 straight postseason games stretching back to 2004. If the Twins win a playoff game (or gasp, series) this year, I might just make the Twin Cities trip to flip over a Prius or two myself. 12. Brewers (87 W | 60.6 P% | 3.8 WS% | $115M) Did somebody say the Brewers? The bad news is: There are six NL teams on the list ahead of Milwaukee; they all made the playoffs last year; and they all have projected payrolls between $60 and $230 million higher than the Brewers'. The good news: Last time a league's playoff field repeated was the 1998-99 AL, when only four teams got in. A playoff team from last year likely won't make it again this year, and the Brewers are the team best positioned to take that vacated spot. 11. Guardians (86 W | 61.4 P% | 4.2 WS% | $87M) Essentially a lower-budget Brewers, but in a division with the Twins as their main competition instead of the Cardinals. One of the best organizations out there at developing pitching, consistently running switch-hitter-heavy lineups with low strikeout rates. Terry Francona is one of the best in the business. 10. Rays (87 W | 62.5 P% | 4.2 WS% | $70M) Current cream of the small-market crop. Like Milwaukee or Cleveland, but keep moving the sliders into more difficult territory. "Oh, you guys play in the soft Central divisions with an extra $15-40 million, and still can't manage what we do in the AL East?", scoffed Tampa Bay. 9. Phillies (88 W | 63.6 P% | 3.2 WS% | $238M) This is probably the first one that feels low. But they were just in the World Series? And they signed Trea Turner? And they have the third-highest payroll in MLB? All affirmative. Also affirmative is that they had the fourth-highest payroll last year and barely squeaked in ahead of the calamitous Brewers. And that they had the fourth-highest payroll in 2021 and won 82 games. And that Bryce Harper is going to miss some significant number of games. The computer definitely seems to have removed emotion from this particular equation. 8. Cardinals (87 W | 64.4 P% | 3.9 WS% | $174M) These dang guys. No, seriously, like what the heck? What's even the point? Not only is Jordan Walker out here hitting a home run every other at-bat in Spring Training, they've probably got a couple two tree guys nobody ever heard of with fake-sounding video-game names that are either too out there (Lars Nootbaar) or too vanilla (Brendan Donovan) to be anything other than undeniable proof that we're all living in some kind of quantum simulation with a sick sense of humor. Cardinals Devil Magic could only take them so far, though. We'll finish this up with a look at the seven legitimate title contenders tomorrow. In the meantime: does this ranking feel right for the Brewers? Do you think their odds are meaningfully better or worse than the numbers suggest? Image courtesy of © GREG LOVETT/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK View full article

No Giannis, no Jrue, no problem. Middleton with a casual 24 points and 11 assists while his minutes ramped up to 30 for the first time since he returned to the rotation.

Yeah, seems like the Orioles definitely could have done more to supplement their young core this offseason. Finally crack .500 after half a decade as the worst team in baseball and the big acquisitions are Kyle Gibson, James McCann and Adam Frazier? During the last stretch of successful Orioles baseball (2012-16) they posted the 4th best record in MLB at 444-366 with OD payroll ranks of 12th, 16th, 15th, 14th and 9th. Pretty much the definition of a mid-market team. For Angelos to come out and say he hopes to emulate the success of the Rays, Guardians and Brewers (when he has much larger revenue streams than those teams) is about as snake-y as it gets. But then again, it's an Angelos.

The major playoff odds reports are out, from both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs. Let's take a tour of them, to get a sense of the landscape as Opening Day appears on the horizon. For each of these teams, I found the mean of their projected win totals and Playoff Odds on both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs. I've also included each team's projected payroll, according to Prospectus's Cot's Contracts. Lastly, I've broken them up into tiers. Today, we'll just look at the two lowest tiers--the teams the numbers say will be non-factors by September. [PLAYOFF NON-SHOTS] 30. Rockies (65 W | 0.0 P% | 0.0 WS% | $159M) From 2011-16, the Colorado Rockies went (I kid you not) 420-552, the third-worst record in MLB over that span. They made the postseason in each of 2017 & 2018, but their 239-306 record since then is the ninth-worst. Coors Field sure is beautiful, though. 29. Nationals (64 W | 0.1 P% | 0.0 WS% | $98M) Flags fly forever, but after winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals have gone 146-238. Only the Pirates own a worse record so far in the 2020s. The Nats have traded away Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell the last two years. They'll be paying Patrick Corbin (390 IP | -1.2 rWAR from 2020-22) and Stephen Strasburg (31 IP | -0.3 rWAR from 2020-22) a combined $59 million for the third straight season in 2023. 28. Athletics (66 W | 0.5 P% | 0.0 WS% | $55M) It's possible no team has been riding the waves quite like Oakland, ever since setting the MoneyBall mold from 1999-2006 (when they went 751-544, the third-best record over that span). The period from 2007-11 was down (381-428, seventh-worst), then back up from 2012-14 (278-208, second-best) before down again from 2015-17 (212-274, fourth-worst) and up once more from 2018-21 (316-230, fifth-best), before losing 100 games last year for the first time since 1979. Might be in Las Vegas by the time they come out of it this time around. 27. Reds (68 W | 0.8 P% | 0.0 WS% | $79M) Cincinnati's last full-season playoff appearance was in 2013, capping a stretch from 2010-13 where they went 357-291, seventh-best in MLB. Since then? Not so much. Their 594-762 record dating to 2014 is the third-worst in MLB. There are a handful of intriguing prospects nearing MLB, but ownership's comments the last couple offseasons don't offer much hope. Come for the Joey Votto farewell tour, I guess? 26. Tigers (68 W | 1.6 P% | 0.1 WS% | $118M) Detroit is over a half-decade into rebuilding, with their 341-526 record coming in second-worst since 2017, ahead of only Baltimore, who are at least showing some signs of (maybe(?)) breaking out of it (finally(!)(?)). Come for the Miguel Cabrera farewell tour, I guess? 25. Royals (68 W | 2.3 P% | 0.1 WS% | $87M) Another entry for the flags fly forever crowd. After winning the World Series in 1985, the Royals missed the playoffs every year from 1986-2013, posting the worst record in MLB among non-expansion teams. In 2014 and 2015, they went to two and won one World Series, followed it up with a pair of .500 seasons, and have gone 282-426 since, third-worst in MLB. [PLAYOFF LONG SHOTS] 24. Pirates (73 W | 3.1 P% | 0.0 WS% | $72M) No team has been worse than Pittsburgh (211-335) over the last four seasons, but hey, they are projected for five to nine more wins than the bottom half-dozen teams, and that is enough progress for me to put them at the bottom of this tier--instead of at the top of the bottom tier. 23. Orioles (75 W | 6.1 P% | 0.1 WS% | $65M) If we stretch it back to the last five seasons, Baltimore takes the worst team crown from the Pirates at 261-447, but the Orioles cracked .500 last year and have Adley Rutschman already looking like a stud, with Gunnar Henderson lined up next. The light at the end of their rebuild tunnel is a lumen or two brighter. 22. Diamondbacks (76 W | 7.6 P% | 0.1 WS% | $113M) Arizona made a big jump, winning 74 games in 2022 after notching only 52 victories in 2021, but those are the easy twenty wins to pick up. Tacking on another dozen or so to get into playoff contention with the formidable Dodgers and Padres ahead of you (and the sleeping Giants, too) is some next-level stuff. Lots of exciting young players, but the projections don't think 2023 is the year. 21. Cubs (76 W | 7.8 P% | 0.4 WS% | $179M) The North Siders are in year three of the rebuild (just don't tell Jed Hoyer that's what it is), and have bumped their projected payroll $36 million relative to 2022, but the projections are only seeing marginal gains. I know I'm supposed to automatically hate every Cub, but I've always had a soft spot for Dansby Swanson, and when I found out his dad's name is legitimately Cooter, that just sealed the deal. Do any of these teams belong a tier or two higher? Do any of them pose a threat to the Brewers? Let's hear your thoughts on the bigger picture of the coming MLB season. I'll be back tomorrow with some teams the projections view as more seriously competitive. Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports View full article

Last year Brewers catchers posted a 74 wRC+ (20th), while their DHs came in with a 95 wRC+ (19th). I don’t think anyone is expecting Contreras to repeat the 138 wRC+ he posted last year, but something around his 121 career mark with maybe 90 games behind the dish and another 40 or so at DH would be a huge boost to both spots.

They’re 16-1 in his last 17 games and he has a +7.2 on/off this year. He’s been plenty useful when on the court, even if the minutes are still ramping up,

Last two years Smith is at 89 ERA- | 104 FIP- | 99 xFIP- over 127 IP. Will’s 1.42 HR9 ranks 85th of 94 relievers with at least 100 IP over that span, and his K9 fell off from 11.5 in 2021 to 9.9 in 2022. Hope there is a bounce back in there for the Fresh Prince, but lotsa HR and declining Ks are bad indicators. Needs to get that 2018-19 slider back, +25.6 runs (1st) vs only +7.6 runs from 2021-22 (18th).

Adames and Swanson are in the same tier of SS, but with Adames two years out from free agency I’d say Dansby’s deal is more of a ceiling than a floor for Willy. I think a serious opening offer would be something like 7/151 (24: $13M | 25-30: $23M). Bump his salary from $8.7M this year to an even nine million and you can announce it as 8/160. Love Willy, and think his defense would be fine at 3B as he ages off SS into his thirties, but I’d be nervous giving that kind of money to someone with his plate discipline profile, personally. $49M a year from 25-28 is a lot of risk to tie up in Yelich’s back and Willy’s hack. He might not have Adames power profile, but if Turang’s glove is as good as advertised he should be a perfectly cromulent MLB SS at a fraction of the cost.

Apparently the rule is the player needs to be waived by 3/1 to be eligible for playoffs & Bucks are meeting with Dragic as a possibility. Believe Leonard got a second ten day too, so he could be in line for a full time spot as a big who can shoot from deep. Nerlens Noel is out there too if they wanted more of a rim protector instead. Also read they want to keep the second two way open for flexibility since there won’t really be many minutes anyway. Jrue/Jevon/Goran? Grayson/Pat/Wes Khris/Jingles/Marjon Giannis/Jae/Thanasis Brook/Bobby/Leonard? Love what I’ve seen from AJ Green too, think I saw if they wait until the offseason to give him an actual roster spot they could sign him to a longer contract vs if they converted him before the season ends.

WAR isn’t intended as a be all tell all stat & people who think it is are misunderstanding. It is intended to start conversations, not end them. The real purpose is to help us understand the game better by questioning our pre-existing assumptions then investigating to see if those assumptions were correct or not.