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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Bucks RealGM board is a good read. Pretty sure things like Bag Night during the Kohl era and the Winning Takes Balls billboard originated over there. Lots of knowledgeable diehards that have been through the thick and thin posting for like 20 years now.
  2. sveumrules
    Something to keep in mind about batting average is that AmFam is one of the hardest stadiums to hit singles in, last playing above average for singles in 2014. Here are AmFam’s individual season StatCast Park Factors for singles… 2022: 87 (30th) 2021: 97 (20th) 2019: 91 (29th) 2018: 95 (23rd) 2017: 98 (18th) 2016: 91 (28th) 2015: 94 (23rd) 2014: 102 (8th) Meanwhile, here are individual season HR ratings at AmFam over that same time frame… 2022: 117 (9th) 2021: 103 (12th) 2019: 105 (11th) 2018: 108 (11th) 2017: 109 (11th) 2016: 113 (10th) 2015: 134 (2nd) 2014: 119 (6th) I like that the FO has appeared to trend increasingly towards more contact oriented hitters recently, but it might end up being a suboptimal strategy at AmFam.
  3. sveumrules
    Saw on MLBTR today that Max Fried reported “no anger, animosity, or anything” after losing his Arby’s hearing. You’d think he’d be extra mad since the Braves have handed out $735M in pre-FA extensions to Olson, Riley, Acuna, Albies, Murphy, Strider and Harris II over the last few years without cutting him in on the action, but nah. More like Max Chill.
  4. sveumrules
    By career numbers. Burnes isn’t a slam dunk over even Woodruff right now… Sheets: 1428 IP | 87 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 26.7 rWAR | 31.9 fWAR Higuera: 1380 IP | 86 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 27.4 rWAR | 26.7 fWAR Burnes: 515 IP | 76 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 12.8 rWAR | 14.3 fWAR Woody: 613 IP | 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 16.3 rWAR | 14.6 fWAR On a per inning basis, sure Corbin is the best, but his quantity is just too far behind Sheets/Higuera for me to put him in the #1 spot. Even by peak season I’m not sure he comes out ahead of Higuera or Sheets… 86 Higuera: 248 IP | 66 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 7.9 rWAR | 5.1 fWAR 04 Sheets: 237 IP | 62 ERA- | 59 FIP- | 7.0 rWAR | 8.0 fWAR 21 Burnes: 167 IP | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- | 6.3 rWAR | 7.5 fWAR
  5. sveumrules
    Correct. Here are the full season OD payrolls (with MLB rank) from the last fifteen years… 2023: $115M (20th) 2022: $132M (19th) 2021: $99M (19th) 2019: $123M (17th) 2018: $99M (26th) 2017: $63M (30th) 2016: $64M (30th) 2015: $104M (20th) 2014: $104M (16th) 2013: $89M (19th) 2012: $98M (13th)2011: $84M (17th)2010: $90M (17th)2009: $80M (17th)2008: $81M (15th) Outside of sneaking into the bottom of the top half twice (2008, 2014) and running payrolls in line with their market size for three years from 2016-18, they’ve been between 16th and 20th in OD payroll the other ten years.
  6. sveumrules
    It takes two teams to play a game, so fifty percent of all local TV contracts should have been pooled for redistribution from the outset. Now that the RSN model is predictably crumbling…oh, let’s look into doing something about it. The wealthiest teams have been treating the luxury tax as a soft cap for decades, but here comes Cohen blowing past it & rubbing their noses in it…well, we can’t let that keep happening. Don’t get me wrong, it’s great they are finally taking it to committee & I hope they eventually wise up and go to something closer to the more equitable NBA/NFL models, but MLB is a molasses covered dinosaur so they’ll probably use this as the central issue to draw out the next couple two tree CBA negotiations (when it should have already been in effect for a couple two tree CBAs by now).
  7. sveumrules
    2021 Burnes won CY on the back of historic peripherals (38 FIP-) and top tier run prevention (58 ERA-), but between a cautious workload coming off a pandemic shortened season and missing a couple weeks to COVID he came up just shy of the old school benchmarks at “only” 28 GS | 167 IP. Add it all up and you get something like 7.5 fWAR and 6.3 rWAR. 2022 saw him hit those old school benchmarks at 33 GS | 202 IP, but both his peripherals (79 FIP-) and run prevention (73 ERA-) slipped notably, some might say regressed to the mean, resulting in 4.6 fWAR | 5.3 rWAR. Still a Top Ten SP, just not thee very best. I’d never expect anyone to repeat a 38 FIP- because that’s like peak Pedro stuff, but for Corbin to take the next step in 2023 he needs to match that 2022 workload and shave around ten points each off last year’s FIP- and ERA- marks. A lot will probably come down to his HR rate, which was historically good in 2021 (31 HR9+), but a lot closer to league average (93 HR9+) last year.
  8. sveumrules
    Yup. Meanwhile Brewers have won the 6th most games over the last 5 years, 8th most over the last 15, apparently on accident because Mark A is too cheap or doesn’t wear big boy pants or whatever. Reality is, even if we did get a new owner odds are they would prolly end up more like Nutting, Castellini, Monfort, Sherman, Fisher, Dolan, Sternberg, Kendrick, Moreno etc than some kind of white knight willing to throw around their cash like Cohen or Seidler. Look at the Twins just up the road. They are a larger market, with a way richer owner (like $3.5B vs $700M), in an equally mediocre division. Yet they still run payrolls in the teens/twenties, have won fewer regular season games than the Brewers (13th last 5, 19th last 15) and haven’t won a playoff game since 2004.
  9. sveumrules
    No doubt, replace Burnes with a worse pitcher and the pitching gets worse. I don’t think anyone is arguing otherwise. There’s also no doubt the offense was 10th in runs scored and that isn’t pathetic. Brewers position players had 6122 PAs last year, only 165 of those PAs went to players with negative WAR. Of the top nine players by PAs, seven had a wRC+ over 100 (despite their batting averages) and the two who didn’t were just a hair below average at 98 (Cutch) and 96 (Jace). That’s how a team ends up 8th in WAR and 10th in runs scored without any obvious superstar level performance.
  10. sveumrules
    The Brewers offense was 10th in runs scored and 8th in WAR. The Brewers pitching was 16th in runs allowed and 14th in rWAR. The above average offense wasn't quite enough to carry our average pitching to the postseason. Nothing pathetic about any of that, just baseball happening.
  11. sveumrules
    Haven't had a chance to dig in yet, but FanGraphs has updated their 2023 Draft Rankings with scouting reports for 69 (nice) prospects... SAUSAGE LINK
  12. sveumrules
    Not sure where the $104M is coming from, Roster Resource has us at $120M and Cots $115M. Either way, 2019 isn’t any kind of baseline, it was always going to be an outlier due to the weirdly soft market plopping Yaz & Moose on our doorstep for one year deals. There weren’t many deals like that in this year’s market.
  13. sveumrules
    The Brewers reached agreements with all their other Arby’s eligible players. That indicates to me that Burnes and his camp were the ones unwilling to compromise and meet somewhere in the middle, instead preferring to go to the hearing. They gambled, lost and on top of it all Burnes got a glimpse behind the curtain at the ugly realities of the arbitration process. Sounds like somewhat of a careful what you wish for to me.
  14. sveumrules
    Right, the idea is that historically DH have been players who were so bad in the field that the only way to get their bat in the lineup was via the DH. The large negative positional adjustment for DH is a means of accounting for that. Take someone like David Ortiz, for his career BRef has him -16 in limited time at 1B plus -204 in position adjustment playing mostly DH for a total of -220 on defense. Someone like Manny Ramirez was a horrendous fielder. He played mostly LF (-105 positional) badly (-129 fielding) for -224 of defense. Sheffield would be another example. He played almost 4,000 innings at 3B plus another 800 at SS before becoming a corner OF so he only comes in with a -77 positional adjustment. He couldn't field any of them at -195 fielding runs for a total of -272 on defense. Being able to DH his whole career and never see the field would have probably bought Sheff a half dozen wins despite the massive negative positional adjustment.
  15. sveumrules
    Winker’s career high for PAs is 547 in 2022 and his career high for wRC+ is 147 in 2021. Last year Ohtani had 569 PAs with a 146 wRC+ as a DH and was credited with 3.3 WAR. If Winker can match or top his career bests in both PAs and wRC+, while playing as little as possible in the field to drag down his value, that is around his ceiling. Short of going off for like 600 PAs at a 160 wRC+ (that’d be cool) or something crazy like that, I don’t see a QO in Winker’s future.
  16. sveumrules
    Seems like Jrue’s whistle suffers somewhat because he just plays basketball instead of haranguing the officials up and down the court all game like lotsa guys do. Even through contact dude is just unfazed, so I think the refs swallow it cuz they assumed nothing happened and he isn’t flailing around like one of those used car lot wind dancers.
  17. sveumrules
    87-88 win projection feel about right to me. More goes right than wrong, that’s mid-90’s in wins and a good bet to win the division or a WC. More goes wrong than right, they’ll likely end up closer to .500 & maybe even sell at the deadline. Pretty much gonna come down to health of key players, how the various rookies perform and how the bullpen shakes out after Devin.
  18. sveumrules
    Would have been nice to win more convincingly for sure, but also would have had them in regulation if that prayer from Hauser didn’t drop, or Giannis didn’t go 11/19 from the line. Jrue going off for 40 on 8/12 from three plus a big steal/dunk (that I thought should’ve been an And1 too) down the stretch was prolly his best game of the year. I’ll take an 11 game winning streak any way it comes, but to do it with Bobby out & Khris still coming off the bench on a 25 minute limit makes it a lil more impressive for me.
  19. sveumrules
    Raw OPS does not adjust for park factors. It is harder to hit in Seattle than it is in Milwaukee, that is why Winker comes out ahead of Cutch in both OPS+ and wRC+ despite Andrew having a .012 edge in raw OPS. The main reason McCutchen has the edge in WAR is because he posted +4 fielding runs in his limited OF time, 434 innings. The Mariners for some reason decided to play Winker in the field for 972 innings last year where he posted -16 fielding runs. Assuming the Brewers play Winker minimally on the grass it will be a notable boost to his WAR.
  20. sveumrules
    Yup. Innings with position players pitching tend to take longer due to everybody teeing off on them & MLB want to shave as much time as possible off that average game length. Rendon hitting that lefty bomb was hilarious though.
  21. sveumrules
    They’ve definitely lost a quantity of relievers, but what about their quality? Suter (66 IP | 93 ERA- | +0.38 WPA) Bxbrgr (64 IP | 73 ERA- | +1.04 WPA) Gott (45 IP | 102 ERA- | -0.65 WPA) Hader (34 IP | 105 ERA- | +0.76 WPA) Gustave (28 IP | 95 ERA- | -0.29 WPA) Perdomo (23 IP | 94 ERA- | +0.37 WPA) Rogers (23 IP | 135 ERA- | -1.02 WPA) Kelley (23 IP | 150 ERA- | -0.57 WPA) Thats 308 IP that (outside of Boxberger) was mediocre to bad with a net Win Probability Added of essentially zero.
  22. sveumrules
    Brewers ended up 10th in runs scored (725) last year. Padres (705 | 13th), Guardians (698 | 15th), Mariners (690 | 18th) and Rays (666 | 21st) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Even the vaunted Phillies with big money bats like Harper, Schwarber, Castellanos and JTR only scored 22 more runs (747 | 8th) than the Brewers last year. The Brewers offense may have been regularly consistent and often anemic, but multiple teams made the playoffs with offenses that were more irregular and anemic. All twelve playoff teams surrendered fewer than the Brewers 688 R (16th).
  23. sveumrules
    Obviously just a one year sample, but the Brewers went 42-34 against the NLC last year at 9-10 (STL, CHC), 11-8 (PIT) and 13-6 (CIN). Beat up on the PIT and CHC like they should have and there are the two wins that would have gotten them into the playoffs instead of PHI. Giants went 33-43 against the NLW at 4-15 (LAD), 6-13 (SDP), 9-10 (ARI) and 14-5 (COL). Only playing 52 games each instead of 76 against those respective slates of opponents will have an impact.
  24. sveumrules
    One possibility is maybe the evened out schedule? Brewers will have fewer games against the Reds, Pirates and to a lesser extent Cubs. Giants will have fewer games against the Padres and Dodgers.
  25. sveumrules
    The last time a league's playoff field repeated was the AL in 1998/99 when NYY, BOS, CLE and TEX took all four postseason spots in consecutive years. Even during the post-Expansion/pre-Wild Card era (1969-93) there were only five repeat league playoff fields and that was when you only needed two teams to achieve it. I'm not a mathmetologist, but the odds of all six of ATL, NYM, PHI, STL, LAD and SDP repeating as NL playoffs teams next year is probably quite a bit smaller than what it looks like on the surface or feels like in one's gut.
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