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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Lou Brock has a number of things contributing to his low WAR. First would be that despite his speed, he was never considered good enough to be a regular CF. Playing LF his whole career comes with a -108 positional adjustment. Total Zone thinks he was -51 fielding runs to boot, further dragging down his value. If he was an average CF, that would add about 20 WAR. But he was a below average LF. The other main thing holding him back was lack of walks (79 BB+) and power (94 ISO+). 2,247 of his 3,023 career hits were singles. Even his speed doesn’t add up to as much value as people think comes with being the one time stolen base king, because his success rate (75.3%) was so low compared to other great runners like Rickey (80.1%), Raines (84.7%), Coleman (82.8%), Morgan (81.0%), Lofton (79.5%), Ichiro (81.3%), etc.
  2. sveumrules
    Bucks, last 16 games: 16-0 Rockets, last 78 games: 16-62
  3. sveumrules
    Looks like both had three F- and one F. Other grades were... ARI: A, B+. B+, F WAS: A+, C+, D, D+
  4. sveumrules
    ZiPS has him at 132 G | 579 PA | 82 wRC+ | +1.6 BSR | +9.2 DEF shaking out to 1.9 WAR, which is more or less “average” production. I’d probably take the under on the G/PA this year but the rest seems pretty reasonable. Get that wRC+ up into the nineties, or beat the BSR/DEF by a half dozen runs or so, and you’re probably up around 2.5 WAR. Do them both and Brice could post a sneaky 3.0 WAR. I wouldn’t bet on it in his rookie season, but that is essentially the path to getting there.
  5. sveumrules
    Yelich definitely appears to fall closer to Rodgers than Giannis in terms of personality & presumably leadership style as well.
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah, 267/378/390 (120 wRC+) in 406 PAs in the lead off spot last year was the best he’s looked post knee cap. If Yelich can put up a mostly healthy season around that level of production this year (maybe even add a scooch of batting average) you’re talking about something like a 3 WAR LF, which might not be sexy or garner any MVP votes, but is at least in the neighborhood of breaking even on his salary.
  7. sveumrules
    Bucks, last 14 games: 14-0 Rockets, last 67 games: 13-54
  8. sveumrules
    Eh, depends on how big the share is & what kind of power comes with it. Before buying the Browns, Haslam bought into the Steelers ownership group to get a peek behind the curtain. Could be a similar situation here. Headlines on this are terrible, too, but I guess “Haslam Buys Bucks for $3.5B” grabs the eyeballs better than “Haslam Buys Unspecified Share of Bucks at $3.5B Valuation”
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, Machado total outlay ends up at 15/470 with this new money added onto the original deal. Soto already turned down 14/440 from the Nats apparently and will be hitting FA going into his age 26 season. Gotta think his target is 15/600 which would be $40M per year through age 40.
  10. sveumrules
    Had 6/180 remaining, so essentially 5/170 for his age 36-40 seasons.
  11. sveumrules
    Quero, Gasser and Hendry each land on FanGraphs picks to click for 2024. While Chourio (18), Turang (51) and Frelick (96) all check in on the stats-based ZiPS list.
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, I don’t think anyone disagrees that the Brewers could spend more on payroll, but the questions essentially boil down to a) how much more and b) what would potentially be both the short & long term benefits & drawbacks of doing so. Looking at Cots, their highest OD payroll rank was 13th at a then franchise record $98M in 2012. They won 83 games. The year before they won 96 games with an $83M OD payroll ranking 17th. If they wanted to run the 13th highest OD payroll this year they’d have to top the White Sox at $178M. The Cardinals are 15th at $174M. Given those teams have considerably larger income streams than the Brewers it seems unrealistic to expect them to spend an extra $60M on payroll. And that’s just to get to the middle. Maybe they could get up around the Mariners at $136M (18th), that’s only like a $20M jump. Who could they have signed? Beat the Josh Bell deal? Sign a couple of the one year reliever specials and hope to strike gold? Those are marginal upgrades at best, hardly commensurate with the degree of consternation over the payroll.
  13. sveumrules
    You may be putting too much emphasis on 26 plate appearances taken by an 18 year old in AA. "18 year old in AA" tells one pretty much all they need to know.
  14. sveumrules
    Hard not to be excited about the state of the farm right now. Chourio as the possible superstar at the top. Mitchell already got his first taste of MLB with Frelick, Turang, Wiemer, Gasser not far behind. Quero, Black, Brown Jr. & Misiorowski as the next wave of intrigue rounding out the Top 10. Then you’ve got the 11-20 guys posted the last couple days plus I think I counted at least a dozen more who received votes in that range on the voting thread but didn’t make the final list. Shaping up to be a fun summer for Link Report followers.
  15. sveumrules
    Nice interview with Frelick over at FanGraphs today. Also had Chourio (7), Turang (65), Sal (68) and Wiemer (91) in their Top 100.
  16. sveumrules
    I find it quite easy and enjoyable being a Brewers fan, personally.
  17. sveumrules
    Yup. Like it or not, the franchise record OD payrolls in 2019 and 2022 are what the Brewers going "all in" looks like. On the bright side, we won the division in 2018 with a $91M OD payroll and in 2021 with a $99M OD payroll. Brewers ranking 6th in wins over the last five years or 8th in wins over the last fifteen is a pretty strong indicator to me that they haven't been too limited by whatever perceived underspending there may have been.
  18. sveumrules
    FA SP are stacked for 24/25. Burnes, Woody, Wheeler, Buehler, Bieber, Fried, Glasnow, Scherzer (if his arm hasn’t fallen off)
  19. sveumrules
    I wish Corbin won his case. Until deGrom can crack 25 GS/150 IP again, he’s the best pitcher in baseball. He’s the most irreplaceable player on the team. In the grand scheme of things, he’s worth exponentially more than that 700K he didn’t get. But at the same time, that’s just how arbitration works and has worked for decades. The Brewers know it, Burnes knows it, his agent knows it, McCalvy knows it, fans should know it by now too. If you don’t want to go through it, do what it takes to settle. If a compromise can’t be reached, handle the result win or loss like a professional. I understand having an emotional reaction. But I don’t chalk up comments made by Burnes or Hader or Lauer or wall punching Williams or did him a favor Cain as anything more than that, emotional reactions in a moment of disappointment. You want to have an unbeatable case in Arby’s next year? Win another CY and top it off with a WS MVP.
  20. sveumrules
    March 30th.
  21. sveumrules
    Yup, problem was they were only 20th in PAs with RISP. They need to better get RISP.
  22. sveumrules
    For a single season I’d still have 04 Benny with 237 IP | 62 ERA- | 59 FIP- | 7.0 rWAR | 8.0 fWAR as more dominant than 21 Burnes at 167 IP | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- | 6.3 rWAR | 7.5 fWAR. Corbin had the historic FIP, but Benny threw 70 more IP which gives him the edge in both flavors of WAR. Burnes rate stats also benefitted from the luxury of being pulled early because of the dominant pen behind him, Sheets had to be the dominant pen himself. No doubt, Burnes is the best pitcher in MLB over the last three seasons at 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR, but if we’re talking multi year runs of dominance 1986-88 Higuera came in at 737 IP | 71 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 21.5 rWAR | 17.7 fWAR. Teddy was “only” the 2nd best pitcher in baseball behind Roger Clemens for those three full seasons & not as good on a per inning basis as Corbin, but doing it for 300+ additional frames makes it a more dominant run for me as of now. I’d prolly put Burnes ahead with one more CY calibre season though.
  23. sveumrules
    It’s not a guess. It’s based on every player’s (both Brewers and opponents) collective performance in AmFam for that season versus those same players’ collective performance in all other parks for that same season. There are also columns for K/BB because different stadiums have exerted observed effects in those areas over numerous seasons of results with changing player pools. The most extreme example being Coors which is bright red across the board on Three Year Rolling except for the solid blue line for K and lighter blue line for BB. Yes, as singles become less common the sample size influencing that specific park factor will necessarily be smaller and subject to greater year over year variation as visible in the OP. That’s why (similar to defensive metrics or reliever stats or platoon splits or even just player performance in general) it’s best to look at multiple seasons to get a more reliable idea of what is going on.
  24. sveumrules
    Burnes couldn't replicate it either. 20/21: 226 IP | 55 ERA- | 40 FIP- | 9.7 rWAR | 9.9 fWAR 2022: 202 IP | 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- | 5.3 rWAR | 4.6 fWAR
  25. sveumrules
    The numbers jump around considerably year to year because every season sees a different array of players with a different array of results. The ball changing year to year (and even within any given year) plays a large roll too. League average OPS has jumped around pretty considerably over the same time frame from 711 (in 2014) to 733 to 750 to 762 to 740 to 769 to 739 to 706 (in 2022), so components thereof doing the same, especially when isolated to a tiny sample of only 81 games at one stadium isn't really that out of the ordinary. This is the methodology quoted on the StatCast page... "Statcast park effects show the observed effect of each displayed stat based on the events in the selected park. Each number is set so that “100” is average for that metric, and the park-specific number is generated by looking at each batter and pitcher, controlled by handedness, and comparing the frequency of that metric in the selected park compared to the performance of those players in other parks." Here is the full array of single season data for AmFam going back to 2002. If you click over to "Three Year Rolling: Yes" it smooths out the results considerably as they encompass more data.
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