sveumrules

Better health from Peralta, Houser and Woodruff (2021: 13.6 rWAR | 2022: 5.2 rWAR) could net them a pretty healthy jump. Not having Hader melt down for two months (-1.53 WPA from 6/7 to 7/29) or running old man Cain (-1.76 WPA) out there could yield a couple two tree win improvement just by doing nothing too.

Yeah, Winker at 8.25 million in his last season before FA, Toro at 1.4 projected Arby's with four seasons of team control remaining.

Murphy/Jansen trade or Contreras/Vasquez signing incoming any moment now.

Just glancing over the Shift splits on FanGraphs it looks like league average was 77 wRC+ in 2021 and 80 wRC+ in 2022. Yelich actually fared alright with a 103 wRC+ in 559 shifted PAs from 2021-22. Guys who look like they could maybe stand to gain the most over their 2021-22 shifted results would be Rowdy (571 PAs | 42 wRC+), Tyrone (676 PAs | 58 wRC+), Urias (276 PAs | 62 wRC+) and Caratini (311 PAs | 57 wRC+). Wouldn’t be surprised either if Singleton getting added to the 40 Man had something to do with Brewers brass thinking his batted ball profile will benefit from the shift removal.

Not sure this deserves its own thread given our odds, but totally forgot the new CBA included a draft lottery for the top six picks, which will be going down on Dec 6th, the day before the Rule 5 draft. What a year to miss the playoffs!! Looks like the Brewers odds are 0.2% to land pick #1 slowly rising all the way up to 0.5% to get pick #6. If the Cubs, Giants or Red Sox jump into the top six out it could be the most attention the MLB draft has gotten since Bryce Harper.

Not sure if there is a way to break it down by batted ball type, but StatCast has Yelich 89th percentile on average exit velocity, 98th percentile on max exit velocity and 90th percentile on hard hit percentage in 2022.

Mitchell was injured and didn’t play from May 14th through July 6th. They also finished two games out of the WC since Philly had the tiebreaker.

Yeah, there are a few factors at play with the Anderson/Eflin contracts being closer than ERA might indicate. Anderson is four years older and coming off a breakout season with one of the best teams at maximizing pitcher results (2.93 ERA | 3.54 FIP for LAD since 2020). Will he be able to maintain that level of performance as he ages with a notably less savvy organization (4.37 ERA | 4.17 FIP for LAA since 2020)? Eflin is kind of on the flip side as a younger pitcher with possible untapped upside. Out of 135 pitchers with at least 200 IP since 2020, his 0.51 differential between his ERA (4.08) and FIP (3.57) is the 13th largest in MLB. On a team level since 2020, the Phillies (4.33 ERA | 3.96 FIP) have been the 2nd worst team at living up to their peripherals. The only team worse has been COL (5.06 ERA | 4.54 FIP) and they have Coors to contend with. The Rays (3.55 ERA | 3.77 FIP) conversely have been the 4th best team at getting their pitchers to beat their peripherals. Eflin looks like a better bet to live up to his deal for me.

Davis was on the team from June 18th through August 24th, receiving the 10th most PAs over that stretch. With positive defensive and base running value FanGraphs had him at 0.5 WAR, and what few hits he got were somewhat timely with a +0.19 WPA. The player he replaced was at -0.5 WAR and -1.76 WPA. Brewers with notable negative WPAs during that same 6/18 to 8/24 time frame included Ashby (-1.13), Jace (-1.01), Hader (-0.95), Tyrone (-0.92), Alexander (-0.90), Adrian (-0.79), Caratini (-0.74), Strzelecki (-0.57), Omar (-0.46), Bush (-0.45), Urias (-0.44), Chi Chi (-0.37), Jandel (-0.32) and McGee (-0.29). The idea that Davis cost us anything doesn't have much of an objective case. In 2021, Brewers pitchers tallied +16.91 WPA (2nd). In 2022 they only managed +5.21 WPA (12th). When divvying up blame for why the Brewers missed the playoffs in 2022, that gets the biggest slice of the pie.

Hasn’t been much to complain about so far ? ? If Bucks we’re like 10-10 instead of 15-5 the thread would have another couple two tree pages easy. Currently 16th in ORtg with Giannis putting up his worst efficiency in like five years. Will be interesting to see how much Middleton’s return helps those numbers over the rest of the season.

Pena is another great example, played zero games at AA and thirty games at AAA. Even with such little high minors experience, the Astros let Carlos Correa walk to give Jeremy the job on a team with World Series aspirations.

Kwan had zero MLB experience, less than 100 games above A ball and didn’t make any of BA, MLB or BPro’s Top 100 prospects entering 2022. Maybe the Guardians weren’t looking to contend, but they won their division. I won’t be whining about anything come April because I understand there is a wide range of potential outcomes and my opinion has zero influence over which eventually comes to fruition.

If all else fails maybe the password for the Astros proprietary database is still Eckstein123

If Devanney gets selected, doesn’t get returned before opening day, sticks with the acquiring club all season and has a modicum of MLB success while the Brewers struggle with IF depth, sure it was a mistake. If Cam doesn’t get selected, the Brewers didn’t dodge a bullet or get lucky, they read the room the correctly.

Renfroe (+5.7 wRAA) was our best hitter vs LHP, but we presumably won’t have Hiura (-2.9 wRAA) and Cain (-6.6 wRAA) dragging things down either. Just on Cain vs Renfroe the floor has raised more than the ceiling dropped. Yandy Diaz (144 wRC+ over 525 PAs vs LHP since 2019) would be my preferred lefty masher acquisition.

FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE

FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE

Vazquez at catcher. Projected for 3/27 by MLBTR. Since 2019 is 8th in catcher WAR at 6.8. More of a defensive backstop with +22 DRS (3rd) and +20.7 FRM (4th), though his 95 wRC+ is still above average for the position. Could also see Brantley as an option in the DH/5th OF role McCutchen had last year. Projected for 1/15 by MLBTR. Ross Stripling (projected 2/18 by MLBTR) might also be in our price range and had a nice bounce back season with Toronto last year. Has that LAD pedigree and has the versatility to start or come out of the pen.

Checking the splits leaderboards since 2019 to get a decent sample, here are the players with the biggest L/R splits. Some of these guys do other things like add value on defense, or even hit RHP okay, but their values are still largely buoyed by their PAs vs LHP with the percentage in parentheses being their wRAA vs LHP divided by their total RAR. Albert Pujols (315.9%) 524 PAs vs L | 140 wRC+ | +25.9 wRAA 831 PAs vs R | 81 wRC+ | -19.7 wRAA Bobby Dalbec (111.9%) 330 PAs vs L | 128 wRC+ | 13.2 wRAA 568 PAs vs R | 85 wRC+ | -6.0 wRAA Andrew McCutchen (94.5%) 494 PAs vs L | 140 wRC+ | +27.5 wRAA 1163 PAs vs R | 91 wRC+ | -8.0 wRAA JD Martinez (75.6%) 596 PAs vs L | 159 wRC+ | +47.7 wRAA 1527 PAs vs R | 108 wRC+ | +25.7 wRAA Hanser Alberto (69.7%) 512 PAs vs L | 126 wRC+ | +18.9 wRAA 683 PAs vs R | 60 wRC+ | -32.2 wRA Alec Bohm (68.0%) 355 PAs vs L | 137 wRC+ | +17.2 wRAA 873 PAs vs R | 79 wRC+ | -17.9 wRAA Rhys Hoskins (65.5%) 567 PAs vs L | 160 wRC+ | +45.5 wRAA 1438 PAs vs R | 106 wRC+ | +18.2 wRAA Darin Ruf (65.3%) 388 PAs vs L | 137 wRC+ | +18.1 wRAA 412 PAs vs R | 97 wRC+ | -0.7 wRAA AJ Pollock (57.1%) 440 PAs vs L | 150 wRC+ | +27.5 wRAA 1061 PAs vs R | 98 wRC+ | +0.1 wRAA Jordan Luplow (52.3%) 434 PAs vs L | 132 wRC+ | +18.7 wRAA 345 PAs vs R | 80 wRC+ | -8.1 wRAA Austin Slater (52.1%) 515 PAs vs L | 141 wRC+ | +26.9 wRAA 412 PAs vs R | 81 wRC+ | -9.8 wRAA Kyle Farmer (50.1%) 374 PAs vs L | 129 wRC+ | +17.3 wRAA 1005 PAs vs R | 71 wRC+ | -24.2 wRAA Mike Brosseau (42.7%) 334 PAs vs L | 127 wRC+ | +10.0 wRAA 235 PAs vs R | 84 wRC+ | -5.5 wRAA Tommy Pham (42.3%) 540 PAs vs L | 129 wRC+ | +20.3 wRAA 1422 PAs vs R | 94 wRC+ | -8.8 wRAA Tom Murphy (41.8%) 315 PAs vs L | 154 wRC+ | +20.0 wRAA 333 PAs vs R | 68 wRC+ | -14.9 wRAA Looking at this list it seems like only hitting LHP has been the difference between AAAA and MLB for guys like Murphy, Brosseau, Slater, Luplow, Ruf and Alberto while it has helped guys like JDM, Bohm, Hoskins, Pollock, Farmer and Pham to get more regular PT than their vs RHP splits have maybe warranted.

I wouldn’t be surprised if OD payroll is $100M or $150M or anywhere in between. (ok, I’ll be kinda surprised if it ends up at $150M) I’d say general fan sentiment has been trending down since the 2021 playoffs, with the Hader trade and missing the playoffs this year compounding things further. The only two things I can see reversing that trend are having another Yelich/Cain “big moves” kind of offseason to drum up excitement or making a deep postseason run. Doing both would be ideal. One might even help facilitate the other. I don’t think extending one of Burnes, Woody or Adames really moves the fan excitement needle much since they were going to be here next year anyway. Even trading for outside help is risky because the same prospects who aren’t good enough to replace Renfroe will somehow also be too much to give up for whoever we get in return. For me personally, a splashy offseason at the outer reaches of feasibility would be extending one of Adames/Woody, trading for Sean Murphy and signing Jose Abreu (which likely would put payroll in franchise record territory again), though I feel like that still wouldn’t quite clear the all-in threshold for many. Trading for Yandy Diaz then signing Christian Vazquez and Michael Brantley is probably a lot more realistic, but that definitely isn’t selling any season ticket packages.

I wouldn’t be surprised if OD payroll is $100M or $150M or anywhere in between. (ok, I’ll be kinda surprised if it ends up at $150M) I’d say general fan sentiment has been trending down since the 2021 playoffs, with the Hader trade and missing the playoffs this year compounding things further. The only two things I can see reversing that trend are having another Yelich/Cain “big moves” kind of offseason to drum up excitement or making a deep postseason run. Doing both would be ideal. One might even help facilitate the other. I don’t think extending one of Burnes, Woody or Adames really moves the fan excitement needle much since they were going to be here next year anyway. Even trading for outside help is risky because the same prospects who aren’t good enough to replace Renfroe will somehow also be too much to give up for whoever we get in return. For me personally, a splashy offseason at the outer reaches of feasibility would be extending one of Adames/Woody, trading for Sean Murphy and signing Jose Abreu (which likely would put payroll in franchise record territory again), though I feel like that still wouldn’t quite clear the all-in threshold for many. Trading for Yandy Diaz then signing Christian Vazquez and Michael Brantley is probably a lot more realistic, but that definitely isn’t selling any season ticket packages.

Bucks trailed by 11 after a lethargic first half. Now up 14 heading into Q4 after hanging a 35-10 on CLE in Q3.

The Brewers offense scored 725 runs this season. SDP (705), CLE (698), SEA (690) and TBR (666) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Brewers batters posted a 103 wRC+ this season. SDP (102), TBR (101) and CLE (99) all made the playoffs with a lower wRC+. Brewers position players tallied 24.3 WAR this season. SEA (23.0), CLE (21.8), PHI (21.7), SDP (21.3) and TBR (19.9) all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers allowed 688 runs this season. All twelve of the playoff teams allowed fewer runs. Brewers pitchers posted a 3.92 FIP this season. Only STL (3.94) had a higher FIP among playoff teams. Brewers pitchers tallied 15.6 rWAR this season. Only TOR (14.4) had less rWAR among playoff teams. I didn’t find either the offense or pitching embarrassing personally, but the pitching was statistically closer to being shameful.

The Brewers offense scored 725 runs this season. SDP (705), CLE (698), SEA (690) and TBR (666) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Brewers batters posted a 103 wRC+ this season. SDP (102), TBR (101) and CLE (99) all made the playoffs with a lower wRC+. Brewers position players tallied 24.3 WAR this season. SEA (23.0), CLE (21.8), PHI (21.7), SDP (21.3) and TBR (19.9) all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers allowed 688 runs this season. All twelve of the playoff teams allowed fewer runs. Brewers pitchers posted a 3.92 FIP this season. Only STL (3.94) had a higher FIP among playoff teams. Brewers pitchers tallied 15.6 rWAR this season. Only TOR (14.4) had less rWAR among playoff teams. I didn’t find either the offense or pitching embarrassing personally, but the pitching was statistically closer to being shameful.

Because it’s a hundred some million dollars guaranteed right now and the future is uncertain. Woodruff won’t be hitting free agency until after his age 31 season. So he’s probably looking at a 4/5 year deal tops through age 35/36 if he doesn’t extend. Lets say 30 million for the next two Arby’s years and then a 5/150 deal in FA, that’s something like 7/180 if he stays healthy and dealing for two more years. Let’s say the Brewers offered him the Castillo extension, 5/110. Then it comes down to is it worth gambling on one’s health and performance for two more years for an extra $70M that might be there or might not. Everyone weighs risk/reward differently. Do the Brewers want to risk extending a pitcher at big bucks with limited payroll? Do Woodruff/Burnes want to risk potential injury in hopes of maximizing future earnings?