sveumrules

Only six LF in the NL even cracked 700 innings. They were... Happ: +13 DRS | +8.3 UZR | +1 OAA Pham: +3 DRS | -2.2 UZR | -1 OAA Profar: +2 DRS | +1.1 UZR | -4 OAA Yelich: -2 DRS | +4.1 UZR | -4 OAA Canha: -4 DRS | -4.0 UZR | -1 OAA Schwarb: -14 DRS | -9.7 UZR | -13 OAA Yelich is as good a candidate for one of the finalist spots as anybody else besides Happ. Peralta got the other NL finalist spot in LF with only 607 innings (a lil over 67 full games) in the senior circuit posting -1 DRS | 0.3 UZR | +4 OAA.

Only six LF in the NL even cracked 700 innings. They were... Happ: +13 DRS | +8.3 UZR | +1 OAA Pham: +3 DRS | -2.2 UZR | -1 OAA Profar: +2 DRS | +1.1 UZR | -4 OAA Yelich: -2 DRS | +4.1 UZR | -4 OAA Canha: -4 DRS | -4.0 UZR | -1 OAA Schwarb: -14 DRS | -9.7 UZR | -13 OAA Yelich is as good a candidate for one of the finalist spots as anybody else besides Happ. Peralta got the other NL finalist spot in LF with only 607 innings (a lil over 67 full games) in the senior circuit posting -1 DRS | 0.3 UZR | +4 OAA.

The Padres have been building up to this for awhile now. 2018 Signed Hosmer for 8/144. Won 66 games. 2019 Signed Machado for 10/300. Won 70 games. 2020 Payroll up to 15th from 23rd/25th in 18/19, win 2nd most games in NL, swept out of NLDS 2021 Payroll jump to 9th, win 79 games, miss playoffs. 2022 Top 5 payroll, 5th seed, currently in NLCS. Add it all up and since signing Hosmer the Padres have gone 341-367 with an 8-7 (and counting playoff record) while spending around 650 million on payroll. Over that same time frame the Brewers have gone 395-314 with a 7-10 playoff record while spending around 500 million on payroll.

I agree with pretty much everything you said monty, as per usual, but am holding out hope that if they can extend Woodruff, they will hold onto Burnes for one more go in 2023 and then deal him at the deadline or in the offseason before 2024 depending on how things play out from there.

I agree with pretty much everything you said monty, as per usual, but am holding out hope that if they can extend Woodruff, they will hold onto Burnes for one more go in 2023 and then deal him at the deadline or in the offseason before 2024 depending on how things play out from there.

Telling people not to respond with true things like "we have to wait 5 years to judge the trade" or "we couldn't afford him anyway, so we had to take the best offer" will naturally limit the responses. Was the Hader trade good? It’s too soon to really judge. Would I make the same trade again? Yes. There’s no guarantee that not trading Hader results in the Brewers making the playoffs. I think Ruiz/Gasser offer much more future value than one season of Hader at 13-14 million in Arby.

Yeah, bullpen will definitely need some external additions this winter, whether via trade or FA. In 2021 Brewers relievers went… 44W-24L | 96 ERA- | 102 FIP- | 4.2 rWAR | 3.2 fWAR | +5.90 WPA In 2022 that dropped to… 36W-32L | 97 ERA- | 101 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR | +2.26 WPA Honestly kinda surprised the ERA- and FIP- are so close given Hader’s massive performance difference from 21 to 22 plus Rogers/Bush second half performance. But those extra eight losses and 3.64 drop in WPA were the real back breaker.

Yeah, bullpen will definitely need some external additions this winter, whether via trade or FA. In 2021 Brewers relievers went… 44W-24L | 96 ERA- | 102 FIP- | 4.2 rWAR | 3.2 fWAR | +5.90 WPA In 2022 that dropped to… 36W-32L | 97 ERA- | 101 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR | +2.26 WPA Honestly kinda surprised the ERA- and FIP- are so close given Hader’s massive performance difference from 21 to 22 plus Rogers/Bush second half performance. But those extra eight losses and 3.64 drop in WPA were the real back breaker.

There was no legitimate on-the-field reason for a division-leading team to trade away an All-Star closer at the trade deadline. An 8.31 ERA and four losses in the two months before the deadline wasn’t a legitimate on-field reason? If Hader has been his usual dominant self and the Brewers are seven up at the deadline do you think he still gets traded?

There was no legitimate on-the-field reason for a division-leading team to trade away an All-Star closer at the trade deadline. An 8.31 ERA and four losses in the two months before the deadline wasn’t a legitimate on-field reason? If Hader has been his usual dominant self and the Brewers are seven up at the deadline do you think he still gets traded?

Stearns didn’t torpedo the team. They started a franchise best 32-18. Over the next two months they went 25-27 with Hader losing four games personally and posting an 8.31 ERA. If Hader pitched like his normal self for those two months and the Brewers were seven up at the deadline instead of only a three game lead with an imploding closer, do you think Stearns still would have traded him?

It’s pretty easy for me. I don’t get infuriated to begin with. If I were to get infuriated it wouldn’t be over a baseball hypothetical. I watch these playoffs and I’m happy for Hader recovering from giving up 28 ER over 21 IP from 6/7 to 8/28. I’m happy to watch Girsham show out after hitting .184 in the regular season. The Brewers missed the playoffs by two games. Hader lost 4 games and pitched to an 8.31 ERA in the two months before he was dealt. Here’s a hypothetical, if Josh had continued his dominance and the Brewers were seven games up instead of three at the deadline, would he have still been traded?

The predictive value of 36 PAs spread across two stints a month apart is essentially nil. The break even point between Esteury’s .451 OPS in MLB vs his .953 OPS in AA/AAA is .702. Do you think his MLB OPS will end up over or under .700 once he has more than 36 PAs?

Was curious what combo of moves with 20/20 hindsight would have resulted in the extra 5 or so wins needed to clinch a WC spot with enough breathing room to line up the playoff rotation. Listed all the notable players moved at or around the deadline plus some bad post-deadline Brewers below if anyone else wants to give it a try. My moves… 01. Skip Hader (-0.9 WAR) for Rogers (-0.6) and Bush (-0.4) trades. (even). 02. Pick up Andrus on waivers mid-August (2.0 WAR) and give him Bross (0.0) and Jace (0.1) PAs. (+2 Wins) 03. Acquire Reese (1.3 WAR) and Bethancourt (1.2) to replace Omar (-0.3) and Victor (-0.2) behind the plate. (+3 Wins) Five wins, easier than I expected honestly. Selling the farm for Soto (0.9 WAR), Bell (-0.5), Castillo (1.2) and Iglesias (1.4) would have netted about 3 wins, enough to get in, but maybe not enough to line up the rotation. HITTERS Andrus (191 PA | 119 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR) Reese (108 PA | 145 wRC+ | 1.3 WAR) BetCrt (151 PA | 101 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR) Siri (178 PA | 93 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR) Soto (228 PA | 130 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR) BenTen (131 PA | 111 wRC+ | 0.8 WAR) Marsh (138 PA | 114 wRC+ | 0.6 WAR) Drury (183 PA | 105 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) Peralta (180 PA | 91 wRC+ | 0.2 WAR) Bell (210 PA | 79 wRC+ | -0.5 WAR) STARTERS Quintana (62 IP | 52 ERA- | 2.1 WAR) Mntgmry (63 IP | 80 ERA- | 1.4 WAR) Castillo (65 IP | 86 ERA- | 1.2 WAR) Thor (52 IP | 105 ERA- | 0.7 WAR) Mahle (16 IP | 115 ERA- | 0.2 WAR) Odorizzi (46 IP | 127 ERA- | 0.0 WAR) Montas (39 IP | 165 ERA- | 0.5 WAR) RELIEVERS Iglesias (26 IP | 8 ERA- | 1.4 WAR) Martin (24 IP | 37 ERA- | 1.1 WAR) Bass (25 IP | 45 ERA- | 0.9 WAR) Rbrtsn (23 IP | 66 ERA- | 0.6 WAR) Pop (19 IP | 49 ERA- | 0.5 WAR) Stratton (22 IP | 72 ERA- | 0.3 WAR) Fulmer (24 IP | 97 ERA- | 0.3 WAR) Effross (12 IP | 55 ERA- | 0.3 WAR) Lopez (22 IP | 114 ERA- | 0.0 WAR) Bush (23 IP | 106 ERA- | -0.4 WAR) Rogers (23 IP | 135 ERA- | -0.6 WAR) Hader (16 IP | 189 ERA- | -0.9 WAR) BAD BREWERS POST DEADLINE Narvaez (83 PA | 7 wRC+ | -0.3 WAR) Victor (142 PA | 39 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR) Cutch (199 PA | 89 wRC+ | -0.1 WAR) Bross (54 PA | 88 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR) Hiura (122 PA | 97 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR) OBJace (87 PA | 48 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR) Rowdy (217 PA | 106 wRC+ | 0.2 WAR) Alxndr (26 IP | 125 ERA- | 0.0 WAR) Ashby (26 IP | 134 ERA- | 0.0 WAR) Houser (26 IP | 118 ERA- | -0.1 WAR) Milner (25 IP | 121 ERA- | -0.1 WAR) Perdomo (13 IP | 134 ERA- | -0.1 WAR) Topa (7 IP | 121 ERA- | -0.2 WAR)

Yeah, Lauer was solid all year and the 3rd best starter behind Burnes/Woody but he never had that dominant streak like in 2021 where he posted a 1.78 ERA over a 13 start stretch.

Matt Arnold didn’t try to make the team better? He accidentally made three transactions in hopes of making the team worse? Just because it didn’t work doesn’t mean no effort was made. Which deal(s) would you have made that would have not only clinched a Wild Card spot, but also did so with enough time to line up our WC rotation to boot?

Robert Gasser: 137 IP with 3.94 ERA and 172/53 K/BB between AA/AAA in 2022. Esteury Ruiz: 541 PAs of 332/427/526 with 85 SB/14 CS between AA/AAA in 2022.

OUTGOING HITTERS (6) (Total: 1810 PA | 2.8 WAR) Avisail 21: 515 PA | 116 wRC+ | 2.8 WAR JBJ 21: 428 PA | 37 wRC+ | -1.6 WAR Vogelbach 21: 258 PA | 102 wRC+ | -0.1 WAR Manny 21: 208 PA | 96 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR Shaw 21: 202 PA | 68 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR Escobar 21: 199 PA | 115 wRC+ | 0.6 WAR INCOMING HITTERS (6) (Total: 1736 PA | 6.1 WAR) McCutchen 22: 580 PA | 98 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR Renfroe 22: 523 PA | 124 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR Caratini 22: 314 PA | 84 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR Brosseau 22: 160 PA | 118 wRC+ | 0.6 WAR Davis 22: 91 PA | 77 wRC+ | 0.5 WAR Mitchell 22: 68 PA | 136 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR Difference: -74 PA | +3.3 WAR

RETURNING HITTERS (10) (Total: +682 PA | +2.5 WAR) Lorenzo (-130 PA | -2.0 WAR) 21: 286 PA | 98 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR 22: 156 PA | 32 wRC+ | -0.5 WAR Narvaez (-149 PA | -1.8 WAR) 21: 445 PA | 100 wRC+ | 2.9 WAR 22: 296 PA | 71 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR Kolten (+5 PA | —- WAR) 21: 492 PA | 110 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR 22: 497 PA | 116 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR Urias (-98 PA | +0.2 WAR) 21: 570 PA | 112 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR 22: 472 PA | 110 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR Rowdy (+425 PA | +0.5 WAR) 21: 174 PA | 113 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR 22: 599 PA | 110 wRC+ | 0.8 WAR Tyrone (+134 PA | +0.8 WAR) 21: 271 PA | 107 wRC+ | 1.3 WAR 22: 405 PA | 102 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR Yelich (+196 PA | +0.8 WAR) 21: 475 PA | 102 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR 22: 671 PA | 111 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR OBJace (+26 PA | +1.2 WAR) 21: 302 PA | 98 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR 22: 328 PA | 96 wRC+ | 2.2 WAR Adames (+204 PA | +1.3 WAR) 21: 413 PA | 136 wRC+ | 3.4 WAR 22: 617 PA | 109 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR Keston (+69 PA | +1.5 WAR) 21: 197 PA | 53 wRC+ | -0.7 WAR 22: 266 PA | 115 wRC+ | 0.8 WAR

OUTGOING PITCHERS (6) (Total: 197 IP | 1.6 WAR) Anderson 21: 96 IP | 101 ERA- | 0.8 WAR Strickland 21: 36 IP | 41 ERA- | 0.9 WAR Norris 21: 20 IP | 158 ERA- | -0.4 WAR Richards 21: 19 IP | 76 ERA- | 0.3 WAR JPFYRSN 21: 19 IP | 78 ERA- | 0.2 WAR Rasmussen 21: 17 IP | 101 ERA- | -0.2 WAR INCOMING PITCHERS (6) (Total: 220 IP | -0.8 WAR) Alexander 22: 71 IP | 134 ERA- | -0.3 WAR Gott 22: 45 IP | 102 ERA- | -0.2 WAR Strzelecki 22: 35 IP | 70 ERA- | 0.5 WAR L Perdomo 22: 23 IP | 94 ERA- | 0.2 WAR Bush 22: 23 IP | 106 ERA- | -0.4 WAR Rogers 22: 23 IP | 135 ERA- | -0.6 WAR Difference: +23 IP | -2.4 WAR

RETURNING PITCHERS (12) (Total: +20 IP | -11.6 WAR) Hader (-24 IP | -3.2 WAR) 21: 58 IP | 29 ERA- | 3.4 WAR 22: 34 IP | 105 ERA- | 0.2 WAR Houser (-40 IP | -3.2 WAR) 21: 142 IP | 77 ERA- | 2.8 WAR 22: 102 IP | 117 ERA- | -0.4 WAR Peralta (-66 IP | -2.8 WAR) 21: 144 IP | 67 ERA- | 4.5 WAR 22: 78 IP | 88 ERA- | 1.7 WAR Woodruff (-26 IP | -2.4 WAR) 21: 179 IP | 61 ERA- | 6.3 WAR 22: 153 IP | 75 ERA- | 3.9 WAR Burnes (+35 IP | -0.9 WAR) 21: 167 IP | 58 ERA- | 6.2 WAR 22: 202 IP | 73 ERA- | 5.3 WAR Suter (-7 IP | -0.4 WAR) 21: 73 IP | 73 ERA- | 0.6 WAR 22: 66 IP | 93 ERA- | 0.2 WAR Cousins (-17 IP | -0.4 WAR) 21: 30 IP | 64 ERA- | 0.7 WAR 22: 13 IP | 67 ERA- | 0.3 WAR Lauer (+40 IP | -0.2 WAR) 21: 118 IP | 76 ERA- | 2.8 WAR 22: 158 IP | 91 ERA- | 2.6 WAR Ashby (+76 IP | +0.3 WAR) 21: 31 IP | 108 ERA- | -0.2 WAR 22: 107 IP | 110 ERA- | 0.1 WAR Boxberger (—- IP | +0.4 WAR) 21: 64 IP | 80 ERA- | 1.0 WAR 22: 64 IP | 73 ERA- | 1.4 WAR Devin (+6 IP | +0.6 WAR) 21: 54 IP | 60 ERA- | 1.6 WAR 22: 60 IP | 48 ERA- | 2.2 WAR Milner (+43 IP | +0.6 WAR) 21: 21 IP | 129 ERA- | -0.2 WAR 22: 64 IP | 93 ERA- | 0.4 WAR

Fred Willard (RIP) is one of my all time favorites & this hour long loop of him repeating his “Hey! Wha Happen?!?” catch phrase from A Mighty Wind might be one of my favorite things on the internet… With that as an inspiration & jumping off point I thought I’d try to figure out What Happened to the make the 2022 Brewers lose nine more games than their 2021 predecessors. To do so, I broke the roster down into four categories - returning hitters, returning pitchers, outgoing/incoming hitters and outgoing/incoming pitchers. tl,dr version is that twelve returning pitchers combined for -11.4 rWAR compared to 2021, six incoming pitchers combined for -2.4 rWAR compared to the six outgoing pitchers they replaced, ten returning position players combined for +2.5 WAR compared to 2021, and six incoming position players combined for +3.3 WAR compared to the six outgoing position players they replaced. Will post each category separately below to break things up a little bit.

The Brewers offense scored 725 runs this season. SDP (705), CLE (698), SEA (690) and TBR (666) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Brewers batters posted a 103 wRC+ this season. SDP (102), TBR (101) and CLE (99) all made the playoffs with a lower wRC+. Brewers position players tallied 24.3 WAR this season. SEA (23.0), CLE (21.8), PHI (21.7), SDP (21.3) and TBR (19.9) all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers allowed 688 runs this season. All twelve of the playoff teams allowed fewer runs. Brewers pitchers posted a 3.92 FIP this season. Only STL (3.94) had a higher FIP among playoff teams. Brewers pitchers tallied 15.6 rWAR this season. Only TOR (14.4) had less rWAR among playoff teams. Our offense was much closer to playoff calibre than our pitching was this season, even with last year’s Cy Young winner fronting the rotation.

San Fran wasn’t trying? Won the most games in MLB last year, spent $26M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 81 games. The Red Sox weren’t trying? Made the ALCS last year, spent $80M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 78 games. The White Sox weren’t trying? Won their division last year, spent $66M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 81 games. The Twins weren’t trying? Signed Correa and Buxton to huge deals, traded for Sonny Gray and some Yankees, spent $16M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 78 games. The Angels weren’t trying? They have Ohtani/Trout, signed Thor for $21M, gave almost $100M to Iglesias, Loup, Tepera and Lorenzen, spent $50M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 73 games.

Peralta was pretty much limited to 2-4 IP stints once he came back from the DL the second time at the end of September. His last outing was 10/02 so he probably would have started Game 1 with Ashby (?) lined up behind him hoping to get to Milner, Strzelecki, Box, Devin. Woody pitched 10/03 so he could have started Game 2 on four days rest. This would be the only normal start from the trio in the Wild Card round. Burnes started 10/05 so he would have been lined up to start Game 3 on three days rest.