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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    No way to really know until we get to Opening Day, but until then best way is just to keep an eye on the 40 Man Roster. Right now I count at least 18 guys from 2022 that have somewhere between a sure and decent shot at being on the Opening Day roster... Position Players (8): Caratini, Rowdy, Urias, Adames, Brosseau, Yelich, Taylor, Mitchell. Pitchers (10): Ashby, Burnes, Bush, Houser, Lauer, Milner, Peralta, Strzelecki, Williams, Woodruff.
  2. sveumrules
    Last year they tallied 31.3 WAR on offense and 20.3 rWAR on the mound. FanGraphs depth charts currently have them projected at 32.2 WAR on offense and 19.3 WAR on the mound. Obviously lots of offseason to go, but not a whole lot of movement of the bottom line compared to the headlines. For comparison Brewers were at 24.3 WAR on offense and 15.9 WAR on the mound last year vs current projections of 24.6 WAR on offense and 17.7 WAR on the mound. Slightly better movement on the bottom line despite a much quieter offseason.
  3. sveumrules
    I added the Steamer projected wRC+ for 2023, that looks like more than four runs per game to me. Last year the Brewers 4.48 R/G ranked 10th vs a league average of 4.28 R/G. Only seven teams - KCR (3.95), LAA (3.85), WAS (3.72), PIT (3.65), MIA (3.62), OAK (3.51) and DET (3.44) came in under four runs per game. I still think there is room to add one more lefty masher to the Corner/DH mix to round things out and trust Arnie to add one before spring training rolls around.
  4. sveumrules
    I was just going off this passage in the MLBTR write up..."New York has already shattered the fourth and final tier of CBT penalization, subjecting them to a 90% tax on every additional dollar spent. The Narváez deal will cost them an extra $6.75MM in taxes, meaning the Mets are committing $14.75MM to secure his services for next year alone (in addition to the 2024 option). "
  5. sveumrules
    If you think 8 million is a lot, Mets are actually paying closer to 15 million with the luxury tax penalty. Personally I find the way Cohen is operating in contrast to even the other ultra super mega obscenely wealthy MLB owners kind of fascinating. Think he’s actually kind of setting up a lose/lose scenario though. Get knocked out in the Wild Card again? LOLMets. Win the whole shebang? Well, they spent almost half a billion on payroll and luxury tax, they should.
  6. sveumrules
    HR/FB% is one of the flukiest stats which takes the longest to stabilize. In his tiny sample of 157 PAs vs RHP in 2022 Keston posted a 36.7 HR/FB%. For reference on how fluky that is, Hiura has a career 23.1 HR/FB% and Aaron Judge just put up the best post-Bonds offensive season with a 35.6 HR/FB%. Much like his 2019 performance vs RHP wasn’t sustainable due to out of whack K%, BABIP and HR/FB%, neither does his 2022 performance appear to be… 2019 vs RHP: 265 PA | 30.2 K% | .415 BABIP | 29.5 HR/FB% | 159 wRC+ 2020-21 vs RHP: 321 PA | 35.5 K% | .263 BABIP | 20.9 HR/FB% | 82 wRC+ 2022 vs RHP: 157 PA | 39.5 K% | .369 BABIP | 36.7 HR/FB% | 143 wRC+ We don’t need to wait until 2023 to see if regression will kick in, it already happened to close out 2022. Looking at full season numbers Keston’s 2022 peaked on August 22nd when he had a 144 wRC+ with a 42.8 K%, .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% through 173 PAs. From August 23rd through the end of the season he posted a 63 wRC+ with a 39.8 K%, .319 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB% over 93 PAs.
  7. sveumrules
    Dodgers offseason is more or less on hold until they find out the ruling on Bauer’s appeal. If they have to pay him back they could be done making any real moves in FA if they want to reset their luxury tax. If they don’t have to pay him back they’ll could sign Turner and more without crossing the tax line.
  8. sveumrules
    Barlow has a longer track record of success so he’d probably cost a bit more to acquire. BTV has Barlow in the same neighborhood as guys like Mitchell, Turang or Wiemer.
  9. sveumrules
    Truly an insane transformation for Omar... 2016-19: 1216 PA | 113 wRC+ | -10.0 DEF | 4.5 WAR 2020-22: 867 PA | 85 wRC+ | +33.3 DEF | 4.5 WAR During his Brewers tenure there were essentially eight catchers that were no doubt better than him... Realmuto (119 wRC+ | +37.1 DEF | 12.6 WAR), Murphy (115 wRC+ | +39.2 DEF | 10.0 WAR), Smith (132 wRC+ | +12.3 DEF | 9.7 WAR), Willson (119 wRC+ | +7.7 DEF | 7.2 WAR), d'Arnaud (114 wRC+ | +26.2 DEF | 6.1 WAR), Perez (124 wRC+ | -20.3 DEF | 5.7 WAR), Rutschman (133 wRC+ | +13.1 DEF | 5.3 WAR) and Posey (139 wRC+ | +13.8 DEF | 4.9 WAR). After that Omar was one of seven catchers grouped within half a win of each other... Yasmani (113 wRC+ | +12.6 DEF | 4.8 WAR), Alejandro (124 wRC+ | +8.7 DEF | 4.6 WAR), Trevino (79 wRC+ | +45.3 DEF | 4.6 WAR), Omar (85 wRC+ | +33.3 DEF | 4.5 WAR), Zunino (105 wRC+ | +21.8 DEF | 4.5 WAR), Jansen (114 wRC+ | +14.1 DEF | 4.3 WAR) and Raleigh (101 wRC+ | +23.6 DEF | 4.3 WAR). Vasquez (92 wRC+ | +26.7 DEF | 3.3 WAR) value is really held back by his base running (-17.9) which is dead last among all players from 2020-22 with Miguel Cabrera second worst at -13.7.
  10. sveumrules
    Scanning the 2022 reliever leaderboards looking for guys on non-contenders and the most intriguing name I came across was Hunter Harvey on the Nationals. Only 39 IP but he posted a 62 ERA- and 52 FIP-, though his 0.23 HR9 is likely unsustainable leading to an 85 xFIP-. Checking his pitch mix it looks like he more or less ditched his breaking balls to emphasize his 98.3 MPH four seamer (77%) and 89.4 MPH splitter (15%) as the out pitch. Not sure what he would cost to acquire, was a waiver claim by the Nats last March so maybe they'd be interested in cashing him in for prospect capital. Looking at BTV something like Zavier Warren, Hendry Mendez or Luis Lara as a headliner (depending on how far out the Nats are thinking) would be around fair value.
  11. sveumrules
    Delly got four years and $38M though. Miller is probably more like Nwora. Might have some upside in there but doesn't offer enough currently to be in the regular rotation when everyone is healthy.
  12. sveumrules
    147 wRC+ vs LHP over 211 PAs from 2021-22 too.
  13. sveumrules
    Love Yandy’s bat, but looking at his 3B fielding metrics (-30 DRS | -18 OAA career) I’m not sure he’s anything more than a 1B/DH unfortunately.
  14. sveumrules
    Dodgers trade for JPF because of course they do. Still kinda boggles the mind that the Brewers have become so good at identifying and developing pitchers recently that the Dodgers keep jumping on them.
  15. sveumrules
    Beane’s A’s have definitely had impressive success over the years, especially given ownerships near total indifference to the team’s existence, but twenty years ago he was more or less on an island with what he was doing. At this point pretty much every team has an expansive analytics department and multiple Ivy League acronym holders in the front office to go along with their massive payroll advantages. From 2015-17 OAK won the 4th fewest games in MLB, then bounced back to win the 5th most from 2018-21 before having their first 100 loss season since 1979 this past summer. Will be interesting to see how long this rebuild lasts. They’ve let Semien, Treinen, Hendriks and Canha walk in free agency instead of trading them and even with dealing the likes of Chapman, Olson, Murphy, Montas, Bassitt and Manea recently they still have a middle of the road farm.
  16. sveumrules
    Drafted in 2012 so this will be his 11th season in the organization. Honestly is remarkable given how much player movement there is nowadays and he isn’t a star level player. Since 2020 Tyrone is one of 116 OF with at least 600 PA, essentially four per team. His 3.6 WAR ranks 61st ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc. Not bad for a “fourth outfielder”.
  17. sveumrules
    It’s [insert adjective of your choice] looking at the A’s Cots page and Jace ($4.75M) & Manny ($4.5M) are their 2nd and 3rd highest paid players at the moment.
  18. sveumrules
    Contreras has also posted lower K% through his minor league career, 20.7% over 222 PA at AAA, 19.1% over 202 PA at AA, 20.2% over 297 PA at A+, all while being over a year younger than league average at each stop. Steamer is projecting a 25.9 K% for William in 2023 vs 27.7% in 2022 (376 PA) and 28.4% for his MLB career (571 PA).
  19. sveumrules
    Rule 5 picks have to stay on the MLB roster all year. That seems like a way more important factor than the 50K.
  20. sveumrules
    Nice bounce back win for the Bucks (without Jrue) against Golden State tonight after their worst loss of the year to HOU on Sunday. Giannis with a somewhat ugly 30 on 9/26 from the field while Bobby couldn’t miss with 25 on 11/15 shooting. Tough little stretch coming up over the next six with @MEM, vsUTA, @NOP, @CLE, @BRO and @BOS on Xmas.
  21. sveumrules
    Varsho has essentially done two things well in his career so far. Hit for extra bases. Among 160 players with 1,000 PA from 2020-22, his 123 ISO+ ranks 55th. Play defense. Among 113 OF with at least 1,000 innings from 2020-22 he’s notched +26.4 UZR (1st), +23 OAA (4th) and +26 DRS (6th), mostly in RF. Hasn’t graded out well behind the plate defensively, so think he’d be more of a third catcher than a primary backup there. Also has a career 112 wRC+ vs RHP compared to a 66 wRC+ vs LHP, so wouldn’t really fit the perceived need for another lefty masher.
  22. sveumrules
    Hiura (115 wRC+) hit better than Winker (109 wRC+) and Tellez (110 wRC+) last year, but it was in a small sample of only 266 PAs with a bunch of alarming (41.7 K%) or unsustainable (.355 BABIP | 29.8 HR/FB%) inputs under the hood. Even with ranking 15th in Barrel% for 2022 (min 200 PA), StatCast still thought Keston “got lucky” with actual AVG/SLG of 226/449 vs expected AVG/SLG of 205/425. Among 247 players with at least 1,000 PA from 2019-22, Winker (12.7 BB% | 17.8 K%) ranks 14th in BB/K ratio, Rowdy (8.6 BB% | 22.1 K%) is essentially average at 131st, while Keston (7.4 BB% | 36.0 K%) comes in 236th. Those plate discipline profiles are a big part of why Steamer gives Winker (122 wRC+) and Rowdy (123 wRC+) better projections than Hiura (99 wRC+) for 2023.
  23. sveumrules
    Potential post-trade lineup with (2023 Steamer Projections) Yelich (119 OPS+) Frelick (111 OPS+) Adames (111 OPS+) Winker (122 OPS+) Rowdy (123 OPS+) Contreras (115 OPS+) Urias (110 OPS+) Mitchell (99 OPS+) Turang (94 OPS+)
  24. sveumrules
    Dodgers offseason is mostly on hold until they find out what is happening with all that Bauer money. If they have to pay Trevor back, Turner's odds of signing elsewhere increase pretty notably I would imagine depending on how eager the Dodgers are or aren't to stay under the luxury tax line. If the arbiter rules in the Dodgers favor they'll have plenty of cash to bring back Turner and spend elsewhere while still staying under the luxury tax.
  25. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has BU (bunts) and BUH (bunt hits) headers under the "More Batted Ball" tab on the player pages. This particular tab doesn't show up on the leaderboards though. They also have BUH% under the "Batted Ball" tab which does show up on their leaderboards. EDIT: looks like BUH does show up on the Batted Ball leaderboards as well. Juan Pierre at 217 (34% success rate) has the most since 2002. Carlos Gomez is 4th at 105 (42.3% success rate)... https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2002-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=12,d
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