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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Cot’s has the Brewers projected OD payroll at 111.5 million currently. A’s are currently projected at 47.5 million. Now that is sad.
  2. sveumrules
    MLBTR projected him at $5.2M in Arby before he was non-tendered, so he should end up cheaper than Longoria anyway. Pros for Anderson are he would presumably be cheaper, he’s younger and he can also handle RF in addition to 3B. Cons are he’s been hurt/bad for two years now (93 wRC+ over 647 PA from 2021-22), and even when he was good from 2018-20 (115 wRC+ over 1419 PA) he carried slight reverse splits at 117 wRC+ vs RHP and 107 wRC+ vs LHP. Longoria has been even more hurt than Anderson (only 589 PA from 2021-22), though he has hit when he’s been on the field with a 118 wRC+. He has also crushed lefties to the tune of a 143 wRC+ over 267 PAs from 2020-22, though that means he prolly shouldn’t play much against RHP anymore with a 95 wRC+ over 531 PAs from 2020-22.
  3. sveumrules
    From the MLBTR article on the signing… Drury 223 PA at GABP = 298/354/561 345 PA all other parks = 240/299/447
  4. sveumrules
    Here’s the System Overview from the FanGraphs list… ”The Brewers ended the 2022 season as the 16th-ranked farm system in baseball, with 15 players in the 40+ FV tier or above and three Top 100 guys. After moving Sal Frelick up from the 45+ FV tier (part of me thinks he still belongs there, as the possibility that he isn’t a center field is very real), they now have four in the Top 100. With that bump, the system would have ranked 12th at the end of the year, so that’s roughly where it fits across the game, plus or minus a few spots. The Brewers have clear patterns of acquisition on the amateur side. Measurable hitting skill is pervasive through all of their drafts. They take low-strikeout, short-levered, up-the-middle hitters, and often ignore size and physical projection in pursuit of it. Milwaukee’s attraction to junior college and Indy ball pitchers indicates the org is looking for developmental meat on the bone rather than targeting pitchers who are more likely to be maxed out, or closer to it, from a pitch design standpoint. They’re more active in Venezuela than most other clubs and (these things are somewhat related) tend to have several leather wizard shortstops in the org, a group that is especially deep right now. The Brewers showcased three of them across their two ACL teams in 2022. Virtually all of their pitchers in the DSL have shallow-angle fastballs, another common theme in the system as a whole. Like Arizona, it’s possible the Brewers consider their young outfield group deep enough to trade from, but they’re all more divisive than the D-backs group, especially Wiemer and Mitchell.”
  5. sveumrules
    Davis got 85 PAs during the 51 game stretch you referenced, 10th among position players and 4th among OF. FanGraphs credited him with 0.4 WAR and +0.22 WPA during that stretch. The team went 26-25 during those two months amidst their 54-58 stretch to close out this season. The numbers seem to indicate getting positive contributions from Davis as the 6th OF on the 40 Man did more to keep us in the race than it did to keep us out of the playoffs.
  6. sveumrules
    Yandy’s bat would be perfect. Great BB/K ratio, crushes LHP and RHP alike. Problem is his glove (-30 DRS | -18 OAA career at 3B) likely limits him to 1B/DH. Imagine it would take something like Wiemer or Mitchell as a headliner with a couple lower level guys to round things out.
  7. sveumrules
    Urias, Brosseau, Toro and maybe even Miller or Turang are already on the 40 man ahead of him as 3B options. Cam will get a long look at Nashville, but I think he’s more of a Pablo Reyes/Mark Mathias type depth option at this point.
  8. sveumrules
    Obviously Arnie is steering the ship now, but looking at ESPNs Free Agent Tracker the only FA relievers the Brewers signed to guaranteed MLB deals under Stearns were Neftali Feliz (1/$5.35M) prior to 2017 and Matt Albers (2/$5M) & Boone Logan (1/$2.5M) prior to 2018. That’s it until they re-signed Boxberger for 1/$2.5M prior to 2022. As much as the need appears to be there, I don’t see them ponying up for one of the “proven” relievers left & I hope they aren’t even considering bringing Rogers back. My guess would be they are going to go Rays style and try to unearth some gems among the various new arms they’ve brought in or a guy like Uribe who might have the biggest arm on the 40 man. Think whatever FA funds maybe remain go toward one more bat with Longoria checking the most boxes of the guys still out there.
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, then perfect clueless Harold Reynolds at the end, “how crazy were the fans during that 18 inning game!” Winker, “I wasn’t there, I was having surgery on my knee and getting a second opinion on my neck.”
  10. sveumrules
    As a lead up to prospect season FanGraphs published an article on the 2023 International Class with the Brewers connected to Venezuelan shortstop Kevin Ereu… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/board-update-2023-international-amateur-prospects/#comments Here is Ereu’s scouting report from the board - “One of the more polished all-around players in the class, Ereu has plus infield footwork and actions, and is physical enough to threaten the gaps on offense. He looks like a third round West Coast college infielder in his skills and build, and is perceived to have a high floor.”
  11. sveumrules
    Tip of the hat go David Laurila of FanGraphs for this funnest of facts… Yadier Molina had a .327 OBP, 176 home runs, and 1,577 singles. Joey Gallo has a .325 OBP, 177 home runs, and 198 singles.
  12. sveumrules
    Apparently Mets were a late entry to the Correa sweepstakes and were among the under bidders with an offer around $300M. Some of Cohen’s quotes are seriously just too rich (punintentional)… “My team is good. But it isn’t that much better than last year. If you want a team that’s good, this is what it costs. What are you going to do?” “I’ve been dealing with big numbers for so long these numbers don’t scare me at all. It’s not like I’m not respectful about what these other teams have to deal with.”
  13. sveumrules
    Would surprise me somewhat if the Brewers traded a big prospect outlay for a guy like Vinnie who is limited to 1B/DH, but he has straight mashed all through the minors and his half season with the Royals. His 141 wRC+ Steamer projection is almost 20 points higher than anyone else on our roster so would definitely be a big add to the lineup. Royals are probably the 2nd most “out there” front office after the Rockies so who really knows what they’re ever thinking. They do seem to have an affinity for speedy contact hitters that play good defense though, which is an area where we have some depth.
  14. sveumrules
    Stole this chart from the FG article about his signing, but definitely some troubling indicators under the hood from 2021 to 2022 for Box even though the surface level stats weren’t all that far off… Boxberger’s Percentile Rankings in 2021 & 2022 Stat 2021 2022 Fastball Velocity 55th 37th K% 90th 67th Avg. Exit Velocity 60th 90th HardHit% 76th 81st
  15. sveumrules
    So more than Acuña and MHII combined. Topped the extension ATL signed Olson to after dealing for him last year. Also longer and more money than Freeman got, though lower AAV.
  16. sveumrules
    Dan$by about to get more than Acuña and Albies combined.
  17. sveumrules
    Chafin is prolly the best FA lefty (or reliever in general) left. Among 287 relievers with at least 50 IP the last two seasons he ranks 23rd in ERA- (58), 51st in FIP- (75), 12th in rWAR (3.2), 20th in fWAR (2.3) and 15th in WPA (+3.59). Things I see working against him are an 89 xFIP- indicating he might have had some HR/FB luck over his last 126 IP, and being a 33 year old that will likely sign for multiple years.
  18. sveumrules
    Had a thought that the Rockies are so out of touch with the rest of MLB, and they have the perfect stadium for Keston (or any hitter really) to have success that maybe we could dump him off on them, but they have Cron, Bryant and Blackmon already for the 1B/DH mix so not really a clear path to playing time there. I’d take any teenager in the DSL with a nice K/BB ratio at this point, and I’d guess the Brewers front office would too. That such a deal hasn’t happened yet likely means that GMs for rebuilding clubs are just waiting out that inevitable DFA. Checking the current 1B/DH projections at FanGraphs it looks like the A’s, Nationals, Tigers and Marlins are the non-divisional teams that could “use” Keston the most if there is a deal to be made somewhere out there.
  19. sveumrules
    Sounded like the Twins were shopping Arraez around for starting pitching. Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta aren’t going anywhere, then you have Lauer or Houser who aren’t enough of an upgrade to pique the Twins interest. Something built around Ashby for Arraez is pretty close on the BTV site, though that’d be more of a gamble on upside from the Twins side where I’d imagine they’re looking for a little more certainty in return for Arraez. Santander’s value is probably in the same range as Houser or Lauer, but not sure there’s a match there as we don’t really have the SP depth to trade Adrian or Eric and the Orioles don’t really have the OF depth to deal Anthony.
  20. sveumrules
    From 2017-21, even with all the Ks and low batting average, Gallo racked up 14.4 WAR which tied him for 40th in MLB with Rizzo & Muncy. His .289 ISO did the heavy lifting for his value ranking 3rd in MLB over that stretch, while his base running (+16.8, 20th) and defense (+38 DRS, 12th | +18.1 UZR, 19th among OF) provided nice value around the edges. Obviously that all cratered once he was traded to NYY. Hopefully getting out of the big apple can get him back to normal, which even with 2022 included has been 3.2 WAR/600 PA over the course of his career.
  21. sveumrules
    Crazy deals getting handed out this offseason make the Yelich deal feel a little less onerous. Benintendi 2020-22 1111 PAs | 110 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR Yelich 2020-22 1393 PAs | 108 wRC+ | 4.5 WAR If 5/75 is market value for Benny, 6/156 left on Yeli deal is only like 80 million underwater vs say the negative 112 million they have on BTV.
  22. sveumrules
    Frelick & Turang have had pretty even splits through MiLB, Mitchell looks like the most likely platoon possibility of the three... Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS Frelcik 21 vs RHP: 136 PA | 840 OPS Frelcik 21 vs LHP: 33 PA | 1054 OPS Turang 22 vs RHP: 399 PA | 767 OPS Turang 22 vs LHP: 204 PA | 781 OPS Turang 21 vs RHP: 368 PA | 711 OPS Turang 21 vs LHP: 128 PA | 705 OPS Mitchell 22 vs RHP: 268 PA | 832 OPS Mitchell 22 vs LHP: 89 PA | 766 OPS Mitchell 21 vs RHP: 205 PA | 817 OPS Mitchell 21 vs LHP: 63 PA | 732 OPS Yelich (401 PAs) and Winker (299 PAs) have each posted a 104 wRC+ vs LHP since 2020, so they aren't total zeroes against same hand pitching either.
  23. sveumrules
    If the alternative is signing Gallo, I'll take it!! ? ?
  24. sveumrules
    Would imagine most of it is regression to the mean/better health for guys like Woodruff, Peralta and Houser who went from 13.6 combined rWAR in 2021 to 5.2 combined rWAR in 2022.
  25. sveumrules
    Saw in Eric Longenhagen's FanGraphs chat today that the Brewers list should be out sometime next week. Always one of my favorite days of the winter.
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