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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    My best guess would be we didn’t have (or weren’t willing to part with) the kind of pitching OAK wanted back for Murphy, while ATL had the pitching but not Esteury, so the A’s probably said something like “figure out amongst yourselves how to put Ruiz together with the ATL pitchers & we’ll send Murphy to whoever does that.”
  2. sveumrules
    Adames has managed a .322 OBP over 2,248 career PAs. Steamer projects him at .316 for 2023. I don’t think Arnold will give him $25M a year either but if Willy’s willing to sign for something like say 6/100 it might be Monty Hall time.
  3. sveumrules
    Adames is a legitimate defensive SS, Hiura is a DH/1B. If Hiura could field as well as Adames his bat would have gotten a lot more opportunities. Since he can’t he is looking like a fringe major leaguer while Adames is in line for a six figure contract.
  4. sveumrules
    Thought for sure when I saw Murphy to Braves on MLBTR that we'd be trying to muster up excitement for a Pineapple Reunion.
  5. sveumrules
    Turang to ATL to replace Dansby?
  6. sveumrules
    It’s been a win win for both teams. Brewers don’t win the division in 2021 or just miss out on the wild card last year without Willy’s 8.0 WAR. Rays had Wander ready in the wings so the 7.7 rWAR they’ve gotten from Drew/JPF has been more useful to them. JPF just had shoulder surgery too so he’s likely to have an abbreviated 2023 after his 2022 was also injury shortened.
  7. sveumrules
    Yeah, Kidd used the TO to “draw up” that last OOB play with two seconds left.
  8. sveumrules
    It’s a deep and troubling downturn to you that the Brewers missed the playoffs by two games to teams whose payrolls were $25M (STL), $50M (ATL), $95M (SD), $115M (PHI), and $140M (NY/LA) more than theirs? I’d say that’s just baseball happening. That the Brewers are even in a position to be competitive with teams that have much greater spending capacity on payroll (& everything else too) is much more of a success than missing out on the playoffs by two games after four straight appearances is any kind of failure. The Giants went from an NL best 107 wins in 2021 to 81 wins in 2022 while spending $40M more than us on payroll. The Red Sox went from the ALCS in 2021 to 5th in the ALE (below even the lowly Orioles) while spending $80M more than us on payroll. The White Sox went from winning their division in 2021 down to 81 wins in 2022 while spending $75M more than us on payroll. The Nationals have been the 2nd worst team in baseball the last three years since winning the WS, trading away Scherzer, Soto and Turner during that stretch. I’d say those downturns are significantly deeper than the Brewers missing the playoffs by two games with the deck stacked against them.
  9. sveumrules
    The Adames and Urias trades both involved notable prospects in Rasmussen and Grisham. Wong 5 WAR for 15 million. Narvaez 4.5 WAR for an org depth prospect. Jace 3.5 WAR off the scrap heap. Avisail 3.3 WAR for a lil over 13 million. Renfroe 2.5 WAR for the corpse of JBJ and his 17.5 million in dead money. Boxberger +2.45 WPA for 4.25 million. There have been a number of solid guys via trade / free agency the last few years.
  10. sveumrules
    Bucks with a pretty epic win on the road in Dallas tonight. Giannis fouled out contesting a three, THJ missed all three FTs. Khris gets called for a ticky tack foul on a tipped ball along the sideline, DFS misses both FTs. Bud calls up a great OOB play that leads to an uncontested Brook lay-oop to take the lead. Kidd doesn’t call timeout to advance the ball and Jrue knocks Luka’s dribble out of bounds with like 2.5 seconds left. Bucks totally know the OOB play Kidd is running and Luka has to chuck up a contested prayer from thirty plus feet out before storming off the court amidst a Pigpen dust swirl of grievances and obscenities. Doncic spends so much time complaining his nickname should be The Internet.
  11. sveumrules
    Stearns didn’t really have prospect capital to use until now after dealing for Yelich (& to a lesser extent Adames/Urias/Lauer/Rowdy) and graduating all the arms that have been the foundation of the Brewers recent success. Looking at the FanGraphs WAR leaderboards for 2021-22, here are the best position players that have been dealt at some point in the last two years… Trea Turner (135 wRC+ | 13.1 WAR) Juan Soto (154 wRC+ | 10.9 WAR) Matt Chapman (110 wRC+ | 8.3 WAR) Matt Olson (133 wRC+ | 8.2 WAR) Willy Adames (116 wRC+ | 8.0 WAR) We were never getting Turner or Soto, maybe we could have gotten one of the Matts from OAK last offseason? Even if the Brewers wanted to go “all in” at this point, let’s say deal for Sean Murphy then push payroll and sign Correa to the high AAV opt out heavy deal he got from the Twins last year, we still aren’t the favorites for anything. Our payroll would still be a couple two tree superstars short of LAD, SDP, NYM, ATL, PHI and STL. It would certainly increase our playoff odds, add some excitement and sell some tickets (which is why I personally would do it) but it would still be an uphill battle with lots of luck required along the way to win the NLC or make a deep playoff run.
  12. sveumrules
    Sounds like the roots of your problem are more with the economic structure of MLB or with the budget Mark A gives the front office to work with. We returned 11 of the top 13 pitchers by IP from the pitching staff that was 3rd in rWAR in 2021. They finished 14th in rWAR in 2022. That is not an expected level of regression.
  13. sveumrules
    What moves would you have made? There wasn't a whole lot of wiggle room with all the arbitration raises and it looks like they overextended themselves to a franchise record payroll as it was. Entering 2022, external projection systems all favored the Brewers over the Cardinals to win the division. With hindsight it's easy to see that some moves for additional pitching depth would have been nice since Hader (-3.2 rWAR from 2021), Houser (-3.2 rWAR), Peralta (-2.8 rWAR) and Woodruff (-2.4 rWAR) combined for about 11-12 fewer wins in 2022 than in 2021, but it's tough for even the richest teams to withstand that kind of lost production from their closer and half the rotation in the primes of their careers.
  14. sveumrules
    In 2019 Jansen started 94 games for Toronto at catcher after coming into the season ranked #42 (BA), #65 (MLB) and #89 (BPro) on the various preseason Top 100s. He also started 40 of 60 games in 2020. He then started 33 of the first 57 games behind the dish in 2021 before going on the DL.
  15. sveumrules
    In 2019 Jansen started 94 games for Toronto at catcher after coming into the season ranked #42 (BA), #65 (MLB) and #89 (BPro) on the various preseason Top 100s. He also started 40 of 60 games in 2020. He then started 33 of the first 57 games behind the dish in 2021 before going on the DL.
  16. sveumrules
    Swanson’s career wRC+ is heavily weighed down by 2017-19 (1629 PA | 78 wRC+). Last three years he is at 109 wRC+ over 1613 PA. Adames might be closer to Turner by wRC+, but his WAR totals are 3.7 off from Dansby vs 7.6 off from Trea so I’d say overall he is closer to Swanson at this point.
  17. sveumrules
    That Nimmo contract is nuts. Was projected at 5/110 by both MLBTR and FanGraphs. Granted he is two years younger and his profile is slanted more towards offense (and there is the shortened 2020 in there too), but Cain was more valuable over the three seasons leading up to him landing 5/80 from the Brewers than Nimmo has been over the last four… Nimmo 2019-22: 1538 PA | 134 wRC+ | +0.7 BSR | +0.7 DEF | 11.7 WAR Cain 2015-17: 1683 PA | 115 wRC+ | +10.9 BSR | +26.3 DEF | 12.8 WAR
  18. sveumrules
    External sources have the Brewers farm ranked 13th (BA), 16th (FanGraphs) and 19th (MLB). That seems like a perfectly cromulent range of rankings to me.
  19. sveumrules
    MLBTR reporting 4/72 for Taijuan Walker to the Phils. He has essentially been a more durable Lauer/Houser over the last three seasons… Walker 2020-22 369 IP | 97 ERA- | 103 FIP- Houser 2020-22 301 IP | 98 ERA- | 104 FIP- Lauer 2020-22 288 IP | 93 ERA- | 106 FIP-
  20. sveumrules
    Belli might have youth on his side, but he has been legit bad (74 OPS+ and 1.2 WAR over 1143 PA) post-2019. Seems like a lot of money for a cross your fingers and hope.
  21. sveumrules
    Market must have been tepid after he went ice cold with SD down the stretch (combined with a history of streaky performance). MLBTR predicted 4/64. Must be hoping he can opt out, put up his first ever wire to wire good season in 2023 and try to cash in again next winter,
  22. sveumrules
    MLBTR reporting the Padres offered Trea 342 million. Guess he was still miffed they traded him away in the first place.
  23. sveumrules
    Many of the same teams in on Vasquez have been mentioned in connection with Murphy. It could take a significant overpay to get him.
  24. sveumrules
    2022 was only 248 PAs for Jansen, so his 140 wRC+ should be viewed with healthy skepticism. At the same time he also posted career best plate discipline stats, career high barrels/hard hit percentage, and all his StatCast expected numbers were in line with his actual production so there are a number of positive indicators too. Steamer seems to be buying in projecting a 120 wRC+ for next year, which would be a decent regression from 2022 but still represents their 4th highest wRC+ for a catcher behind Kirk, Adley, and The Fresh Prince of Chavez Ravine.
  25. sveumrules
    Blue Jays have Alejandro Kirk who was an All Star last year & Gabriel Moreno who ranked between #7 & #22 entering the year and hit for a 120 wRC+ with only a 16.9 K% at AAA as a 22 year old.
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