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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Because it’s a hundred some million dollars guaranteed right now and the future is uncertain. Woodruff won’t be hitting free agency until after his age 31 season. So he’s probably looking at a 4/5 year deal tops through age 35/36 if he doesn’t extend. Lets say 30 million for the next two Arby’s years and then a 5/150 deal in FA, that’s something like 7/180 if he stays healthy and dealing for two more years. Let’s say the Brewers offered him the Castillo extension, 5/110. Then it comes down to is it worth gambling on one’s health and performance for two more years for an extra $70M that might be there or might not. Everyone weighs risk/reward differently. Do the Brewers want to risk extending a pitcher at big bucks with limited payroll? Do Woodruff/Burnes want to risk potential injury in hopes of maximizing future earnings?
  2. sveumrules
    Thinking the Angels might have acquired Renfroe to get Trout extra PAs with some jersey switching shenanigans.
  3. sveumrules
    The trade cleared salary for sure. We won't know if it was a dump or not until the rest of the offseason plays out and we see where the OD payroll comes in.
  4. sveumrules
    Of course there is no trophy for winning the 6th most games over the last five seasons, but it’s a pretty big improvement over winning the 21st most games in MLB from 2012-16 before Stearns & company took over. And how is five seasons and 709 games a small sample? If you prefer the 50+ year sample, the Brewers have been an irrelevant footnote for the overwhelming majority of that time, which makes the last five seasons all the more impressive, even if it didn’t ultimately result in a WS win. Brewers ranked 8th in position player WAR last year. No trophy for that either, but still deeper than 22 other teams, five of which made the playoffs. Of course we didn’t get an obvious needle mover back, Renfroe is projected around 2.5 WAR @ $11M next year, nobody trades a needle mover for that kind of surplus value. I know, I know, the offseason (& by extension the 2023 season) are already over, but what kind of hypothetical move would constitute a “needle mover” for you?
  5. sveumrules
    The Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB since 2018 with a bottom ten payroll. They’ve been pretty good at walking the tight rope necessitated by their financial standing within the MLB hierarchy. Last year they set a new franchise record by increasing OD payroll over $30M and still lost nine more games than in 2021. Turns out money can’t buy love or wins. What kind of OD payroll would constitute “going for it” in your opinion?
  6. sveumrules
    Can I get the PowerBall numbers too?
  7. sveumrules
    Last year the Brewers set an OD payroll record at $132M which ranked 19th in MLB. Their previous OD payroll record of $123M in 2019 ranked 17th. The highest OD payroll rank the Brewers have ever held according to Cots was in 2012 when they ranked 13th at $98M. Mark A could crank OD payroll to $150M and they’d still be in the bottom half. If there is any chance of extending Burnes or Woodruff, salary will need to be cleared elsewhere. Dealing Renfroe (& maybe Wong) gives me hope that getting one of the aces locked up this offseason is a possibility.
  8. sveumrules
    FO must not have wanted to add him to the 40 man that early, have to keep him on it all offseason, burn an option, accrue service time.
  9. sveumrules
    Two guys accepted the QO, four FAs re-signed with their previous team and one FA has signed with a new team. The stove is still room temp across pretty much all of MLB at this point.
  10. sveumrules
    Reading up on the new arms I noticed that the Angels acquired both Junk & Peguero in the same deal with the Yankees.
  11. sveumrules
    I’m fine with this trade. Upper level pitching depth is a weakness which we just addressed via a strength, outfield depth. Renfroe was gone after this year anyway, we have replacements in house & this frees up cash to be used to hopefully address other areas of greater concern.
  12. sveumrules
    Hit 365/435/508 with a 7.4 K% at AAA last year.
  13. sveumrules
    "We're kind of sitting in a chaos cycle of where we're doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, and it's not something we can keep doing."
  14. sveumrules
    "We're kind of sitting in a chaos cycle of where we're doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, and it's not something we can keep doing."
  15. sveumrules
    If they trade him to like WAS, OAK, PIT, CIN, KCR, DET, TEX, COL or MIA it’s definitely personal. If Arnie has a real sick sense of humor he’ll trade him to LAA and be like “if you think this was some kind of chaos cycle have fun playing with Trout/Ohtani and only winning 75 games with a $190M payroll.”
  16. sveumrules
    A players HR total is certainly one part of the equation. But why leave out batting average (Abreu ranked 8th) and on base percentage (Abreu ranked 9th)? Add it all up, adjust for home ballpark & league wide offensive environment, and Jose’s 137 wRC+ last year ranked 21st. Does that make him a “force”? I dunno, that’s an arbitrary determination. It would have made him the best hitter on the Brewers by a notable margin though with his 28.6 batting runs almost doubling the Brewers top batter Hunter Renfroe at 14.4.
  17. sveumrules
    A players HR total is certainly one part of the equation. But why leave out batting average (Abreu ranked 8th) and on base percentage (Abreu ranked 9th)? Add it all up, adjust for home ballpark & league wide offensive environment, and Jose’s 137 wRC+ last year ranked 21st. Does that make him a “force”? I dunno, that’s an arbitrary determination. It would have made him the best hitter on the Brewers by a notable margin though with his 28.6 batting runs almost doubling the Brewers top batter Hunter Renfroe at 14.4.
  18. sveumrules
    Ugly second half for the Bucks at Philly last night scoring only 40 points & turning a 7 point lead into an 8 point loss. Giannis particularly bad at the line (4 for 15) and now on his 6th straight game shooting under 50% from the field. Either way, I’ll take 11-4 with all the injuries this season vs 7-8 to start the season last year with no Brook. POR, CHI, CLE and DAL coming to Fiserv this week. Hopefully go at least 3-1 and maybe see Khris back at some point in there?
  19. sveumrules
    MLB teams care (& for the most part have always cared) more about economics than actual baseball. Cut out all the revenue generators at AmFam Field and the deck would be stacked against the Brewers even more than it already is. I’ll always hold romantic notions about baseball, but also understand it’s really just a vehicle for Capitalism hoping to prey on those romantic notions at every turn.
  20. sveumrules
    Matt Bush and Brewers agree to $1.85M contract for 2023 per MLBTR.
  21. sveumrules
    Matt Bush and Brewers agree to $1.85M contract for 2023 per MLBTR.
  22. sveumrules
    Looks like Javy has a pretty nondescript 6.60 ERA and 5.41 FIP in 43 IP spread over four MLB seasons. Was pretty dominant at AAA last year though with 41 IP of 1.74 ERA and 2.61 FIP with 11.32 K9 vs 3.48 BB9. FanGraphs lists him as out of options.
  23. sveumrules
    MLBTR reporting Brewers have acquired Javy Guerra from the Rays for a PTBNL.
  24. sveumrules
    Lauer is tricky to assess for sure. Over the last two seasons he has 265 IP (68th) with an impressive 84 ERA-. Gerrit Cole & Luis Castillo clock in with 83 ERA- over the same stretch, Chris Bassitt is at 85. Issue for Lauer is his FIP- is a mediocre 104. The guys above clock in at 78, 80 and 88 FIP-, which is why most people would consider them on a different level than Lauer despite similar run prevention. Add it all up & out of 135 SP with at least 150 IP since 2021, Lauer comes in at 5.4 rWAR (52nd) but only 2.8 fWAR (89th). Lauer’s 0.89 gap between his ERA (3.43) and FIP (4.26) since 2021 is the 7th largest positive differential over that stretch. Find a team that thinks that is representative of some sort of skill Lauer possesses (some guys do consistently outperform their FIP over larger samples) and he could fetch a nice return. I’m skeptical myself. I’d rather Arnie give Braun’s old Deputy GM badge to Lauer and ask him for input on how to extract the team from the chaos cycle they’re currently mired in.
  25. sveumrules
    Lauer is tricky to assess for sure. Over the last two seasons he has 265 IP (68th) with an impressive 84 ERA-. Gerrit Cole & Luis Castillo clock in with 83 ERA- over the same stretch, Chris Bassitt is at 85. Issue for Lauer is his FIP- is a mediocre 104. The guys above clock in at 78, 80 and 88 FIP-, which is why most people would consider them on a different level than Lauer despite similar run prevention. Add it all up & out of 135 SP with at least 150 IP since 2021, Lauer comes in at 5.4 rWAR (52nd) but only 2.8 fWAR (89th). Lauer’s 0.89 gap between his ERA (3.43) and FIP (4.26) since 2021 is the 7th largest positive differential over that stretch. Find a team that thinks that is representative of some sort of skill Lauer possesses (some guys do consistently outperform their FIP over larger samples) and he could fetch a nice return. I’m skeptical myself. I’d rather Arnie give Braun’s old Deputy GM badge to Lauer and ask him for input on how to extract the team from the chaos cycle they’re currently mired in.
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