sveumrules

But why leave out August? Hader: 19.06 ERA | 5.2 IP Rogers: 3.97 ERA | 11.1 IP After the deadline Rogers threw 23 IP of 5.48 ERA, Hader threw 16 IP of 7.31 ERA. They were both bad, Hader was worse. The Brewers got a couple prospects out of the deal, that will determine if it was ultimately a success or failure.

Yup. Braun signed his 105 million extension in 2011. After he got popped again in 2013, and his production fell off while the team floundered (380-430 record from 2012-16, 22nd in MLB) there was a lot of talk about how the Brewers could never compete with the albatross of Braun's contract weighing them down. Then from 2017-20 they went 300-247 (10th in MLB), made the playoffs three times and only missed by two games in the other season.

Between positional adjustment and fielding this year, Yelich was at -13 runs (FanGraphs) and -9 runs (BRef) over 671 PAs. That's with a 114 LF/35 DH defensive split for games started. Nelson Cruz (507 PAs as DH only) had a -13 runs (FanGraphs) and -11 runs (BRef) positional adjustment this year. In terms of WAR, once we account for Yelich's extra PAs, the difference between being a poor LF and full time DH is probably a couple two tree runs. Ideally that would be offset by an increase in production from a hopefully more healthy/rested Christian.

BRef (2.7 WAR) and FanGraphs (2.3 WAR) both had him tied for 4th on the team in WAR. That’s something like $9.6 to $11.3 million per win. Sure, Yelich’s production didn’t entirely live up to his contract this year, but that doesn’t mean it was a sunk cost either. Guys like Rendon ($36.5M | 0.8 WAR), Strasburg ($35M | 0 WAR), Cabrera ($32M | -1.5 WAR), Price ($32M | 0.1 WAR), Sale ($30M | 0.2 WAR), [Sale & Price getting 62 million for 0.3 WAR is just too funny], Giancarlo ($29M | 1.2 WAR), Votto ($25M | -0.9 WAR), Heyward ($24.5M | -0.4 WAR), Corbin ($23.5M | -2.0 WAR), MadBum ($23M | 0.5 WAR), Wil Myers ($22.5M | 1 WAR), Blackmon ($21.5M | 0.1 WAR), Hosmer ($20M | 0.1. WAR), Castellanos ($20M | -0.7 WAR), Ryu ($20M | 0.1 WAR), Yasmani ($18M | -0.4 WAR), Bryant ($18M | 0.6 WAR), Ozuna ($16M | -0.6 WAR), Moose ($16M | -0.5 WAR) were the ones really throwing off the dollar per WAR framework this year.

If everybody stays healthy & is ready to go come playoff time they’ve got as good a chance as anybody. I essentially look at the roster like this… Postseason Players: Giannis, Khris, Jrue, Bobby, Pat Regular Season Players: Brook, Wes, Grayson, Carter, Hill, Ibaka Wild Cards: MarJon, Jingles Garbage Time: Thanasis, Nwora Top three things I’m looking forward to are the continued evolution of Giannis, how MarJon/Jingles fit in, and how Horst & team manage to turn some of those RSPs into one more guy that can handle playoff minutes before the deadline.

Not sure if any place tracks % of times a run scored in each split, but with a runner on 2nd and no outs the Brewers 867 OPS ranked 5th. Only NYM, STL, PHI and HOU posted a higher OPS in the split. The Dodgers ranked 28th with a 571 OPS in this split. Runner on 3rd and one out the Brewers 834 OPS ranked 20th, so they didn’t fare as well in that split, but it was also only 46 PAs, about 2% of the Brewers season total. RE24 tracks how many runs a team “should have” scored if they had average performance in each of the 24 unique base/out states. Both BRef (+5.1) and FanGraphs (+8.6) had the Brewers offense slightly positive on the season. We can try to parse different ways the offense could have done better to get those two extra wins needed to make the playoffs, but ultimately the position players improved their WAR from 18.9 in 2021 to 24.1 this year. The pitching staff was a lot leakier, dropping from 26.3 rWAR in 2021 to 15.6 rWAR in 2022.

Not sure if any place tracks % of times a run scored in each split, but with a runner on 2nd and no outs the Brewers 867 OPS ranked 5th. Only NYM, STL, PHI and HOU posted a higher OPS in the split. The Dodgers ranked 28th with a 571 OPS in this split. Runner on 3rd and one out the Brewers 834 OPS ranked 20th, so they didn’t fare as well in that split, but it was also only 46 PAs, about 2% of the Brewers season total. RE24 tracks how many runs a team “should have” scored if they had average performance in each of the 24 unique base/out states. Both BRef (+5.1) and FanGraphs (+8.6) had the Brewers offense slightly positive on the season. We can try to parse different ways the offense could have done better to get those two extra wins needed to make the playoffs, but ultimately the position players improved their WAR from 18.9 in 2021 to 24.1 this year. The pitching staff was a lot leakier, dropping from 26.3 rWAR in 2021 to 15.6 rWAR in 2022.

Offense wasn’t even all that abysmal. 10th in runs scored, 11th in wRC+, 8th in position player WAR. Multiple teams made the playoffs with worse marks in all three categories. But yeah, the bullpen. From 2018-21 they went 146-86, a .629 W%. They ranked 4th in Win Probability Added. This year 36-32, a .529 W%. That’s about 6-7 extra losses compared to 2018-21 (playoff calibre) levels. They were 15th in WPA. Throw in Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer and Houser going from combining for 22.6 rWAR in 2021 to combining for 13.1 rWAR this year & it’s almost kinda impressive they managed to miss the playoffs by only two dubs.

The Brewers batting average of .246 with RISP was 20th, their OBP of .351 with RISP ranked 3rd and their SLG of .450 with RISP also ranked 3rd. Add it all up, and even though they didn't necessarily get the most hits with RISP, their overall OPS with RISP was 2nd in MLB behind only the (who else) Dodgers. The main culprit was just not getting RISP enough to begin with, the Brewers 1,453 PAs with RISP ranked 21st.

In 402 PAs batting lead off this year Yelich posted a 121 wRC+, virtually identical to his career Marlins mark.

Since 2020 there are 340 players with at least 500 PAs. Among that sample Yelich ranks 121st in wRC+ (109) and 117th in WAR (4.6). We’re now three calendar years, 328 games and 1,389 PAs removed from MVP calibre Yelich. At this point, I think the best realistic hope is that he can hang on as a league average-ish player for as long as possible so his contract isn’t a complete zero. I wouldn’t say all hope is gone that he at least returns to something like Marlins form if he gets out of the OF & moves to more of a primary DH role, but I’m definitely not counting on it either. If he could get that wRC+ back up around the 122 it was with the Marlins he’d be a lot closer to breaking even on his salary. The only regular DHs with a higher wRC+ than that this year were Ohtani (147), Vogelbach (126), Harper (142) and Yordan (180).

If the pitching performs up to expectations, the Brewers still make the playoffs even with McCutchen being predictably mediocre, Small not seizing his opportunity & the lackluster deadline. In 2021, the pitching staff posted 26.4 rWAR, 3rd in MLB. This year they’ve posted 14.9 rWAR, 14th in MLB, a drop off of over 11 wins. From 2018-21 the bullpen went 148-86 with that .629 W% ranking second behind only the Dodgers. This year they went 35-31. Had they performed at 2018-21 levels that is an extra 6-7 wins.

If the pitching performs up to expectations, the Brewers still make the playoffs even with McCutchen being predictably mediocre, Small not seizing his opportunity & the lackluster deadline. In 2021, the pitching staff posted 26.4 rWAR, 3rd in MLB. This year they’ve posted 14.9 rWAR, 14th in MLB, a drop off of over 11 wins. From 2018-21 the bullpen went 148-86 with that .629 W% ranking second behind only the Dodgers. This year they went 35-31. Had they performed at 2018-21 levels that is an extra 6-7 wins.

Best bet for 1B is convincing Jose Abreu to come 100 miles North. Looking at the trade market, the only real “needle mover” I see possibly being dealt is OAK catcher Sean Murphy.

Probably would have gone with… Woodruff DH Hiura SS Rowdy CF Renfroe 2B Wong 1B Brosseau RF Mitchell 3B M Bush LF McCutchen C …but that’s why I’m just a message board poster.

Yeah, the writing was on the wall before the deadline. After the franchise best 32-18 start they went 25-27 heading into the deadline. Here are the splits from those two runs of games... 04/07-05/30 (32-18) PIT: 81 ERA- (4th) | 83 FIP- (2nd) | 8.2 rWAR (4th) | 8.6 fWAR (1st) OFF: 228 RS (7th) | 103 wRC+ (10th) | 7.0 WAR (7th) About what what we expected coming into the season, a dominant pitching staff and an above average offense leading to one of the better teams in baseball. 06/01-07/31 (25-27) PIT: 107 ERA- (18th) | 106 FIP- (21st) | 3.1 rWAR (20th) | 3.1 fWAR (23rd) OFF: 239 R (12th) | 111 wRC+ (7th) | 9.9 WAR (6th) Offense mostly held serve adding 8 points of wRC+ and almost 3 WAR, though run scoring fell off a little relative to the rest of the league. Pitching in the tank. Hader missing time and giving up runs in bunches instead of putting up all zeroes the main culprit (+1.5 rWAR first 50, -1.0 rWAR next 52). During this stretch the pitching staff essentially consisted of four guys, Burnes (1.6 rWAR), Williams (1.6 rWAR), Woddruff (1.5 rWAR) and Box (0.7 rWAR). Our fifth best pitcher during this stretch was Jandel Gustave (0.3 rWAR), that pretty much says it all. Throw in the rest of the season to this point (28-30 record post deadline) and the offense at 720 RS (10th) | 103 wRC+ (11th) | 23.5 WAR (8th) has mostly met or exceeded expectations relative to last year's 738 RS (11th) | 98 wRC+ (19th) | 18.8 WAR (15th). Pitching on the other hand went from 83 ERA- (3rd) | 87 FIP- (3rd) | 26.4 rWAR (3rd) | 23.4 fWAR (3rd) in 2021 down to 95 ERA- (7th) | 98 FIP- (14th) | 15.0 rWAR (14th) | 14.5 fWAR (14th). The league ranking in ERA- is fine, but still a 12 point drop from last year's mark and when you throw in the unearned runs the overall run prevention unit is over 11 wins behind 2021. Sure, a better deadline could have bought a couple two tree extra wins, but ultimately Hader has put up -0.9 rWAR for SD and Bush/Rogers have combined to put up -0.9 rWAR for us, so at least we got Gasser/Ruiz to replace Kelly/Peters. Ultimately the Brewers missed the playoffs due to a number of factors, but it's hard for me to chalk up the majority of the blame to anything other than the foibles of pitching. We returned 11 of our top 13 pitchers from that 2021 staff that was 3rd best in MLB across the board, losing only Hunter Strickland and Brett Anderson. Those eleven returning pitchers - Woodruff, Burnes, Freddy, Houser, Lauer, Suter, Boxberger, Hader, Williams, Ashby and Cousins - combined to throw 1,064 innings totaling 30.0 rWAR in 2021. Those same 11 pitchers have thrown 1,025 innings this year tallying only 16.7 rWAR. I just don't see the math on how all the other moves or non-moves can add up to a difference greater than that.

01 Jackson Chourio 02 Sal Frelick 03 Joey Wiemer 04 Brice Turang 05 Garrett Mitchell 06 Esteury Ruiz 07 Robert Gasser 08 Jeferson Quero 09 Tyler Black 10 Eric Brown Jr. 11 Carlos Rodriguez PITCHER 12 Stiven Cruz 13 Jacob Misiorowski 14 Ethan Small 15 Daniel Guilarte 16 Alexander Cornielle 17 Kevin Briceno 18 Jace Avina 19 Hendry Mendez 20 Jadher Areinamo Feel like it could go a lot of different ways after the first thirteen guys or so. My apologies to guys like Hedbert & Eduardo Garcia who while young for their level & tooled up to varying degrees, put up pretty alarming K/BB rates. Or a guy like Valerio whose plate discipline stats for his age in AA were great, but it didn't show up in his wRC+. Or Feliciano who still hasn't quite seemed to figure out the catching part. Maybe next year. By wRC+ & K%, Yeison Perez probably had a more impressive season than Avina for low level breakout hitters, but considering Jace did it at higher levels while playing mostly CF where Yeison is a 1B/LF who has yet to come stateside, I'll give Avina the nod for now. Organization also seems pretty high on Luis Castillo, who made it all the way to Carolina in his age 18 season and posted an overall line of 120 wRC+ | 11.2 BB% | 21.2 K% on the year. Also like the pitching depth whether its relievers like Robinson, Middendorf, Meeker, Garabitos or starters like Knarr, Jarvis, Castaneda, Henderson or intriguing teenagers like Anfernny Reyes, Osbriel Mogollon, Daniel Corniel. Abner could move fast if he comes back healthy in 2023 too. Lastly, have to say my favorite part of doing this at the end of the year is coming across that guy you've never really noticed despite reading the link reports and checking box scores pretty regularly throughout the summer. This year's deep sleeper for me has to be Edgardo Ordonez. Over the last two seasons, as a 17-18 year old in the DSL, playing mostly catcher (273 innings) and some 1B (118 innings) he has hit 293/413/424 (136 wRC+) over 223 PAs with a 14.3 BB% and 21.1 K%.

Yelich has a full No Trade Clause & his contract is about 150 million underwater. He isn’t going anywhere. His last guaranteed year is 2028 though, so only six more years.

Yeah, will be interesting to see how the new format shakes out. Teams that get the bye don’t play their first game until Tuesday the 11th. Obviously ATL/NYM are still fighting for the division, but if LAD, HOU and NYY cool their jets at the end of the regular season a bit you start getting into like a week plus without really playing. Feel like it could favor the #1 WC (who normally has the 2nd/3rd best record anyway) since they have a good chance to build momentum at home heading into the DS, but then they have to use their top two tree starters in the WC round so maybe that mitigates it somewhat.

If you are around Milwaukee at all Classic Slice in Bay View has a really good Detroit Style.

Watch the Cardinals celebrate clinching the Division in your stadium. Use that as motivation to win your last eight regular season games to grab the last Wild Card spot. Go to Saint Louie & knock them out of the Postseason in their stadium. From there the rest really writes itself.

It wasn’t a must win game. Guys with 5 ERAs still win games against guys with 3 ERAs all the time. The Brewers literally won Houser’s last start against a guy with an ERA in the 3s.

Phillies lost. THE DREAM IS STILL ALIVE

Last year Burnes, Woodruff, Freddy, Houser, Lauer, Suter, Hader, Boxberger, Williams, Ashby and Cousins were 11 of our top 13 pitchers by IP. They combined for 1,064 IP and 30.0 rWAR. This season those same 11 returning pitchers combined for 976 IP and 15.8 rWAR entering tonight. That’s the season. The vagaries of pitching.

The extension was signed three years ago, so only six more years. The $215M announced value included the two years still remaining on his original extension from MIA, after this season there is 162.5 million remaining. Yelich has a full no trade clause & while he may not have earned his full paycheck, he has put up 2.5 WAR so far this year. ”Lighten up, Francis” -Sgt. Hulka