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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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It's that time of the year where prospect lists will start showing up, so thought I'd get a thread going to discuss them as they appear. FanGraphs is gearing up to start dropping some rankings soon & it looks like the Brewers will be among the first grouping of teams getting released... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-draft-rankings-and-offseason-list-primer/
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Because neither Hummel nor Fry are likely more than emergency/3rd catchers at the MLB level.
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Trading Gallo for a trio of middle infield prospects then signing a pair of middle infielders for half a billion dollars is certainly some kind of strategy.
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Cubs finally sign someone & it is backstop Yan Gomes for 2/13. Catcher is one of the few spots they already have a legit MLB option, so gotta imagine Contreras will be on the move this offseason.
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Would be nice to have someone that can keep a large lead so the starters do not have to come back in. Yeah, if Wall comes to terms on a buyout with the Rockets I'd love to have him on the minimum, but he probably goes somewhere with a clearer path to playing time. Bench should be fine once (if?) Brook & DDV get healthy. Jrue / Grayson / Khris / Giannis / Bobby with Hill / DDV / Pat / Nwora / Brook is a solid ten. Thanasis / Semi / Hood / Robinson have combined for 859 pretty useless minutes (around 16% of the team total) so far. Brook & DDV coming back for even 20 minutes each per game should hopefully alleviate the need to dip into the back third of the roster outside of garbage time.
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Entering the bye week the Packers have as many wins (9) as the rest of the NFC North combined (MIN 5, CHI 4, DET 0). They are trailing the Lions for the division lead in ties though. Football Outsiders has them with a 31.8% chance at the top seed in the NFC in a pretty evenly matched three horse race with TB (31.2%) and ARI (31.1%). 538 sees it a little different with GB (40%) & ARI (39%) a click ahead of TB (17%) for that first round bye. They also have GB as the current SB favorites at 17% with ARI (14%), TB (12%), NE (10%), KC (9%) and BAL/BUF (8%) the other teams currently above 5% odds.
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If I'm reading the about to expire CBA correctly, the cut off line for the draft pick being after the first round vs after Comp Round B is 50 million. If Garcia had the QO attached he likely gets under 50 million, so the real risk was him accepting the QO & torpedoing what little financial flexibility the Brewers have this offseason vs getting a draft pick in the 70s if he declined. Think it was a win win for both parties. Brewers maintain some sliver of maneuverability & Avi gets a bigger payday.
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I think there are a couple factors at play. From the owners standpoint, they likely believe spending big before the CBA expires enhances their negotiating position somewhat. "Cheap? Look at all the money we just spent." The other issue is just the competitiveness of MLB as a whole. In his capacity as an MLBPA rep Scherzer said something along the lines of he wouldn't sign any CBA he felt didn't address the issue. Boras said only 17 teams are going to try to win in 2022 & sure there's some Boras spin in there but he's still in the ballpark. -
Yeah, maybe the CBA should expire every year if that's what it takes for the owners to spend like drunken sailors early in the offseason. Don't really see Stearns & company getting in on the insanity with our current roster/payroll situation. Good news is that I'd expect them to be more active on the trade front, which has been much slower developing, likely in anticipation of possible service time changes in the upcoming CBA.
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I don't know anything about the return they got, but if they were looking to sell high it seems like they timed it pretty brilliantly. Sure Gallo struggled in his couple months with the Yankees, but Steamer still has him projected for a 123 wRC+ & 3.5 WAR next year which would make him the 2nd best player on the Rangers by a pretty solid margin over Josh Jung (118 wRC+ | 2.2 WAR) or Kiner Falafa (92 wRC+ | 2.2 WAR). Even if they did sell high on Gallo, it would be one of the few moves they've gotten right in the last five years. Since 2017 they've won 305 games (26th most) while spending around 625 million on payroll. Over that same time the Pirates have won 306 games while spending around 330 million on payroll. Kind of miraculous Daniels is still POBO after a run like that. They're gonna need to spend another 225 million in FA just to sniff a .500 projection for next year, which is probably still only good enough for 4th in the ALW.
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Bucks now up to 9-0 in games Giannis, Khris & Jrue have all played with an average margin of victory over 14 points in those games. Boogie will essentially be taking the minutes Thanasis & Semi have gotten so far, which is a pretty low bar to clear.
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If the Rangers planned to spend big in free agency & try not to lose 102 games again, why'd they deal Gallo for a trio of kids with 2023-24 ETAs?
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Maybe Garcia was the most consistent bat on the team over the full 162, but Adames was the best bat on the team. 413 PAs @ 135 OPS+ = 19 runs 515 PAs @ 117 OPS+ = 11 runs
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Revisiting the 2017 International Signing Period
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
If our number one prospect has Eric Thames upside (who's career best season was 1.3 WAR) this system is in serious trouble. Well, to be honest, I left out a couple of things: 1. Martinez also developed his ability to steal bases. Thames never could do that very well. 2. Martinez also can hold down CF. He added those this year. I think he's going to be a very huge asset. Thames had a 40 steal season in the KBO. I don't see how Ernesto stealing 30 in the Carolina League (or whatever its called now) gives him any kind of notable edge over Thames in that regard. Martinez played 518 innings at 1B & 26 innings in CF last year. That looks like more of an emergency option than someone who can hold the position down to me. If the development staff thought he was viable in CF they probably would have played him there for more than 5% of his innings. -
Which prospect traded by Stearns & company for a short term rental has had a detrimental long term effect on the team? I can't think of any off the top of my head which would seem to imply they both can afford it & it is a sound, well thought out strategy.
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Revisiting the 2017 International Signing Period
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
If our number one prospect has Eric Thames upside (who's career best season was 1.3 WAR) this system is in serious trouble. -
Anyone else been watching Yellowjackets on ShowTime? I really enjoyed the first two episodes. Its kind of like Alive, but with a high school girls soccer team instead. Some definite Lord of the Flies & True Detective season one influences going on too. Also does a nice job jumping back & forth between 1996 (when the plane crashed) & 2021 (catching up with the survivors) timelines.
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All the projections appear to be underselling Adames quite a bit too due to his weird splits at the Trop... TB home | 626 PAs | 219/277/347 TB road | 628 PAs | 291/363/495 Brewers | 413 PAs | 285/366/521 The strongest projection so far has him at a .780 OPS, but I'd peg him closer to .850 given his MIL/TB road numbers & placement on the aging curve.
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At the time of the selection PSU was 11-2 with a +173 point differential while OSU was 11-1 with a +342 point differential against a more difficult schedule. Maybe if PSU didn't lose to Pitt or get clobbered 49-10 by Michigan they would have had a better chance. I think the committee picked the team with the better overall body of work.
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The closer I look at the Clay Davenport projections, the more dubious & over-regressed they seem. The Steamer projections look a little more realistic to me... Urias 2021 | 249/345/445 Urias CD22 | 231/320/414 Urias ST22 | 255/344/432 Willy 2021 | 262/337/481 Willy CD22 | 239/314/449 Willy ST22 | 253/330/438 Omar 2021 | 266/342/402 Omar CD22 | 245/318/376 Omar ST22 | 249/334/389 Kolten 2021 | 272/335/447 Kolten CD22 | 254/322/394 Kolten ST22 | 265/335/409 Rowdy 2021 | 242/305/414 Rowdy CD22 | 234/306/451 Rowdy ST22 | 258/328/482 Lorenzo 2021 | 257/329/401 Lorenzo CD22 | 232/299/352 Lorenzo ST22 | 265/336/397 Yelich 2021 | 248/362/373 Yelich CD22 | 239/348/430 Yelich ST22 | 258/369/458
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The individual player projections are available on Clay Davenport’s website, but you have to view each player’s page individually to see them. Ah, thanks EB. Went to his website, but the last update was September & there was no obvious link to 2022 projections I could see so I didn't really click around much beyond that.
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After regressing in real time & posting an 86 OPS+ over his 211 post-trade PAs with the Padres, San Diego has decided to move on from Frazier, dealing him to the Mariners for Ray Kerr & Corey Rosier.
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I think those projections are realistically closer to pretty average than pretty horrifying. Not sure where Cream City Prospects pulled them from as I couldn't find any other 2022 Davenports elsewhere on the interwebs, but I'd imagine the offensive projections for teams like the Pirates, Marlins, Rangers, Orioles, DBacks, Royals, Cubs, Guardians & Nationals would provide a better proxy for horror. With a couple additions at COF/1B/DH (typically the easiest positions to find offense at) the Brewers should be well positioned for another Top Ten position player group in 2022 like Stearns & company have assembled each of the last three full seasons... 2021: 22.2 WAR (10th) 2019: 24.2 WAR (10th) 2018: 27.3 WAR (6th)
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Over the last five years the Brewers have spent around 450 million to win 395 games, the Mets have spent around 725 million dollars to win 337 games. They also have Lindor (10/341 remaining), Cano (2/48 remaining) & Carrasco (1/15 remaining) on the books which might make one gulp twice. No wonder Cohen is apparently banking on the hope he can maybe buy our POBO next year.
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I believe the Steamer projections are already available for 2022 & FanGraphs just started publishing their team ZiPS articles with the DBacks dropping today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-arizona-diamondbacks/ Possible trade target Ketel Marte comes in at 537 PAs | 119 OPS+ | 3.3 WAR, which seems a little light to me. Over the last four years he is at 1777 PAs | 127 OPS+ | 14.0 WAR & heading into his age 28 season. His 149/143 OPS+ marks in 2019/21 are probably a little over his skis, but I'd probably project him around a 130 OPS+. Recent Arizona 40 man addition Cooper Hummel also clocks in with a 94 OPS+ projection.
