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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Kepler kind of reminds me of Heyward. Defense first RF who looks like they should be a lot better at the plate than they actually are. Max's BABIP really fell off the table after 2017. Checking Target Field park factors on StatCast they have it 2% above average for wOBA on contact from 2015-17, but 4% below average for 2019-21 so could maybe be some home stadium effect in there. His infield fly ball rate is also about 3% above average which will eat into BABIP too. StatCast also has his sprint speed between 70th-80th percentile for his entire career until last year when it dipped down to 60th percentile.
  2. sveumrules
    Turang should be ready to get his feet wet at some point this summer if he isn't dealt in the interim.
  3. sveumrules
    WFT just happened
  4. sveumrules
    Rodgers will be coming out with a massive chip on his shoulder, which should hopefully offset the lack of practice time. If I was a gambler I'd feel pretty good about the Packers covering, especially with how improved the defense has looked over the last month or so.
  5. sveumrules
    Brosseau has only played about 6% of his career innings in the OF, 56 of 892, so probably more of a 6th/7th OF behind Yelich, Cain, Taylor, JBJ & whoever else they acquire this offseason. He's played primarily 2B (404 innings, +4 DRS) & 3B (328 innings, +4 DRS) with a litte 1B (100 innings, +3 DRS) also mixed in. A plus defender at all three non SS infield spots with a career 131 wRC+ against LHP seems like a pretty good fit with our current IF group.
  6. sveumrules
    There was no excitement expressed in the posts preceding yours. You pretending there was to push your agenda tells you all you need to know, really. No single move changes a franchise, it is the combination of all moves made. In the four years before Stearns & company got here the Brewers won the 21st most games in MLB with a .474 W%. In the six years since the Brewers have won the 8th most games in MLB with a .537 W%. That is why he is desired in baseball circles.
  7. sveumrules
    Former Brewers reliever Joakim Soria calling it quits after a 15 year MLB career. Since debuting in 2007 Joakim ranks 4th in rWAR (18.6), 5th in fWAR (15.5) & 5th in WPA (+20.74) among all relievers. Pretty nice career for anyone, much less a Rule 5 pick.
  8. sveumrules
    The Brewers looming arbitration situation could definitely require some tricky decisions over the next couple few offseasons, but if the A's had the Brewers stadium, ownership, fan support & payroll capability they would probably be adding to their team this offseason instead of selling off key pieces to the highest bidders.
  9. sveumrules
    Nobody knows that Stearns is leaving after next season.
  10. sveumrules
    Is Brice Turang a good enough prospect to headline a Marte deal or is he the 23rd best prospect in the system as you voted him in the midseason poll? Both can't be true. Why would the DBacks want Lauer, who will be a free agent before they have any chance of being relevant again?
  11. sveumrules
    Rays have been fine since Friedman left for LA. Astros have been fine since Luhnow got fired/suspended/whatever. Stearns has earned the right to do whatever he wants & I'm not particularly worried should he choose to depart some time in the future. Even if somehow the whole organization falls to shambles after he leaves...just think of all the draft picks!!
  12. sveumrules
    Still only 10 players from Japan that have cracked even 1,000 PAs in MLB & the Brewers signed the 4th best one (Nori Aoki | 102 OPS+ | 10.4 WAR) almost on accident. But yeah, looking at the full list, it is mostly middle IF, with the only real corner bats being Hideki Matsui (who was a success) & Fukudome (who was older/already on the downside when he came over). Hideki hit 304/413/582 in Japan then hit 295/371/485 (125 OPS+) in his first five MLB seasons. Suzuki is coming over two years younger and has hit a very Matsui-esque 315/415/571 in Japan so far. Every NPB player with over 1,000 MLB PAs... Ichiro | 107 OPS+ | 60.0 WAR Hid Matsui | 118 OPS+ | 21.2 WAR Aoki | 102 OPS+ | 10.4 WAR Ohtani | 137 OPS+ | 10.1 WAR Tad Iguchi | 93 OPS+ | 6.4 WAR Johjima | 91 OPS+ | 5.3 WAR Kaz Matsui | 83 OPS+ | 5.3 WAR Iwamura | 92 OPS+ | 4.5 WAR Fukudome | 99 OPS+ | 4.4 WAR So Taguchi | 86 OPS+ | 2.2 WAR
  13. sveumrules
    Grayson with his best game as a Buck so far last night, 25 points on 8-13 FG / 5-9 3P. Back to back against NYK is probably a loss tonight, but looking at their next seven games after that - @BOS @ATL vsLAL vsOKC vsORL vsORL vsDET - they should hopefully be back on the right side of .500 by Thanksgiving.
  14. sveumrules
    Ramirez (138 OPS+, 19.7 WAR since 2018) is a little better than Olson (132 OPS+, 15.3 WAR since 2018), so he will likely net a slightly better package in return. I'd probably prefer Olson since he is a better fit positionally & shouldn't cost quite as much in prospect capital.
  15. sveumrules
    DRS has been tracked since 2003. The last team to win the World Series with a negative DRS was STL back in 2011 with a -5 mark, so essentially average. The only other teams to win the WS since 2003 while grading out negatively per DRS were the 2009 Yankees (-22), 2004 Red Sox (-26) and 2003 Marlins (-21). Of the 38 teams to make it to the World Series in the DRS era I would classify 7 of them as bad (-38 to -21), 8 of them as average (-11 to +15), 11 as good (+20 to +39) and 12 as excellent (+49 to +107). Here is the full list... 03: FLA (-21) NYY (-36) 04: BOS (-26) STL (+51) 05: CHW (+39) HOU (+62) 06: STL (+55) DET (+54) 07: BOS (+2) COL (+34) 08: PHI (+76) TBR (+15) 09: NYY (-22) PHI (+7) 10: SFG (+23) TEX (-21) 11: STL (-5) TEX (-5) 12: SFG (+11) DET (-29) 13: BOS (+22) STL (-38) 14: SFG (+20) KCR (+27) 15: KCR (+35) NYM (-11) 16: CHC (+107) CLE (+41) 17: HOU (+21) LAD (+65) 18: BOS (+10) LAD (+55) 19: WAS (+26) HOU (+97) 20: LAD (+27) TBR (+24) 21: ATL (+49) HOU (+78)
  16. sveumrules
    Cain at 5/80. Garza at 4/50. ARam at 3/36. Lohse at 3/33. Wolf at 3/30.
  17. sveumrules
    MLB Player Agents out here dreaming Bowden was still a GM. MLBTR & FanGraphs both have Belt accepting the qualifying offer.
  18. sveumrules
    MLBTR also dropped their list today, which appears to be a little more bullish than the FanGraphs estimates... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html Brewers only predicted as a destination for Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto & Nelson Cruz by the MLBTR writers who hazarded guesses.
  19. sveumrules
    Castellanos: 4,168 innings in RF | 74 innings in LF | 1 assist every 177 innings Yelich: 5,487 innings in LF | 1,621 innings in RF | 1 assist every 257 innings I mean sure, one could choose to play each in the position that the other is more familiar with & put the guy with the weaker arm in RF, but why?
  20. sveumrules
    Hummel can't crack Arizona's 40 man & they are the worst team in MLB. Coming into the season he last caught 64 innings at A+ in 2018. Thinking he would be a legitimate option to catch for an MLB contender in 2021 makes considerably less sense than giving that spot to Maile, who is a proven MLB catcher & had an option remaining. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Piña comes back, but I don't think he'll be getting a contract that runs through his 41st birthday.
  21. sveumrules
    FanGraphs released their Top 50 Free Agents article today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/ Bryant at 6/150 or 8/200 is prolly a little too rich for Mark A's blood, but hopefully there's enough in the couch cushions for a Schwarber or Castellanos in that 60 million-ish range. Marte & Taylor are other guys in that neighborhood that I could see Stearns & company getting in on if they are given that kind of room in the budget.
  22. sveumrules
    I didn't see the game but drawing this conclusion from his first meaningful live action is insane. The guy and team learned he was starting 4 days ago. Before anyone says it, the standard simply can't be that Jordan Love should look as good as Aaron Rodgers did against the Cowboys. Rodgers may be a top 3 QB ever. Everyone needs to accept that the level of play we've seen at QB isn't going to continue. But to claim "with hard work" his ceiling is a backup? I thought after the Bucks don't have the will to win and the Packers CAN'T best the Cardinals you'd cool it for a little with these spicy takes. It's hardly a spicy take. I've been saying this since the day he was drafted. So what you are saying is Love's performance confirmed your existing bias?
  23. sveumrules
    UPDATE BUF 6 - JAX 9
  24. sveumrules
    You can refuse to accept it, but all the players that signed huge free agent contracts & subsequently bombed absolutely contribute to the dollar per WAR calculations because they represent the inherent risks of the whole process. No doubt there are limitations in saying 1 WAR equals X dollars & the reality of how front offices actually operate is much more complicated, but picking out a handful of free agents that are retroactively similar in production & saying that should be the baseline doesn't get us any closer to the truth. However one wants to slice it, Yelich/Cain both provided some degree of production & didn't prevent the team from easily winning their division, so in my opinion anyway, while they may not have completely "earned" their salary, it also wasn't "wasted". You provided plenty of examples of what wasted salary actually looks like.
  25. sveumrules
    Because that would have been the sensible thing to do & well, they are the Rockies.
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