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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Marte at 281/381/511 (145 wRC+) should have the inside track on silver slugger over Turang at 289/356/445 (125 wRC+). Brice's only real advantage is playing time with with 100 extra PA, but Ketel has seven more HR in his 100 fewer PA and a .229 ISO compared to a .159 ISO for Brice-o. Turang is under Arby control through 2029, so if he does price his way out of Milwaukee it will probably mean he's had three or four more really good years in the interim. I'll take that.
  2. sveumrules
    Would guess Pratt will be the full time SS at Nashville next year with Made behind him as the full time SS at Biloxi. Unless Jesus really pushes the issue shouldn't be much of a logjam until we are going into the 2027 season with both of them potentially ready for MLB action.
  3. sveumrules
    If I didn’t know any better I’d say Wichrowski gave up that leadoff single bottom two just to set up the Pratt to Made to Burke 6-4-3 double play. Records the third out of the frame via K.
  4. sveumrules
    After posting -13 DRS and -16 FRV over 2,833 innings with the White Sox from 2021-25, Vaughn has maybe flipped the script on his defense with the Brewers too at +1 DRS | +2 FRV in a still pretty small sample of 426 innings. For reference Hoskins was -7 DRS | -8 FRV over 4,195 innings with the Phillies, but has also been a little better with the Brewers at -1 DRS | -2 FRV over 1,445 innings. I'd probably give the edge to Vaughn at this point for having better recent results and being five years younger, but he was worse than Hoskins by the metrics before getting here so it's probably not a very big difference either way.
  5. sveumrules
    Whoops, yeah typo. Numbers quoted are since July 6th.
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah, looks like 11 W - 4 L since August 22nd is tied with SF for best record over that stretch. Wyatt Langford (67 PA of 172 wRC+), Josh Jung (60 PA of 153 wRC+), Joc Pederson (42 PA of 144 wRC+) and Adolis Garcia (40 PA of 186 wRC+) have been doing most of the big damage for them during that stretch.
  7. sveumrules
    Remember when the old joke was that teams would call up any random lefty just to face the Brewers and pick up an easy win? Brewers are an MLB best 28 W - 15 L versus LHP this year. They are also an MLB best 43 W - 29 L on the road. What's that you say, the Rangers are over .500? The Brewers 51 W - 38 L mark against teams over .500 is tied for the best in MLB. They are only sixth with a 25 W - 17 L inter-league record though, so no guarantees.
  8. sveumrules
    Full season TEX is #1 with a 3.48 ERA and MIL is #2 with a 3.59 ERA. Starting April 1st after the Brewers spotted the rest of MLB four games just for the fun of it, MIL is #1 with a 3.36 ERA and TEX is #2 with a 3.46 ERA. Move that arbitrary start point up to July 6th (Woodruff's 1st start) and the Brewers are 1st with a 3.29 ERA while TEX drops to 5th with a 3.83 ERA. On the other side of the ball, Brewers are #2 at 5.11 runs scored per game on the year, while Rangers are 21st at 4.26 R/G.
  9. sveumrules
    Yup. Gasser dealing in AAA too (24.2 IP of 56 ERA- | 64 FIP-) could be another one.
  10. sveumrules
    Yesterday was the 100th game pitched by the five current members of the rotation. Peralta (18 W - 11 L), Priester (19 W - 7 L), Quintana (15 W - 7 L), Misio (8 W - 4 L), and Woodruff (9 W - 2 L) have combined for a pretty nice 69 W - 31 L team record in those 100 games.
  11. sveumrules
    Blake has the 2nd most games & PA in the system this year just behind Lara. Would probably mash in the hitter friendly AFL environs (especially if the BLX power surge carries over) but could also see the Brewers prioritizing players who didn’t play as much during the season.
  12. sveumrules
    The bullpen is hardly weary today. Neither Rodriguez nor Yoho have even pitched since being recalled. Payamps hasn’t pitched in two days.
  13. sveumrules
    If they hold on to win this game the Brewers will improve to 8 W - 4 L in Misio’s 12 starts this year. Getting bent out of shape about his IP total (when every out he records establishes a new career high) is seriously missing the forest for the trees.
  14. sveumrules
    Brewers 23 W - 11 L record since August 1st is still the best in MLB.
  15. sveumrules
    Batting average will always matter (it’s counted twice in OPS after all as the foundation of both OBP/SLG), but it’s just one slice of the pie (as opposed to being considered the majority of the pie like it was before Moneyball). Anyone saying batting average doesn’t matter at all is just as off base as everyone that overvalued it for so long. Believe that Luis Arraez is a free agent this year so we’ll have a perfect test case for how much MLB clubs value someone who only hits singles (and never walks, or hits for power, or plays good defense, or runs the bases particularly well).
  16. sveumrules
    “There isn’t a target date,” Murphy said. “We just feel like with our roster the way it is right now, he’s a first baseman and a DH. We have both of those potions right now and we have the opposite-handed, the left-handed, hitter for pinch-hit situations. So to thread the needle, we still feel like we need a little more time.”
  17. sveumrules
    Did not watch, but he was on four days rest after throwing 85 pitches four days ago. Believe the Brewers generally abbreviate the length / pitch count on those four days rest starts. That's what I'll tell myself, anyway.
  18. sveumrules
    PCA's 6.3 WAR at BRef tops the NL, but his 5.3 WAR at FanGraphs is only 5th in the Senior Circuit. Typically when the two disagree to such an extent it's over defense, and there is definitely some of that at play here with +24 runs for fielding/position adjustment on BRef versus only +17.9 for the same on FanGraphs. But PCA's slug heavy profile at the plate is also overrated at BRef with a 124 OPS+ shaking out to +15 batting runs. His 115 wRC+ over at FanGraphs does a better job accounting for his comically low OBP and has only netted him +9 batting runs so far. I would guess his eventual MVP placement will end up closer to his fWAR ranking than his bWAR ranking.
  19. sveumrules
    Which 13 pitchers do you have slotted above Koenig?
  20. sveumrules
    Thanasis is the best 15th Man in the Association, because it means Giannis is your 1st Man.
  21. sveumrules
    "The Brewers System runs deep, so deep, so deep put you butt to sleep" - Ice Cube, probably
  22. sveumrules
    Definitely a lot to like about the stat line. His 157 wRC+ on the island last year was third in the org behind Pena (173) & Made (167), and just ahead of Jose Anderson (147). Followed that up with a 149 wRC+ in 92 Arizona PA this year before the injury. Career 50 BB to 42 K ratio, and has shown a little pop with a .147 ISO that is in the same neighborhood as guys like Jadher (.153), Payne (.152), Burke (.143), Yophery (.137), and Handelfry (.136) these last couple years.
  23. sveumrules
    Jesus MadeLuis PenaJeferson QueroRobert GasserLogan HendersonCooper PrattMarco DingesLuke AdamsAndrew FischerBraylon PayneLuis LaraJosh AdamczewskiColeman CrowTyson HardinBishop LetsonEthan DorchiesJosh KnothBryce MeccageJD ThompsonCraig Yoho Not a whole lot of movement for me from last vote. Bumped Quero / Gasser a couple spots up in the #3 to #5 already some MLB / on the cusp tier due to getting healthier. Slid Adamczewski up to the bottom of the #6 to #12 position player tier with his return from injury. Pitchers from #13 to #20 are more or less ordered by proximity / health status with the new guy and reliever Yoho at the end. Big insert for me from just outside to the Top 20 up to #11 is Luis Lara though. Here are a pair of Biloxi stat groupings as of August 27... 259/368/345 (116 wRC+) 13.9 BB% | 15.7 K% 35 SB / 6 CS 249/354/365 (115 wRC+) 12.8 BB% | 15.1 K% 28 SB / 5 CS Pretty dang close. Pratt has shown a little more pop (.116 vs .086 ISO), is a SS, and has a bigger frame to dream on some more future power at some point so he's no doubt the better prospect of the two, but with Lara keeping pace from a production standpoint while being a few months younger and playing a top end CF himself felt like he had earned the boost. Has improved each of his walk rate (8.4% to 13.9%), BABIP (.287 to .313), and SB success rate (76.3% to 85.4%) from last year in Wisco while maintaining an identical 15.7% K rate.
  24. sveumrules
    9 W - 9 L (with a +4 run differential) so far on the Dreaded Stretch. We had an 8.0 game division lead entering, and a 6.5 game division lead today. According to FanGraphs our odds of securing a bye (87.8%) and winning the division (91.1%) entering the stretch have increased to 94.6% and 96.0% as of today. The Brewers 21 W - 9 L record in August was 2.5 games better than anyone else in MLB for the month. Is it safe to say the Brewers survived the Dreaded Stretch and maybe even navigated the trade deadline just fine, or am I in a game thread?
  25. sveumrules
    Checking the MiLB leaderboard at FanGraphs it looks like Manuel Rodriguez is one of only eight pitchers to have thrown at least 150 IP between their age 18-19 seasons these last two years. If you do click the link you'll also notice the only player to have hit 150 IP these last two years between their age 17-18 seasons, Melvin Hernandez. Back to Manuel Rodriguez, his 6.38 K/BB ratio is 3rd best on that entire 449 pitcher leaderboard (regardless of age) with his 3.5 BB% coming in at the 2nd lowest and his 0.99 WHIP 4th lowest. Back to Melvin Hernandez, his 0.16 HR/9 is thee very lowest on that leaderboard and his 5.2 BB% is 12th lowest, though playing at the lowest levels is surely a factor in that HR9 especially, but either way pretty impressive stuff. Some other high Brewers rankings on the board include Misio (.168 AVG | 1st), Logan Henderson (1.01 WHIP | 6th and 4.90 K/BB | 10th), and KC Hunt (2.88 xFIP | 6th). If we lower the threshold to min. 100 IP that's enough for Yoho to sneak in at 0.00 HR9 (1st) | 0.98 ERA (1st) | 1.94 FIP (2nd) | 37.7 K% (2nd) | .152 AVG (3rd) | 0.97 WHIP (7th).
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