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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    FanGraphs had him at #29 with a 40 FV. Their 40 FV tier for the Brewers runs from #21 to #37, so just outside of that Top Twenty range in their estimation anyways. TLDR version is they think his issues with command will limit him to more of a multi inning relief kind of a role, but there's still time to figure it out before his 40 Man year. Just looking at the raw numbers, there are 290 pitchers with at least 150 IP in the minors since last year. Some of Tate's better rankings are 2.94 ERA (18th) | 0.58 HR/9 (35th) | .216 AVG (36th) | 48.6 GB% (47th) | 26.3 K% (50th) But the 12.6 BB% (273rd) is so extreme on the other end that it tanks his WHIP down to 1.31 (141st) and FIP down to 3.71 (65th). Believe Spencer mentioned recently that Kuehner had been scaling back his walk rate as the season has gone along. Looking at the game log his last four walk game was on May 23rd, here are his before after splits from that date... thru 0523 43 IP | 23.2 K% | 16.9 BB% since 0523 39.2 IP | 29.7 K% | 8.7 BB%
  2. sveumrules
    On the surface Zavier's 2023 Biloxi line of 236/319/409 and this year's 246/341/412 look pretty close, but big difference in league context between 2023 (.740 league average OPS) and 2025 (.661 league average OPS) so that 2023 triple slash shook out to a 92 wRC+ compared to this year's model being good for a 122 wRC+.
  3. sveumrules
    Looking through the FanGraphs Draft Board and this young hombre sounds kind of like a Brewers sort of guy... #19 Gustavo Melendez (45 FV) 5'9" lefty hitting high school shortstop among the youngest players in the draft... Compact infielder with big rotational athleticism. Swing has natural loft. Short to the baseball because of his size. Crushes fastballs and diagnoses breaking balls well; had a 2-to-1 ball in play-to-whiff ratio on the showcase circuit. Body is similar to Jett Williams and Kevin McGonigle when they came out — a compact guy whose perceived power ceiling is lower than his big-framed peers — but Melendez's skills and sneaky pop give him a shot to be an everyday middle infielder. Fits at shortstop on defense with plus actions and a nearly plus arm; range is closer to average. Has a better shot to play shortstop than all but a few players in the class, college or pro, should be in the late first round mix when the cement dries on this class.
  4. sveumrules
    Sounds like it is shoulder bursitis and he last played June 19th.
  5. sveumrules
    Top of the order - Josh Adamczewski (two singles, walk), Handelfry Encarnacion (HR, double, two singles), and Jorge Quintana (HR, single) - propelled the ACL Crew to an 8-4 win with Engel Paulino (double, walk) and Jadyn Fielder (double, stolen base) also chipping in. Tyler Renz allowed three runs with 6 H | 0 BB | 3 K over 5.1 IP to start things off and Ayendy Bravo finished with three innings of 1 R | 4 H | 0 BB | 3 K work.
  6. sveumrules
    Sounds win 3-2 scoring the winning run top of nine on a Jeferson Quero RBI double. Daz Cameron (HR, single, walk), Quero (single, double) and Jorge Alfaro (two singles) collected most of the hits while Garrett Stallings turned in another impressive start going six innings of 2 R | 3 H | 0 BB | 6 K. Craig Yoho (1.1 IP | 1 H | 1 K), Bryan Hudson (0.2 IP), and Joel Payamps (1.0 IP | 1 H | 3 K) zeroed out the final three frames.
  7. sveumrules
    Both DSL squads came away with wins on the island. Blue won 5-1 to improve to 15 W - 12 L on the season. Moises Polanco homered & walked while Carlos Done doubled, with Carlos Galindo going 4 IP | 1 ER | 4 H | 1 BB | 5 K to run his record to a perfect 4 W - 0 L. Gold prevailed 4-1 (over the Cubs, natch) inching closer to .500 at 12 W - 16 L. Jose Arias handled the bulk of the pitching with five innings of 1 R | 2 H | 2 BB | 2 K work while Juan Martinez (single, two doubles, stolen base) and Eryks Rivero (single, triple) provided most of the offense. Jonathan Rangel also singled and walked twice to keep that OPS north of a thousand.
  8. sveumrules
    Mudcats win 4-2 in a rain shortened contest. Travis Smith went 5 IP | 1 ER | 3 H | 1 BB | 7 K to pick up the win.
  9. sveumrules
    TRats got blown out 12-3, but don’t blame nasty Nestor going four scoreless with 3 H | 0 BB | 2 K. Blake Burke singled, doubled and walked while Hedbert Perez hit his tenth HR of the season.
  10. sveumrules
    Welcome to the site. Definitely one of the best parts of perusing the minor league boxes is coming across guys like Peters and realizing they’re still out there chasing the dream.
  11. sveumrules
    Yeah, Yelich is behind Chourio, Sal, Collins, and Perkins for priority on the grass. Plus Mitchell if he's ever healthy, and Lara once he works his way to MLB. That the Brewers played Bauers 18 games in the outfield so far this year versus only nine for Christian speaks to his likely future role being a pretty near full time DH / 6th outfielder. They've even played Daz Cameron (he of the -11 DRS | -6 FRV for his career) more innings in the OF than Yelich this year.
  12. sveumrules
    Depending what the Brewers internal evals are they might not even view Abrams as a shortstop. His -4 DRS isn’t too prohibitive, but his -30 FRV is eleven runs worse than the next worst SS since 2022 per StatCast’s calculations.
  13. sveumrules
    As mentioned in the article the Brewers are 14 W - 5 L since June 19th, the best record in the NL. But it goes back farther than that. They've really been on a heater since May 18th with their 32 W - 15 L record since then the best in the NL. But wait. It goes back even farther than that. Since April 1st the Brewers are 53 W - 36 L, which is (you guessed it) the best record in the NL. They haven't quite erased those first four games & that fifteen game stretch to start May just yet, but they're getting pretty close.
  14. sveumrules
    Cool article, I noticed something similar when clicking around leaderboards the other day. For as much as the Brewers have been seen as a pitching first team for this almost decade long run now, outside of 2021 they've never actually been too far from average when it comes to Fielding Independent Pitching... 2017 (91 ERA- | 97 FIP-) 2018 (92 ERA- | 99 FIP-) 2019 (99 ERA- | 100 FIP-) 2021 (83 ERA- | 87 FIP-) 2022 (95 ERA- | 98 FIP-) 2023 (87 ERA- | 97 FIP-) 2024 (90 ERA- | 103 FIP-) 2025 (91 ERA- | 98 FIP-) Of course that 2021 team had Burnes (38 FIP-), Hader (39 FIP-), Williams (66 FIP-), Woodruff (69 FIP-), and Peralta (73 FIP-) all operating at peak form. On the surface this 2025 team doesn't look too different from the other non-2021 entrants, but even taking out just those ugly first four March games is enough to move the numbers to a much more 2021 looking 82 ERA- | 91 FIP- from April 1st onward. Move the start date up to May 18th (from which the Brewers 31 W - 15 L record is best in the NL) and it scooches down to an 80 ERA- | 88 FIP-. There's also a fun feature on the FanGraphs leaderboards where you can just compare teams' active rosters. The 13 pitchers currently on the Brewers staff have a 71 ERA- | 89 FIP- so far for the season.
  15. sveumrules
    Brewers 2.7 rookie position player WAR is 3rd in MLB, 1st in NL this year. Brewers 2.3 rookie pitcher rWAR was 2nd in MLB, 1st in NL before Misio’s dominance tonight. Going back to Arnold’s first year at the helm in 2023 Brewers 13.7 rookie position player WAR is 1st in MLB, their 8.6 rookie pitcher rWAR is 5th, and their 22.3 total rookie WAR is also 1st, about four wins ahead of the Dodgers in second.
  16. sveumrules
    Yeah, Tyler Rodriguez is one of it looks like about eight guys (min. 100 PA) of a certain All Walks No Hits No Power type in the Brewers system. Sorted by walk rate… Reece Walling (227 PA) 22.9 BB% | .150 BA | .081 ISO Roderick Flores (130 PA) 23.3 BB% | .221 BA | .063 ISO Luis Lameda (169 PA) 21.9 BB% | .233 BA | .070 ISO Tayden Hall (221 PA) 21.3 BB% | .175 BA | .088 ISO Yannic Walther (130 PA) 17.6 BB% | .178 BA | .075 ISO Tyler Rodriguez (230 PA) 17.0 BB% | .207 BA | .034 ISO Christopher Acosta (108 PA) 16.7 BB% | .159 BA | .091 ISO Kebin Ereu (153 PA) 16.3 BB% | .145 BA | .051 ISO I always thought of it as the Kevin Ereu Club but maybe it should be the Reece Walling Walkers. Obviously coming back from injury, but Tyler Black (17.0 BB% | .215 BA | .108 ISO) just barely cleared my arbitrary .100 ISO cutoff. Couple few other guys just missed out with too much hit like Moises Polanco (21.0 BB% | .263 BA | .092 ISO) or too much power like Darrien Miller (19.4 BB% | .169 BA | .144 ISO), Kay-Lan Nicasia (17.9 BB% | .150 BA | .196 ISO) or Wes Clarke (17.6 BB% | .216 BA | .142 ISO).
  17. sveumrules
    Black is up to 708 PA in AAA with a pretty pedestrian 114 wRC+ now. Here's some Brewers farmhands with at least 200 PA in Nashville from 2023-25 who have outproduced him... Anthony Seigler (267 PA | 142 wRC+) Keston Hiura (367 PA | 140 wRC+) Blake Perkins (201 PA | 132 wRC+) Isaac Collins (509 PA | 126 wRC+) Eddy Alvarez (257 PA | 124 wRC+) Jon Singleton (216 PA | 122 wRC+) Jared Oliva (211 PA | 122 wRC+) Brewer Hicklen (499 PA | 119 wRC+) Abraham Toro (414 PA | 115 wRC+) When you're a bat only player such as Black, and you are getting outhit by your AAA teammates who are a mix of AAAA lifers, backup infielders, and fourth outfielders...your bat probably has quite a bit more left to prove in the minors.
  18. sveumrules
    The Brewers regular lineup has seven guys who are plus runners. Their +12.8 BsR is tops in MLB, 4.4 runs over second place. Having that much speed allows them to outproduce what would be expected looking at just the raw OPS numbers. Brewers have also performed well with RISP again coming in at 919 PA (7th in MLB) of 108 wRC+ (9th) resulting in 305 RBI (7th) so far this year. Going back to Arnold's first year in 2023 their overall 99 wRC+ ranks 18th, but throw in +38.6 BsR (1st) plus 4,195 PAs with RISP (5th) hitting for a 116 wRC+ (2nd) resulting in 1,399 RBI (4th) and that has allowed them to score 1,934 runs (10th in MLB)...far above what would be expected from a boring 99 wRC+.
  19. sveumrules
    Saw Cody Ponce got a shout in the most recent FanGraphs Sunday Notes for the season he’s having in the KBO. Might be pitching himself back into an MLB opportunity with an 11 W - 0 L record and 1.95 ERA plus a league best 161 K over 115 IP.
  20. sveumrules
    Because they collectively bargained and agreed upon terms with the Players Union.
  21. sveumrules
    Haha, Freudian Thumbs.
  22. sveumrules
    Yeah, would assume it will be pretty much a straight platoon with Bauers also being a defensive replacement since he's been less bad in the field (-4 DRS | -3 FRV in 2,034 innings at 1B) than Vaughn (-13 DRS | -16 FRV in 2,833 innings at 1B). For as bad as Vaughn has been, his one potential saving grave is a 262/324/426 (109 wRC+) over 608 career PA vs LHP, not too far off from the 235/340/432 (115 wRC+) that Rhys has posted vs LHP over 97 PA so far this year.
  23. sveumrules
    Funny thing is even with stacked rosters including the likes of Harper, Rendon, Trea Turner, Werth, Zimmerman, couple years of Soto, Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, etc from 2012-19 the Nationals still didn’t break through and win it all until their 5th bite of the apple (after barely making it out of the Wild Card game). The Dodgers have been a bite of the apple organization too. From 2013-19 they made the playoffs every year, won 33 more games than the next best team, and won zero World Series. It took them (thee very gold standard by which MLB organizations are measured against) eleven full seasons to break through and win a 162 game World Series where their fans could attend games.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, my understanding is if they didn’t stretch him and just waived him instead, the cap hits would have been whatever his salary was for each of the next two seasons. By stretching it, the cap hit is lowered each year which created the needed room to sign Turner.
  25. sveumrules
    He's certainly deserving, but ultimately hitting normally wins the day in this kinda stuff so guys like Turang who get a good amount of their value from defense and base running will normally lose the tie breaker if its close. Donovan was the only Cardinal selected, so Brice had that working against him too.
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