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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Funny thing is even with stacked rosters including the likes of Harper, Rendon, Trea Turner, Werth, Zimmerman, couple years of Soto, Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, etc from 2012-19 the Nationals still didn’t break through and win it all until their 5th bite of the apple (after barely making it out of the Wild Card game). The Dodgers have been a bite of the apple organization too. From 2013-19 they made the playoffs every year, won 33 more games than the next best team, and won zero World Series. It took them (thee very gold standard by which MLB organizations are measured against) eleven full seasons to break through and win a 162 game World Series where their fans could attend games.
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Yeah, my understanding is if they didn’t stretch him and just waived him instead, the cap hits would have been whatever his salary was for each of the next two seasons. By stretching it, the cap hit is lowered each year which created the needed room to sign Turner.
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He's certainly deserving, but ultimately hitting normally wins the day in this kinda stuff so guys like Turang who get a good amount of their value from defense and base running will normally lose the tie breaker if its close. Donovan was the only Cardinal selected, so Brice had that working against him too. -
With Ryan Rollins re-signing and Summer League getting underway thought now seemed like as good a time as any for a new Bucks / NBA thread. My best guess at the Current Depth Chart looks something like... Porter Jr. / Rollins Green / Trent Jr. Kuzma / Prince / Harris Giannis / Bobby Turner / Sims Etc...Bogoljulb, AJJ, Tyler Smith, (Thanasis??) Outside of that small forward rotation I really like the other eight guys who should see regular minutes this year, and don't even mind Prince as a 9th/10th guy as long as Doc uses him that way. CLE and NYK should be better than the Bucks again. BOS and IND will likely take a step back but should still be challengers in that three through six stay outta the play in range along with the Bucks, DET, ORL and maybe ATL. Just give me another healthy, dominant, unanimous All NBA First Team season out of Giannis and I'll take whatever comes along with it.
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Would be cool if Trevor makes it as a replacement but tied for second in the NL with 19 saves would be pretty much his whole case. Out of 110 NL relievers with at least 20 IP Trevor's other ranks are... 65 ERA- (30th) | 76 FIP- (28th) | 86 AVG+ (33rd) | 128 K+ (18th) 0.8 rWAR (25th) | 0.7 fWAR (17th) | +0.23 WPA (58th) Abner Uribe has had a more dominant season by pretty much every measure with his 24 holds five more than the next best NL reliever... 53 ERA- (16th) | 71 FIP- (21st) | 87 AVG+ (37th) | 150 K+ (7th) 1.2 rWAR (10th) | 0.8 fWAR (13th) | +0.75 WPA (30th) Nick Mears even has Megill beat in everything except saves and strikeouts and has done a lot of heavy lifting with his team high 31 inherited runners the 2nd most of any NL reliever so far... 62 ERA- (26th) | 61 FIP- (9th) | 80 AVG+ (21st) | 108 K+ (48th) 1.0 rWAR (17th) | 0.9 fWAR (9th) | +0.46 WPA (40th) Ashby is only at 19.1 IP, but he's got Megill beat across the board on rate stats with a 26 ERA- | 61 FIP- | 81 AVG+ | 141 K+ and leverage with a +0.56 WPA too. Pretty nice that in what has been somewhat of a down year for the bullpen relative to recent iterations we still have three guys with performances as good or better than our All Star worthy closer.
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Rizzo and Martinez both canned in Washington a week before they have the #1 pick in the draft. Since winning the WS in 2019 they have gone 325 W - 472 L, only the Rockies at 308 W - 488 L have been worse.
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Brian Fitzpatrick had a couple scoreless frames for Biloxi putting him at 6 IP of 0 ER | 5 H | 1 BB | 11 K work since coming back off the IL a couple weeks ago. Small samples all around, but out of 74 Brewers minor league pitchers with at least 20 IP so far he’s at a 1.73 ERA (5th) | 2.43 FIP (5th) | 2.84 xFIP (4th).
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Truly wild times. Patrick currently leads all rookie pitchers with 2.1 rWAR | 2.0 fWAR and he’s about to be bumped out. Logan Henderson is one of only five rookie pitchers with at least 1.0 rWAR this year, and he’s just chilling in AAA building innings and working on tertiary pitches. Only Skenes & Imanaga topped Tobias Myers and his 3.4 rWAR among rookie pitchers last year. Tobias is now at 58 IP of fairly dominant 65 ERA- | 77 FIP- work in Nashville just waiting for a spot to open up. We went 5 W - 0 L while Bob Gas threw 28 IP of 63 ERA- | 84 FIP- work last year. Maybe not quite an ace up the sleeve, but for something like the 10th starter on the depth chart once he returns from injury? That’s pretty good.
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ACL Brewers go on to win 7-4 with four straight walks & an Adamczewski sac fly adding two runs in the seventh, then a two RBI Engel Paulino double in the eighth.
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Peralta’s option is only for $8M next year, Brewers can afford that. Peralta would probably want $100M plus on an extension, Brewers can afford that too. The question is does it make sense for a payroll limited team to spend that much on a pitcher in his thirties? As much as I love Freddy, the answer to that question is probably not, so my best guess is they pick up the option, let him pitch through 2026, give him a QO, and let him sign with the highest bidder.
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Yeah, I figured they were due for a clunker after the banner year in 2024, but even in a clunker scenario I thought one of Antunez or Fenelon (plus at least one random kid no one ever heard of) would be putting up solidly above average statistical seasons.
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Enderson Mercado went for 1 R | 2 H | 1 BB | 5 K over four innings on the Arizona Complex before Nick Merkel worked a 3U3D fifth. Zona Crew has picked up three runs top six with a Kevin Ereu single, Engel Paulino walk (wild pitch), Josh Adamczewski ROE, and Frederi Montero double. Luis Corobo walk sets up two on, two out for Demetrio Nadal.
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DSL Gold lost 6-2 in the completion of a previously suspended game. Isais Chavez (double), Christopher Acosta (triple), and Francis Sosa (home run) joined Juan Martinez (single) in hitting for the team cycle. Linbel Jimenez struck out four of six batters faced (with a walk and two wild pitches for a little Island Intrigue). Currently trailing 3-1 bottom three in a scheduled seven inning affair for their second game of the day with the lone run scoring on a Pedro Tovar walk and stolen base then back to back throwing errors.
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DSL Blue wins 9-1. Diustin Mayorquin followed Duran with five innings of 1 R | 4 H | 1 HBP | 3 K work before Jhosep Ospino struck out the side in the ninth, now up to 11 IP | 12 K without an ER for Jhosep. Johanderson Tarazona stayed hot with his first HR of the year (plus a single, walk, stolen bag & two RBI), Leonard Rijo chipped in two singles, a walk and two stolen bags while Jefer Lista & Moises Polanco each doubled (with Jefer also adding a walk and stolen base).
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Thurs. 7/3 - Idle in AZ, Busy Otherwise
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Coleman Crow was the return for Taylor/Houser to the Mets. First year back from TJ and has 43 IP of 2.51 ERA with 52 K / 8 BB under his belt so far at Biloxi. His 2.07 FIP is 5th lowest of 712 pitchers with at least 40 IP in the minors this year. Making his Nashville debut tonight. -
When does Arnold start to receive some criticism
sveumrules replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Since Arnold took over in 2023 the Brewers have the third most wins in baseball. Here’s some things they’ve been the very best at… Limiting Runs (89 ERA-) Limiting Hits (94 AVG+) Stranding Runners (105 LOB+) Outs Above Average (91 OAA) ERA-FIP Gap (-0.45 runs) Bullpen Leverage (+25.79 WPA) Base Running (+37.5 BsR) Rookie Position Players (13.7 WAR) Rookies Combined (22.1 WAR) That two weeks of lousy play in May were enough to spark this thread really speaks to how good of a job Arnold has done since taking the reins. Sure, it would be nice to still have Shane Smith in the system, but since April 1st the Brewers rotation has a 79 ERA- (1st), +5.73 WPA (3rd), and 10.3 rWAR (4th) so they’ve been quite alright without him. Complaints about the returns on Williams / Burnes (4.0 combined WAR) are starting to fall victim to math as well with Ortiz, Durbin, Hall and Cortes already at 4.4 WAR with like 15 years of team control remaining. -
Ortiz bottomed out with a .432 OPS through his first 141 PAs this year. Over his last 148 PA prior to today (cool grand slam) he had a .701 OPS. Last year over 511 PA Ortiz hit for a .726 OPS. Some might call it cherry picking, others might call it regressing to the mean. Unless one believes Ortiz is a true talent .432 OPS hitter. The various publicly available projection systems see him as something like a .658 to .694 OPS hitter rest of season, much closer to his recent level of production than his whole season .569 OPS.
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Mon. 6/30: Made to Play in MLB Future's Game
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Good observation. KC affiliate has 35 sac bunts, BAL affiliate has 26, then a big drop off down to the TB affiliate in 3rd with 12. Howzit workin? KC affiliate has 330 R (8th of 12 teams), BAL affiliate has 299 R (11th). On the flip side, Mudcats are the only team in the league with zero sac bunts all year and their 400 R are two dozen ahead of 2nd place. -
Third base has been in a little bit of a slump leaguewide the last few years. In order, from 2012-19 the hot corner hit 105, 103, 101, 106, 107, 103, 106, and 107 wRC+. This is what most people think of when they think of a "third baseman". They kept it up for a couple years after the pandemic with a 100 and 105 wRC+ in 2021 and 2022. Last three years though? 96 wRC+ in 2023, 97 wRC+ in 2024, and a 99 wRC+ so far in 2025.
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29 career bases loaded plate appearances and Joey has two singles, two sac flies, and three walks. Today was his second double play. Definitely not very good (but yeah, we’ll let it slide for today with the HR and nice plays in the field)
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Looks like Frelick to leadoff was June 12th, since then the Brewers have a 136 wRC+ (2nd) and 90 R (1st) with a 10 W - 3 L record so it’s definitely been working (even if its ultimately unsustainable long term) Hoskins (50 PA of 79 wRC+) has been the only bad regular during the stretch, Chourio has been more frustrating (61 PA of 104 wRC+) than bad, but after that the regulars are at… Contreras (55 PA of 116 wRC+), Ortiz (49 PA of 123 wRC+), Frelick (62 PA of 127 wRC+), Turang (55 PA of 151 wRC+), Durbin (52 PA of 167 wRC+), Collins (50 PA of 178 wRC+), and Yelich (57 PA of 193 wRC+). Pretty fun couple weeks either way.
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Megill (27 IP) 63 ERA- | 66 FIP- | +0.30 WPA Anderson (40 IP) 76 ERA- | 96 FIP- | +0.33 WPA Uribe (39 IP) 51 ERA- | 74 FIP- | +0.58 WPA Mears (33 IP) 53 ERA- | 62 FIP- | +0.64 WPA Koenig (33 IP) 105 ERA- | 86 FIP- | +0.57 WPA Ashby (15 IP) 28 ERA- | 55 FIP- | +0.32 WPA Hall (14 IP) 75 ERA- | 109 FIP- | +0.19 WPA Rob Z (13 IP) 49 ERA- | 103 FIP- | +0.37 WPA Yeah, so that’s eight of eight with positive win probability added, seven of eight with better than average run prevention and six of eight with better than average peripherals. Maybe start giving Ashby the lefty leverage innings Koenig has gotten all year and give Jared some lower leverage spots with his recent struggles, but other than that hard for me to complain too much about the current pen group.
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DSL Blue prevails 8-4. Yoneiker Lugo (double, walk), Angel Gonzalez (double, single, steal), Moises Polanco (three singles, two steals, walk), Frandy Lafond (two singles, walk), Joan Gutierrez (single, two walks, steal), Leonard Rijo (two walks, steal), and Jefer Lista (single, HBP) gave them purt near a whole lineup of multiple reachers. Jean Rodriguez had the “cleanest” pitching line with 3 IP | 1 R | 0 H | 3 BB | 2 HBP | 2 K…look ma, no hits!! (couple batters notwithstanding)
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DSL Gold loses 9-2 in what appears to have been a rain shortened six inning affair. Kenny Fenelon (walk, RBI single), Francis Sosa (walk, single, two steals), and Cristian Montilla (walk, single) earned the coveted BF Minor League Game Thread shout outs.
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Kind of interesting feature on the FanGraphs leaderboards where you can select Active Roster instead of the default obviously being everybody who has been on the team at any point all year. For instance… Full Season Hitting 97 wRC+ (17th) | 389 R (7th) | 11.2 WAR (13th) Active Roster Hitting 102 wRC+ (18th) | 370 R (4th) | 11.8 WAR (10th) [everything slides up a notch with just 181 PA of Mitchell, Capra, Dunn and Drew Avans removed from the equation. Pretty crazy they only scored 19 runs combined but I guess when you’re never on base] Full Season Pitching 94 ERA- (13th) | 99 FIP- (16th) | 10.4 rWAR (10th) Active Roster Pitching 74 ERA- (2nd) | 90 FIP- (7th) | 12.8 rWAR (3rd) [lot bigger difference on the pitching side with the jump in Active Roster numbers illustrating just how solid the current thirteen guys have been aside from the inevitable blip here or there]
