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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Five Sunday Games so far with 31 runs scored equals 6.2 R/G when they should be resting. 27 Other Six Days of the Week Games with 139 runs scored equals 5.1 R/G on secular days, MoAr SuNdAy LiNeUpZ pLeAze
  2. sveumrules
    After hitting 10 HR over his first 1,727 pro PA, Luis Lara has gone deep for the SIXTH time already this year (over 131 PA) in the bottom of the first.
  3. sveumrules
    Handelfry with a three run HR and Jacob Morrison has 4 K | 3 BB over three scoreless frames so far as the Warbirds lead 4-0 heading into the fourth.
  4. sveumrules
    In 2025 the Brewers got a 123 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR at 1B, with both marks ranking 10th in MLB. At DH they had a 120 wRC+ (9th) and 2,4 WAR (7th). With all of Yelich, Vaughn, Bauers and Contreras turning in good results and returning for 2026 there wasn’t much playing time available at 1B/DH this offseason. The White Sox had much more run available coming off an 87 wRC+ and -0.9 WAR at DH plus an 83 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR at 1B in 2025.
  5. sveumrules
    Correa has a full no trade clause and is owed $85M through the 2028 season. Could see him maybe waiving the NTC again for a marquee big market WS contending franchise, but not sure he'd do it for Milwaukee or that Mark A would sign off on such a big ticket expenditure even if Carlos was willing to come here.
  6. sveumrules
    I think it's more a reflection of Zerpa and Megill's early struggles. Brewer's relievers were credited with 78 losses (16% of all games) from 2023 to 2025. So far this year they have been credited with eight losses in 31 games (25.8% of all games), with Zerpa and Megill a combined 0 W - 4 L. If the bullpen had maintained that 16% rate here in the early going the Brewers would have three fewer losses and be right on the nose for their pythag even with those handful of games running up their differential.
  7. sveumrules
    Has the offense been generally scuffling though? Average runs per game is 4.51 so far this year and they have 16 games scoring five or more runs (14 W - 2 L) with the other 14 games scoring four or fewer runs (2 W - 12 L). I’d say they’ve been more feast & famine, but either way to be running a 99 wRC+ and scoring 5.33 R/G (5th in MLB) with no Chourio or Vaughn, no Yelich for half the season, plus a number of spots with terrible production is more impressive than not all things considered. Things could and probably should be much worse than they’ve been. A big part of the Brewers positive run differential is that they are also 6th in MLB at 4.07 RA/G.
  8. sveumrules
    Have to wonder if the tepid interest he received in free agency this winter didn't lead to some sort of re-dedication to some of the finer points of his craft. His base running is also at +1.8 in the early going after posting slightly negative marks each of the last six seasons for a combined -5.8 BsR.
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, after Pratt's first 75 PA he was sitting at 156/270/172 (30 wRC+). This recent hot streak (22 PA of 268 wRC+) has raised his seasonal line all the way up to an 85 wRC+. Over his first 99 PA at AAA as a 21 year old back in 2021 Brice Turang posted an 81 wRC+.
  10. sveumrules
    Offensive production at 3B has been down for a few years now. League average wRC+ for 3B ranged between 100 and 107 every season from 2012 through 2022. This is the image of a slugging third basemen that most fans still have in their head. Starting in 2023 it has been 96, 97, 96, and now a 98 wRC+ in the early going this year. As far as "power positions" go, LF is even worse with a league average 96 wRC+ so far this year that would be the lowest since at least 2002, the first season FanGraphs has positional splits available.
  11. sveumrules
    Perhaps yesterday's Spaghetti Policy game can be this year's Cribbage Board game.
  12. sveumrules
    From 2023 to 2025 the Brewers bullpen was credited with 78 losses in 486 games (16%). So far this year the Brewers bullpen has been credited with eight losses in 28 games (28.6%). No Chourio, no Vaughn, no Yelich for half the season, no Priester, no Koenig, Frelick (102 PA of 83 wRC+), Rengifo (86 PA of 38 wRC+), Ortiz (74 PA of 42 wRC+), Perkins (46 PA of 34 wRC+), Matos (21 PA of 24 wRC+), and Jones (16 PA of -33 wRC+) stinking up the joint to varying degrees...this team could easily be in the Red Sox, Mets, Phillies danger zone but instead have never been below .500 all season.
  13. sveumrules
    2026 Gary vsRHP (52 PA) 119/288/357 (87 wRC+) 2026 Gary vsLHP (21 PA) 529/619/1029 (349 wRC+) 2023-26 Gary vs RHP (460 PA) 204/300/399 (96 wRC+) 2023-26 Gary vsLHP (261 PA) 252/318/534 (132 wRC+) Since Black came up they have faced four RHP with Gary getting one of those starts. Looks like they are running a soft platoon at DH at least until Chourio/Vaughn are back.
  14. sveumrules
    2026 Ortiz bases empty (36 PA) 188/278/188 (40 wRC+) 2026 Ortiz with RISP (24 PA) 368/455/368 (145 wRC+) 2026 Ortiz low leverage (34 PA) 194/265/194 (35 wRC+) 2026 Ortiz high leverage (8 PA) 400/571/400 (196 wRC+) Obviously can't expect Ortiz to keep running such insane RISP/high leverage splits all season, but at least to this point he's been making the most of whatever singles he's scratched out.
  15. sveumrules
    Some fun with numbers before tonight's outburst distorts things somewhat... Entering tonight's game the Brewers had 552 PA with the bases empty, fewest in MLB. Their 12.3 BB% is the best in the split, though their .209 batting average, seven HR, and accompanying .091 ISO are all 30th. Put everything together and the walks save them from the basement with a 78 wRC+ (27th). Switch it over to RISP though and the Brewers' 304 PA are 7th, their 146 wRC+ is 1st, and their 114 RBI are tied for 1st. As far as leverage splits go they are are at low leverage (93 wRC+ | 23rd), medium leverage (81 wRC+ | 25th), and high leverage (140 wRC+ | 6th). That (along with +1.9 BsR | 4th) is how they've managed to score 4.89 runs per game (8th) and post +1.08 Win Probability Added (9th) despite an unimpressive overall 93 wRC+ (22nd).
  16. sveumrules
    Obviously only 61 early season unsustainable PA so but still pretty wild to see Braylon Payne with matching .429 ISO and BABIP marks.
  17. sveumrules
    Not a Top 20 prospect currently, but speaking of 2B gotta mention the insane start that Dylan O'Rae is off to this season at 338/453/455 (146 wRC+) with 16 BB | 14 K and 15 SB | 4 CS over 96 PA at Biloxi after missing all of last year injured.
  18. sveumrules
    2025 Misio (66 IP) 145 K+ | 136 BB+ 2026 Misio (32 IP) 170 K+ | 102 BB+ 25-26 Misio (98 IP) 153 K+ | 125 BB+ Obviously will depend on where things settle in (crazy to think there is remaining upside to tap into even with the improvements he's already made over last year) but looking at some guys from 2021 to present the possible range could be something like... Blake Snell (602 IP) 141 K+ | 136 BB+ Dylan Cease (909 IP) 133 K+ | 117 BB+ Hunter Greene (495 IP) 134 K+ | 104 BB+ Tyler Glasnow (472 IP) 144 K+ | 97 BB+ Garrett Crochet (448 IP) 139 K+ | 83 BB+ Paul Skenes (349 IP) 138 K+ | 72 BB+ Tarik Skubal (771 IP) 128 K+ | 65 BB+ Jacob deGrom (395 IP) 155 K+ | 53 BB+
  19. sveumrules
    Collins has a 33.3 K% and -3 DRS | -4 FRV playing LF in the early going with KCR. Throw in -1.3 BsR (which is 297th of 303 players with at least 50 PA so far) and he's at -0.3 WAR. Most 4th OF have to be at least passable in CF, so I think before last year most had Isaac pegged as more of an up/down 13th man LF/2B utility type of guy. For his first 119 PA of 2025 he was exactly that with an 82 wRC+. But then he went on an insane heater with a 175 wRC+ over his next 202 PA (check that .413 BABIP under the hood though) before closing the season with another 120 PA of 73 wRC+ back in line with prior expectations. So far this year he has 81 more PA that line up with that original eval.
  20. sveumrules
    Assuming that hiring Jenkins tilts the needle more towards Giannis staying & signing the $275M extension... between Turner ($26.6M), Kuzma ($20.5M), and Portis ($14.5M) to match salaries plus the 2031 and 2033 firsts (& 2032 swap) available to be dealt this offseason Horst should have enough ammo go out and make another Bledsoe (2017), Holliday (2020) or Lillard (2023) kind of deal.
  21. sveumrules
    Kind of crazy how far ahead of even Chourio's advanced pace Made is so far... Chourio thru Age 18 (628 PA) 290/355/512 (131 wRC+) 8.8 BB% | 23.2 K% Made thru Age 18 (741 PA) 298/402/452 (141 wRC+) 14.3 BB% | 18.4 K% Jackson with the edge in raw power, Jesus with a bigger edge in plate discipline. Obviously a small sample of only 84 PA here to start the year, but Made appears to have somehow turned it up a notch further at 314/429/543 (152 wRC+) with a 16.7 BB% and 13.1 K% in the early going. Over his first 84 PA at Biloxi as a 19 year old Jackson hit 244/286/410 (79 wRC+) with a 6.0 BB% and 25.0 K% and it took him almost 300 PA that year before exploding for 152 PA of 370/421/623 (171 wRC+) with a 7.9 BB% and 10.5 K% from the end of June thru early August. Agree that it's still to early for anything crazy now, but if we get into June with all of Ortiz, Rengifo, Hamilton, Pratt, Jett, and Wilken struggling to varying extents while Jesus continues to make the Southern League look like child's play things could get a lot more interesting.
  22. sveumrules
    Yup, National League is currently +25 wins on the AL in Interleague play. NLC teams are...CIN (11 W - 3 L), MIL (11 W - 5 L), STL (9 W - 6 L), PIT (5 W - 2 L), CHI (5 W - 4 L)...so they account for +21 of those +25 wins by themselves.
  23. sveumrules
    I’d guess it gets incorporated into the framing metrics. Like a borderline pitch is called a ball so they get -0.XX framing runs, but they challenge the call & it’s overturned to a strike so instead they get +0.XX framing runs.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, 8/210 could be closer to an opening offer from Turang's camp than a meet in the middle kind of number, but the offensive uptick Brice has shown for the last 70 games or so now also puts him a notch above Nico from a remaining upside perspective. Say he's gonna make around $35M in Arby's over the next three years then offer $25M per FA season over the five years after that and it comes out to an even 8/160. That's a lot of money to say no to, but I wouldn't be surprised if Brice and his reps want at least $200M to forego FA at this point.
  25. sveumrules
    It's never too late if one is willing to pay top dollar. He'd surely want something richer than the six years and $141M that Nico Hoerner just signed for. Maybe he'd go for something like eight years and $210M, that would give him the record for AAV at 2B and would be the second largest total outlay for a keystone man after Cano got ten years and $240M back in 2013.
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