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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Lose your top receiver from last year Jayden Reed in the second game of the season. Jacobs drops from 4.4 yards per rush last year down to 3.6 yards per rush through the first seven games. Yet the offense has improved slightly from 27.1 PPG (8th) last year to 27.6 PPG (5th) through the first seven this year. Testament to Love maybe making the next step... 2024 Jordan 63.1 COMP% | 225.9 Y/G | 8.0 Y/A 2.27 TD/INT ratio | 96.7 rating | 66.3 QBR 2025 Jordan 70.9 COMP% | 256.9 Y/G | 8.4 Y/A 6.50 TD/INT ratio | 112.8 rating | 73.5 QBR ...guess we'll see if he can keep it up over the back nine. After his career best game last night Kraft is at 15.6 yards per catch with a TD every five receptions (6 TD in 30 catches) so far this year versus 14.1 yards per catch with a TD every 7.14 receptions (7 TD | 50 catches) last year.
  2. sveumrules
    MLBTR previewed the FA SP class today and had this to say about Woody... The two-time All-Star will decline his end of a $20MM mutual option with Milwaukee. The Brewers should make him a qualifying offer, which he’s expected to reject. His camp could take aim at the three-year, $75MM contract which Nathan Eovaldi received last winter. Teams might have enough pause about the shoulder to keep him at two years, but he should pull at least $20MM per season.
  3. sveumrules
    The Pirates having the third fewest wins in the National League made them the best last place team in the NL. Both the NL West and NL East had a worse last place team for the other four teams in the division to stack wins against. Reds won the the 2nd most games of any 3rd place team MLB. Cardinals won the 2nd most games of any 4th place team in MLB. Pirates won the 3rd most game on any 5th place team in MLB. If you think the NL Central was weak with the second most wins of any division in baseball I guess that's your prerogative, but the AL West, NL East, NL West, and AL Central were all objectively weaker.
  4. sveumrules
    There were 108 players in AA this year to get at least 400 PA. Williams hit 281/390/477 for a 156 wRC+ that was nine points higher than the next best AA hitter this year. 32 SB with only 7 CS gave him the 15th highest stolen base value of those same 108 players. He did that while being over five years younger than the average player in the Eastern League and playing mostly SS with some CF and 2B mixed in. That kind of performance is perfectly in line with his draft position and prospect rankings. The Brewers have twelve position players on the 40 Man under six feet tall, so Jett being 5'7" likely wouldn't constitute any kind of negative in their eyes.
  5. sveumrules
    NL Central was hardly mediocre this year. Pirates also had the 5th fewest wins in all baseball, not the 3rd. Wins by Division in 2025... AL East (429) NL Central (421) AL West (406) NL East (400) NL West (387) AL Central (387) First Place Teams MIL (97) PHI (96) TOR (94) LAD (93) SEA (90) CLE (88) Second Place Teams NYY (94) CHC (92) SDP (90) DET (87) HOU (87) NYM (83) Third Place Teams BOS (89) CIN (83) KCR (82) TEX (81) SFG (81) MIA (79) Fourth Place Teams ARI (80) STL (78) TBR (77) ATH (76) ATL (76) MIN (70) Fifth Place Teams BAL (75) LAA (72) PIT (71) WAS (66) CHW (60) COL (43)
  6. sveumrules
    The last time Yelich played OF regularly was from 2021 to 2023 when he appeared in 107, 115 and 122 games on the grass. Over those three years he was one of 91 outfielders with at least 1,500 innings and he came in at -6 DRS (76th) and -12 FRV (80th)...as a 29 to 31 year old pre-back surgery. The last two years, in only 555 innings, he has put up -4 DRS and -4 FRV.
  7. sveumrules
    The absolute perfect signing is a second DH ??
  8. sveumrules
    I would guess less. The difference in salary is little over $8.5M if favor of Peralta, but Burnes had a much better track record leading up to their respective trades... Burnes 2021-23: 562 IP (4th) (ranks among 104 pitchers min. 300 IP) 70 ERA- (7th) | 69 FIP- (4th) | 82 AVG+ (3rd) 133 K+ (8th) | 79 BB+ (38th) | 71 HR9+ (14th) 16.2 rWAR (2nd) | 15.5 fWAR (3rd) | +8.09 WPA (4th) Peralta 2023-25: 516 IP (15th) (ranks among 106 pitchers min. 300 IP) 81 ERA- (18th) | 93 FIP- (39th) | 85 AVG+ (7th) 130 K+ (11th) | 106 BB+ (89th) | 109 HR9+ (70th) 12.4 rWAR (8th) | 8.9 fWAR (23rd) | +5.98 WPA (10th) Corbin was viewed as a legit ace and ended up getting 6/210 in free agency. Plenty scoff at Freddy even being considered a #2 and I can't imagine anyone thinks he is realistically approaching $210M or a $35M AAV in free agency. At the time of the Burnes trade the 2024 rankings on BRef for Ortiz were #63 by MLB & unranked by BA/BPro. DL Hall had already graduated, but in 2023 he was #75 by BA, #97 by MLB, and #95 by BPro. So essentially two back end Top 100 kind of guys. I don't see the Brewers dealing Peralta for less than that when both the minor league system and major league team are in much better positions than they were when Burnes was traded.
  9. sveumrules
    Adrian was a tale of two seasons with a 2.10 ERA | 3.34 FIP in his first 11 starts with CHW, but those numbers tanked to a 4.79 ERA | 4.38 FIP in ten starts to end the year after getting traded to TBR. Seems like a one year, five or so million kind of guy to me.
  10. sveumrules
    Because they thought they could be improved upon? Pettine’s two years were 9th and 13th, Barry took a step back going 13th, 17th, and 10th in his three seasons. Hafley has been the best of the three so far. Is he good? I’d say 6th in PPG last year was pretty good. This year is still pending, lotta season left.
  11. sveumrules
    Packers allowed the 6th fewest points per game last year, they were at the 10th fewest entering today. From 2019 thru 2023 they ranked 9th, 13th, 13th, 17th, and 10th. Maybe not “good”, but consistently better than average and if this year holds that’s four Top Ten defenses in seven seasons.
  12. sveumrules
    Lawlar is lined up to be the starting 3B for the DBacks after they dealt Suarez at the deadline. Maybe if ARI brings back Eugenio in FA or splurges on Bregman it could free Lawlar up for trade, but even then a guy with his pedigree (peaked at #7, ten other Top 30 overall rankings) is probably too rich for one year of Peralta anyway since we couldn’t pull anyone that good for Burnes.
  13. sveumrules
    The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Phillies, and Reds joined the Brewers among playoff teams that had three relievers at 65 or more games. The Padres had five guys with at least 65 games who helped their bullpen put up +10.68 WPA, 10.5 rWAR and 7.6 fWAR which were all tops in MLB. The Yankees had two over 65 plus two more at 64/59, the Tigers had two over 65 plus a third at 64, the Red Sox had two over 65 games plus two more at 62/61, the the Guardians had two over 65 plus two more at 63/57, Cubs had two over 65 games and a third at 57. That’s all twelve playoff teams this year with at least two guys making 65 or more appearances. I would guess most seasons follow a similar pattern.
  14. sveumrules
    I don’t think the order of operations matters at all, if Woody hits FA the Brewers can make a QO. Big questions with the QO would be (1) are the Brewers wiling to pay Woody $22M for one year if he accepts and (2) if he declines will Woody be able to get at least $50M in free agency coming off injury with the QO attached heading into his age 33 season? If he gets at least $50M the Brewers get a pick before Comp Round A, if he comes in under that number the pick would be after Comp Round B.
  15. sveumrules
    Only eight pitchers have ever hit a $35M AAV or higher…Scherzer, Verlander, Wheeler, deGrom, Snell, Cole, Strasburg and Burnes. I think Freddy’s top end is more in that Carlos Rodon 6/162 ($27M AAV) or Tyler Glasnow 5/136.5 ($27.3M AAV) neighborhood.
  16. sveumrules
    Woody & the Brewers decline the mutual option, then Woody accepts a qualifying offer or agrees to a one year deal with some kind of option tacked on the end.
  17. sveumrules
    Last night was the first time I feel like the script finally flipped on UM. Up until then it followed the classic sine wave plot line almost perfectly…ugly first four games and slow start in general to sow the seeds of doubt, insane stretch in the middle with not one but two double digit win streaks (& free burgers), then the coast into the finish line to get some of those doubts back but still did just enough to set the franchise win record on the last day of the season. Win two, then lose two, before knocking out the Cubs at home. Even losing the first two against LAD follows UM, sets them up perfectly for the out of nowhere improbable comeback…but dropping G3 moves it to an almost impossible comeback at this point. The last bit of Uecker Magic appears to have been exhausted on that nutso Frelick play.
  18. sveumrules
    Brewers in six, for the culture.
  19. sveumrules
    BRef says there were 4,172 PA and 2,935 RBI with the bases loaded this year. That shakes out to an average of 0.70 RBI per PA, so your assumption is over double the league average in 2025.
  20. sveumrules
    Peak Youkilis was at 144 BB+ | 111 AVG+ | 145 ISO+ for a 140 wRC+ over 2,786 PA from 2007 to 2011. Like you mention that average is way above what Adams is likely to ever achieve so that knocks a ton of value off right away. I also don't think Adams will get quite up to a 145 ISO+ like Youk did, that would be a Top 20 mark over the last three years (min. 1000 PA) just below guys like Corbin Carroll and Rafael Devers. I'm thinking Adams comes in closer to 140's for BB+, 90's for AVG+, and 120's for ISO+.
  21. sveumrules
    My starting point for comping Adams would be to see who walks a ton, but isn't a superstar like Judge, Soto, Ohtani and go from there. Out of 229 hitters with at least 1,000 PA from 2023-25 Happ comes in with a 155 BB+ ranking 10th on the leaderboard, so that is definitely a good start. Going off that same leaderboard, here are some other guys who will take their walks but aren't necessarily elite hitters that might provide a range of potential outcomes for Luke as a hitter... Max Muncy (127 wRC+) 179 BB+ | 91 AVG+ | 156 ISO+ LaMonte Wade Jr (106 wRC+) 166 BB+ | 96 AVG+ | 81 ISO+ Trent Grisham (107 wRC+) 157 BB+ | 87 AVG+ | 119 ISO+ Ian Happ (118 wRC+) 155 BB+ | 99 AVG+ | 117 ISO+ Joc Pederson (117 wRC+) 146 BB+ | 95 AVG+ | 120 ISO+ Mitch Garver (105 wRC+) 145 BB+ | 88 AVG+ | 112 ISO+ JJ Bleday (105 wRC+) 137 BB+ | 92 AVG+ | 117 ISO+ Matt Chapman (116 wRC+) 133 BB+ | 97 AVG+ | 126 ISO+ Willy Adames (108 wRC+) 131 BB+ | 93 AVG+ | 125 ISO+
  22. sveumrules
    Collins posted a 73 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR over his last 120 PA to close the season, that’s a couple cliffs down from the 141 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR he posted over his first 321 PA of the year.
  23. sveumrules
    Shortstop was the worst position on the roster, so it theoretically should be the easiest to upgrade, but I'm not sure I'm seeing many guys among these thirty three with at least 200 PA playing SS this past year who are going to be realistically available for the Brewers. Someone like Zach Neto (116 wRC+ | 3.2 WAR) is probably taking up the most space in the "good player / bad team" overlap, but the Angels are delusional. They'd probably ask for Chourio and Misio. If the Rangers are truly tearing it down (& the Brewers aren't part of his limited no trade protection) I'd be interested in Corey Seager, but not sure paying $186M plus prospect capital for the age 32 to 37 seasons of a SS (maybe future 3B) is in the Brewers MO.
  24. sveumrules
    Out of one hundred eleven players with at least 200 PA in the outfield this year Collins came in at 123 wRC+ (24th) and and 2.5 WAR (32nd). Obviously he has fallen out of the lineup after fading down the stretch (120 PA of 73 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR to close the season), and there is a very real chance this was his career year as an older prospect who kind of came out of nowhere. That said, looking at the guys above him in wRC+ or WAR on that leaderboard and I'm not seeing too many trade targets. Would perennial rebuilders MIA ship out Kyle Stowers (154 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR) or Jakob Marsee (133 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR) after going 54 W - 42 L (third best record in the NL) from June 13th thru the end of the season? How about TEX dealing Wyatt Langford (118 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR) if they want to tear it down so soon after flying that flag forever? Maybe BOS would move one of Jarren Duran (111 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR) or Wilyer Abreu (119 wRC+ | 2.8 WAR) with Roman Anthony (133 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR) and Cedanne Rafaela (109 wRC+ | 4.6 WAR) also in the fold? Are any of those guys realistically acquirable without giving up Jesus Made? Say a package of Luis Pena or Cooper Pratt / plus Logan Henderson / then Marco Dinges / and maybe even more?
  25. sveumrules
    Durbin (101 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR) was one of only eleven players to put up at least 2.0 WAR while playing third base this year. Of the nine guys above him on the leaderboard I would guess that Jose Ramirez (132 wRC+ | 5.5 WAR), Maikel Garcia (117 wRC+ | 4.9 WAR), Junior Caminero (126 wRC+ | 4.2 WAR), Manny Machado (126 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR), Matt Chapman (118 wRC+ | 3.7 WAR), Max Muncy (140 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR), and Isaac Paredes (135 wRC+ | 2.6 WAR) aren't going anywhere. Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR) and Alex Bregman (125 wRC+ | 3.5 WAR) are the free agent options.
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