sveumrules

The Cots & Spotrac estimates appear to be operating under the assumption that everyone is tendered, but a few guys will probably end up being non-tendered bringing that number down. Neither site is accounting for the JBJ deferrals either with 2022 numbers of 11 million (Cots) & 9.5 million (Spotrac) currently listed, where JBJ's only getting paid 3.666 million next year. Who knows how Brewers accounting handles that kind of thing but the contract was intentionally structured so that the majority of the money is paid out after the contract is over, so I'd imagine that was done with the intention of freeing up cash in the short term, while the deferred payments hopefully shouldn't be as onerous to the team's finances farther out from the pandemic.

Shed salary is one option. Raise payroll is another. Cots has the Brewers at 91 million on Opening Day 2018, which then jumped to 122.5 on OD19. Of course most of that was Yaz/Moose being available on one year deals & the Brewers financials were also probably more robust back in pre-pandemic times. Fast forward to now & Cots had OD21 at 99 million. I feel like the early estimates other users have done with Arby raises etc have OD22 ballparked around 100-105 million. If Mark A & company are willing to approach that OD19 number (& they should be willing to exceed it imo) for 2022 that should give Stearns & company enough room to sign a free agent hitter of Castellanos caliber. Make a trade to bring in a second impact bat & I'd call that a pretty solid offseason.

Here's a list of World Series winners over the last fifteen years with playoff appearances and regular season wins also included. If ATL wins this year they would join the list at 1 WS | 7 PO | 1,208 W (8th), if HOU wins they would join BOS & SFG as the only teams on the list with multiple World Series wins... BOS: 3 WS | 8 PO | 1,274 W (4th) SFG: 3 WS | 5 PO | 1,188 W (10th) LAD: 1 WS | 11 PO | 1,332 W (1st) NYY: 1 WS | 11 PO | 1,329 W (2nd) STL: 1 WS | 9 PO | 1,274 W (3rd) CHC: 1 WS | 7 PO | 1,187 W (12th) HOU: 1 WS | 6 PO | 1,146 W (17th) PHI: 1 WS | 5 PO | 1,171 W (14th) WAS: 1 WS | 5 PO | 1,161 W (15th) KCR: 1 WS | 2 PO | 1,067 W (28th) Looking at the list the most obvious takeaway to me is that winning the World Series is INCREDIBLY HARD, mostly because the postseason is susceptible to large degrees of randomness. If it weren't, the Dodgers & Yankees who have spent however many billions on payroll, and the Cardinals who have some sort of Devil Magick, would have more than one World Series each to go along with their 31 combined playoff appearances as the winningest teams of the last 15 years. But even looking at a list of World Series winners, I still see a lot of heart break. The Royals with 13 years of irrelevance around their blip, the Nationals whole thing falling apart almost immediately after winning it all, the Phillies spending however many billions to not even make the playoffs anymore, the Astros success tainted by banging on a garbage can, the Cubs "dynasty" crumbled largely at the hands of the Brewers, all the sad STL/NYY/LAD fans in those 28 postseasons that didn't end in a World Series win, so what was really gained? If the game was indeed designed to break your heart like Giamatti said, you better learn to love heart break.

You're pretty much describing the Royals fan experience with the first scenario. Over the 15 seasons Dayton Moore has been at the helm they've won the 28th most games (1,067) in MLB, with only MIA & BAL winning fewer games. They won a World Series, they lost a World Series & they had 13 seasons of complete & total irrelevance. Over those same 15 seasons the Brewers have won the 9th most games (1,201) in MLB. They've gone to the playoffs six times, but never reached the World Series. As much as I'd love to see the Brewers go to or heck even win a World Series, I wouldn't trade the last 15 years of Brewers fandom to be a Royals fan over that same stretch. The 13 years of having your summer be over before the All Star Break outweighs the two World Series summers for me.

There is literally no other way to judge the success or failure of one team in a thirty team league without comparing them to the other twenty nine teams in that league.

Brantley put up 17.8 WAR over his years of team control with Cleveland, Cain put up 24.7 WAR over his year of team control with KC & was the best player on two World Series teams. That's quite a bit to give up for 4.9 WAR of Sabathia & 3.6 WAR of Greinke. Short term wins? Sure, but even bigger long term losses.

By having their season end in the NLDS the Brewers gained more than 22 other teams (12 of which had higher opening payrolls for whatever that is or isn't worth), gained about the same as 3 other teams & gained less than 4 teams. There's certainly a lot more room for downward mobility that there is for upward mobility.

Yeah, the two big barriers would seem to be a likely high acquisition cost & questionable defensive fit. Ketel was brutal in CF last year (-15 DRS in 567 innings), but he was +3 in 722 innings prior so maybe the balky hamstring was the culprit? He's also played 2279 innings at SS with +2 DRS & 1945 innings at 2B with +20 DRS, so last year in CF was really kind of an outlier poor defensive showing. While Ketel's never played RF, he should have plenty of arm/athleticism to be fine out there if he has enough arm/athleticism for SS/CF.

Cardinals might want to think about load managing their defense & taking a strategic loss in this one.

Right. Though both contracts were also longer terms than the 2 years that Hader has left, and both Chapman (age 29) and Hendriks (age 32) were older at signing than Hader (age 28) is now. If Hader was a free agent & limited to a two year deal for some reason he should command a higher AAV than comparable relievers got when they were older & signing longer term deals.

The Brewers hit 194 HR in 2021. The average NL team hit 192 HRs in 2021. I'd classify the Pirates (124 HR) as abysmal, the DBacks (144 HR) and Marlins (158 HR) as pathetic, the Mets (176 HR), Padres (180 HR), Nationals (182 HR) and Rockies (182 HR) as below average, the Brewers (194 HR), Cardinals (198 HR) and Phillies (198 HR) as average, the Cubs (210 HR) and Reds (212 HR) as above average and the Dodgers (237 HR), Braves (239 HR) and Giants (241 HR) as much power.

I'd say the Mets trading for Lindor then extending him for 340 million dollars was a pretty aggressive move. Firing their hitting coach at midseason was a pretty aggressive move. Going back a little further, trading Kelenic to SEA for Cano/Diaz was another pretty aggressive move. The Mets aggressive moves haven't produced much in terms of winning anything though. See also Padres, Phillies, Angels, etc...

Melvin 2003-15: 1,024 - 1,081 (.486 W%) Stearns 2016-21: 468 - 403 (.537 W%) Obviously the organization was in a much better place when Stearns took over than when Melvin did, but even comparing their peaks David comes out on top pretty easily... Melvin 2008-11: 343 - 305 (.529 W%) Stearns 2018-21: 309 - 238 (.565 W%) I still maintain Melvin's worst move was hiring Ken Macha, completely misread the room after firing Yost & wasted two seasons of the Braun/Fielder window. Doug was a great transitional GM to bring the team out of the wasteland they had been in for 20 plus years before Mark A came along, but Stearns & company have produced objectively better results & taken the organization to another level.

Looks like ARI opened as 3.5 point favorites with the line moving to 6.5 now. Vegas only thinks Davante/Lazard are worth like a field goal. Lots of opportunity to get rich on this one.

Odorizzi's last year in the Brewers org before being traded for Greinke, 2010 at Wisco, he threw to Cameron Garfield & Austin Stockfish. Some of the fielders backing him up were Hunter Morris, Scooter Gennett, Cutter Dykstra, Khris Davis, D'Vontrey Richardson & Kentrail Davis. Fellow pitchers included Nick Bucci, Maverick Lasker, Kyle Heckathorn, Eric Arnett, Hiram Burgos & Caleb Thielbar. Brantley's last year in the Brewers org before being the PTBNL for CC, 2008 at Huntsville, he shared the lineup with Maldonado, Cain, Escobar, Gamel, LaPorta, Cole Gillespie, Angel Salome & Michael Garciaparra. The only pitcher with significant IP that rings a bell is Donovan Hand. Brae Wright (26 GS | 170 IP | 3.59 ERA) & David Welch (26 GS | 147 IP | 3.90 ERA) appear to have been the "co-aces" with Juan Sandoval (48 IP | 36 K | 27 BB | 3.38 ERA | 20 SV) as the closer.

Another way to think about surplus value is, if this player was a free agent what kind of contract would they get? On one end there is someone like Yelich. If he was FA he'd probably be taking the QO (1/19) or signing for a shorter term to hopefully re-stablish value, say like 2/30 or something. Whatever number one settles upon, his negative value is more than a little cantakerous currently. On the opposite end of the spectrum you have someone like Wander Franco. Under the current setup he has three years at like 2 million total salary, then even if he maxed out Arby's for three years that's only like another 60 million. If he was a free agent he would get a 300 million plus contract easy. His surplus value is so high he's virtually un-tradeable-for. As far as Hader goes, he's probably gonna make almost 30 million in Arby's over the next two years. The biggest recent reliever contract was Liam Hendriks at 3/54, the biggest ever was 5/86 for Aroldis Chapman back in 2017. Split the difference, say Hader would get 70 million in FA & that puts his surplus value around 40 million. You think he deserves a record deal? Maybe its closer to 60 million. Just for fun, here is Chapman 2012-16 (before signing record deal) vs Hader career... Aroldis | 313 IP | 47 ERA- | 42 FIP- | 12.8 rWAR | 13.0 fWAR | +12.21 WPA Josh | 282 IP | 53 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 11.0 rWAR | 8.8 fWAR | +13.35 WPA

Gianni's On/Off to start the year is pretty insane with no minutes from DDV/Bobby yet & limited minutes from Brook/Jrue so far. Giannis On (120 minutes) 115.8 ORtg | 103.1 DRtg (+12.7) Giannis Off (72 minutes) 105.9 ORtg | 127.6 DRtg (-21.7)

Bucks follow up the loss at Miami with their first win of the Bud era in San Antonio on Saturday & a win in Indy tonight with Giannis missing the triple double by one assist.

Packers are 6-0 the last two years when Davante hasn't played. 2019 wins were @ DAL, vs DET, vs OAK and @ KC. 2020 wins were @ NO and vs ATL.

Joey Wiemer’s strikeout rate in 2021 (combined across both levels he played) was 22.2%. If you add in his plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League then his strike out rate for all of 2021 drops to 21.7%. It would be great if he could keep it below 25% as he advances levels. In order to do the amount of damage he’s capable of there is likely going to have to be some give-and-take with his strikeout rate. Yeah, looks like WVB might have divided Ks by ABs instead of PAs. Wiemer was actually below league average K rate at all three stops this year... A: 69 K | 320 PAs | 21.6% (league average 25.6 K%) A+: 36 K | 152 PAs | 23.7% (league average 26.4 K%) AFL: 5 K | 33 PAs | 15.2% (league average 24.6 K%)

Once the new CBA is finished, so probably sometime next spring. So it sounds like we won't be able to sign a strict DH type like Cruz until we know for sure, putting American league teams ahead of National league teams in the pecking order to sign free agents. *not that I want Cruz, just using him as an example. Pretty sure that all transactions will be put on hold while the CBA is in limbo. There is like a month after the World Series & before the CBA actually expires where some transactions could be made, but I'd guess there won't be too much significant activity during that time with so much uncertainty surrounding 2022 & what other changes might be in the pipeline.

Once the new CBA is finished, so probably sometime next spring.

Sheesh what did we ever do to offend Lions fans? I don't even think I know a Lions fan, they are like across the ocean from us. I always thought the UP was full of Packer fans. Jealousy, probably. They've been at the bottom of the division for the past 20+ years and we've been at the top that same time period. Yeah, Favre 23-8 & Rodgers 18-5 vs DET over the last 30 years.

JBJ didn't earn his 3 million in 2021, but there is a huge gap between not earning one's contract & one's contract being a complete train wreck. I'd say a complete train wreck would be signing Stephen Strasburg to a 7 year / 245 million dollar contract, then him getting predictably hurt and only pitching 27 innings the next two seasons, forcing the team into a rebuild that requires them to trade away two more franchise cornerstone type players in Scherzer/Turner, leaving them with a generational talent in Juan Soto, who will probably be stuck on some terrible teams for the foreseeable future. Or maybe something like Trevor Bauer or Marcell Ozuna, who signed big FA contracts then only months later were charged with some pretty serious crimes. Sure, JBJ might not be well positioned to earn his 2022 salary either, but it's not like his contract is going to single handedly spiral the Brewers into a rebuild or prevent them from being competitive. All it's preventing the Brewers from doing in 2022 is spending 3.666 million on a different marginal player.

The Dodgers have made each of the last nine postseasons. They have spent over 2 billion on payroll during that time frame & won 61 more regular season games (like 7 per season!!) than the next best team. Yet, they have only mustered a single pandemic weirdened World Series & are on the verge of postseason elimination once again. It's almost enough to make one think that maybe the MLB postseason is predominantly determined by randomness so there isn't really any compelling reason to get too bent out of shape about the results thereof.