sveumrules

Not on quite as much as a heater as Wiemer is right now, but Zamora has turned it on after a slow start hitting 313/407/451 in 216 PAs with a 16.2 K% over the last two months.

Last post was June 3rd. (team wins the most games in baseball in the interim) "I was right about Lorenzo Cain not playing 100 games."

Just an absolutely stacked FA class. The CBA expiring adds a not insignificant wrinkle too. Really curious to see what happens with Verlander. 2022 will be his age 39 season but with a brand new UCL who knows how long he might be able to go. Greinke too. Guessing at his age, with diminishing stuff & results his best offer might be something like 2/25, at which point he could decide its just not worth it anymore. Even though the Brewers are seemingly set at 2B/SS/3B for 2022 & beyond, I could see them maybe getting in on Semien if the glut of SS & him being a lil older pushes the price down. His 5.0 WAR is currently second this year, and he has thee most WAR in MLB since 2019 on account of a the 2nd most PAs, a 129 wRC+, +7.1 on the bases, +26.0 on defense and Mike Trout only playing 223 games.

Yup. Looking at how the voting shook out there are around 21/22 guys who ended up with 100+ points & appeared on over half the ballots who are pretty much the consensus prospects. After that, the margins are so thin that you could really put just about anyone in those last couple few spots & not have it be that much of a stretch.

Speaking of Hummel, what happened to your boy Clancy? 246/356/377 so far in the hitters paradise of Reno with his walk rate down to 13.7% vs 24.4% at Nashville. Meanwhile, Arizona has the 2nd worst record in MLB with 30 year old Christian Walker putting up a 74 OPS+ at 1B, 35 year old Asdrubal Cabrera putting up a 96 OPS+ at 3B, 33 year old David Peralta putting up an 88 OPS+ in LF, and 33 year old Kole Calhoun putting up a 73 OPS+ in RF. The D-Backs have also given the call to guys like Jake Hager (15 OPS+), Drew Ellis (26 OPS+) and Bryan Holaday (54 OPS+) instead of Hummel. You'd think with so many old/terrible guys getting PAs in ARI that Cooper could crack the roster somewhere, maybe in September?

That hasn't been an issue. This is the best team in Brewers history as of today's date... 2021: 74-47 2011: 74-52 2008: 72-55 1982: 69-50 2018: 69-57 No need to fix what isn't broken & has been working exceptionally well. That Hader has already surpassed his WPA from 2018-19 by a significant margin, with over a month of the season remaining, all while throwing notably fewer innings indicates to me that the current set up would be very difficult to improve upon.

Hader is having his best season ever this year, not sure why anyone would be looking to change his usage to a role where he would have to put more stress on his arm in order to have less of an impact on winning games... 2018: 81 IP | 60 ERA- | 54 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | +3.30 WPA 2019: 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 70 FIP- | 2.7 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | +3.15 WPA 2021: 43 IP | 40 ERA- | 42 FIP- | 2.3 rWAR | 2.0 fWAR | +3.94 WPA

Thought this was kind of interesting when looking at Arenado's numbers the other day. During his seven seasons with the Rockies he averaged +18 DRS per 150 games. So far this year he is at +2 DRS in 115 games. Rockies 3B (Ryan McMahon & Joshua Fuentes) are at +21 DRS. Meanwhile, it seems like park effects are doing their job on offense with Arenado's 128 OPS+ so far this season virtually identical to the 129 OPS+ he posted during his peak with the Rockies from 2015-19.

That 14-45 road record, though. Colorado should be drafting Top 5 with Baltimore, Arizona, Pittsburgh & Texas, but they won too many games at home so they would be drafting 10th if the season ended today. Front office can't even lose right.

If you think Fry & Wilson will only fill bench roles, why rank them higher than Mitchell & Small who you think will both be good?

Maybe they should fire their hitting coach again.

Thanks to reilly for putting this whole thing together again & to everyone that submitted a list. It's been great just having a minor league season at all after last year, but to have so many guys putting up encouraging results has made it that much better. MLB club currently sporting the 4th highest World Series odds with most of the team under control for next year & beyond. At the upper levels / top of the list you've got Ashby (& even Feliciano) who have already seen MLB briefly this year with Turang, Small & Mitchell likely on the cusp for 2022/23. Then there's a group of like a dozen hitters at the lower levels that will surely see some attrition & might not have the prospect clout of say Fielder / Braun / Weeks / Hardy / Hart, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if a few guys turn out in more of a sneaky Lucroy / Cain / Brantley kind of way. Biggest weakness right now is probably that the pitching is a little thin after Ashby/Small. You've got File/Bettinger for upper level high floor low ceiling types, Kelly/Uribe for premium stuff high risk at the lower levels before it kind of falls off a little bit to guys with more question marks. Also really intrigued to see which arms emerge from the DR complex over the next couple years. Brewers haven't invested much in terms of big bonuses for pitchers compared to position players on the international side, but with the organizational strides that have been made on the pitching development front since Stearns & company got here I wouldn't be surprised if they unearth a gem or two.

2020-21: 369 PAs | 44 OPS+ | -1.7 WAR 2016-19: 921 PAs | 112 OPS+ | +2.6 WAR

Woah, nice to see Holt get the double bump.

28-15 (.651 winning %) would be a small step back from from the 51-24 (.680 winning %) posted so far since the Adames trade.

The math isn't quite perfect since 2018-19 and 2020-21 each have different denominators in terms of plate appearances & distribution of pitches within each of the nine zones, but just to delve a little deeper on how Yelich's swing decisions and production have changed, here is a rough average of swing percentage and wOBA for all nine of the zones for Christian's last two years compared to his first two years... Low / Inside 2018-19 Swing%: 65.5% | 2020-21 Swing%: 51.5% (-14%) 2018-19 wOBA: .412 | 2021-21 wOBA: .248 (-.156) Low / Middle 2018-19 Swing%: 61.5% | 2020-21 Swing%: 62% (+0.5%) 2018-19 wOBA: .500 | 2020-21 wOBA: .250 (-.250) Low / Outside 2018-19 Swing%: 53.5% | 2020-21 Swing%: 47.5% (-6%) 2018-19 wOBA: .266 | 2020-21 wOBA: .289 (+.023) Middle / Inside 2018-19 Swing%: 75.5% | 2020-21 Swing%: 66% (-9.5%) 2018-19 wOBA: .415 | 2020-21 wOBA: .394 (-.021) Middle / Middle 2018-19 Swing%: 81% | 2020-21 Swing% 72% (-9%) 2018-19 wOBA: .637 | 2020-21 wOBA: .374 (-.264) Middle / Outside 2018-19 Swing%: 67% | 2020-21 Swing%: 58% (-9%) 2018-19 wOBA: .582 | 2020-21 wOBA: .302 (-.280) High / Inside 2018-19 Swing%: 71.5% | 2020-21 Swing% 54.5% (-17%) 2018-19 wOBA: .313 | 2020-21 wOBA: .251 (-.062) High / Middle 2018-19 Swing%: 75.5% | 2020-21 Swing% 76% (+0.5%) 2018-19 wOBA: .467 | 2020-21 wOBA: .448 (-.019) High / Outside 2018-19 Swing%: 60.5% | 2020-21 Swing%: 57% (-3.5%) 2018-19 wOBA: .411 | 2020-21 wOBA: .339 (-.072) Significant drop in swing rate = High / Inside, Low / Inside, Middle / Inside, Middle / Middle and Middle / Outside Significant drop in wOBA = Middle / Outside, Middle / Middle, Low / Middle and Low / Inside Pretty much the only locations that have seen minimal change in both swing rate & results are High / Middle and to a lesser extent Low / Outside.

Yelich's entire approach has changed since the knee cap, so it still seems like a relevant data point to me. Swing percentages of 38.7% / 34.6% the last two years vs 45.2% / 44.0% his first two seasons with the Crew. One might theorize that Yelich has been especially hesitant to swing / swing with authority on pitches inside or down or especially down & inside and maybe even at pitches down the middle, because pitches that start off down the middle often end up inside or down or both by the time they get to the plate. Here are Yelich's swing percentage & wOBA for each of those four zones during his four years with the Brewers... Middle / Middle (swing% down & wOBA way down) Swing% | 2018: 81% | 2019: 81% | 2020: 66% | 2021: 78% wOBA | 2018: .649 | 2019: .625 | 2020: .416 | 2021: .332 Middle / Inside (swing% down & wOBA about the same) Swing% | 2018: 75% | 2019: 76% | 2020: 66% | 2021: 66% wOBA | 2018: .393 | 2019: .439 | 2020: .427 | 2021: .361 Low / Middle (swing% about the same & wOBA way down) Swing% | 2018: 60% | 2019: 63% | 2020: 57% | 2021: 67% wOBA | 2018: .467 | 2019: .532 | 2020: .260 | 2021: .240 Low / Inside (swing% way down & wOBA way down) Swing% | 2018: 67% | 2019: 64% | 2020: 59% | 2021: 44% wOBA | 2018: .500 | 2019: .323 | 2020: .264 | 2021: .232

Nice to see the Brewers climbing up the rankings a little bit. The MLB roster is pretty stacked with controllable talent that either graduated from the system or was acquired via dealing prospects... Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Lauer, Hader, Williams, Suter, Cousins, Sanchez, Narvaez, Rowdy, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Taylor The high minors are kind of slim, but Ashby, Turang, Mitchell, Small and even Feliciano all have floors of MLB players with varying degrees of upside beyond that & have already started trickling into MLB with the rest likely to get at least a taste by 2022. Then there is the collection of hitting talent in the low minors, which while lacking in the sure things like Braun/Fielder, might be the most exciting group of position players coming up since the early Melvin years. Throw in the leaps & bounds that have been made in developing pitching since Stearns & company arrived and I can't really think of a time when the organization was in a better position to maintain long term competetiveness.

Yeah, Clippers were carrying 16 guaranteed contracts so the 3 for 1 gives them some flexibility. Also only needed to deal Beverly/Oturu to match salaries, so Clips get an 8.25 million trade exception for Rondo & a lower tax bill. Kawhi is probably out for the season rehabbing his ACL, so the cap & roster ramifications are more important than Bledsoe's on court play for the Clips.

The Brewers Wild Card odds are 2.8% vs Division odds of 95.8%. Those Division odds are doing exponentially more than the Brewers Wild Card odds to keep their overall Playoff odds way up so high.

But if that happens, Taylor won't be eligible for the post-season roster - correct? That used to be the rule - but not sure if there are exceptions now. Think Taylor would be fine for the postseeason still. Believe any player on the 40 man as of August 31 is eligible.

Can CC get him to 20? Would that be a first for a reliever? Looks like the record for relief wins was set by Roy Face when he went 18-1 out of the bullpen for the 1959 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Full catalogue of lefty starts against the Brewers so far, (L) or (W) is game result for the Brewers... 4/26 Rogers MIA 6 IP 0 ER 7 K 0 BB (L) 4/27 Castano MIA 3.1 IP 3 ER 3 K 1 BB (W) 5/02 Urias LAD 7 IP 1 ER 10 K 0 BB (L) 5/07 Rogers MIA 5 IP 1 ER 6 K 2 BB (L) 5/08 Castano MIA 4 IP 3 ER 5 K 2 BB (W) 5/11 Kim STL 5.1 IP 1 ER 6 K 1 BB (L) 5/14 Smyly ATL 6 IP 1 ER 4 K 1 BB (L) 5/18 Bubic KCR 6 IP 0 ER 4 K 2 BB (L) 5/24 Snell SDP 3.2 IP 5 ER 7 K 3 BB (W) 5/27 Weathers SDP 4 IP 0 ER 5 K 2 BB (W) 5/29 Corbin WAS 5 IP 4 ER 5 K 2 BB (W) 5/29 Lester WAS 4 IP 1 ER 4 K 0 BB (W) 5/31 Alexander DET 1 IP 0 ER 2 K 0 BB (W) 6/01 Boyd DET 4.2 IP 5 ER 4 K 3 BB (L) 6/06 Smith ARI 5 IP 1 ER 8 K 2 BB (W) 6/19 Gomber COL 2 IP 2 ER 1 K 0 BB (W) 6/23 Smith ARI 6 IP 1 ER 6 K 4 BB (W) 7/04 Anderson PIT 7 IP 0 ER 6 K 2 BB (L) 7/09 Miley CIN 8 IP 0 ER 4 K 3 BB (L) 7/20 Minor KCR 7 IP 1 ER 5 K 1 BB (L) 7/24 Rodon CHW 4 IP 2 ER 5 K 2 BB (W) 7/31 Muller ATL 5 IP 1 ER 7 K 2 BB (L) 8/04 Brault PIT 4 IP 1 ER 2 K 1 BB (W) 8/10 Steele CHC 5 IP 3 ER 1 K 1 BB (W) 8/15 Peters PIT 4.2 IP 1 ER 3 K 3 BB (W)

Brewers would have to eat over 15 million to DFA JBJ. Don't think they value Vogelbach quite that highly, especially since he'd really only be on the roster to pinch hit.

Have definitely struggled to score runs in games started by lefties, only 81 runs in 25 games, or 3.24 per game. Testament to the pitching staff that the Brewers have still gone 14-11 in those games, a 91 win full season pace.