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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Hader picks up his 3rd save since July.
  2. sveumrules
    Red Sox 1B have been pretty brutal this year with an 82 wRC+ (27th) & -0.6 WAR (29th) so far. Brewers 1B are up to a 101 wRC+ (21st) & 0.5 WAR (23rd) since Rowdy came to the rescue.
  3. sveumrules
    C. Ray at the top of the lineup & C. Rea at the bottom of the lineup...gotta be a good omen.
  4. sveumrules
    When you do something & the last person to do that same thing was named Bobo Holloman...you know its been awhile.
  5. sveumrules
    The various projections definitely like the Reds wild card chances a lot more than their division chances... 538: Division 6% | Wild Card 30% FanGraphs: Division 3.5% | Wild Card 29.3% PECOTA: Division 4.7% | Wild Card 14.8%
  6. sveumrules
    A few from the as of late... The Man Who Fell to Earth. David Bowie plays an enigmatic billionnaire building a personal spacecraft to return to his home planet. A little too on the nose being on Amazon Prime, like come on Bezos, just come out & say it. Mirror. Stalker is one of my all time favourites, so had to check out this other Tarkovsky that recently got the Criterion treatment & it did not dissapoint. Beautifuuly shot poetic ruminations on time, love, family, everything really. Minding The Gap. Documentary that is ostensibly about three skateboarders in Rockford, but uses that as a jumping off point to examine race, cycles of abuse & what people are willing to risk or relinquish in their lives to chase those ever elusive moments that actually let you know, you are in fact, alive.
  7. sveumrules
    And perhaps most importantly he is striking out at less than a 20% clip. If this isn't a blip, he suddenly becomes very interesting again. Unless I'm missing something, he has 41 K's in 146 AB's for a 28% strikeout rate. Think Cheesehead was talking about the K rate since returning from injury. Small sample of course, but only 8 Ks over 47 PAs (17% K rate) with a 357/426/667 triple slash since coming back.
  8. sveumrules
    Cool to see Zamora heating up a bit here down the stretch. Fun to compare / contrast him & Hamilton for best SS prospect after Turang. Skimming over the lists it looks like Freddy will come in higher on the BF.net Top 25, but I had David ranked higher because his speed is the loudest tool between the two & he's had better results at a higher level. Either way, nice to have multiple intriguing SS (might as well throw in Garcia in there too) spread throughout the system.
  9. sveumrules
    That's awesome. Reading the link Mass posted in the transactions thread makes it pretty much impossible not to root for the guy.
  10. sveumrules
    How often do teams lose a 7-8 game lead over the last quarter of the season? There were 20 full seasons / 60 division races from 2000-19. The largest division leads as of August 15th blown during that stretch were 2006 Tigers at 6.5 games & 2012 Rangers at 6.0 games. Of the 60 races, there were 21 that were separated by between 6-9 games as of August 15th, the other 19 held. The only recent team to blow a division lead over 7.5 games as of August 15th were the California Angels in 1995.
  11. sveumrules
    Right, the current version of Yelich would not be worth the contract extension that starts next year & runs through 2028. But just because he has only put up a 103 OPS+ over 543 PAs between 2020-21 doesn't mean he is doomed to repeat those results for the next seven plus years. A lot can change. Take Joey Votto... 2007-18 | 6764 PAs | 155 OPS+ 2019-20 | 831 PAs | 97 OPS+ 2021 | 361 PAs | 140 OPS+ or Buster Posey... 2010-17 | 4243 PAs | 136 OPS+ 2018-19 | 893 PAs | 95 OPS+ 2021 | 301 PAs | 145 OPS+ or even Brandon Belt... 2012-16 | 2168 PAs | 130 OPS+ 2017-19 | 1,523 PAs | 106 OPS+ 2020-21 | 408 PAs | 155 OPS+ All of them had cold stretches that were longer &/or worse than what Yelich is currently doing, and were still able to come back from it. Looking at Christian's career arc... 2013-17 | 2812 PAs | 121 OPS+ 2018-19 | 1231 PAs | 171 OPS+ 2020-21 | 543 PAs | 103 OPS+ ...my best guess is that Yelich's production from 2022-28 will likely fall somewhere between the 121 OPS+ he posted as a Marlin & his 133 career mark. If he does that the contract will be fine.
  12. sveumrules
    Looking back on the 2014 schedule it looks like the Brewers biggest lead was 6.5 games on June 28th, still smaller than our current lead. FanGraphs historical playoff odds had them at 57.4% to win the division at that point. Their biggest August lead looks to have been 2.5 games after a five game winning streak ending August 19th. FanGraphs historical playoff odds had them at 50.9% to win the division at that point. Our current division odds are around 94-98%. This team is just much better than the 2014 team was. They would have to go 12-34 to finish 82-80 like 2014 team did.
  13. sveumrules
    Yelich 2020-21: 218/365/386 (107 wRC+) Average P 2021: 109/214/083 (-20 wRC+) Since Yelich broke his knee cap his hitting has been 7% better than league average & 127% better than the average pitcher. I don't think you understand hyperbole. I understand it is everywhere all of the time, that is why I try to offer a more objective perspective.
  14. sveumrules
    Really cool story. Will definitely be keeping my eyes peeled for Meeker in the link reports.
  15. sveumrules
    Yelich 2020-21: 218/365/386 (107 wRC+) Average P 2021: 109/214/083 (-20 wRC+) Since Yelich broke his knee cap his hitting has been 7% better than league average & 127% better than the average pitcher.
  16. sveumrules
    Saw that JGJ is now rocking a 100 wRC+ in Wisco after a slow start. First 36 PAs: 133/278/167 Last 87 PAs: 269/345/513 Hopefully he can stay hot over the last month of the season & open next year in Biloxi.
  17. sveumrules
    Yup. The idea that Lauer was sort of a lefty Davies, but younger & with more team control is starting to manifest this year. Davies w/MIL | 91 ERA- | 99 FIP- | 105 xFIP- Lauer 2021 | 84 ERA- | 106 FIP- | 101 xFIP-
  18. sveumrules
    Brewers are an MLB best 49-23 since the Adames trade. SF (46-24) & TB (43-26, guess the trade is working for them too) are next before a group of four teams (LA, CIN, CHW & HOU) with 42 wins. The offense has now scored thee most runs in MLB since the trade with the position players posting a 110 wRC+ & the 3rd highest WAR. Bullpen has also posted a 3.18 ERA (4th) / 3.88 FIP (7th) / 3.87 xFIP (3rd) since the trade vs a 4.59 ERA (23rd) / 4.86 FIP (27th) / 4.41 xFIP (20th) before the trade.
  19. sveumrules
    Brewers are currently 11th in MLB in runs scored on the season & after pouring it on the Cubs yesterday have now scored thee most runs in MLB since the Adames trade. Position player wRC+ is up to 99 on the season (110 post 5/22), which combined with top three base running & the second best defense has position player WAR currently 8th in MLB. Current position players with season Brewers totals (PAs | wRC+ | WAR)... Willy (301 | 148 | 3.5) Omar (318 | 125 | 3.3) Avisail (394 | 113 | 2.0) Kolten (317 | 112 | 2.0) Urias (408 | 113 | 1.8) Jace (179 | 124 | 1.2) Tyrone (232 | 103 | 1.0) Lorenzo (167 | 93 | 0.9) Manny (150 | 73 | 0.8) Yelich (296 | 101 | 0.8) Rowdy (82 | 155 | 0.6) Escobar (57 | 164 | 0.5) JBJ (352 | 51 | 0.0)
  20. sveumrules
    Urias had a 103 wRC+ entering the game & currently has a 113 wRC+ after it. A 10% jump in wRC+ when you've already got a lil over 400 PAs under your belt is pretty nuts. Guess that's what happens when you make (franchise) history.
  21. sveumrules
    Division Odds take remaining schedules into account & the current percentages are... PECOTA: MIL 97.7% | CIN 2.3% | STL 0% FanGraphs: MIL 95.9% | CIN 3.8% | STL 0.3% 538: MIL 94% | CIN 5% | STL 1% Things can always change, but at the moment we aren't really in a division battle with anyone.
  22. sveumrules
    Yes
  23. sveumrules
    Cool to see Joey stay hot after the promotion. He was in that 26-30 range for me when I was putting together my list, but those videos of his wonky swing mechanics from around draft time were still giving me some pause. After checking out some more recent clips it looks like he may have simplified things somewhat, which along with the results is certainly encouraging. Clancy, saw you had Martinez at #1 on your list vs Wiemer down at #38 and was curious what was driving that gap in your rankings? Carolina batting lines are similar with 276/391/478 (137 wRC+) for Wiemer vs 271/373/507 (137 wRC+) for Martinez, but Joey walks more (14.1% vs 10.7%) & strikes out less (21.6% vs 27.5%) than Ernesto. SB/CS are also pretty close at 22/4 for Wiemer vs 27/2 for Martinez. Joey also appears to have much more defensive value with a 70/80 grade arm & 413 innings in RF / 174 innings in CF at Carolina vs 406 innings at 1B / 26 innings in CF for Ernesto.
  24. sveumrules
    Watching Jose Abreu, who literally had to be smuggled out of Cuba, hit a bomb in the middle of an Iowa cornfield was pretty cool. Field of Dreams indeed.
  25. sveumrules
    It's a regular season game. Similar to the ones played in Japan, Mexico, UK & Puerto Rico over the last couple years.
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