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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Scherzer certainly could, comments from Boras just make it sound exceedingly unlikely that he will. Here's how the various projections rank the NL contenders by World Series odds... FanGraphs | 17.3% LA | 9.6% NY | 8.4% SD | 7.4% MIL PECOTA | 17.7% LA | 9.4% MIL | 8.8% NY | 7.0% SD 538 | 21% LA | 8% MIL | 8% SD | 5% NY | 5% SF Max is great but I don't think he increases our WS odds 8-13% by himself.
  2. sveumrules
    Stark contrast to the Cubs, who traded off long term assets for short term gains & now are about to sell off their team at the deadline & look primed for a lengthy return to mediocrity, while the Astros are still well positioned for long term success.
  3. sveumrules
    League average K% 2021: 23.1% SFG position player K% 2021: 23.1%
  4. sveumrules
    The main reason would be injury risk. Say Scherzer can get 3/75 from an acquiring team now, maybe a strong stretch & post-season run pushes that to 3/90 in the offseason, but an injury in the next three months could drop it all the way down to something like 2/20, say 5 million for the rehab year in 2022 then a 15 million gamble on a 38/39 year old Max in 2023.
  5. sveumrules
    Pretty sure Boras said Scherzer will require an extension to waive his NTC, so probably not happening in Milwaukee. If that's the case & Max is moved to a team that can afford that sort of cash for a 37 year old pitcher, I'd normally guess the return would probably be a couple prospects better than the comp pick the Nats would net when Scherzer sailed in FA, but it looks like Max has already turned down a QO once before so Washington could maybe lose him for nothing if they don't find a deadline deal.
  6. sveumrules
    Rodgers could put some confirmable information out, so no one had to try & ascribe motive, but he trolls & plays aloof instead. Hard for me to root for or care about a guy like that, no matter how good he is at throwing a ball.
  7. sveumrules
    If everyone's healthy by the time Shaw's rehab is over the position player group will probably look something like... Omar, Manny, Kolten, Luis, Willy, Jace, Christian, Lorenzo, JBJ, Garcia, Deadline 1B. If the team is comfortable with five OF then Tyrone would be the 12th position player. Whichever of Shaw, Vogelbach, Hiura, Rowdy or whoever else is the last man will likely be getting most of their playing time in a pinch hit/defensive replacement type role, so their impact should be pretty minimal.
  8. sveumrules
    The Giants have had stability on the player side for sure with Posey, Crawford, Belt and even Cueto & Longoria to a lesser extent, but they completely overhauled their front office when they brought in Farhan Zaidi from the Dodgers prior to the 2019 season.
  9. sveumrules
    They changed the dimensions in the outfield before 2020, so it's only been 74 home games to this point, but it appears as though it isn't the extreme pitchers park that it used to be. If that is the case, Giants hitters are currently not only getting the advantage of a more favorable home hitting environment, but are also double dipping in a sense since park adjusted stats like OPS+/wRC+ typically use multiple years of data & likely still consider Oracle a tough place to hit. Asked a similar question in a FanGraphs chat a few weeks ago... ROGELIO: Giants batting lines are crazy this year. Any chance Oracle is playing more like a hitters park since the re-configuration but park factors are still treating it as the pitcher’s park it has historically been? Ben Clemens: Yes, a very good chance. Our park factors are designed to be slow-moving and look back a lot of years, but that doesn’t work well when stadiums change quickly
  10. sveumrules
    The Dodgers (19% @ 538 | 18.4% @ PECOTA | 17% @ FanGraphs) & Astros (16% @ 538 | 16.6% @ PECOTA | 14.5% @ Fangraphs) currently have the best chance to win the World Series. No series of possible moves would move our odds close to 20% much less 60%.
  11. sveumrules
    From a long term team building standpoint, my preference would be to trade him for whatever the Packers can get. From a personal satisfaction standpoint I hope he takes his ball & goes home like the petulant child he is. He has no legitimate gripe as far as I'm concerned. They offered him the cash, the front office put the most talented roster/staff around him in at least a decade.
  12. sveumrules
    My favorite thing about Schoop was he was on a crazy tear before we acquired him. In 23 games / 101 PAs leading up to the trade he hit 360/356/700. That's right, 360 AVG / 356 OBP. Didn't walk or get hit by a pitch in those 101 trips to the plate, with a sac fly dropping his OBP below his AVG. Doesn't get much crazier than that.
  13. sveumrules
    Bullpen has a 2.79 ERA so far in July entering tonight, the 4th lowest mark in MLB. 4.55 FIP this month is less encouraging, but they've been keeping runs off the board at least.
  14. sveumrules
    And on a straighter line. EL OH EL
  15. sveumrules
    That ball got outta here way faster than LaRussa.
  16. sveumrules
    You know who else is even huger analytic nerds than some message board posters? David Stearns, Matt Arnold & the rest of the Brewers front office. Of course VGJ vs Sogard is just an example, one of them is so good they aren't getting traded for anything under the sun, the other is hanging on the waiver wire free for the taking. An example that has no bearing on the real world isn't a very useful example. Where analytics does come in handy is when trying to determine if it is worthwhile to give up a better prospect package for one player vs a lighter prospect package for a player who might not be quite as good, but still represents an upgrade over the current options. A more pertinent example might be Mancini vs Aguilar mentioned above. Two similar players, who play the same position & are both likely to be on the block, but Mancini projects to be about 10-15% better rest of season. Personally, I'd rather have Mancini, he projects better. But if we have to give up Turang for Trey, but can get Jesus without Brice, sign me up for Aguilar.
  17. sveumrules
    For whatever it is or isn't worth, the publicly available projections have Mancini between 118-134 wRC+ rest of season vs a 110-120 wRC+ range for Aguilar.
  18. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has been publishing their positional Replacement Level Killers series this week, with center field dropping today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2021-replacement-level-killers-center-field-and-designated-hitter/ Even with Lorenzo Cain being hurt & JBJ hitting like a silver slugger pitcher runner up, the Brewers did not make an appearance in the article because their CF baserunning (+2.5, 7th) and defense (+9.3 UZR, 1st / +7 DRS, 4th) is enough to offset their below average offense (80 wRC+, 23rd), with their overall contribution (1.6 WAR) ranking 12th among all teams.
  19. sveumrules
    Cleveland Rocks would have been way cooler. Could have, like, a baseball made out of rock logo & then a guitar logo. One mascot could be Shredder who goes around shredding tasty licks all over the ballpark & the other could be Rocky, who is a statue or something? I don't know.
  20. sveumrules
    The Cardinals have made the playoffs 14 times since 2000 & made it to the World Series four times, winning twice. The Dodgers, with all their resources, needed eight bites at the apple before they finally didn't get the worm. The Nationals couldn't get out of the NLDS four times before they finally broke through and won it all. Would you rather be the Cubs, whose "dynasty" is over because they sold off the future for one WS, or the Astros, whose "dynasty" is still going strong because they consistently play the long game?
  21. sveumrules
    Moved the posts on the Cleveland name change to their own thread, please continue discussion there.
  22. sveumrules
    Individual match ups... Peralta | 98 IP | 58 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 148 K%+ | 126 BB%+ Giloito | 113 IP | 91 ERA- | 91 FIP- | 123 K%+ | 84 BB%+ Burnes | 96 IP | 53 ERA- | 30 FIP- | 157 K%+ | 47 BB%+ Rodon | 96 IP | 50 ERA- | 52 FIP- | 155 K%+ | 78 BB%+ Woody | 119 IP | 50 ERA- | 63 FIP- | 127 K%+ | 70 BB%+ Lynn | 97 IP | 45 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 117 K%+ | 93 BB%+
  23. sveumrules
    Peralta vs Giolito, Burnes vs Rodon, Woodruff vs Lynn...great series for pitching matchups. By runs allowed WAR those are five of the top ten starters in baseball with Woodruff (2nd, 5.0), Rodon (6th, 4.4), Lynn (8th, 4.1), Burnes (9th, 3.8) & Freddy (10th, 3.7). Giolito is all the way down in 45th.
  24. sveumrules
    Aguilar's propensity to be bad/terrible in the 2nd half of seasons scares the hell out of me. Last thing I want to do is give up a big package for a player who is not going to be any improvement on what Hiura is doing. Jesus peaked on May 13th with a 975 OPS over 143 PAs, since then he has posted a 679 OPS over his last 221 PAs.
  25. sveumrules
    I don't know. Lewis Brinson was our consensus #1 prospect. Ortiz was up there. Brinson was dealt during the offseason though. Maverick/Ortiz are probably the highest ranked guys (#4/5 on the 2018 BF.net Top 25) we've dealt at the deadline. Phillips has been fun for sure & has posted 3+ WAR as a defense first 4th OF over parts of five seasons, but I think (hope?) the Brewers FO has a higher internal evaluation on Turang. Brice is pretty similar to Brett in that his defense/speed combo gives him the floor of a backup IF, but Maverick has simply K'ed too much (36.3% K rate) to do anything on offense (73 OPS+), whereas Turang seemingly has a much better approach, which should hopefully allow him to be more productive at the plate despite a paucity of power. I agree Brice is the best bet among the better prospects to be dealt, but given the MLB team needs (1B, RP, back end SP?) I think Stearns & company will go after rentals who don't require us to surrender anyone from the four aforementioned. I won't be surprised if Stearns & company swing big at the deadline, but I'm not really expecting it either.
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