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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray are both older than Juan Soto. I think the point for the Nationals is they were able to create a young MLB ready core that they’ll control for the next 5+ years. Especially considering the current state of the Nationals farm system, I think it’s a good trade for them. Yeah, twelve years of Gray/Ruiz should produce a lot more value than a year & four months of Scherzer/Turner.
  2. sveumrules
    I wonder if Vogelbach's roster spot, in addition to Shaw's, is in any danger. Omar, Manny, Rowdy, Kolten, Willy, Luis, Escobar, Jace, Yelich, Cain, Avisail, JBJ, Tyrone is 13 when everyone is healthy.
  3. sveumrules
    Going off the FanGraphs surplus values they have Gray (55 FV, +34 million) & Ruiz (50 FV, +28 million) at +62 million. Ashby (50 FV, +21 million) plus Turang (45 FV, +6 million) plus Small (45 FV, +4 million) comes out at +31 million.
  4. sveumrules
    Berrios career numbers are weighed down by his call up season in 2016, with an 8.02 ERA in 58 IP. Since his first full season in 2017 through this year he's at... 723 IP (10th) | 85 ERA- (29th) | 88 FIP- (30th) | 14.4 rWAR (19th) | 13.5 fWAR (18th) That looks like a solid number two to me. For comparison, here are Davies & Jon Gray over the same time frame... 595 IP (30th) | 90 ERA- (44th) | 102 FIP- (69th) | 10.1 rWAR (39th) | 6.9 fWAR (62nd) 569 IP (40th) | 90 ERA- (44th) | 89 FIP- (34th) | 10.7 rWAR (38th) | 10.6 fWAR (31st) Personally I'd prefer Gray since the cost should presumably be lower as he's a notch below Berrios & a pending FA, plus the FIP- is almost identical so getting Gray out of Colorado & in front of our defense could give him a nice boost on the run prevention side.
  5. sveumrules
    Yankees offense: 415 runs scored (25th) Yankees pitching: 407 runs allowed (7th) The Yankees pitching has been much less problematic than their offense to this point.
  6. sveumrules
    If the playoffs started today the Dodgers & Padres would play in the wild card game, with the winner facing SF in the NLDS while the Brewers would be matched up with the Mets in the NLDS. There is a possible scenario where the Brewers could make it to the World Series without playing either of the Dodgers or Padres.
  7. sveumrules
    Riley Adams, a 25-year-old catcher who is the Jays' #17 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, is the return. Reading his scouting report sounds kinda like Payton Henry.
  8. sveumrules
    Jon Perrin makes an appearance of FanGraphs Audio this week... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-jonathan-perrin-pushes-for-change/ Didn't get a chance to listen, but the summary sounds pretty interesting... After that, David Laurila welcomes Jonathan Perrin, former minor leaguer and contributor to FanGraphs, to the program. Jonathan shares what it was like to be traded, how dominant Corbin Burnes looked in the minors, and how prevalent sticky substance use was in the minors. Now a financial advisor, Jonathan works with More Than Baseball to help educate today’s minor leaguers and advocate for better conditions. He tells David what it was like for him and his teammates, and what needs to change.
  9. sveumrules
    This is hard for me to believe. I fully expect some relief help but with Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta leading the rotation and Hader closing things out Stearns knows he has to take advantage of an elite pitching staff. We have been scoring runs lately but it is obvious that offense is one of our more glaring needs especially with Yelich/Hiura not coming around. If he makes a move I think it is a splash for a big name. I don't see the value in adding the David Peralta's of the world. The offense went from 83 wRC+ / 3.66 runs per game before the Adames trade to 106 wRC+ / 5.04 runs per game after the trade. The bullpen went from 4.59 ERA / 4.83 FIP before the Adames trade to 2.78 ERA / 3.79 FIP after the trade. The team's record went from 21-23 (.477 W%) before the trade to 38-19 (.667 W%) after the trade. It will be extremely difficult to make any series of moves at the deadline that increase our run scoring by another 1.38 runs per game, decreases our bullpen ERA by another 1.81 runs per game & improves our winning percentage by another .190, so odds of the Adames deal being the most impactful of the season are pretty high.
  10. sveumrules
    I’m certainly not the first to say it here, but yeah, between Adames and maybe Rowdy, he may already have made the most impactful moves they will make this season. Also pretty crazy when you consider the bullpen was sitting with a 4.59 ERA (23rd) / 4.83 FIP (27th) when they sent out JPF & Rasmussen for Adames but has pitched to the tune of a 2.78 ERA (2nd) / 3.79 FIP (5th) since the trade.
  11. sveumrules
    What about his OBP/SLG though? 119 wRC+ career vs lefties, 115 wRC+ career vs righties. Maybe not very good, but 15 to 20 percent above average across the board.
  12. sveumrules
    True, Gallo isn't the best at getting hits (86 AVG+) and he strikes out a ton (160 K%+), but he also walks a ton (177 BB%) and hits for a ton of power (170 ISO+) resulting in getting on base more than average (106 OBP+) and slugging more than average (120 SLG+). Throw in positive base running (+15.3) and fielding (+37 DRS / +21.7 UZR in the OF) and Gallo has put up 13 WAR since becoming a regular in 2017, which ranks 47th in MLB over that time just below Conforto, Stanton, Rizzo & Brantley and just above Votto, Ozuna, Suarez & Starling Marte. Brewers position players are currently 4th in walk rate, 7th in strikeout rate, 4th in base running and 4th in defensive runs saved, so I think he would fit right in.
  13. sveumrules
    Here I thought you were just some random fan posting on an internet message board, I didn't realize you were offering absolute guarantees. Anyone have Mark A's phone number? Still four days to the deadline. It's never too late. Hey, it's no different than a vast majority here who absolutely adore "prospects". It's like they know for a fact they will end up being good. In fact, the way they talk about them(like they are gold) you would think they are guaranteeing they will be great. Strawman. Please find me one post where anyone offered an "absolute guarantee" on any prospect. Offering absolute guarantees that you have no way of actually fulfilling only makes your already tenuous position even less credible.
  14. sveumrules
    Here I thought you were just some random fan posting on an internet message board, I didn't realize you were offering absolute guarantees. Anyone have Mark A's phone number? Still four days to the deadline. It's never too late.
  15. sveumrules
    Only real change in his results appears to be the his HR rate is waaaaay down, 0.72 HR/9 this year vs 1.05 for his career and HR/FB% of 9.9 this year vs 14.3 for his career. By xFIP, which normalizes home run rates in an effort to weed out small sample flukiness, Gibson is at 4.15 this year vs 4.12 for his career. The only change that really jumps out otherwise is it looks like Gibson has added a cutter which he throws around 12.4% of the time. I remember that Marco Estrada added a cutter when he went to the Blue Jays & saw his HR rate drop considerably, so maybe Gibson isn't due for quite as much regression as it appears on the surface, but I would still definitely take the over on his current 2.87 ERA for the rest of season either way.
  16. sveumrules
    Hopefully that is true, and Tyrone gets to take advantage by playing every day. Switch off JBJ and Old Man Cain in CF, let Garcia handle right, and Taylor handle Left. I know full well that this will not be the game plan that CC uses, but it is the one that makes the most sense.............................IMO If you know CC won't use that game plan, what game plan are you expecting him to use instead?
  17. sveumrules
    His sprint speed is pretty much exactly MLB average, that would be a data point supporting his average-ness. If you prefer it expressed in terms of runs BRef has him -3 for his career on the bases & FanGraphs has him at +2.8, so just about as average as it gets. Yes, he has a 129 OPS+ so far this year in 428 PAs. In 1,804 PAs prior to this year his OPS+ was a very average 99. His track record of being average is much longer than his track record of being above average & the prospects going to PIT seem to indicate teams believed Frazier's true talent is closer to his career 105 OPS+ or his 110 wRC+ rest of season ZiPS than it is to his current 129 OPS+. Other indicators he might be over-achieving/possibly due for regression would be a .298 xBA/.387 xSLG vs actual marks of .324/.447 or a .359 BABIP currently vs a career .314 mark or Hard Hit/Barrel rates that rank in the bottom 3% of MLB. If the Brewers were perhaps interested & Turang presumably needed to be included to surpass the Padres package, I'm glad Stearns & company passed, personally.
  18. sveumrules
    Brewers pre-deadline 2019: 57-52 (.523 W%) Brewers post-deadline 2019: 32-21 (.604 W%) Brewers pre-deadline 2018: 63-47 (.573 W%) Brewers post-deadline 2018: 33-20 (.623 W%) Brewers pre-deadline 2017: 55-52 (.514 W%) Brewers post-deadline 2017: 31-24 (.564 W%) Whatever they are doing it has worked three deadlines in a row. If Stearns & company can make moves to improve on the team's current .580 W% over the last two months I will be impressed. Again.
  19. sveumrules
    The Reds not ponying up for Adames, who is making the minimum this year with three years of Arby's left, but instead choosing to pay a presumably higher price in prospects to land Trea Turner, who is making 13 million this year with one year of Arby's left, would be just about the most Reds thing ever. Besides trading your closer to save payroll or starting Eugenio Suarez at SS in a season where you intended to compete, of course.
  20. sveumrules
    Frazier has 10+BWAR to his name and over 2 this year. Nothing about that says average. Ten bWAR in essentially five seasons. 2 WAR per year = average. Career OPS+ of 105 is 5% better than average. His sprint speed of 27.1 ft/s is 256th out of 500 qualifiers on the StatCast leaderboard. Frazier is about as average as it gets.
  21. sveumrules
    Hosmer's 56.9% ground ball rate is the 3rd highest in MLB since 2018, power numbers are unlikely to improve much without a change in batted ball profile. Since joining SD... 2018 | 60.4 GB% | 95 wRC+ 2019 | 56.0 GB% | 91 wRC+ 2020 | 46.2 GB% | 127 wRC+ 2021 | 56.9 GB% | 96 wRC+
  22. sveumrules
    They have the most at stake. Win the NL West & you get a bye to the first round. Get 2nd or 3rd in the NLW & you are playing the other NLW team in the Wild Card Game & your postseason run has about a 50/50 shot at being one game.
  23. sveumrules
    Too late, the roses already smell like boo boo.
  24. sveumrules
    Think it'll be a pretty quiet offseason, mostly just roll it back. By my count there are 11 roster spots taken at the moment...Giannis, Khris, Jrue, Brook, DDV, Pat C, Nwora, Merrill, Diakite, Elijah & our draft pick. Would love Bobby back, but think the money difference will ultimately be too much for him to turn down. Feel like Nwora could step into that bench scorer role for the regular season, but not sure how his more laid back demeanor might translate to the post season vs Bobby's crazy eyed intensity. I'd guess Thanasis & Tucker get brought back for two of the open spots, with vet minimum backups at PG & PF/C filling in the last two.
  25. sveumrules
    Rendon 2019: 7.2 WAR. Rendon 2021: Angel Strasburg 2019: 5.8 WAR Strasburg 2021: Hurt/Ineffective Basically the same group minus 13 wins from the top of the roster.
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