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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Everyone is available for the right return. Given Stearns & company's past deadline behavior I don't expect them to deal any of the higher profile guys at AA or above like Turang, Mitchell, Ashby or Small, though.
  2. sveumrules
    Hield is 23 million next year, Brook + DDV are only 18 million. Don't think we could take on that extra salary with our cap situation.
  3. sveumrules
    Giannis, Khris, Jrue, Brook, DDV & Pat C are all under contract at the top of the roster. Bryant, Nwora, Merrill, Diakite & whoever they pick at #31 will be young cheap guys at the bottom of the roster. That leaves four spots in the middle. Guessing Thanasis gets resigned for one of those. Probably only enough cash to keep one of PJ/Portis, hopefully Bobby loves Milwaukee enough to leave some money on the table. Have to imagine Forbes declines his PO, but if he doesn't that's one less spot. I think it'll be a pretty quiet offseason. Biggest move will probably be finding a new backup PG.
  4. sveumrules
    First base is the one position they seem to not really care all that much about defense. How much worse could a 41 year old with zero career innings at 1B be than Hiura, Vogelbach, Tellez, Aguilar, Thames, etc, etc?
  5. sveumrules
    I would also be somewhat surprised if Stearns & company paid the price for Gallo, but he is definitely their type of player as a multi category contributor who adds value both on the bases and in the field... Gallo | +17.2 BSR | +14.5 UZR | +27 DRS Cain | +21.6 BSR | +54.5 UZR | +87 DRS Yelich | +18.3 BSR | +9.8 UZR | +6 DRS Wong | +23.8 BSR | +32.6 UZR | +50 DRS JBJ | +18.4 BSR | +36.5 UZR | +57 DRS Numbers for Gallo are career through today, numbers for Cain, Yelich, Wong & JBJ are career before being acquired by the Brewers.
  6. sveumrules
    Woodruff (#19) & Burnes (#14) check in on today's installment of the FG Trade Value series... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-11-to-20/
  7. sveumrules
    Black signed for exactly slot, Binelas signed for $300 over slot, Frelick was $114,200 over slot. That $114,500 dollars represents about 1.1% of the Brewers $10,063,400 total bonus pool. Shouldn't hinder their ability to sign anyone else later, especially since all these figures are more or less ball parked & agreed upon before the picks are made.
  8. sveumrules
    This is fantastic news. Getting Topa back could really give a boost to the pen. I must have Topa forgetfulness. What exactly makes us get all jazzed about Topa? Was there something other than his 7+ innings from last year? I don't pay much attention to spring training. Did he look otherworldly or something? Wondering what I am missing. Nasty Stuff + Plucked Out Of The Indy Leagues = Instant Folk Hero. 97.5 MPH sinker with 18" horizontal / 25" vertical movement vs league average of 15" horizontal / 22" vertical movement. 83.3 MPH slider with 16" horizontal / 37" vertical movement vs league average of 6" horizontal / 37" vertical movement.
  9. sveumrules
    Reds bullpen has coughed it up, now 9-8 Mets top of the eighth.
  10. sveumrules
    In advance of the approaching trade deadline, FanGraphs is publishing their annual Trade Value Series, with the first installment (Intro & Honorable Mentions) published today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-intro-and-honorable-mentions/ Last year the Brewers had Hiura (#46), Woody (#28) and Yelich (#15) cracking the list. Hiura & Yelich both fell off the list this year, though have to imagine Woodruff moves up a bit while Corbin & Freddy will be new additions. Adames made honorable mention in 2020 so he is another possibility. Don't believe any reliever has ever made the list, so probably no Hader.
  11. sveumrules
    Projections currently have the Brewers finishing between 92-93 wins. So another 4-5 wins on top of that over the remaining 67 games would probably be a top 10% outcome in terms of probability distribution. What the projections don't know yet, though, is that the Brewers will almost certainly add pieces at the deadline while the Cubs for sure & maybe even the Reds/Cardinals could end up selling off some pieces, none of which will impact the math until it actually happens.
  12. sveumrules
    Yup, for all the talk about the massive perceived gap twixt Brewers & Reds position players, the Reds have scored 445 runs this year vs 420 for the Brewers. But hitters have to field too & the Brewers close the gap (& then some) with +29 Defensive Runs Saved vs -27 DRS for the Reds. Throw in the Brewers base running advantage (+5.8 vs -8.1), add it all up & Brewers position players have posted 12.6 WAR for about 59.6 million in payroll while Reds position players have posted 11.2 WAR for about 84.6 million in payroll. Cardinals position players have posted 8.9 WAR for 84.2 million in payroll, while Cubs position players are at 8.7 WAR for 90.6 million in payroll.
  13. sveumrules
    After reaching base all five times he came to the plate yesterday, Adames has now posted a 314/398/578 line with the Brewers, good for a 162 wRC+ which is the 4th highest mark in the NL. His 2.6 WAR ranks 20th & his +2.09 Win Probability Added ranks 11th in the NL, which is pretty crazy considering both are counting stats influenced by opportunity & Willy has only taken the 108th most plate appearances in the NL to this point.
  14. sveumrules
    Brewers bullpen through 5/21: 113 ERA- | 117 FIP- Brewers bullpen after 5/21: 70 ERA- | 90 FIP- Somehow the trade improved our offense by around 1.35 runs per game & also improved our bullpen ERA by about 43%. Starting to think Stearns & company are practitioners of the dark arts or something. Is it this enjoyable to find bad hot takes to bump and embarrass folks with them with a touch of wit and sarcasm? Because it seems so lately. Wasn't trying to embarrass anyone, just thought the Brewers bullpen turnaround was pretty miraculous since dealing what were viewed as two long term arms who were already succeeding in high leverage situations (JPF) or had the stuff to do so down the road (Rasmussen) & hadn't seen it mentioned elsewhere.
  15. sveumrules
    This season can easily be split into Before Adames and After Adames. Long live the AA era Now an MLB best 35-16 since the trade (21-23 before) while scoring 5.08 runs per game (3.66 before).
  16. sveumrules
    Sweep the Reds, on the road, score 26 runs, seven game Division lead. Gotta bump the Optimism thread back to the top.
  17. sveumrules
    ....& the bullpen got 43% better results in the process.... Bullpen ERA- before trade: 113 Bullpen ERA- after trade: 70
  18. sveumrules
    Sal getting a few paragraphs in the FanGraphs Sunday Notes column... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-cade-cavalli-envisions-more-lorenzens-and-ohtanis/
  19. sveumrules
    There's an old saying, "a run prevented is just as good as a run scored." & while that's mostly true, what Stearns & company seem to understand (check out TB & OAK for further proof) that the Reds don't is that a run prevented is actually slightly better than a run scored because it's cheaper to buy defense than it is to buy offense.
  20. sveumrules
    Their defense is that bad? Yup & FanGraphs uses UZR for their defensive component, which is more on the conservative side. DRS has the Reds at -24.
  21. sveumrules
    Entering today Brewers position players had posted a 96 wRC+, +5.7 on the bases & +21.7 on defense for a total of 12.2 WAR. By contrast, Reds position players had posted a 106 wRC+, -8.0 on the bases & -11.4 on defense for a total of 11.6 WAR. Reds position players have a total salary of 83.6 million compared to only 59.6 million for the Brewers, per SpotRac.
  22. sveumrules
    At this rate the Reds might try to pawn off Winker or Castellanos on us before we leave town.
  23. sveumrules
    Brewers bullpen through 5/21: 113 ERA- | 117 FIP- Brewers bullpen after 5/21: 70 ERA- | 90 FIP- Somehow the trade improved our offense by around 1.35 runs per game & also improved our bullpen ERA by about 43%. Starting to think Stearns & company are practitioners of the dark arts or something.
  24. sveumrules
    Can't believe the worst offense in the league has scored at least 23 runs in the series & if they hold on for the sweep will take a seven game lead over the best team in the NL Central. Miracles happen every day, I guess.
  25. sveumrules
    Reports of the sky falling when DJ left for the Reds appear to have been overstated... viewtopic.php?f=63&t=37813&p=1182371&hilit=Johnson#p1182371
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