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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Best day in Milwaukee Sports history…until Tuesday.
  2. sveumrules
    Eighteen runs the last two games. If the offense wasn’t so terrible we’d probably have like a six game division lead by now.
  3. sveumrules
    Go check the stats posted in the offense thread in the ML forum. The offense has been fine since the Adames trade. Those that are complaining are using an outdated view of things. Unsurprisingly. Yup. Brewers have scored the 4th most runs & won thee most games in MLB since the Adames trade. Even if you want to look at the whole season, the Brewers are 16th in runs per game, so much closer to average than poor.
  4. sveumrules
    You can select custom date ranges on the FanGraphs leaderboards, since the trade Willy has posted the 8th highest WAR in MLB… https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=1000&season1=2021&ind=0&startdate=2021-05-22&enddate=2021-07-16
  5. sveumrules
    Brewers have gone an MLB best 33-16 since trading for Willy. SFG (30-15), LAD (30-17) and HOU (30-17) have been the only other teams with 30 wins over that same stretch.
  6. sveumrules
    Kind of normal, no? One is more apt to give a bad review then a good one. It’s certainly normal for complaints to outnumber compliments, I just thought this thread provided an interesting example to demonstrate the magnitude thereof. 3.2 to 1 is actually a little lower than I was expecting. Thought it might be closer to 5 to 1. Then again some percentage of the post-Adames trade comments were surely complaints during the 5 game losing streak in June & the 2-6 stretch before the ASB, so maybe that 5 to 1 ratio might not be that far off after all.
  7. sveumrules
    From the beginning of the season through May 21st, when the Brewers were scoring 3.66 runs per game, there were 404 posts in this thread, or about 9.18 posts per game. Since the Brewers acquired Willy Adames & started scoring almost five runs per game, there have been 140 posts in this thread, or about 2.86 posts per game. Internet commenters aren’t fond of prosperity, apparently.
  8. sveumrules
    Given how big this series is, kinda surprised the Reds aren’t starting Castillo all three games.
  9. sveumrules
    Even with Cain hurt most of the year & JBJ having a career worst season at the plate, Brewers CF are currently 13th in WAR on account of positive base running (+2.6) & fielding (+6 DRS/+9.3 UZR).
  10. sveumrules
    In the 49 games since the Adames trade the Brewers have scored the 4th most runs (244, 4.98 per game) in MLB while also posting the 6th highest WAR (8.6) among position players with a 107 wRC+, +3.6 on the bases & +10.2 on defense.
  11. sveumrules
    Freddie's got 10/5 rights too, so he could say something like "I'm gonna need a 5/125 extension to not block the trade" if the Braves do end up trying to deal him. Wouldn't do any of Mitchell/Ashby/Small, but if Turang plus a couple lower level guys gets it done I'd probably pull the trigger.
  12. sveumrules
    His last start was 7/9 and he pinch hit on 7/13. Probably just dealing with a minor injury or something. Or maybe he's looked so bad in LF they are waiting to for a series with a DH to start playing him regularly again.
  13. sveumrules
    That might be true 1-8, but if you include players 9-14+, the Brewers position player group as a whole has been more productive than the Cubs... MIL | 96 wRC+ | +5.3 BSR | +20.3 DEF | 11.6 WAR CHC | 97 wRC+ | -1.2 BSR | -1.9 DEF | 8.7 WAR Not bad considering the Cubs are spending about 95 million on position players this year compared to only about 60 million for the Brewers, per SpotRac.
  14. sveumrules
    Kobe King (4.6% swinging strike rate), Caleb Upshaw (115 MPH max exit velo) and Conor Grady (28.2% & 23.1% swinging strike rates on change-up & slider) from the FanGraphs Statistical Diamonds in the Rough article all appear to still be on the board.
  15. sveumrules
    Pretty interesting article over at FanGraphs today about how Omar has gotten his offense back on track despite a StatCast profile that isn't necessarily the most eye popping... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/omar-narvaez-puts-it-all-together/ Omar's 3.0 WAR at the break has him dead even with Jose Ramirez, Bryan Reynolds & Jake Cronenworth occupying the 19-22 spots on the leaderboard. Still have Omar for one more season of Arby's before he hits free agency after 2022.
  16. sveumrules
    At the All Star Break... Kolten has missed over 40% of the games, Lorenzo has missed over 65% of the games, Yelich has missed over 35% of the games & only posted a 116 wRC+ when he has played. Seven players, JBJ (49 wRC+), Hiura (60 wRC+), Shaw (70 wRC+), Manny (62 wRC+), McKinney (64 wRC+), Robertson (65 wRC+) and Reyes (40 wRC+) have taken 1,038 of the 3,263 position player PAs, or 31.8%, with a collective wRC+ of about 59. Yet, despite all those less than ideal outcomes, Brewers position players have still posted 11.5 WAR, the 13th highest total in MLB. While their 96 wRC+ only ranks 20th, their +5.3 on the bases comes in 6th with their +20.3 on defense ranking 2nd. Interestingly, of the twelve teams with higher position player WAR than the Brewers so far, only two have a position player wRC+ below 105. Care to guess which two teams? Ok, you got it. Tampa Bay (101 wRC+) & Oakland (102 wRC+). TB is also +7.8 on the bases & +10.9 on defense adding up to 14.1 WAR (6th), while OAK is +3.4 on the bases & +6.6 on defense coming in at 13.6 WAR (8th). It appears as though the great minds with limited budgets may be thinking along similar wavelengths.
  17. sveumrules
    Any team getting Ramirez would be acquiring him for the rest of this season plus two more years for a total of 27 million dollars. Even the Rays could easily afford that deal. He's put up a 130 wRC+ & 3.0 WAR so far with ZiPS projecting another 2.8 WAR for the rest of this year & then 10.2 WAR over 2022-23. That is essentially 2 million per WAR, which is even cheaper than arbitration prices, for one of the best players in baseball. Mitchell, Turang, Ashby, Small probably still couldn't compete with the packages other teams would likely put on the table.
  18. sveumrules
    Eaton would be a great outcome. Another guy that despite below average power (82 ISO+), still managed an above average batting line (116 wRC+) on the strength of a great approach (110 BB%+ vs 84 K%+) and propensity for getting hits (112 AVG+). Throw in plus baserunning / fielding & Eaton tallied 18 WAR during his team control seasons.
  19. sveumrules
    In the FanGraphs day one recap they had Sal as a 45+ FV, which probably slots him in at #3 behind Ashby (50 FV) & Mitchell (45+ FV) & ahead of the 45 FV guys (Quero, Small, Turang, Olson, Chourio, Feliciano, Uribe & Howell) in the 4-11 spots. They had Black as a 40+ FV, which would put him somewhere in a group of ten guys (Warren, Gray, Hedbert, Hamilton, Zamora, Kelly, Lutz, Lazar & Garcia) between 12-21.
  20. sveumrules
    Yeah MLB Pipeline has Frelick at 60 Hit/45 Power vs 45 Hit/35 Power for Hamilton, so it would appear Sal has much higher offensive upside to go along with a plus speed & defense profile, which is why he was pretty much a consensus Top 10 prospect across multiple sources. College stats back it up too with Sal at 345/435/521 for his career vs a career 256/358/372 line for Hamilton in college. Two completely different hitters.
  21. sveumrules
    Middleton & Jrue ranked 16th & 42nd in salary this year, per Spotrac. Middleton & Jrue ranked 19th & 11th in WAR this year, per 538. Even if they fell short of some fans' expectations at various times, their performances on the whole were commensurate with their compensation.
  22. sveumrules
    2019: 747 PAs | 138 wRC+ 2020 (7/24-8/7): 65 PAs | 24 wRC+ 2020 (8/8-9/27): 171 PAs | 117 wRC+ 2020 (postseason): 18 PAs | 533/611/733 2021: 394 PAs | 135 wRC+ Semien's 2020 was essentially derailed by two bad weeks to start the season, then he settled in right around where the projections see his true talent level & scorched the earth during a small playoff sample. Since becoming a regular in 2015 Marcus is at a 109 wRC+, +13.2 on the bases and +36.3 in the field, good for 21.9 WAR (26th in MLB). If we look at just the more recent time frame of 2019 through now, Marcus is at a 129 wRC+, +6.3 on the bases and +24.3 in the field, good for 12.7 WAR (2nd in MLB behind only Trout). Who knows if the Blue Jays will actually sell, or what the cost will be if he does, but Marcus definitely seems to check all the boxes Stearns & company typically are interested in.
  23. sveumrules
    Blue Jays will be really interesting to keep an eye on over the next couple weeks. Current playoff odds are... 39% (BRef, 6th in AL), 34% (538, 7th in AL), 33.9% (FanGraphs, 7th in AL) and 28.4% (PECOTA, 7th in AL). If they fall far enough back or don't make up enough ground I could see Stearns & company having interest in Marcus Semien. Plus base runner, plus defender at 2B/SS/3B, 135 wRC+ so far this year with the projections having him in the 113-125 range rest of season, on a one year deal so shouldn't cost much as a rental. If not this deadline, don't be surprised if they target him in the offseason, especially if his price tag is considerably lower than the other, more marquee SS on the market.
  24. sveumrules
    #1 i think its a combination of trying to replenish the upper levels of their minor league system. I also wonder what do the brewers do with High Schoolers? There is no rookie ball, where do they go until they are ready to play for Carolina? Rookie ball is now confined to the complex level. Believe the Brewers are fielding two teams (blue & gold) in the Arizona Complex League.
  25. sveumrules
    2017: Hiura, Lutz, Francis, Bettinger, Lazar, Ward, Bullock, File 2018: Turang, Gray, Bello, Ashby, Rasmussen, Howell, Olson, Andrews, Matulovich 2019: Small, Kelly, Bennett, Hamilton, Floyd, 2020: Turang, Zamora, Warren, Wiemer, Cantrelle, All our first round picks have performed & moved up consistently since Johnson got here with plenty of intriguing guys picked up in the later rounds to boot. With the caveat that making a determination on a farm director after only 4-5 years is probably a little too early with standard prospect development timelines, I like the picks that Johnson & company have made since taking over.
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