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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Jeff Foxworthy voice: "When three of the four hitters with the most plate appearances on your team as of the 22nd game are underperforming their projections by 20 to 45 percentage points each...you might be due for some positive regression over the remaining 140 games." -
So far our outfielders have hit to the tune of a 79 wRC+, 27th in MLB. They have however, excelled on the bases (+1.6, 8th) & in the field (+6.4, 2nd) so their overall contribution has been closer to average (0.8 WAR, 15th). Considering they've been able to turn in average overall production despite not hitting & missing time to injury from major contributors, it looks like Stearns & company's plan to focus on depth, speed & defense to mitigate downside risk has worked out pretty well to this point.
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Figured I'd give this thread a bump since non-pitchers have put up a collective slash of 235/314/396 with a 23.9 K% so far in 2021. That batting average is ten points lower than both the pandemic altered 2020 & Year of the Pitcher 1968. It's literally never been harder to get a hit. With expansion & lowering the mound in 1969 league batting average jumped a dozen points to .257. Maybe time to lower the mound again?
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FanGraphs trade value series is a pretty good publicly available proxy of perceived value within the industry & how it evolves over time. The 2017 list was published around the All Star break before we acquired Yelich, he came in #27. The 2018 list was published around the All Star break before Christian broke out, he came in #22. The 2019 list was published around the All Star break with a year of MVP caliber performance & before the broken knee cap, he came in #7. The 2020 list was published in August of 2020 after the injury & contract extension, he came in at #15. Will be interesting to see how much Yelich plays over the next two months, how he performs while on the field & how that impacts his ranking for the 2021 list.
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Marlins are a perfect example of how fluky sixty games in a pandemic can be. They are a rebuilding team with a top five or so farm system in MLB who are probably in line for another top five or so pick after this season. 538, PECOTA & FanGraphs all have them projected for 6th fewest wins in 2021 currently.
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About time. The Rockies have kind of been operating on their own wave length for some time now. This FanGraphs article from last week is actually about the Royals, but it has a handy chart comparing payroll vs wins from 2007-2020, which serves as a pretty good proxy for the job Attanasio has done versus the Manaforts since they bought their respective teams in 2004/05... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-the-royals-can-win-the-al-central/ Brewers come in down at 24th in payroll yet up at 10th in wins, while the Rockies spent the 18th most on payroll (about 110 million more than the Brewers) to win the 22nd most games (77 fewer than the Brewers).
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MLB average so far is 4.31 runs per game, the Brewers have scored 4.33. Our batters have a wRC+ of 92, so about 8% below average. Considering none of Yelich, Wong or Cain are among our top 8 in PAs to this point I'd argue the offense has been fine. It's definitely been fun watching them put up a 133 wRC+ with RISP so far this year, the 4th highest mark in MLB.
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I'll guess... Wong 4 Urias 6 Taylor 8 Avi 9 Hiura 3 McKinney 7 Pina 2 Robertson 5
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If anyone here is a Data Engineer, it looks like the Brewers are looking for a new one... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-milwaukee-brewers-data-engineer/
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DSG put up a -21 DRS in about 1,300 innings at SS from 2011-13. He has played about 100 innings at SS in the 7 years since then. Reyes played 128 innings of SS at AAA in 2019, but he was primarily a LF. The only season of his minor league career that SS was his primary position was 2012 in the Dominican Rookie League. They certainly have experience, but I'm not sure the Brewers front office would consider them MLB capable defensively at SS outside of an emergency type situation.
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Who's the backup shortstop?
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Not at all. They might even end up only the 5th or 6th worst team after all 162 games are played.
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I agree the ERA has been pretty horrendous, but over only 56 innings that has much less predictive utility than FIP or xFIP, which both believe Lindblom has positive regression incoming. Will the positive regression come to pass, or is Lindblom just plain overmatched by MLB hitters, who knows? But I think the projections, flawed as they may be, still have a better track record than internet commenters, so I'll stick with the compooters for now.
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Knebel Traded to the Dodgers for PTBNL [LHP Leo Crawford]
sveumrules replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Except it wasn't a cost cutting measure. Brewers 2021 payroll was right in line with the pre-pandemic 2020 figure. It was a matter of resource allocation. Stearns & Company thought five million would be better spent on a starting 3B & starting pitcher versus a reliever third in line for high leverage innings. -
So you are supporting Lindblom's position on the roster then? He's currently on the IL, but assuming the Brewers re-instate him at some point I will trust the process behind that decision. If they decide to release him instead I will also trust the process behind that decision. League average ERA is 4.03 so far this year. Projections have Lindblom between a 4.30 & 4.91 ERA for the rest of the season. If he pitches to his projections for the rest of the year he would be a perfectly cromulent mop up guy.
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Lindblom is one of only 119 pitchers to throw at least 50 IP since 2021. That's about four guys per team. Sure, the results haven't been great. His 145 ERA- ranks 113th out of those 119 pitchers. But it could be worse. MadBum has a 166 ERA- since 2020 with 75 million left on his contract. ERA is also not the most predictive indicator over a sample of only 56 innings. FIP & xFIP are typically much better true talent estimators over a sample so small. By FIP-/xFIP- Lindblom has been much closer to average with 114/113 marks. After 2019, I went through the pitching leaderboards to try & come up with statistical guidelines for a #1, #2, #3 pitcher etc. Here is what I found... viewtopic.php?f=63&t=39386&p=1281201 Linblom's FIP-/xFIP- marks fall within the range of a number 4 starter. If he pitches closer to that level moving forward that's a pretty good mop up guy. If he pitches closer to his ERA- moving forward, well, that's why he's eating low leverage innings as the mop up guy.
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Knebel Traded to the Dodgers for PTBNL [LHP Leo Crawford]
sveumrules replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Hopefully Corey can come back strong with some rest & rehab. If he doesn't the Dodgers might only win 115 games this year. Easier to take a 5 million gamble with a 250 million payroll than a with 100 million payroll. -
Probably a little bit of small sample weirdness. From my understanding Barrel % requires certain exit velocity & launch angle parameters to qualify, whereas Hard Hit % is just based on exit velocity, but could still be a ground ball. Could be at this early juncture, that Freddy hasn't allowed many total "Hard Hit" balls, but most of the ones he has allowed have also met the "Barrel" criteria in terms of launch angle? Kind of makes sense intuitively since he gives up way more contact in the air (10.3 Line Drive %, 62.1 Fly Ball % so far this year) versus on the ground (27.6 Ground Ball %).
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In 2020 Nottingham caught six Burnes starts where he pitched to a 1.08 ERA with 52 K vs only 8 BB over 33 IP. Based on what Corbin has done this year I guess you could say Jacob was holding him back a little bit.
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Possible contenders getting less than ideal production from their catchers currently include... TOR: 6 wRC+ (Alejandro Kirk: 25 PAs, 54 wRC+ & Danny Jansen: 38 PAs, -26 wRC+) SEA: 22 wRC+ (Luis Torrens: 31 PAs, 61 wRC+ & Tom Murphy: 33 PAs, -15 wRC+) HOU: 32 wRC+ (Jason Castro: 26 PAs, 116 wRC+ & Martin Maldonando: 39 PAs, -24 wRC+) SDP: 36 wRC+ (Victor Caratini: 44 PAs, 70 wRC+ & Luis Campusano: 33 PAs, -10 wRC+) ATL: 52 wRC+ (Travis d'Arnaud: 64 PAs, 56 wRC+ & Alex Jackson: 11 PAs, 30 wRC+) OAK: 68 wRC+ (Sean Murphy: 47 PAs, 96 wRC+ & Aramis Garcia: 26 PAs, 17 wRC+) MIN: 75 wRC+ (Mitch Garver: 39 PAs, 110 wRC+ & Ryan Jeffers: 29 PAs, 13 wRC+)
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Ben Clemens over at FanGraphs spills some digital ink on Burnes today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-fire-puns-necessary-corbin-burnes-transcends-comedic-headlines/ & Jay Jaffe thinks its a great day for a doubleheader... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/corbin-burnes-walkless-run-is-incredible/
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Looks like the AAA season starts Tuesday May 4th. If Keston doesn't make some progress over the next couple two tree weeks I think he'll be trying to figure things out in Nashville.
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Yup. Didn't make the play, but still saved a run.
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Agree. Nine is batting through the order. Need the leadoff man to hit twice to truly bat "around".
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Daniel Vogel Back Back Back Back Back Back...You Oughta Know By Now Adrian Our Houser in the Middle of the Streeter (or Is A Very Very Very Fine Houser) Angel Perdomo Arigato Mister Roboto Corbin What Burnes Never Returns You Better Call Tyrone Taylor Avi Come Sail Away Garcia
