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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    2019 FanGraphs playoff odds with 14 games to play = 28.7% 2020 FanGraphs playoff odds with 14 games to play = 39.7%
  2. sveumrules
    2019 FanGraphs playoff odds with 14 games to play = 28.7% 2020 FanGraphs playoff odds with 14 games to play = 39.7%
  3. sveumrules
    Everyone wanted to fire Chris Hook at the beginning of last year, so far this year our pitching staff is 3rd in MLB by FIP based WAR.
  4. sveumrules
    Everyone wanted to fire Chris Hook at the beginning of last year, so far this year our pitching staff is 3rd in MLB by FIP based WAR.
  5. sveumrules
    Everyone wanted to fire Chris Hook at the beginning of last year, so far this year our pitching staff is 3rd in MLB by FIP based WAR.
  6. sveumrules
    The easiest way I've found to remain unconcerned is via the knowledge that any concern I may or may not have has literally zero bearing on how well or how poorly Christian Yelich (or anyone else) performs playing the game of baseball. Coming into the season, Yelich was projected by ZIPS for a 964 OPS. From August 3rd to September 8th (72% of his 2020 PAs) Christian posted a 946 OPS, essentially right in line with his projection when you account for the leaguewide OPS drop this year (770 in 2019 vs 745 in 2020). Yes, in his first 6 games (037/071/148) & his last 6 games (087/160/174) he hit like a pitcher, but for the overwhelming majority of the season he has hit in line with expectations.
  7. sveumrules
    The easiest way I've found to remain unconcerned is via the knowledge that any concern I may or may not have has literally zero bearing on how well or how poorly Christian Yelich (or anyone else) performs playing the game of baseball. Coming into the season, Yelich was projected by ZIPS for a 964 OPS. From August 3rd to September 8th (72% of his 2020 PAs) Christian posted a 946 OPS, essentially right in line with his projection when you account for the leaguewide OPS drop this year (770 in 2019 vs 745 in 2020). Yes, in his first 6 games (037/071/148) & his last 6 games (087/160/174) he hit like a pitcher, but for the overwhelming majority of the season he has hit in line with expectations.
  8. sveumrules
    The easiest way I've found to remain unconcerned is via the knowledge that any concern I may or may not have has literally zero bearing on how well or how poorly Christian Yelich (or anyone else) performs playing the game of baseball. Coming into the season, Yelich was projected by ZIPS for a 964 OPS. From August 3rd to September 8th (72% of his 2020 PAs) Christian posted a 946 OPS, essentially right in line with his projection when you account for the leaguewide OPS drop this year (770 in 2019 vs 745 in 2020). Yes, in his first 6 games (037/071/148) & his last 6 games (087/160/174) he hit like a pitcher, but for the overwhelming majority of the season he has hit in line with expectations.
  9. sveumrules
    Close ... Greg Vaughan. Vaughn was actually drafted by the Brewers. Sheff trade was Ricky Bones, Matt Mieske & Jose Valentin.
  10. sveumrules
    Right!?! It is ludicrous to try to "grade" that trade right now. My words on it were literally that I wasn't saying we lost the trade and we need to wait and see on Urias but that the 2020 Brewers are probably a playoff lock with Davies and Grisham. Which is probably true. Except Davies would have pitched to an entirely different slate of hitters, with a different defense behind him, in a different stadium & Grisham would only have like a 50 OPS+ with Haines as his hitting coach.
  11. sveumrules
    More Or Less Completely Made Up Outcome Odds For Remaining Ten Games Against Cardinals 10-0 | 1% STL | 1% MKE 9-1 | 2% STL | 1% MKE 8-2 | 9% STL | 6% MKE 7-3 | 12% STL | 8% MKE 6-4 | 15% STL | 10% MKE 5-5 | 35% Pretty much need to go 6-4 at worst to have a shot at the postseason.
  12. sveumrules
    If MVS could catch & MLF had a red zone clue & the defense could stop the run & we didn't give up inexcusable field goals before the half we'd already be up 44-0 by now.
  13. sveumrules
    FanGraphs tries to make sense of it all... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/corbin-burnes-and-the-ways-we-try-to-make-sense-of-all-of-this/
  14. sveumrules
    So is XFip suggesting that Burnes was mostly unlucky in 2019 when he gave up all those homers which destroyed his era? I’m trying to understand how his xfip last season was so close to this years number? I just can’t reconcile those numbers when watching him pitch........he looks like a completely different pitcher and all of his other numbers seem to back that up. I did notice his babip last season was .414 compared to .233 this year.......but I also thought I read somewhere that his hard hit percentage or exit velocity allowed was also down from last year.? Yes, xFIP normalizes HR/FB rate because it can be fluky over a full season, much less in smaller samples. There are 6,747 individual seasons with at least 40 IP since 2002 when HR/FB% is available on FanGraphs leaderboards. Corbin's 38.6% HR/FB rate in 2019 is 6,747th in the sample & it's not really close, only two more over 30% & essentially only five seasons within 10%. In 2019 his K9+ was 144 vs a BB9+ of 111 for a K/BB+ of 129 compared to a K9+ of 141 vs a BB9+ of 105 for a K/BB+ of 134 in 2020, so only off by a handful of percentage points in terms of Ks & BBs. HR9+ was 229 in 2019 vs 14 so far in 2020, so xFIP is suggesting his 2.9% HR/FB rate so far this year is just about as unsustainable (but in the opposite direction) of his 38.6 HR/FB% last year.
  15. sveumrules
    Burnes is a great example for how unreliable ERA is as a true talent indicator in small samples compared to xFIP... 2018: 38 IP | 64 ERA- | 93 xFIP- 2019: 49 IP | 199 ERA- | 76 xFIP- 2020: 45 IP | 43 ERA- | 70 xFIP-
  16. sveumrules
    Adrian Houser this season: First 2gs: 2-0, 0.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP Last 6gs: 0-4, 7.45 ERA, 1.62 WHIP I was hoping to be wrong and said it in this thread. I don’t think I am and the numbers continue to pile up. He wasn't the second coming of Cy Young after two starts & he isn't completely doomed as a starting pitcher because of his last six outings. Neither of those samples are large enough to have any predictive power, especially for a stat as noisy as ERA. Over the last two seasons Houser has 123 IP as a starter, a larger sample than 2 or 6 starts, but still of limited predictive value. In those 123 IP, he has posted a 109 ERA- & 97 FIP-, so he's been in the vicinity of league average overall. About a #4 by ERA & a #3 by FIP. The most predictive stat after only 123 IP would be xFIP-, where Adrian has posted an 84 mark, in line with a #2 starter. From the looks of things, Adrian is about a #3 by true talent, with upside to still become a #2 or maybe his results never catch up to his peripherals & he ends up a #4 or bullpen piece. The only thing that's really certain at this point is its still too early to really know anything for certain.
  17. sveumrules
    While this is good, the goalposts for the playoffs have been moved drastically this year, after already being moved closer twice previously in the last 25 years. That's my only issue comparing Stearns to previous regimes using playoffs as a bar. How about regular season wins as a bar? From 2017-19 the Brewers won 271 games, 2nd most in franchise history behind the 274 they won from 1978-80.
  18. sveumrules
    Need to get this one if we want to win the series since Bieber is going to no hit us on Sunday.
  19. sveumrules
    (462 HR + 1317 BB + 2379 K) / 8328 PA = 49.9 3TO%, Dunn literally missed hitting 50% 3TO right on the nose by 1 HR/BB/K. One of my all time favorite stats is that Adam Dunn (25.6 fWAR/18.0 bWAR) & Juan Pierre (24.0 fWAR/17.3 bWAR) have almost exactly the same career WAR though they had complete opposite playing styles.
  20. sveumrules
    He’ll have reached Russell Branyan-level legend status by this time next week. A bit of an off topic observation, but Russell the Muscle was about 15 years ahead of his time. Everyone looked at his strikeouts and low batting average and scoffed but he got on base and hit homeruns, everything everyone wants these days. Russell Branyan career: 11.9 BB% | 32.9 K% | 17.5 PA/HR 2020 MLB Average: 9.2 BB% | 23.1 K% | 28.5 PA/HR The league isn't quite as extreme as The Grand Branyan just yet, but in 1993 league averages were down at 8.8 BB% | 14.6 K% | 42.1 PA/HR, so maybe by around 2050 or so MLB will just stand for Major League Branyan.
  21. sveumrules
    I'd imagine Stearns checked in on Didi, but I'm pretty sure two reasons he mentioned liking Philly were the proximity to NY & his old manager Girardi was there. Tweet mentioning Brewers as runner up & Girardi playing a factor...
  22. sveumrules
    Stearns & company have a 361-324 record so far, good for a .527 winning percentage. From 1990-99 the Brewers posted a 742-811 record, "good" for a .478 winning percentage. I'd say his rosters have been considerably better than what the Brewers put together in the 1990's.
  23. sveumrules
    Looks like their standard card slabs are about 1/4" thick.
  24. sveumrules
    Yup, this exactly. He ranked #16 on the BF.Net Top 25 before this very season (with only Mr Southpaw having him in the Top 10 at #7). A great of example of why prospect rankings, while informative with proper context, are far from gospel.
  25. sveumrules
    Updated playoff probability tiers with 538/FanGraphs odds... Tier 1 (virtual locks): LAD (>99%/100%) ATL (>99%/99%) CHI (99%/99%) SDP (99%/99%) Tier 2 (leg up on 5/6 seeds): PHI (82%/86%) STL (78%/71%) Tier 3 (battling it out for last two spots): MIL (55%/53%) SFG (39%/42%) CIN (35%/40%) COL (35%/35%) NYM (32%/40%) MIA (32%/29%) Tier 4 (better luck next year): WAS (10%/5%) ARI (6%/3%) PIT (<1%/0.1%)
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