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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    All of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff excelled & exceeded expectations under Hook's tutelage in the minors. I'm willing to give everybody a little more time. It's the top of 2nd inning of the 17th game of the season. We are in first place. Lorenzo Cain is cool.
  2. sveumrules
    I'm not familiar at all with unions. Is around 3% of your salary anywhere close to "normal" union dues? Not sure what normal union dues are either, but I'm also not sure of any other union that guarantees a $34,000 annual pension after only 43 days on the job.
  3. sveumrules
    Wow, this couldn't possibly be lazier. Actually yes it could, you could say "well...I've only ever seen him throw 2 pitches so.....". But come on man. Every scouting report that exists says that Burnes throws 4 pitches. Throwing four pitches in the minor leagues is much different than throwing four pitches in the Major Leagues. When Burnes has pitched a full season deploying all four pitches with success against Major League hitters I will consider him a four pitch pitcher. If the curve or change up were currently as good as the slider, I believe they would have been thrown more even in relief. Through three starts this year I still think Corbin Burnes is essentially a two pitch pitcher.
  4. sveumrules
    Thanks as always for putting the time into compiling this all, reilly. Will be interesting to see how the list looks after a couple two tree months of performance from the incumbents, an infusion of new talent after the June draft & then any potential losses or additions around the trade deadline.
  5. sveumrules
    The Brewers will not lose today & are still in first place at the time of this internet posting.
  6. sveumrules
    Lucas Erceg makes an appearance in FanGraphs Daily Prospect Notes for 04/10. Excerpt... Erceg is one of the more prominent early-adopters of some of Driveline Baseball’s hitting philosophies, which has made him a bit of a visual focal point for reasons other than just talent evaluation. He’s a pretty extreme fly ball hitter who will show power to all fields, but he hasn’t performed on paper. In my opinion, it’s a selectivity issue more than a mechanical one. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-4-10-19/
  7. sveumrules
    Even assuming "operating income = profit", doesn't really tell anyone much about that assumed 66 million. Each team received a one time payment of 50 million dollars from the sale of MLBAM in 2018 & the Brewers also made a postseason run which will increase profits. The 50 million is definitely not getting paid out again this year & making the postseason is yet to be determined. Short of winning the WS, I would imagine the Brewers profits decrease this year compared to last year.
  8. sveumrules
    Through the first 12 games of 2018 our starters threw 60.1 innings with a 4.92 ERA/5.12 FIP/4.74 xFIP. Through the first 12 games of 2019 our starters have thrown 61.0 innings with a 5.61 ERA/5.32 FIP/4.18 x FIP. Conclusion: 12 games is too small of a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions except that even if the trio of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta do happen to last all season in the rotation their performance will more likely be of the ups & downs variety than of the more consistent variety (but we probably already knew that).
  9. sveumrules
    Cool to see the Brewers placing second in revenue per fan with only the Giants ahead of us.
  10. sveumrules
    Gonna be up awhile longer, crack another bottle open.
  11. sveumrules
    One number that Roegner (26), Sunitsch (23) & Ashby (21) have in common with Woodruff (26), Burnes (24) & Peralta (23) is age during the 2019 season. Ashby has the best stuff & is the youngest, so he's clearly got the best shot of the three. At Sunitsch's age Corbin & Freddy were already in MLB & Woodruff split the year between A+ (8 starts) & AA (20 starts), so all three were more advanced at the same age. Maybe he takes a big step forward this year, I wouldn't be upset, but he'd need at least two big steps forward to match even Woodruff's progression. Roegner had a shiny ERA at age 25 in A+, but even his best comp of Suter split his age 25 season between AA/AAA so he was also a couple levels higher than Cam at the same age.
  12. sveumrules
    Willians Astudillo batting 667/636/1000 over his first 11 plate appearances to start the season, still no strikeouts or walks though he was hit by a pitch. Over his first 108 MLB PAs he has a higher batting average (382 vs 366) & lower K% (2.8 vs 4.1) than Ty Cobb.
  13. sveumrules
    Pina did catch 68.2 of Peralta's 78.1 innings last year, when the team clearly seemed to be using some sort of catcher/pitcher buddy system once Kratz got here. Will be interesting to see if they continue to be paired up this season now that Grandal is here.
  14. sveumrules
    Peralta 2018 night games: 187/301/363 in 227 PA against. Peralta 2018 day games: 159/266/256 in 94 PA against. Also a small sample, but Peralta was better during day games last year by almost 150 points worth of OPS against.
  15. sveumrules
    It also can't be overstated that the Reds have been the literal worst team in MLB for the last five years, that will go along way towards building fan apathy. As much as I'm sure some posters would've loved for us to bottom out for that long, Attanasio has clearly had other designs & it shows in our attendance (especially when considered relative to market size) throughout his ownership tenure.
  16. sveumrules
    2016: Arcia "called up to soon" at 21. Hits 219/273/358 over 216 PA for a 66 OPS+. 2017: Full time starter at SS hits 277/324/407 for an 89 OPS+. League average for SS was 264/319/419. Best month was June at 326/370/478 in 100 PA. Sure, it was only 100 PA, but it's still more than 17. 2018: Terrible over first 212 PAs at 197/231/251. Demoted. Hits 290/320/386 in 154 PA upon his return then 333/353/606 in 34 postseason PAs. So yes, in aggregate, he's been bad for his career & bad in a miniscule sample to start the season & has often looked completely lost, but there have also been stretches of varying lengths where he has performed adequately or even better & shown flashes of the tools he posseses that just need to be unlocked more consistently. 2019 forward: I'd say there's about a 50% percent chance he hits below league average for a SS, 35% chance he hits between league average for a SS & a 100-110 OPS+ which leaves about a 15% chance he hits for above a 110 OPS+...which would be pretty cool.
  17. sveumrules
    The deal only covers four FA seasons & Acuna likely would've qualified for Super Two so he would have gotten four arbitration years instead of three. I don't see how guaranteeing oneself 100 million dollars can be construed as a disastrous decision. Sure, he may not have maximized his earning potential, but having a 100 million is hardly disastrous.
  18. sveumrules
    When you've been the worst team in MLB for a five year stretch & have seen attendance decline each year, you've got to at least give the illusion of trying. None of the moves they made really put a dent into their future since they were mostly short term commitments & none of the guys they dealt were considered impact pieces anyway. Maybe it will work, maybe it won't. Some posters around here seem to think DJ is worth 10+ wins by himself. If it doesn't work & they suck again, what have they really lost?
  19. sveumrules
    Reds home opener 2018: 43,878 Reds home opener 2019: 44,049 Reds 1st Sunday 2018: 10,355 Reds 1st Sunday 2019: 18,737 So far, so good. Three home games into the season is probably a little early to say if the Reds efforts to go from "literal worst team in MLB over the last five years" to "maybe somewhat respectable" will lead to increased attendance or not, but I'd imagine if they win some games people will come out & if they don't they won't. Smallest crowd in over a decade tonight. From 2010-13 the Reds made the playoffs three out of four seasons, their attendance rose every season from 2.061 million in 2010 to 2.492 million in 2013. Ten years ago they were competitive. In the five years since, they've lost the most games in all of MLB & attendance has declined each year to 1.629 million in 2018. I'll maintain if Cincy is closer to being a .500 team (which is all they are "contending" for this year) than they are to being the worst team in MLB they have been for the last five seasons that they will draw more than 1.629 million, if they suck again for a sixth year in a row they won't. Guess we'll just have to check back in the fall to see if their plan "worked" or didn't.
  20. sveumrules
    We never trailed the entire game. Sign me up for more of those disasters.
  21. sveumrules
    One inning, apparently.
  22. sveumrules
    01. Keston Hiura 02. Corey Ray 03. Zack Brown 04. Tristen Lutz 05. Brice Turang 06. Adrian Houser 07. Troy Stokes Jr. 08. Clayton Andrews 09. Aaron Ashby 10. Mauricio Dubon 11. Lucas Erceg 12. Jacob Nottingham 13. Angel Perdomo 14. Trey Supak 15. Marcos Diplan 16. Braden Webb 17. Eduardo Garcia 18. Carlos Rodriguez 19. Tyrone Taylor 20. Trent Grisham 21. Payton Henry 22. Mario Feliciano 23. Joe Gray Jr. 24. Je'Von Ward 25. Micah Bello
  23. sveumrules
    66 pitches through four for Davies. Could he maybe...deep breath...get 18 outs tonight?
  24. sveumrules
    Gotta figure they'll give him at least a month or so. They started Domingo 40 of the first 50 games last year before his playing time started falling off. Hope Dubon gets off to a hot start so we can maybe see someone if not better at least different.
  25. sveumrules
    Weird how their half-assed attempt to contend isn't leading to better attendance. Reds home opener 2018: 43,878 Reds home opener 2019: 44,049 Reds 1st Sunday 2018: 10,355 Reds 1st Sunday 2019: 18,737 So far, so good. Three home games into the season is probably a little early to say if the Reds efforts to go from "literal worst team in MLB over the last five years" to "maybe somewhat respectable" will lead to increased attendance or not, but I'd imagine if they win some games people will come out & if they don't they won't.
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