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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Keon broke out at age 24 in AA, repeated AA for 45 games at age 25 before getting the bump to AAA then was acquired by the Brewers & spent his age 26 season between AAA/MLB. Corey broke out at age 23 in AA & is currently struggling in AAA at age 24. That is still at least a year ahead of Keon's developement. Less than ideal for a 5th overall pick to be sure, but still too early to completely write him off considering he played part of the year hurt & was always more of a tools guy than a polish guy despite his high draft slot.
  2. sveumrules
    The eyeball test is what people rely on when their opinion isn't factually correct. How many other 3B coaches have you extensively watched to determine their performance relative to his? None, I just know that the windmill is bad at what he does because I watch 150 games a year... There are 2,430 MLB games per season. Even if somebody watches 150 Brewers games plus 75 more random games throughtout the year, they've still seen less than 10% of all MLB games. What if 3rd base coaches in the other 90 plus % of the games are making the same or worse decisions? What if our front office has actually parsed data from all 2,430 MLB games over multiple seasons & determined the best course of action is to be aggressive sending runners in certain situations & have communicated to Eddie they would like him to act accordingly & that is how he somehow manages to keep his job year after year?
  3. sveumrules
    He has been employed by the Brewers for a long time, if they thought was bad he would be fired. That isn't a stat, it's just logic. If he was going rogue out there & just sending guys at his own discretion, he would have been fired. That he hasn't been fired, when everyone thinks it's so obvious he should be, indicates to me that him sending guys aggressively is part of an organizational philosophy dictated from the top down. Just because they keep a coach around doesn't mean they can't do better. McCarthy kept Capers around too damn long in GB. Eventually Capers performance was judged as being below standard by his employers, he was fired. Sedar has not been fired, which indicates to me that his employers have found his performance acceptable to this point.
  4. sveumrules
    He has been employed by the Brewers for a long time, if they thought was bad he would be fired. That isn't a stat, it's just logic. If he was going rogue out there & just sending guys at his own discretion, he would have been fired. That he hasn't been fired, when everyone thinks it's so obvious he should be, indicates to me that him sending guys aggressively is part of an organizational philosophy dictated from the top down.
  5. sveumrules
    Combination of costing more than our internal arms, having less flexibility than our internal arms on account of not having any options left & not being demonstrably better than those same internal arms that were cheaper/provided more roster flexibility. It's almost like a pitching version of Choi. When you are already a good MLB team & are also good at identifying useful pieces around the margins (as it seems Stearns & company are), you will inevitably have to let some of those pieces around the margins go because there just isn't room for all of them on the 25 man roster.
  6. sveumrules
    *was pitching.
  7. sveumrules
    We are one of the top two tree teams in the NL to this point. That is an M/O I can live with. Thank Yelich Hader Davies for the decent record. Thank you Christian. Thank you Josh. Thank you Zach. Thank you everyone else. (It is a team enterprise after all). Also, thank you Stearns & company plus CC & his cohorts (except ol' Windmill Eddie of course)
  8. sveumrules
    We are currently 5th in the NL in OBP, 1st in LOB & 3rd in runs scored. As long as we continue to reach base at a good rate, we should continue to score runs at a good rate, but it will also mean we also will have a high number of runners LOB. That is just a "consequence" of having a good offense. Anyone know if there is anywhere that tracks % of base runners who score on a team wide level? I'm guessing it wouldn't have much predictive value but still might be interesting to look into.
  9. sveumrules
    Unfortunately it’s become the M/O of this team. We are one of the top two tree teams in the NL to this point. That is an M/O I can live with.
  10. sveumrules
    Couple two tree more starts like that & Jimmy should be ready to go. It's almost starting to feel real.
  11. sveumrules
    There's also a strong possibility that the main reason Glasnow turned the corner in the first place was because he got out of Pittsburgh (where they have a reputation for trying to fit all their pitchers in the same box) & went to Tampa (one of the most forward thinking organizations that encourages pitchers to pitch to their individual strengths). Definitely glad it was Pittsburgh that finally ponied up for Archer & not us.
  12. sveumrules
    Claudio posted 3.7 fWAR/4.8 bWAR in the three seasons before we acquired him & likely projects to produce similar value over the three years of control we have. For comparison, here are the fifteen #39 picks from 2000-14... Negative WAR (3): David Huff (2006, -1.8), Anthony Ranaudo (2010, -1.5), Connor Joe (2014, -0.1). No MLB (7): Chad Hawkins (2000), Wyatt Allen (2001), Jay Rainville (2004), Hank Sanchez (2005), James Adkins (2007), Kentrail Davis (2009), Larry Greene (2011). Push (3): Mark Teahan (2002, 2 .6), TGJ (2003, 5.2), Knebel (2013, 4.3) Win (2): Lance Lynn (2008, 15.1), Joey Gallo (2012, 7.0) So you've got 10 guys who provided zilch or worse & 3 guys who provided similar value against only 2 guys who produced more value than Alex likely projects to provide. I'm guessing the front office has performed much more comprehensive versions of this exercise & the results probably came back that three years of Claudio had a much higher likelihood of providing positive value than the 39th pick in any draft.
  13. sveumrules
    Maybe the front office views Freitas as a better long term option so they want him to keep playing every day in AAA while Nottingham is more familiar with our pitchers which makes him a better fit for the one or two games whoever got the call would end up playing? Last year Jacob came up to cover for injury in April but Kratz got the call later in the season when they needed someone more long term. If Freitas keeps hitting in San Antonio something similar could play out again later this summer.
  14. sveumrules
    A slump "this long" is still only 154 PAs, it has very little predictive value. Jose Ramirez has a 60 wRC+ & Hunter Dozier has a 171 wRC+. Are those representative of their true talent levels? Even a quarter of the way into the season we are still dealing in very unstable sample sizes. I would wager one can of Budweiser Light beer that Shaw's wRC+ when he returns will be closer to the 120 mark he posted the last two years than it is to his current 46.
  15. sveumrules
    Rasmussen did get a mention among the others of note section in the FG write up of the system for whatever that is or isn't worth. Putting together prospect lists is about taking into account the full range of potential outcomes & weighing them against each other based upon their individual likelihoods. I'd say Drew's performed within the top 1-5% of potential outcomes thus far which means there was a 95-99% chance he wouldn't. Even though Drew is obviously talented, he had yet to throw a professional IP, didn't pitch at all in 2018 & only 64 total innings in 2016-17 on account of two different elbow procedures. He came in at #23 on the preseason poll here & only made 7 of 27 ballots. Four of those ballots had him in the top seven, three had him between 15-24 & twenty had him outside the top 25. That is a pretty good microcosm of the wide range of potential outcomes entering the season.
  16. sveumrules
    He was already in AAA long enough that 2019 will not count as a full season of MLB service time. The only uncertainty is if he will qualify for Super Two which would mean four trips through Arbys instead of the standard three. I don't believe we will officially know that until the end of the season though.
  17. sveumrules
    vs LHP 256/334/471 vs RHP 237/319/415 We've actually been better vs LHP than vs RHP to this point in the season. Really handicapped vs lefties, even worse vs righties, 24-17, not bad.
  18. sveumrules
    That play was pretty much Arcia in a nutshell.
  19. sveumrules
    So what does that mean? How does a slight advantage manifest in wins/losses? Most teams have a slight advantage being at home anyway. What does that mean? Not sure I need to comment any further. I would guesstimate the likelihood of each potential outcome for this series at somewhere around... Cubs 2-1 (50%) Crew 2-1 (35%) Cubs 3-0 (10%) Crew 3-0 (5%) If you're saying a possible Cubs weather advantage swings it to... Cubs 2-1 (52%) Crew 2-1 (33%) Cubs 3-0 (11%) Crew 3-0 (4%) Sure, why not.
  20. sveumrules
    Quintana, Hamels & Lester have been pitching consecutively in the Cubs rotation the last three trips through, dating back to April 23rd, which followed Chatwood's lone start of the season on the 21st & an off day on the 22nd, so it does kind of look like they used that opportunity to "reset" their rotation.
  21. sveumrules
    At this still very early juncture the only results that matter are wins & losses, we are 13-9. Individual category ranks for our pitchers prior to tonight's game were... K9 9.34 (12th) BB9 3.94 (22nd) HR9 1.85 (28th) ERA 5.21 (25th) FIP 5.07 (25th) xFIP 4.34 (17th) The only thing dreadful is a fluky high HR9 (which can happen over less than 200 team IP thus far) which is driving the poor ERA/FIP numbers. I'd bet our ERA/FIP are closer to our current xFIP at season's end than their current levels. Thought it might be interesting to revisit this post from April 20th & see how the last three weeks have changed things... K9 9.33 (9th) BB9 3.66 (20th) HR9 1.51 (26th) ERA 4.60 (21st) FIP 4.56 (21st) xFIP 4.14 (10th) So in just under three weeks our current ERA/FIP have almost caught up with our xFIP from April 20th, while our current xFIP has lowered to a top 10 mark on account of our gains in BB9/HR9 & other teams' losses in K9. Interesting to note is that our ERA is currently underperforming our xFIP, while over the last three years it has been the exact opposite with our ERA outperforming our xFIP by an average of 0.30 per season. (3.94 ERA vs 4.24 xFIP, 2016-18) Assuming DJ's pixie dust wasn't solely responsible for that, it could indicate that our pitching staff is due for even more positive regression than some of the surface level indicators say.
  22. sveumrules
    And despite being drafted at a late age and not playing a full season in the majors until age 30, he was in the majors two years after being drafted and will make at least $25M in his career. Tip of the cap to you, Mr. Fiers. Throw in his Nova Southeastern teammates JD Martinez & Miles Mikolas & you've got almost a quarter billion dollars in career earnings/future guarantees. Not bad for a school with a 117 million endowment.
  23. sveumrules
    Why wait that long when we can anoint Derek Johnson as the saviour that got away & sunk our entire season while calling for Hook's termination in IGT's less than 25% of the way into the season? What you're advocating for doesn't sound like very much fun.
  24. sveumrules
    Who was the last consensus top 20 prospect traded for a half season rental? Gleyber Torres in 2016 when he was dealt by the Cubs for Chapman I think. Even then Gleyber was at #41 (BA), #28 (MLB) & #41 (BP) pre-2016 in the rankings. He had hit 275/359/433 (121 wRC+) before the trade as a 19 year old in A+, so his value was probably a little higher by mid-season but it didn't really explode until after he hit 403/513/645 in the AZ Fall League following the trade. At the time he was acquired Chapman was the best closer in the game coming off four straight elite seasons. Hiura was at #17 (BA), #20 (MLB) & #6 (BP) in the rankings this year & has hit 349/405/780 (176 wRC+) so far as a 22 year old in AAA. If the Brewers do ultimately decide to deal Keston (I don't think they will) the return will be much more than a half season of currently mediocre Madison Bumgarner coming off two mediocre injury shortened seasons.
  25. sveumrules
    Who was the last consensus top 20 prospect traded for a half season rental?
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