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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Chris Hook coached Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff & all our other young pitchers in the minors. Weird how they have all exceeded expectations despite him not being a real pitching coach.
  2. sveumrules
    FanGraphs Staff Predictions are out & they have us ostensibly tying with STL for the division, so I hope they are a reliable website (though an outright division win would of course be preferable) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-2019-staff-predictions/
  3. sveumrules
    The last two years Braun has started 95 & 97 games in the field, so there has always been a high likelihood that Gamel would start 80+ games. There's also Corey Ray (& Troy Stokes & Tyrone Taylor) in AAA.
  4. sveumrules
    I liked Coal Hill Steakhouse when I was in Pittsburgh. Wasn't anything fancy, kind of had an up nort sort of vibe, but it's up on a bluff over one of the rivers & had some really cool views.
  5. sveumrules
    Love Willians. Hopefully he can find a way to get a couple two tree hundred plate appearances with the Twins this year.
  6. sveumrules
    Holliday age 31-36 was all with STL, so no DH. From age 31-36 only 37 of Berkman's 747 games were in the AL, so not really a DH. Konerko age 31-36 played 732 games at 1B vs 132 at DH, so still not really a DH. Encarnacion is the only comp I listed that was a primary DH post age 30.
  7. sveumrules
    At least the Badgers waited until the tourney to get throttled in a game this season, I guess. Last year Gard's squad got throttled plenty - by 25 against Ohio State, by 19 against Marquette, by 28 against Purdue & by 18 against Iowa. Bo's teams had plenty of big tourney losses over the years too - by 30 against Maryland in 02, by 19 against Arizona in 06, by 17 against Davidson in 08 & by 18 against Cornell in 10.
  8. sveumrules
    In Freddy's other seven starts he threw a total of 29.2 innings. Add it all up & 73.2 innings in 14 starts is a average of 5.26 IP per start. Right in line with team average. All three of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta should pitch into the sixth inning & beyond multiple times this season, but there will also surely times that they don't make it to the fifth inning. We got 883 & 873 IP out of our starters the first two year Stearns was here before dropping down to 847 last year for a three year average of about 868, I'd still take the under on that but won't be upset if we end up higher.
  9. sveumrules
    Matt Holliday, Edwin Encarnacion & even someone like Paul Konerko are other recent big bodied guys that could be decent-ish comps that were still productive post-30... Goldy age 28-30 OPS+: 138 Holliday age 28-30 OPS+: 142 Holliday age 31-36 OPS+: 133 Edwin age 28-30 OPS+: 137 Edwin age 31-35 OPS+: 135 Konerko age 28-30 OPS+: 132 Konerko age 31-36 OPS+: 128 Berkman lines up alright too... Goldy before 30 OPS+: 145 Berkman before 30 OPS+: 149 Berkman age 31-36 OPS+: 142
  10. sveumrules
    Our starting pitchers as a whole only averaged 5.2 innings (2/10ths, not 2/3rds) per start for the entirety of the 2018 season. I would imagine Burnes, Peralta & Woodruff all come in around that same number if they stick in the rotation all season. At 28-30 starts each that would get them into the 140-160 inning range.
  11. sveumrules
    MLBTR is reporting that the 12/430 includes the 2/66.5 he still had left on his old deal, so really only a 10 year/363.5 million extension. Had he stayed healthy & put up two more Trout caliber seasons, one has to believe he would have gotten way more than 10/363.5 on the open market, so really only an "underpay" when viewed in that context. The bolded part is what people are glossing over and it's a very important consideration in the value of this extension. Not everyone is glossing it over...
  12. sveumrules
    MLBTR is reporting that the 12/430 includes the 2/66.5 he still had left on his old deal, so really only a 10 year/363.5 million extension. Had he stayed healthy & put up two more Trout caliber seasons, one has to believe he would have gotten way more than 10/363.5 on the open market, so really only an "underpay" when viewed in that context.
  13. sveumrules
    In his first seven full seasons Trout already has the 4th highest seven year peak WAR (63.8) of any CF with only Mays (73.7), Cobb (69.2) & Mantle (64.8) ahead of him & Tris Speaker (62.4) just behind him. For comparison the 2nd best contemporary CF, Griffey Junior, had a seven year peak WAR of 54.0. So far Trout's two low seasons are 6.7 WAR (2017) & 7.6 WAR (2014). A couple more ten win seasons would push him ahead of Cobb, but he's gonna need some monster seasons to catch Willie. Will be fun to watch unfold.
  14. sveumrules
    Good for Mike. My strategy if I was him would've been "Half Billion or I test the market", but I guess at that point is it really worth risking injury over 70 million measly bucks? Obligatory reminder that had Sabathia ranked higher than Teixeira in the free agent rankings we would have gotten the pick used to select Trout instead of the Angels. Looks like we got Kentrail Davis & Max Walla with our picks.
  15. sveumrules
    I wouldn't say its so much being negative, as we've kinda been conditioned as long-time Brewer fans to expect the worst with it comes to player health. I've said previously I think Nelson is capable of 25 GS, 140 IP & a 110 ERA+ in 2019. That would easily be the 2nd best season of his career & is better than any of the publicly available projections for Jimmy. I'd say that makes me more of an optimistic ollie or realistic ricky than it makes me a negative nelly. Hopefully six months from now Jimmy's 2017 will no longer be an outlier, but until then, by definition, it is.
  16. sveumrules
    With VGJ hurt I'd give a slight edge to Eloy even though the White Sox are playing the service time game with him. Pete Alonso with the Mets might be another guy to keep an eye on, especially if he lands the starting gig & breaks camp with the team.
  17. sveumrules
    How would shortening games to eight innings in the future screw up historical statistics from the past?
  18. sveumrules
    Chase pre-2017 | 418 IP (96 ERA+) Jimmy pre-2017 | 436 IP (93 ERA+) Nelson actually had a slightly longer track record of mediocrity than Chase did prior to 2017. Everyone's free to come up with their own definition of outlier, but when you have 436 IP of 93 ERA+ work & 175 innings of 126 ERA+, that meets the commonly accepted definition. Yes, I believe Jimmy took a step forward in 2017, but I also know he got hurt in & in a very unusual manner. I said earlier in the thread I thought a "healthy" Nelson was capable of 25 starts, 140 innings & a 110 ERA+. I'm expecting the under on all three, but will gladly take the over should that come to pass.
  19. sveumrules
    There was a really interesting piece in the FanGraphs Community Research section recently which broke dwon how much value each team received in 2018 from the various sources (Draft, FA, Trade, Waivers) of player acquisition. https://community.fangraphs.com/where-teams-got-their-value-in-2018/ TL,DR version is that the 2018 Brewers lead all of MLB in WAR acquired externally (39.2 WAR, NYY 2nd with 35.2 WAR) but were also dead last in WAR developed internally (3.9 WAR, DET 2nd worst with 4.2 WAR).
  20. sveumrules
    Jimmy may have turned a corner in 2017 & if he didn't get hurt we would have found out by now if he actually did. As it stands now in 2015 he pitched 177 innings with a 96 ERA+, in 2016 he pitched 179 innings with a 92 ERA+ & in 2017 he pitched 175 innings with a 126 ERA+. Until he repeats his 2017 it will be the outlier.
  21. sveumrules
    JJ has been a full time MLB reliever for the last four years. He ranks 18th in games (264), 10th in innings (266) & 9th in runs allowed based WAR (7.6) over that time. The year before that in 2014 he threw 73 IP over 62 G between MLB/AAA. In 2012 he threw 72 IP over 51 G between AA/AAA/MLB. Yes, he pitched a lot of high stress innings in 2018, but ultimately he's been throwing a baseball around 95 MPH for the last 15 years or so, eventually that catches up with everybody. All you can really do is hope it's just the kind of overcomeable spring training hiccup that numerous pitchers have every year & if it's something worse than that hope for a speedy recovery.
  22. sveumrules
    Even if Nelson is "healthy" all year, I'd imagine he is still handled with some degree of caution - limited to twice through the lineup unless he's cruising, occasional skipped or pushed back start for extra rest, etc. 25 starts, 140 innings, 110 ERA+ seems like it falls somewhere in the overlap of the venn diagram with Optimistic & Realistic expectations for Jimmy's season . I'd glady accept anything over that & will certainly expect less.
  23. sveumrules
    Not sure about back in his heyday, but a couple friends of mine met KKB at events in recent years & really enjoyed it. As much as WM3 was memorable for Uecker's shenanigans & Hogan slamming Andre the Giant, I'll never forget Bundy splashing Little Beaver in the midget match. Pretty sure Ueck was on the mic with Jesse Ventura & Gorilla Monsoon for that one & got in some classic Ueck one liners.
  24. sveumrules
    Here is the most detailed info I could find about postseason revenue splits with a quick search. Interesting that the players only receive a split from the guaranteed games (1-3 in DS, 1-4 in CS, WS) & receive nothing from the if neccesary games... The players' pool is formed from 50 percent of the gate receipts from the Wild Card Games; 60 percent of the gate receipts from the first three games of the Division Series; 60 percent of the gate receipts from the first four games of the League Championship Series; and 60 percent of the gate receipts from the first four games of the World Series. The players' pool was divided among the 10 Postseason Clubs: the two World Series participants, the two League Championship Series runners-up, the four Division Series runners-up and the two runners-up in the Wild Card Games. The 2017 players' pool was a record total of $84,500,432.15, eclipsing last year's $76,627,827.09.
  25. sveumrules
    Highly recommend the Les Blank: Always For Pleasure box set. Grabbed it a couple years back when B&N had one of their 50% off sales & it is one of my favorites in whole collection.
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