sveumrules

JJ didn't get much Spring Training. I think concern is warranted, but he's looked fine in his other outings, and was hitting 93-94. I want to see if he bounces back before getting worried. I know this isn't popular, but I just don't think he's that good. He's certainly dealing with a shoulder issue, but I've said all off-season, and I think others have agreed(maybe?) that last year was an outlier. He was never going to be THAT pitcher again. So if you're expecting him to dominate like that, you're going to be disappointed no matter what. Seeing him coming back, getting his velocity back up slowly and getting his movement has me encouraged that he's going to be more like the pitcher he's normally been for the Brewers. A pretty good high leverage reliever, but not a dominant, among the best in the league type. I think this is pretty much it. In 2015 there were 132 relievers with at least 50 IP. Jeffress ranked 40th in ERA- (66) & 54th in FIP- (81). In 2016 there were 130 relievers with at least 50 IP. Jeffress ranked 22nd in ERA- (54) & 48th in FIP- (77). In 2017 he was bad. In 2018 there were 147 relievers with at least 50 IP. Jeffress ranked 2nd in ERA- (32) & 28th in FIP- (67). For context, there have been 1,355 reliever seasons with at least 50 IP over the last 10 years. JJ's 32 ERA- in 2018 ranks 18th in the entire sample. His runs allowed WAR of 4.0 ranks 4th in the entire sample (tied with Knebel in 2017). The odds of him (or anyone, really) repeating that performance are astronomically low. The odds of him being say a top 20-40 reliever in MLB, which is still a reliable high leverage option, are much better. (Added side note, JJ is a great example for how much more noise is present in ERA over small samples than something like FIP which falls within a much narrower band of outcomes.)

In the OP we had a 46% chance of making the playoffs per 538. As of today we have a 43% chance of making the playoffs per 538. So, for as horrendously as we have played to begin the season, our playoff odds have changed negligibly. For a little more context, here is a Jeff Sullivan article from June of last year which takes a look at which of 1st half actual results, 1st half pythagorean results & 2nd half projected results is better at predicting 2nd half results... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/ tl,dr version (though I highly recommend reading it as Sullivan was snatched up by the Rays) is that even half way through the season, the projections still do a much better job at predicting 2nd half results than either of 1st half actual results or 1st half pythagorean results. & that is 50% through the season, we are currently about 21% through the season. I know projections are a dirty word for some around here, so if you prefer, what you thought of the team entering the season is likely still more informative of their future results than what has transpired thus far.

There's no denying things have looked pretty grim over the first 32 games, that does not guarantee those same results will repeat themselves over the next 130. As terrible as they've been, they still rank 5th in the NL in wins. It could be much much worse. DJ has transformed the Reds into a pitching juggernaut not seen since the days of Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, yet they are still only 12th in the NL in wins So it goes. Counting stat. The Brewers have played more games then anyone else other than the Dodgers. Win% they are 7th in the league (and out of the playoffs). Of course that will benefit them later. They have played four more games than the Cubs so far this year and will get a day off here and there more than them. I used a counting stat because the post I was responding to noted a number of counting stats as well. Earned runs allowed, hits allowed, walks allowed, home runs allowed, total bases allowed. Playing more games affects all those as well. For as bad as our starting pitching has been, as bad as our bullpen has been, as bad as half our lineup has been, as hard as our schedule has been & Yelich missing the last five games...we are still right in the thick of things at this still very early juncture. Sure, I'd love it if we had the best pitching staff in the league & all our batters were hitting gangbusters, but we don't, nobody does, we are due for a good deal of positive regression & have hung in the race despite all the bad fortune to this point. I'd say that's a pretty huge success, all things considered.

There's no denying things have looked pretty grim over the first 32 games, that does not guarantee those same results will repeat themselves over the next 130. As terrible as they've been, they still rank 5th in the NL in wins. It could be much much worse. DJ has transformed the Reds into a pitching juggernaut not seen since the days of Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, yet they are still only 12th in the NL in wins So it goes.

Interesting they're bringing him back to pitch the day game Thursday. His only good start of 2019 came during a day game. Last year his OPS against during day games was .522 compared to .664 in night games. Granted we're talking about super small, noisy samples all around but maybe there is something there with Freddy's fastball deception that plays up during the day.

Villar MKE 266/335/413 (96 OPS+) Villar BAL 260/333/396 (100 OPS+)

Who is Smith? If Who is Smith, then Smith is a first baseman.

Blackmon, Murphy, Dahl, McMahon, Tapia & Wolters gives COL six out of twelve batters that are lefty, guessing that is the only reason Hart got the call. If Perdomo gets his command straightened out he is probably the only potential impact lefty in the system currently with a shot at MLB this year.

Jackson is an easy guy to root for with his circuitous journey around the baseball world. Really hope he figured some stuff out over in Japan & can be another nugget mined by Stearns & company.

Haven't seen it mentioned yet so, Twin Peaks. First two seasons are on Netflix currently. The first season might be one of the greatest seasons of television ever. Second season gets a little uneven since Lynch kinda checked out for awhile after the network made him reveal the killer, but he came back at the end & closed things out perfectly to set things up for... Twin Peaks: The Return, which I hesitate to even call TV. It's more like an 18 hour film that was split into episodes out of necessity. Even though it's been almost two years since it aired, it still manages to work it's way into my head with regularity.

Such a risk taker you are. There are fates worse than death.

The difference in our team ERAs at this point are driven almost entirely by an unsustainably high (1.76, 3rd worst in MLB) HR9 in our case & an unsustainably low (0.79, best in MLB) HR9 for the Reds. Neither team had pitched 250 innings prior to today's game, over a sample that small HR9 is extremely noisy, extreme outliers will almost inevitably regress towards the mean as the season goes on. HR9+ compares a team's HR9 rate to league average. Over the last two seasons the team HR9+ ranges have been between 77-129 & 78-127. At this early juncture they are still between 60 at the bottom (Reds) & 183 at the top (Orioles). Brewers are at 134 currently. That the range is still so much wider than the standard spread demonstrated over previous completed seasons speaks directly to how noisy HR9 still is at this point. If the Reds allow 162 fewer HR than the Brewers & finish the season with a team ERA 2 runs better, I will drink a Budweiser Light.

If that's what the front office thinks is the best course of action, I've got no problem with it. As much as I would've loved for Peralta, Burnes & Woodruff to each make 25-30 starts & throw 150ish innings this year all while the team stayed competitive in an improved National League, that was always a longshot. Woodruff made a case last night to stay in the rotation. He needs to work on pitch count and being more efficient, but I don't think he's getting taken out of the rotation yet. Agreed. I personally would keep starting Woodruff for the time being. As the oldest of the three & with the deepest repertoire at this point, I think he probably always had the best chance of lasting the whole season in the rotation.

If that's what the front office thinks is the best course of action, I've got no problem with it. As much as I would've loved for Peralta, Burnes & Woodruff to each make 25-30 starts & throw 150ish innings this year all while the team stayed competitive in an improved National League, that was always a longshot.

Still super early obviously, but I was looking at some minors numbers today & noticed that in addition to those mentioned by 1500 that Feliciano, Segovia & Coca are off to pretty encouraging starts so far too. Lutz on the other hand, oof. Didn't he start slow last year too then turn it on as the season went on, or am I misremembering?

Nice to see Clayton Andrews getting on the mound for the first time this year, even if the game result wasn't the best. Three of his four outs were Ks at least.

I know it's a Friday night rain delay game, but I feel like there would be a few more comments if we had lost 10-2.

Lorenzo Cain is a very enjoyable baseball player to watch.

Nice having Moose back.

Yeah, Sheets is a really good case for illustrating just how much wins are a team based stat. Over his peak from 2002-08 he put up the 6th highest WAR (30.6) in MLB, but only won 75 of 196 starts. The five guys ahead of & below him by comparison... Halladay (37.0 WAR, 113 wins in 206 starts) 7.1 IP/GS Oswalt (36.1 WAR, 114 in 221 starts) 6.7 IP/GS Johan (34.4 WAR, 104 in 200 starts) 6.7 IP/GS Randy (32.6 WAR, 95 wins in 195 starts) 6.6 IP/GS CC (32.2 WAR, 100 wins in 221 starts) 6.7 IP/GS Benny (30.6 WAR, 75 wins in 196 starts) 6.5 IP/GS Vasquez (30.5 WAR, 86 wins in 230 starts) 6.5 IP/GS Schilling (30.0 WAR, 80 wins in 157 starts) 6.9 IP/GS Webb (29.8 WAR, 87 wins in 197 starts) 6.7 IP/GS Pedro (29.6 WAR, 82 wins in 171 starts) 6.4 IP/GS Buehrle (28.4 WAR, 102 wins in 233 starts) 6.8 IP/GS Clemens is the first guy on the leaderboard (16th, 25.5 WAR) with fewer wins (74) than Sheets, but Roger only made 163 starts to Benny's 196. To find a guy with a comparable number of starts & fewer wins you've got go down to Harang (25th, 20.6 WAR) with 69 wins in 188 starts.

When we opened the season 7-1 we weren't suddenly a .875 winning percentage true talent level team. In the 18 games since we have gone 6-12, we aren't suddenly a .333 winning percentage true talent level team. It's almost like the truth lies somewhere in the middle, we've known that all along & we won't find out for sure what exactly the truth is for another five months. We went 5-11 from July 7 through July 25 last year & 5-10 from August 1st to August 18th & still had the best record in the NL.

Do you anticipate this curse lasting more or less than 108 years?

Like the Angels without Trout? Yes, or the Reds.

The Diamondbacks have a better record than us and a +10 run differential compared to our -11. Sometimes bad teams post +10 run differentials over a couple dozen games. Sometimes better teams post -11 run differentials over a couple dozen games.

Chances of winning the April pennant rapidly dwindling. The Cubs caught us playing 6 games against the Marlins & Snakes. Eventually we will play some bad teams too.