Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

sveumrules

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,922

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    213

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    It's definitely been fun watching the nature of the farm itself change over the years. When I first started paying attention was when we were stocked with Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Braun, Gallardo. Once they were all up there was a lull on top end guys but we still managed to turn out guys like Lucroy, Cain & Brantley before the bottom really fell out. Recently it seems like we're having more success on the pitching side with guys like Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff & now Brown taking big jumps forward, but our ability to develop hitters is starting to look questionable.
  2. sveumrules
    I think the idea behind having a deep farm system is that not all starters & All Stars were top prospects. A lot of viable MLB players emerge from that depth. Cain, Aguilar & Shaw were three of our best players this season & none ever made a top 100 list, meanwhile, our worst player Arcia did. Arguing who has more depth or which team's is over/underrated is tricky. Intuitively we'll always think our depth is better because it's the only depth we're familiar with since there is no way any message board poster could have a comprehensive knowledge of all 30 MLB farms plus each organization's proclivity at developing said talent.
  3. sveumrules
    Bauer & Paxton were numbers 47 & 48 on the most recent FanGraphs trade value series, so probably looking at a similar package.
  4. sveumrules
    Steamer projects Donaldson for a 126 wRC+ & about 4 WAR. Steamer projects Schoop for a 97 wRC+ & about 1.5 WAR. At those rates 1/10 is about a 1.5 million overpay for Schoop.
  5. sveumrules
    Always enjoy seeing how the other NL Central farms stack up. Looks like Sickels has posted his Reds list... https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/11/21/18105597/cincinnati-reds-top-20-prospects-for-2019 While FanGraphs has published their Cardinals & Pirates lists with the rest of the NLC on deck... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-40-prospects-st-louis-cardinals/ https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-35-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/
  6. sveumrules
    Did I just hear 3% chance at the playoffs after this loss? Anyone still think even if this team somehow wins out that 9-6-1 gets us a Wild Card spot?
  7. sveumrules
    When your 2B put up below average wRC+ marks of 85 & 78 the last two seasons, average is a pretty nice upgrade.
  8. sveumrules
    League average K%, non pitchers 2016-2018 20.6%, 21.2%, 21.7% Jonathan Schoop K%, 2016-18 21.2%, 21.0%, 23.0% If Schoop would have had a league average K rate in 2018 it would have meant six more balls in play.
  9. sveumrules
    The Baseball Info Solutions blog has a pretty cool article today with GIFs comparing the range of the best/worst fielder at each OF position which includes Cain... https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2018/11/20/visualizing-the-range-of-mlbs-best-and-worst-outfielders-in-2018/ Would love it if the various defensive metrics published some sort of play log or opportunity log so we could get a better idea how all the different results are arrived at, but this is still a pretty interesting glimpse under the hood of DRS.
  10. sveumrules
    Same here. Remember pulling his #1 Draft Pick card. Cool to see that they kept it in house with Hook.
  11. sveumrules
    Agree that Dodgers seem like the best fit. Verdugo with one of their catcher prospects (Smith/Ruiz) plus another back end top 10 organizational guy of the Marlins liking probably beats anything we can offer that doesn't include Hiura or Burnes.
  12. sveumrules
    There are going to be two possible ways to acquire Realmuto. One, be the first to blink & offer up the blue chip headliner the Marlins covet. Or, B. Wait them & the rest of the catching market out. With the Rays trading for Zunino & now the Nats signing Suzuki, couples are starting to pair up & go home. Grandal & Ramos will knock two more suitors off the list eventually. If we wait long enough it might just be us & the Marlins left at the dance & maybe then they'll lower their standards instead of going home alone.
  13. sveumrules
    ...but what if he is? Then we definitely were wise to trade Brinson, Harrison, Diaz & Yamamoto for him.
  14. sveumrules
    Yelich 2013-17: 290/369/432 for a 122 wRC+ Pre-ASB 2018: 292/364/459 for a 122 wRC+ Post-ASB 2018: 367/449/790 for a 220 wRC+ One half of good old fashioned Christian Yelich plus another half of steroid Bonds added up to a final line of 326/402/598, good for a 166 wRC+. Given the Jekyll/Hyde nature of his 2018 season combined with a previous career high wRC+ of 134 then a dash of he's still only just 27 & I'd probably project him around a 140ish wRC+ for next year.
  15. sveumrules
    The organizations with more minor league depth get more prospects evaluated precisely so their depth is represented. Limiting a list to 10 or 20 spots punishes teams with more depth because the 10th or 20th best prospect in the worst system is in no way comparable to the 10th or 20th best prospect in the best system. I think it's pretty easy to buy that the Brewers are bottom ten farm at the moment. Hiura is a top 20 guy, but after that the fall off is pretty steep. Ray was a high pick & finally had a decent season though he still has major questions about his ability to make enough contact. Boom/bust potential is pretty high. After that the consensus next best guys are probably Lutz & Turang, two high school picks that are still in the low levels. A lot can go right or wrong between now & MLB. Brown had a nice year, but he is another guy that wasn't highly thought of coming out of college so he is going to have to earn it every step of the way & prove the doubters wrong.
  16. sveumrules
    Hiura was at 272/339/416 (116 wRC+) at AA last year, so only a 755 OPS there. For comparison Braun hit 303/367/589 (176 wRC+) at AA. Hiura is a great hitting prospect, but I think he's clearly a notch behind Braun at this point. Last season it looks like Baez (880), Scooter (847), Altuve (837), Merrifield (806) & Lowrie (801) were the only 2B over an 800 OPS, so if Keston can hit that mark from the get go he'll be in some pretty impressive company.
  17. sveumrules
    I guess I could see giving Shildt a 3rd place vote if you were a homer STL writer, but putting him second on your ballot for one hot month (7-7 in July, 22-6 in August, 12-15 in September) seems pretty dubious, even with the bar set as low as it is.
  18. sveumrules
    Looks like that would have been Brian Golden (LA Chapter) of the Antelope Valley Press (whatever that is) who went Snitker / Shildt / Black. Not sure if they've done this in the past & I missed it but the BBWAA website lists every voter's full ballot for each award. Kind of interesting to see who voted for who in which order. Like how about Mikako Niwa (also LA Chapter) of Sankei Sports who went Buehler / Acuña / Yoshihisa Hirano for NL ROY, leaving Soto off his ballot entirely. Or Dick Scanlon of the Lakeland Ledger (TB Chapter) who went Andujar / Joey Wendle / Ryan Yarbrough for AL ROY, skipping over Ohtani.
  19. sveumrules
    Looks like Hader got one fourth place & two fifth place votes for NL Cy Young, good enough for 7th overall. Agree that Counsell was a better candidate than Snitker, but also not surprised the writers whiffed it. I guess if he wants to win next year we'll just have to break the 2001 Mariners record & win 117 games.
  20. sveumrules
    Would love Lowrie at 2/18, but I think he gets a bigger payday than that. Zobrist got 4/56 three years ago as a 35 year old, switch hitting, mostly second baseman after posting a 274/356/419 (119 wRC+) line & 7.7 WAR in the two seasons prior to free agency. Lowrie is a 35 year old, switch hitting, mostly second baseman who has posted a 272/356/448 (122 wRC+) line & 8.5 WAR over the last two years.
  21. sveumrules
    I think Ray & one of Woodruff/Peralta plus filler could be enough to get Whit. Hiura paired with whoever is left from Peralta/Woodruff plus filler is probably enough for one of Paxton/Realmuto. After that I just don't think there is enough left in the cupboard to land that third big piece if you are intent on keeping Burnes. The more I look at trade options versus what we would need to give up, the more inclined I am to stand pat on big deals this winter. Burnes, Woodruff & Peralta are all lined up to contribute in 2019 & beyond with Hiura not far behind. For me there's a big difference between trading any of those four after winning the division versus trading guys like Brinson, Harrison & Diaz who were far riskier assets while we were in a much more uncertain position on the win curve.
  22. sveumrules
    Agree that the #22 ranking is more encouraging than it seems at face value, especially considering the recent graduations of Burnes, Woodruff & Peralta. The last FVs that they had put them around 60 million, which would've moved us up to #12. Just eyeballing it & not running the actual math it looks like trying to apply the 20-80 scale to the farm systems themselves it's maybe something like... 80 FV: SDP (50.9 future WAR) 70 FV: ATL, CHW, TBR (39.6-45.0 future WAR) 60 FV: TOR, CIN, MIN, DET (27.8-33.1 future WAR) 55 FV: HOU, LAD, PIT (22.4-23.5 future WAR) 50 FV: LAA, PHI, OAK, TEX, CLE, NYM, WAS (17.8-19.7 future WAR) 45 FV: STL, MIA, NYY, MIL, COL (14.5-16.1 future WAR) 40 FV: SFG, CHC, ARI, KCR, BAL (8.5-10.6 future WAR) 30 FV: BOS, SEA (4.8-6.1 future WAR)
  23. sveumrules
    This combines two different pitches, though. When you mix data for a 4-seam FB and a cutter, the horizontal data (and probably the vertical data too somewhat) is going to cancel itself out. Yeah, thought it was interesting that Brooks didn't classify his 4 seam & cutter separately. From what I understand they identify pitches by algorithm depending on each pitch's velo, h-movement & v-movement. If that is the case it would seem the difference between the two pitches was subtle enough to not trigger distinct classifications.
  24. sveumrules
    Movement profiles for Woodruff & Peralta fastballs per Brooks Badeball... Woodruff 2017: -4.60 Horizontal 8.13 Vertical Woodruff 2018: -5.35 Horizontal 8.17 Vertical Peralta 2018: -1.68 Horizontal 10.11 Vertical Hard to say who has "more" or "less" movement, just that it's different. One would think if Woodruff has better velocity (definitely), better command (probably) & better movement (maybe) that the results on his fastball should be better than Peralta's to this point. They haven't been. Career FB pitch values: Woodruff +3.5 Peralta +10.1
  25. sveumrules
    FanGraphs published an article today attempting to estimate prospect valuation... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ & another article using those estimates to rank the farm systems of the 30 clubs (Brewers slotted in at 22) as the Hot Stove gets ready to hopefully heat up... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/ It looks like their individual team lists will also start rolling out later this week so I thought I'd start a new thread to keep track of the various lists & rankings once they start coming out.
×
×
  • Create New...