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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    9.5 million is actually kinda cheap for a Yankees bench OF. Jacoby Ellsbury got 21 million to play zero games last year & still has over 47 million due the next two seasons.
  2. sveumrules
    Over the last three seasons the Reds have won an MLB worst 203 games with the Padres (205) & White Sox (207) not far behind, er, ahead. The main culprit has been their pitching which has accrued 9.2 WAR over those three seasons. The Marlins have 24.0 WAR in 29th place. That is a monstrous gap. If he wants a challenge he has definitely chosen the biggest one out there.
  3. sveumrules
    Recent events indicate the Brewers front office believes that salary does indeed matter. The highest paid manager in MLB makes 5 million. That doesn't even buy 1 WAR on the free agent market. That means either MLB front offices believe that (a) managers are worth less than 1 win per season (highly unlikely) or (2) that the players & managers/coaches are paid on two entirely different scales. Maybe there is a market inefficiency to be exploited there, but it doesn't appear as though the Brewers (who have actively looked to exploit as many market inefficiencies as possible under Stearns) are interested in leading the charge on taking advantage of this specific potential market inefficiency.
  4. sveumrules
    Obviously DJ feels Cincinnati is a more competent organization than Milwaukee. That should be a red flag. The Brewers have won more games than the Reds in each of the last five seasons. They are currently positioned to continue doing so for multiple seasons to come. The Reds are going to need to do a lot more than hire DJ as pitching coach to change their course.
  5. sveumrules
    Congrats to DJ on the new gig. If he truly is a miracle worker, Cincy is the spot to prove it. It would seem he is valued more by posters here than he is within the industry, otherwise you'd think he could have landed a job with a competent organization.
  6. sveumrules
    The Brewers disagree with what exactly? Are you saying you have access to their internal projections & they have Schoop down for an OPS of 662 or lower in 2019? Non tendering Schoop is certainly an option & I won't be surprised if that's the decision they ultimately make, but hopefully you'll understand if I don't just take your word for it...
  7. sveumrules
    I agree that ten million is a lot for a sub 600 OPS middle infielder, though I'd also wager a similar amount (had I won the recent Mega Millions drawing or been born a Rothschild) that Schoop will post an OPS in 2019 much closer to the 747 mark he posted in 2500+ PAs with Baltimore than the 577 mark he posted in 134 PAs with the Brewers.
  8. sveumrules
    My original statement was not presented as fact (thus the "or at the very least, a much easier to measure" parenthetical aside). And even once someone is hired to replace Coles, and the entire 2019 season has been played & the stats are final, it will be impossible to tell if our holdovers from 2018 performed better or worse because of a change in skill level, regression to the mean, coaching, luck, injury, issues in their personal life, or any of a number of factors that could possibly contribute. Conversely, if we trade for Whit Merrifield (or Hiura gets called up & rakes) it will be a lot easier to tell why our 2B wRC+ went from 78 in 2018 to 115 (hypothetically) in 2019.
  9. sveumrules
    I think that is an opinion. That would not be measurable, especially before it even happens. Brewer wRC+ by position 2017/2018 C: 84/76 1B: 132/128 2B: 85/78 SS: 95/63 3B: 116/111 LF: 90/132 CF: 82/125 RF: 125/115 The positions where we made the two biggest gains (CF/LF) are the positions where we added the two best players. The easiest way to improve the offense is to get better players.
  10. sveumrules
    If we can somehow add one or two more high OBP/contact guys this offseason it will have a much greater (or at the very least, a much easier to measure) impact than whomsoever we hire as hitting coach.
  11. sveumrules
    Yelich probably would have won in the old days because he was the best hitter, will be interesting to see now that defensive stats make up part of the vote... Dickerson | 1057 Innings +16 DRS +8.6 UZR Duvall | 766 innings +17 DRS +6.6 UZR Yelich | 596 innings 0 DRS -2.2 UZR (in LF only) Yelich | 1269 innings +3 DRS +0.6 UZR (all three OF spots)
  12. sveumrules
    What if Coles was already preaching these things but the hitters either weren't listening or were not skilled enough to execute them?
  13. sveumrules
    Hard for me to blame Coles for Arcia when it took sending him down to AAA for him to consider changing his obviously exploitable approach. Shaw had a 121 OPS+ in 2017 compared to 119 in 2018. That's a pretty small degree. Pina posted a 94 OPS+ as a 30 year old getting his first significant playing time in 2017. He posted an 87 mark in 2018. That's just standard regression for an old guy that needed forever to even get a chance in the first place. Coles seemed to be doing fine with Domingo when he went form a 108 OPS+ in 2016 to a 126 mark in 2017. What did Coles do differently to cause Santana to lose all his power? Thames was insanely streaky in 2017. He was streaky & hurt in 2018. Again this is a guy who had to leave MLB, completely relearn how to hit in an inferior league, then come back. Overall I'd say he's done about as expected. Braun has had the same swing since he was in high school. His OPS+ went from 111 in 2017 to 107 in 2018. He also was the 11th "unluckiest" batter this season per StatCast. Based on quality of contact his expected AVG/SLG should have been 294/518 instead of the 254/469 he ended up at. Based on quality of contact he was actually better in 2018 than 217. SoCal Brew Crew Fan pretty much hit the nail on the head for me...
  14. sveumrules
    Wow, this couldn't possibly be lazier. Actually yes it could, you could say "well...I've only ever seen him throw 2 pitches so.....". But come on man. Every scouting report that exists says that Burnes throws 4 pitches. Throwing four pitches in the minor leagues is much different than throwing four pitches in the Major Leagues. When Burnes has pitched a full season deploying all four pitches with success against Major League hitters I will consider him a four pitch pitcher. If the curve or change up were currently as good as the slider, I believe they would have been thrown more even in relief. If Corbin starts next year, pitches 175 innings & throws 50% fastballs, 30% sliders, 10% curveballs & 10% change ups, would you consider that a four pitch pitcher? Because to me, that still looks like effectively a two pitch guy. Even if 10% usage is enough, there were only 15 qualified starters this season who had four pitches each at 10% usage or higher, so the four pitch pitcher appears to be pretty rare at this point.
  15. sveumrules
    Burnes threw 58.7% fastballs, 34.2% sliders & 6.8% curves this year in MLB, so yes, essentially a two pitch pitcher.
  16. sveumrules
    Lots of people were dubious of Shaw when he was first acquired because he had absolutely tanked the 2nd half of 2016 with Boston. Turned out it was predictive of absolutely nothing. Aguilar had a 114 OPS+ in 2017, a 170 OPS+ in the 1st half of 2018 & a 108 OPS+ in the 2nd half of 2018. His career OPS+ is 120 & that probably serves as a pretty decent baseline for any 2019 expectations. As for what Stearns must do this offseason the most important is probably to breathe. It all starts there.
  17. sveumrules
    Even if we lose today all we have to do is win two games in a row at home to go to the World Series. We won two games in a row at home on 16 different occasions this year.
  18. sveumrules
    Granted it was only five games, but Manny was behind the dish every time Gio started this season. You know the season is nearing peak insanity when there is a possibility for some "Why isn't Kratz starting?!?" posts to pop up.
  19. sveumrules
    David Samson saying "MLB is going to do anything they can to have the Dodgers beat the Brewers" gives me confidence that the opposite will occur.
  20. sveumrules
    Each of the last 17 World Series has featured a team that didn't even make the playoffs during the prior season. The Brewers are the only team left that was not in the playoffs last year.
  21. sveumrules
    I had a 20 pack with some friends for a few years back around 2008. The main reason we got it was because we went to a bunch of games already anyway, the team was on its way up & we wanted to be guaranteed postseason tickets when they finally broke through. We cancelled after 2009 mainly because the only real benefit was the potential postseason carrot in the fall. With how easy & cheap tickets were on the secondary market, the hassle of selling certain games (we were terrace box so not a ton of resale value anyway, especially cuz the Cubs still sucked) or missing/switching games because you had to lock in dates ahead of time just wasn't worth it anymore. Macha didn't help either. All that to say, people that pony up for any package have been the backbone of the team's success in the attendance department over the last decade plus & I hope they are thouroughly enjoying finally getting their carrot this year. Whether that means eating it themself or selling it to another hungry individual, I could not care less.
  22. sveumrules
    Wade Miley allowed a wOBA of .283 this year versus an expected wOBA of .302 per Statcast. His differential of -.019 made him one of the 40 "luckiest" pitchers in baseball this year, minimun 250 PAs against. How much of that "luck" was due to defense, shifting, random variation, etc is impossible to really tell. Other Brewer pitchers who were "lucky" this year by producing an actual wOBA lower than their expected wOBA included Hader (-.011), Anderson (-.012), Peralta (-.015), Jeffress (-.025), Chacin (-.029) & Burnes (-.045). Corbin's mark of -.045 was actually 7th "luckiest" out of 438 pitchers with at least 150 PAs against this season.
  23. sveumrules
    Haha. I found it long ago, on a dark corner of the internet. I'm not at liberty to say any more.
  24. sveumrules
    Obligatory reminder that Kratz has caught each of Miley's last 12 starts & thus will in all likelihood get the start today.
  25. sveumrules
    Thanks for the info, Eye Black. Glad they changed that & clearly missed that they did.
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